Many of the Major League Baseball players signed to new contracts this offseason have been worth every penny and then some two months into the 2024 campaign.

Others...

Well...

Not so much.

We're putting a new spin on an old faithful topic here. Rather than including the likes of Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon and Giancarlo Stanton whose groan-inducing contracts you've been reading about for several years at this point, we're only looking at contracts/terms agree upon since the end of last season.

What qualifies:

• Players signed to new contracts in free agency (i.e. Shohei Ohtani)
• Players signed to new extensions this past offseason (i.e. Bobby Witt Jr.)
• Players who had a club option exercised (i.e. Charlie Morton)

What doesn't qualify:

• Players who are still arbitration-eligible (i.e. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.)
• Players on contracts that began prior to this season (i.e. Mike Trout)
• Players who exercised a player option (i.e. Javier Báez)
• Players who previously signed extensions that didn't go into effect until this season (i.e. Ian Happ)

Basically, if the team chose to (re)invest in the player this past offseason, it counts.

Beyond that, it also needs to have been a substantial, eight-figure investment. Because while the Rangers might regret exercising their club option on José Leclerc and the Angels may wish they hadn't re-signed Matt Moore, those $6.25M and $9M contracts, respectively, hardly qualify as busts.

Players are ranked in ascending order of how disappointing they have been.

The (Thus Far) Fully Sunk Costs

Alex Cobb, RHP, San Francisco Giants ($10M club option exercised)

Tommy Edman, UTIL, St. Louis Cardinals (2-year, $16.5M extension)

Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers (2 years, $17.5M)

Germán Márquez, RHP, Colorado Rockies (2-year, $20M extension)

Tyler Mahle, RHP, Texas Rangers (2 years, $22M)

Robert Stephenson, RHP, Los Angeles Angels (3 years, $33M)

Lucas Giolito, RHP, Boston Red Sox (2 years, $38.5M)

These seven players are in a tier of their own, yet to play in 2024 and thereby providing no return on investment whatsoever.

(That said, their collective 0.0 WAR is better than most of the list.)

Some of the injuries were already known. Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery in October and isn't expected to pitch in 2024. Both Mahle and Márquez had Tommy John surgeries in mid-May 2023 and aren't expected back until at least the All-Star Break. With all three, the team made a multi-season investment, hoping it pays off in the long run.

Stephenson and Giolito, on the other hand, suffered season-ending injuries after signing their contracts and before making their regular-season debuts in new threads.

Cobb originally landed on the IL after undergoing hip surgery in November, but now his rehab has been delayed by shoulder soreness. Still no ETA on his 2024 debut.

Edman had wrist surgery in October and was expected to be a full go for spring training, but he kept getting shut down because of lingering pain in that wrist. He has yet to embark upon a rehab assignment, and the Cardinals' situation in center field has been a complete disaster without him.

10. Jorge Soler, DH, San Francisco Giants

Investment: 3 years, $42 million

Return: .215/.302/.383, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 0.1 bWAR

Jorge Soler hasn't been the least successful of San Francisco's offseason pickups, but he also hasn't even remotely delivered the goods.

At this time last year, Soler had a .910 OPS and 17 home runs, trailing only Pete Alonso's 20 for the most in the majors. He eventually cooled off and ended up missing 25 games, but he finished with 36 homers as Miami's best source of dingers, by far.

However, San Francisco has thus far gotten the much less productive version of this historically streaky slugger.

In addition to last year's success, Soler hit 48 home runs in 2019 and helped lead Atlanta to its World Series title in 2021. But he slugged .400 in 2022, was slugging .370 in 2021 prior to getting traded from Kansas City to Atlanta and is hanging out in that same vicinity after two months.

The Giants have bounced Soler all over the lineup, trying to find anything that works. When he came back from a brief stint on the IL earlier this month, they even put him in the leadoff spot—A.K.A. the Kyle Schwarber experiment—for a few games before dropping him back down into the middle of the order.

So far, though, it hasn't changed anything.

Maybe he'll snap out of his slow start soon.

9. Josh Hader, LHP, Houston Astros

Investment: 5 years, $95 million

Return: 3-3, 7 saves, 23.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 14.5 K/9, 0.2 bWAR

Now that a team has invested nearly nine figures in his lethal left arm, gone are the days of Josh Hader refusing to record more than three outs. He had a four-out save earlier this month, as well as three instances in the past four weeks in which he recorded a win by pitching both the ninth and tenth innings.

Are the Astros getting what they paid for, though?

During their horrific 7-19 start to the season, Hader had a line of 9.2 IP, 11 H, 9 ER, 5 BB, 16 K, recording just two saves in 11 appearances. (In fairness, he only blew one save, as there simply weren't many leads to protect early in the year.)

Had we done this exercise one month into the season, he might have been No. 1 on the list.

Hader has been much, much better as of late, allowing just one earned run in the past 30 days. Still, it was not the start they imagined when making that large investment, and it remains up in the air whether they'll be able to climb all the way out of the early hole they dug for themselves.

Also up in the air is how well his arm holds up with the reintroduction of these multi-inning appearances. He had gone four or more outs in an appearance just once in the previous four years, doing so in August 2020. It became a bit of an "all hands on deck" situation for Houston after that rough start, but let's check back in September to see if these six-out appearances in May were worth it.

8. Mitch Garver, DH, Seattle Mariners

Investment: 2 years, $24 million

Return: .179/.280/.331, 5 HR, 14 RBI, -0.5 bWAR

In his previous seven seasons in the majors, the oft-injured Mitch Garver had never come close to playing enough to qualify for a batting title, maxing out at 359 plate appearances in 2019.

From that perspective, Seattle has to be pleasantly surprised that he is on pace for around 520 plate appearances one-third of the way through this campaign.

Unfortunately, he isn't accomplishing much of anything in all those trips to the dish.

Garver is far from the only struggling member of Seattle's lineup. His .611 OPS is rough, but he is right there with J.P. Crawford (.638), Mitch Haniger (.635), Julio Rodríguez (.606) and Jorge Polanco (.588) in the club of M's regularly in the lineup with a sub-.640 OPS.

But where's the Garver who slugged .500 for the World Series champs last season?

The Garver who had an .854 OPS over the previous half-decade, almost always hitting well when healthy?

He hit cleanup for the M's on Opening Day, proof that they were banking on him to fill the void of losing what Teoscar Hernández did for this team in 2023. Now, though, Garver is frequently batting in the 7-hole for an offense that ranks among the lowest scoring in the majors.

If this slugger doesn't start slugging soon, Seattle may well lose its grip on first place in the AL West.

7. Hunter Renfroe, RF, Kansas City Royals

Investment: 2 years, $13 million

Return: .164/.243/.291, 4 HR, 19 RBI, -0.7 bWAR

Here's the two-pronged, glass-half-full view on Hunter Renfroe:

1. Even by Kansas City's small-market standards, he isn't that expensive. Every other player on this list has a 2024 salary north of $10M, so the fact that Renfroe's price tag is merely $13M spread across two seasons kept him from being legitimately considered as one of the five biggest busts.
2. His luck on batted balls has been almost impossibly bad and should turn around eventually. Renfroe entered play Saturday with a .173 BABIP, which was the worst such mark among all players with at least 100 plate appearances this season. It was also more than 100 points worse than what his BABIP had been over the previous three seasons.

All the same, he has become virtually unplayable for a team that doesn't exactly have any other options.

Between Renfroe, MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel and Nelson Velázquez, Kansas City's OF/DH situation is a nightmare, collectively batting below the Mendoza Line. The whole reason they signed Renfroe was in the hope of providing some sort of spark to what was a woeful position group last season.

Instead, Renfroe has dragged the Royals outfield further into the abyss, and it is simply mystifying that the team has been so successful thus far in spite of his struggles.

And here's some glass-half-empty news: Renfroe's salary will increase by more than 36 percent in 2025, assuming he exercises his $7.5M player option.

6. Kenta Maeda, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Investment: 2 years, $24 million

Return: 2-1, 35.2 IP, 5.80 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, -0.4 bWAR

Kenta Maeda did pitch five shutout innings Friday in picking up his second win of the season.

That merely saved him from a spot in the top five, though.

It's hard to blame the Tigers for wanting to invest in Maeda, if only to prevent him from facing their batters again.

He had made seven starts against Detroit since the beginning of 2021, putting together a 2.41 ERA and a 10.6 K/9. If he could pitch like that for the Tigers instead of against them, $24M for two seasons would be a colossal bargain.

Unfortunately, they've gotten an even worse version of the Maeda who otherwise had a 4.88 ERA over the past three years.

They also got the version who can't stay healthy.

Maeda missed the final month of 2021 and all of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He also spent two months on the IL with a triceps injury in 2023. They had to know the 36-year-old was likely to spend some time on the IL, which he already has. Maeda missed a few weeks with an undisclosed illness, just returning to the mound this weekend.

Beyond that, his strikeout rate is way down and his home run allowed rate is way up. In fact, after averaging 8.0 strikeouts per home run across his first seven seasons in the majors, he's at 2.6 through seven starts with the Tigers. Among the 144 pitchers who had logged at least 30 innings pitched through the start of play Friday, that's the worst K/HR ratio.

5. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Investment: 1 year, $10.5 million

Return: 0-3, 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 16.5 K/9, -0.5 bWAR

Minimizing walks has been a consistent issue for flame-throwing Aroldis Chapman, especially in recent years.

He finished at 6.1 BB/9 in 2021 and was even worse at 6.9 in 2022. And though he got that down a tad to 5.6 last season, he was all over the place toward the end of the year with the Rangers, tallying 11 walks and three wild pitches in his final 11 innings of the regular season.

That lack of control has gotten much, much worse in Pittsburgh.

After an appearance Wednesday in which he walked all three batters he faced, Chapman was up to 20 walks (and a pair of wild pitches) through his first 15.2 innings of work.

That's after a great start to the year, too. Chapman went 4.1 hitless innings in his first six appearances, walking just one batter. So, we're talking 19 walks in his next 11.1 innings, which is a BB/9 of 15.1.

Yikes.

It's still entirely unclear why the Pirates wanted to make Chapman their highest paid player in the first place, considering they already had David Bednar cemented at closer. Whatever they had in mind, though, it hasn't come to fruition. And at this point, recouping anything via trade might not even be feasible.

4. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Investment: 1 year, $25 million, plus a $20M-$25M vesting player option for 2025

Return: 2-2, 34.1 IP, 4.98 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, -0.1 bWAR

After three consecutive years with a sub-4.00 ERA and after playing a massive role in getting the Texas Rangers to the 2023 World Series, the consensus expectation was that Jordan Montgomery would fetch something in the vicinity of a six-year, $150 million deal in free agency.

Despite waiting until the end of spring training to sign, that nine-figure deal never transpired. He instead settled for a short-term contract—before giving agent Scott Boras the boot—in hopes of better offers in free agency next winter.

He'll need to start pitching better in order for that to happen, though.

What's concerning thus far is the whiff rate on his curveball.

Monty wasn't much of a strikeout artist in the first place, averaging just under 8.0 K/9 between the 2022-23 seasons. He at least used to be able to make guys miss his curveball on a regular basis, though, generating a whiff rate north of 37 percent on that pitch in each of the past three years.

That curveball whiff rate is sitting at just 19.3 percent through six starts, and his average velocity (on all pitches) is down nearly 2 MPH from where it was last season.

We're not throwing in the 2024 towel on Montgomery just yet. He did get a late start to the year, and if you take out the rough start against the mighty Dodgers, his ERA drops to a much more respectable 3.73.

All the same, not the dream rotation the reigning NLCS champions had in mind.

3. Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B, Cincinnati Reds

Investment: 3 years, $45 million

Return: .220/.295/.412, 5 HR, 19 RBI, -0.2 bWAR

Jeimer Candelario's first contract year (2022) was a bust. After impressive showings in 2020 and 2021, he had a .633 OPS and played sparingly over the final month for a Tigers team that finished 30 games below .500. He ended up making less in free agency ($5M flyer with the Nationals) than he did in his final year of arbitration eligibility ($5.8M).

After bouncing back in a big way through the first four-plus months of 2023, he has reverted to 2022 form—much to Cincinnati's chagrin.

He's striking out more than usual, walking less than usual and generally not making great contact when he does hit the ball. Both his expected batting average (.212) and expected slugging percentage (.345) are even worse than his already poor numbers, and he is repeatedly made to look foolish by breaking pitches, against which he has a .104 batting average.

Even when he does homer, they haven't mattered. All five of Candy's dingers have been solo shots in games the Reds lost.

Candelario is also struggling on defense, particularly when tasked with manning first base—which has been happening more regularly since Cincinnati lost Christian Encarnacion-Strand to a broken wrist earlier this month.

He is nowhere near the only reason the Reds have struggled, but he and closer Alexis Díaz have been the biggest disappointments on this last-place roster.

2. Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Chicago Cubs

Investment: $16.5M club option exercised

Return: 0-4, 32.2 IP, 10.47 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, -1.5 bWAR

The Chicago Cubs hit the free agency jackpot with Shota Imanaga. The NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner and Cy Young candidate is making just $10M this season and will have an average salary of $16M from 2024-28 if (and when) the Cubs exercise their club option on him after next season.

The apparent cost of winning that jackpot, however, was retaining Kyle Hendricks for $16.5M.

Hendricks was phenomenal for that curse-breaking squad in 2016. He led the majors in ERA (2.13) during the regular season, and then had a 1.42 ERA in five postseason starts.

That version of Hendricks hasn't been seen in quite some time, though. He had a cumulative 4.43 ERA from 2021-23, missing the latter half of 2022 and the first two months of 2023 with a shoulder injury.

He did make 12 quality starts last season in spite of the delayed start, but it was perhaps mostly in deference to what he did for the franchise eight years ago that they brought him back for this season.

To put it lightly, it hasn't gone well. Hendricks has been to 2024 what Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright were to 2023, unable to reharness what he used to be.

For basically the same cost, Chicago could have paid Hendricks' $1.5M buyout and signed any of Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Kyle Gibson or Nick Martinez, all of whom have been at or above replacement level.

Instead, they kept their former ace, who was recently demoted to a relief role after yet another dud of a start.

1. Blake Snell, LHP, San Francisco Giants

Investment: 2 years, $62 million

Return: 0-3, 15.0 IP, 11.40 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, -0.9 bWAR

The year after winning his first Cy Young award in 2018, Blake Snell had—what was until these past two months—the least productive / most unlucky season of his career. He had a 4.29 ERA and missed nearly two months with an elbow injury, giving the Rays a barely-above-replacement-level campaign.

The way things have gone thus far after winning his second Cy Young award, though, the Giants would kill for a 4.29 ERA.

After not agreeing to a contract until a few weeks into spring training, Snell's first start with the Giants didn't come until the team's 11th game.

Less than two weeks later, he was on the IL with an adductor strain, having taken the loss in each of his first three starts.

He returned to the mound Wednesday after more than a month on the shelf...and promptly imploded in the fourth inning against the Pirates, allowing four earned runs while maintaining an ERA north of 11.

Despite his struggles and limited availability, the Giants are in the early mix for a wild card spot. And if Snell turns things around and they make the playoffs, these pre-Memorial Day woes will be quickly forgotten.

What if he doesn't rally, though?

His $62M contract is broken down as a $15M salary this season, plus a $17M signing bonus that will be paid in January 2026. (For payroll/tax purposes, that signing bonus counts as $8.5M this season and $8.5M next season.) The other $30M is a player option for 2025, which we all expected two months ago would be declined in re-pursuit of the massive deal that never came this past winter.

If the next four months are even remotely as disappointing as the first two, though, the Giants might get stuck holding that bag, hoping Snell didn't use up the last of his magic in 2023.