Bengals QB Joe Burrow Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Realistic Expectations for Joe Burrow, Other NFL Stars Returning from Injury in 2024

Kristopher Knox

The NFL is a league defined by its biggest stars, and NFL games are far more enjoyable when the best players are on the field.

Unfortunately, the 2023 season featured far too many games that lacked star power because of injuries. The list of notable players who had their seasons ended prematurely included standouts like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones and Deshaun Watson—and that's just at quarterback.

Ideally, the NFL's best and brightest will all be on the field at the start of the 2024 season or shortly thereafter. However, there's no guarantee that all of the league's injured stars will immediately return to form.

Here, we'll lay out some realistic 2024 expectations for the NFL's biggest injured stars.

Specifically, we'll examine players who have made at least one Pro Bowl over the past three seasons and who finished the 2023 season on injured reserve or out of the lineup for multiple games. Factors like the specifics of each injury,past production and supporting cast were all considered.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

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Despite finishing two of his four NFL seasons on injured reserve, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has already appeared in one Pro Bowl, two AFC title games and one Super Bowl.

Burrow, who suffered a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11, is among the league's elite QBs when healthy. Though he isn't back to 100 percent just yet, Burrow believes that he'll be able to properly prepare for the 2024 season.

"It's been a tough several months, but physically it's not the worst injury that I've had," Burrow said, per ESPN's Ben Baby. "...I've been able to really lift and continue my offseason program kind of the way that it always has been."

Assuming Burrow is fully healthy in time for the preseason—he battled a calf injury last preseason—he should return to the Pro Bowl form he last showed in 2022. However, his numbers might not be quite as impressive as they were that season (4,475 yards, 35 TDs, 12 INTs, 100.8 QB rating).

The Bengals parted with a few key pieces this offseason, including receiver Tyler Boyd, running back Joe Mixon and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan—who was hired to be the Tennessee Titans' head coach.

There could be a period of adjustment for Burrow, though it'll be a surprise if he doesn't push Cincinnati back into playoff contention.

Stat Projection: 17 Starts, 4,240 passing yards, 29 Tds, 11 INTs, 98.8 QB Rating

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

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While Watson hasn't really performed like a star since joining the Cleveland Browns, running back Nick Chubb has been a highlight-reel creator since he first stepped on the field. Arguably the best pure runner in the NFL, Chubb topped 1,100 scrimmage yards as a 2018 rookie and made the Pro Bowl in each of the next four seasons.

However, a devastating knee injury that included multiple torn ligaments and required multiple surgeries ended his 2023 campaign in Week 2. The Browns aren't going to rush Chubb back onto the playing field.

"We are going to be conservative in terms of our approach in our assessment with building the roster because he is coming off of a major knee injury," general manager Andrew Berry told reporters at the annual league meeting in March.

Cleveland has a good amount of backfield depth after adding D'Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines to a room that already included Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong Jr. Ford replaced Chubb as the starter last season and tallied 1,132 scrimmage yards.

Chubb may not be ready to go at the start of the regular season, and the Browns probably won't thrust him into the every-down role once he is ready to play. In the past, head coach Kevin Stefnaski has rarely overworked Chubb, who has topped 300 carries only once as a pro.

Expect Chubb to be a part-time player in 2024, though he should still be able to make a late-season impact.

Stat Projection: 8 Starts, 749 Rushing Yards, 4.9 YPC Average, 16 Receptions, 131 receiving yards, 7 TDs

Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons

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Kirk Cousins' Vikings career ended with a torn Achilles in 8. However, the Atlanta Falcons were confident enough in his ability to recovery that they inked him to a four-year, $180 million deal at the start of free agency.

However, Atlanta wasn't confident enough in Cousins' long-term outlook to pass on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick.

Penix's presence shouldn't be a threat to Cousins in 2024, as long as the veteran gets and stays healthy.

"We know that (Cousins is) going to take advantage of anything he can do to get himself ready to go in and peak condition," general manager Terry Fontenot said, via the team's official website.

Will Cousins return to the Pro Bowl form he last showed in 2022? Falcons fans probably shouldn't count on it. While Atlanta has some very capable offensive contributors in Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson, they have questionable receiver depth and lack a truly elite pass-catcher in the mold of Justin Jefferson.

The Falcons also have a stout ground game and a solid defense and shouldn't ask Cousins to carry the team, as he regularly did in Minnesota. Of course, Cousins won't need gaudy numbers to better Atlanta's QB situation and make it a legitimate threat in the NFC South.

Stat Projection: 14 Starts, 3,615 Passing Yards, 25 TDs, 9 INTs, 94.8 QB Rating

Trevon Diggs, CB, Dallas Cowboys

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

In just four seasons, Dallas Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs has recorded 18 interceptions, earned one first-team All-Pro nod and made two Pro Bowls. However, a torn ACL in practice ended his 2023 campaign after only two games.

According to Michael Geklken of the Dallas Morning News, Diggs is expected to be healthy in time for training camp.

Will Diggs return to the Pro Bowl in 2024? That may hinge entirely on his interception production. The 25-year-old has always been a risk-reward defensive back. In 2021, for example, he led the NFL with 11 interceptions but also surrendered 907 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

Some of Diggs' interception opportunities may now go to DaRon Bland, who replaced Diggs as Dallas' No. 1 corner and finished the 2023 season with a league-high nine interceptions and five pick-sixes.

Bland allowed an opposing passer rating of just 60.8, only slightly higher than the rating Diggs allowed (55.8) during his All-Pro campaign.

If the Cowboys are at all cautious with Diggs' recovery—and they should be—they may work him back into the starting lineup slowly and allow Bland to cover opposing No. 1 receivers.

Diggs should return to being a dependable starter in 2024, though he may not be the most productive defensive back on his own team.

Stat Projection: 13 Starts, 55 Tackles, 15 Passes Defended, 4 INTs, 78.8 Opposing Passer Rating

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert exploded on the NFL scene, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020, making the Pro Bowl in 2021 and starting his first playoff game in 2022.

However, Herbert had an underwhelming 2023 campaign before landing on injured reserve with a fractured finger after Week 14. While dealing with injuries to wide receiver Mike Williams (torn ACL) and running back Austin Ekeler (ankle), Herbert produced career lows in passing yards (3,134) and touchdowns (20) while tying his career low for passer rating (93.2).

The finger injury shouldn't be a long-term concern for Herbert, but that doesn't mean he'll put up the sort of numbers he did in 2021 (5,015 yards, 38 TDs, 97.7 QB rating).

Williams, Ekeler and Keenan Allen are all gone, and new head coach Jim Harbaugh has a history of leaning on defense and the running game. Fans should expect a much more balanced team than they saw under former head coach Brandon Staley.

That said, players like Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, J.K. Dobbins and rookie Ladd McConkey should give Herbert a solid supporting cast. And with rookie tackle Joe Alt forming a bookend tackle duo with Rashawn Slater, Herbert should experience the best protection of his career.

Expect Herbert to be a functional and efficient starter, even if he takes a step back in terms of raw numbers.

Stat Prediction: 17 Starts, 4,166 Passing Yards, 25 TDs, 8 INTs, 100.1 QB Rating

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings

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Tight end T.J. Hockenson made his first Pro Bowl in 2020 with the Detroit Lions and his second in 2022 after being traded to the Minnesota Vikings. His third shot at a Pro Bowl may not come until 2025 at the earliest.

Hockenson suffered a knee injury that required ACL and MCL surgeries in late December. Because of his MCL rehab, Hockenson didn't undergo ACL surgery until late January. That timeline makes a Week 1 return unlikely, even with Hockenson's recovery reportedly going well.

"Hockenson is ahead of schedule in his rehab, but the Vikings are committed to ensuring he is fully healthy before he plays," The Athletic's Alec Lewis wrote on May 2.

Expect the Vikings to lean on some combination of Josh Oliver, Johnny Mundt and Nick Muse until Hockenson is back to 100 percent.

While Hockenson will still benefit from playing alongside Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison upon his return, he'll also be playing with either Sam Darnold or rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy at quarterback.

And with running back Aaron Jones now in the fold, the Vikings shouldn't be as pass-heavy as they were a year ago.

Fans can expect to see Hockenson back on the field this season, even if he misses the first few weeks. However, they shouldn't expect the sort of numbers needed to earn Hockenson heavy Pro Bowl consideration.

Stat Projection: 12 Starts, 60 Receptions, 575 Receiving Yards, 4 TDs

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers

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Running back Josh Jacobs didn't finish the year on injured reserve, but he did miss the Las Vegas Raiders' final four games with a significant quad injury. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported in January that Jacobs was dealing with "two deep bone contusions that have restricted his range of motion."

According to Pelissero, though, Jacobs was expected to be healthy by the start of free agency. He was healthy enough, at least, for the Green Bay Packers to sign him to a four-year, $48 million contract.

It's entirely fair for Packers fans to wonder what that money will provide. Jacobs was the league-leader in both rushing and scrimmage yards in 2022 but then faded in a big way last season.

Jacobs averaged just 3.5 yards per carry in 2023 while recording the lowest yardage totals of his career.

In Green Bay, though, Jacobs shouldn't be asked to carry the offense or overworked as he often was in Las Vegas. Budding star quarterback Jordan Love is the centerpiece, and Green Bay can spell Jacobs with AJ Dillon and rookie MarShawn Lloyd.

A slightly reduced workload should allow Jacobs to continue his trend of alternating between Pro Bowl campaigns with not-so-great seasons. For Packers fans, that means a "good" season should be incoming.

Stat Projection: 15 Starts, 1,110 Rushing Yards, 4.3 YPC Average, 40 Receptions, 296 Receiving Yards, 10 TDs

Matthew Judon, Edge, New England Patriots

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Pass-rusher Matthew Judon earned two Pro Bowl nods with the Baltimore Ravens and another two after joining the New England Patriots in 2021. With four sacks in four games, the 31-year-old was on pace for another Pro Bowl campaign in 2023 before suffering a torn biceps.

Judon believes he is "back 100 percent" and is eager to make his presence felt in 2024.

"I'm out for a vendetta," Judon told The Money Down podcast (h/t NFL.com's Bobby Kownack).

Judon's injury occurred on October 1, so he'll have nearly a full year between it and Week 1. He should also have a very good chance to replicate the Pro Bowl numbers he had in 2022 (15.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss).

The Patriots defense ranked seventh overall in 2023 despite getting very little help from the offense—it ranked 31st in scoring. With players like Jacoby Brissett, Drake Maye, Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker entering the equation, New England's offense should be more productive this season.

Theoretically, that'll mean more passing by the opposition and more opportunities for Judon to get after opposing quarterbacks. New head coach DeMeco Ryans and new defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington were both internal hires and know how to get the most out of Judon, so a return to form feels likely.

Stat Projection: 17 Starts, 60 Tackles, 14.5 Sacks, 16 Tackles for Loss, 2 Forced Fumbles

Matt Milano, LB, Buffalo Bills

Michael Owens/Getty Images

Linebacker Matt Milano was playmaker for the Buffalo Bills long before he earned his well-deserved first Pro Bowl and first-team All-Pro nods in 2022. In 2021, for example, he racked up 86 total tackles, three sacks and five passes defended while allowing an opposing passer rating of only 71.9 in coverage.

Unfortunately, Milano didn't get a chance to earn back-to-back Pro Bowl recognition, as a fractured right tibia ended his 2023 campaign after only five games.

"We haven't had a guy, since I've been here, with that type of injury, but he's seen the docs, he's rehabbing. We'll ultimately see when he's ready," general manager Brandon Beane said, per Sal Capaccio of WGR 550.

The good news is that Milano's injury didn't involve any ligament damage. Given the timing of the injury, it would be surprising if the 29-year-old isn't on the field for Week 1.

Milano should again be a do-it-all standout on Buffalo's defense, though the splash plays we saw in 2022 (3 INTs, 1 TD) may not come quite as frequently. The Bills parted with several veteran defenders this offseason, including Jordan Poyer, DaQuan Jones and Micah Hyde.

It may take some time for Buffalo's revamped defense to get back to where it was last season, which the team finished ranked ninth in total defense and fourth in points allowed. Milano, though, should be the same dependable defender he's always been.

Stat Projection: 16 Starts, 91 Tackles, 2.0 Sacks, 13 Tackles for Loss, 1 INT, 1 Forced Fumble

Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets

Al Bello/Getty Images

Aaron Rodgers set the stage for an injury-filed 2023 season when a torn Achilles ended his inaugural New York Jets campaign after only four snaps. However, Rodgers should be healthy by training camp, as a rapid recovery had Rodgers flirting with the idea of a 2023 return.

Rodgers didn't resign himself to a 2024 return until December.

The question Jets fans have to be asking is which version of Rodgers they will see. The 40-year-old had an underwhelming 2022 campaign with the Packers. However, he dealt with a thumb injury and a young and inexperienced receiving corps that season.

When Rodgers was fully healthy in 2021—and still playing with Davante Adams—he was both a Pro Bowler and the league MVP.

At this age, Rodgers probably isn't recapturing his MVP form. The Jets have a stronger supporting cast than the 2022 Packers, but they lack an elite tight end and still have some questions along the offensive line.

The Jets are betting that between the oft-injured Tyron Smith and rookie Olumuyiwa Fashanu, they'll find an answer at left tackle. John Simpson and Morgan Moses are also new faces on the line, so whether the unit is better than it was in 2023 (64 sacks allowed) remains to be seen.

Playmakers like Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams, Breece Hall, Malachi Corley, and Braelon Allen should at least give Rodgers a chance to earn Pro Bowl consideration.

Stat Projection: 17 Starts, 4,211 Passing Yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 95.5 QB Rating

*Contract information via Spotrac.

   

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