Dak Prescott Perry Knotts/Getty Images

How a Dak Prescott Contract Extension Could Impact Cowboys' Roster

Kristopher Knox

After addressing a few key needs in this year's NFL draft, the Dallas Cowboys are poised to make another postseason run in 2024. Things beyond this season are less clear, though, because quarterback Dak Prescott is entering the final year of his contract.

Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones recently stated that extending the 30-year-old is a "priority" and that Dallas does believe in the signal-caller.

"I totally think Dak can lead us to a championship," Jones told Mad Dog Sports Radio (h/t Jon Machota of The Athletic). "He does everything the right way. He's certainly the leader of this football team."

Extending Prescott would give Dallas much-needed stability at the game's most important position, but it would also have significant financial implications. He was an MVP candidate in 2023 and is likely to command a top-of-the-market contract.

A league-leading deal—or something close to it—would heavily impact the Cowboys' roster now and in the future.

More Financial Flexibility Now, Possibly Fewer Cap Dollars in the Future

Cowboys franchise owner Jerry Jones Omar Vega/Getty Images

Franchise owner Jerry Jones has stuck with an "all-in" on 2024 mantra throughout the offseason—even if his lack of free-agent activity doesn't reflect it.

An extension for Prescott could allow the Cowboys to make a few more all-in moves before the start of the regular season.

Right now, Dallas has roughly $4.6 million in cap space available. The final year of Prescott's deal carries a cap hit of $55.5 million. Between a $5 million roster bonus that was paid on March 18 and a $29 million base salary, his cash value for 2024 stands at $34 million.

Some of that could be cleared from the 2024 books, though. When discussing contract extensions, we often focus on "new money," or years and dollars that have been added to a current deal. However, extensions are most often entirely new deals that replace the current ones.

Dallas could then convert some of Prescott's base salary into a bonus that is prorated over four or more years, creating more 2024 cap space. According to ESPN's Todd Archer, the Cowboys could save roughly $18 million by restructuring the current deal. A new backloaded contract could create even more room.

However, pushing money into future years could limit flexibility in the future. His 2024 cap hit is high for a deal that carried an annual value of $40 million, and Prescott will already count $40.5 million against the cap in 2025, even if he's not on the roster, because of voidable years.

In other words, the Cowboys could save money now without taking away what Prescott is already owed by kicking bonus money down the road, though the bills will eventually become due—which is exactly how things unfolded with the current deal.

This financial reality is at the root of every other roster change that could occur as a result of a Prescott extension.

Dallas Could Continue Reloading for 2024 Through Free Agency

CB Stephon Gilmore Cooper Neill/Getty Images

The most immediate impact on the Dallas roster would be the ability to add to it. Because of limited cap space, its notable free-agent additions have been limited to running back Ezekiel Elliott and linebacker Eric Kendricks.

The list of incoming veterans doesn't offset a list of departures that includes offensive tackle Tyron Smith, center Tyler Biadasz, running back Tony Pollard, edge-rusher Dorance Armstrong, defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, edge Dante Fowler Jr. and defensive lineman Neville Gallimore.

Dallas has yet to re-sign cornerback and 17-game starter Stephon Gilmore.

Even if rookies Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe solidify the line—and Marshawn Kneeland becomes a reliable rotational sack artist—the roster is no better than it was a year ago. Creating additional 2024 cap space would allow Dallas to rectify the situation.

The Cowboys could, in theory, bring back Gilmore while adding additional free agents. Unsigned players such as defensive lineman Lawrence Guy, running back Jerick McKinnon and pass-rusher Bud Dupree could help round out the depth chart.

A veteran tackle like Donovan Smith could provide insurance behind Guyton, who is inexperienced and set to transition from right to left tackle. Protecting Prescott will become more of a priority if the Cowboys are invested in him for the long term.

This wouldn't guarantee Dallas gets aggressive in the later stages of free agency, of course. However, it would give the Cowboys the financial pliability that they don't currently have.

Right now, the Cowboys must simply hope they have enough in-house talent to improve on their 2023 season.

Extending CeeDee Lamb and/or Micah Parsons Early Becomes More Realistic

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Getting a deal done with Prescott now is important because Dallas has two other pressing contract situations to address. Star receiver CeeDee Lamb is entering the final year of his contract, while pass-rusher Micah Parsons is extension-eligible and will play on the fifth-year option in 2025.

While Lamb is the only one of the two who can depart in 2025 free agency, it would behoove the Cowboys to extend him and Parsons sooner than later. The cost of top-tier receivers and pass-rushers will only increase with time.

Prescott needs to be the first up because his contract includes a no-tag and no-trade clause. Dallas could franchise-tag Lamb, and Parson's contract won't be up until 2026.

However, avoiding the tag would be best, and extending Lamb before either Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase receive their next deals would be ideal. Whoever from that group signs next is likely to replace A.J. Brown as the league's highest-paid receiver (in terms of annual salary). Whoever signs next is likely to become the new market leader.

Dallas is in a similar position with Parsons. Nick Bosa currently leads the NFL with an annual salary of $34 million. If the Cowboys wait until 2026 to extend Parsons, top-of-the-market value for pass-rushers could easily exceed $40 million.

Extending Prescott now could A.) free up the cap space needed to extend Lamb and/or Parsons now and B.) let the front office know exactly how it needs to structure extensions over the next few years.

In a perfect scenario, the Cowboys would lock up all three centerpiece players before the start of training camp, settling the core of the roster for the foreseeable future.

Brandin Cooks Becomes Potential Cap Casualty, Trey Lance Becomes Trade Candidate

Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks Cooper Neill/Getty Images

If Dallas does get Prescott under contract long-term, the 2024 campaign becomes less of a Super Bowl-or-bust endeavor. This could make the Cowboys more open to moving pricey veterans whose value doesn't quite line up with their cost.

Receiver Brandin Cooks, for example, was mostly just OK as a No. 2 receiver in 2023, finishing with 657 yards and eight touchdowns. His production doesn't exactly match his $10 million 2024 cap hit, but if the Cowboys aren't looking beyond this season, it would be hard to justify releasing him.

If contending in 2025 and beyond becomes realistic, then replacing Cooks with a cheaper, if risky, alternative—either an internal candidate like Jalen Tolbert, a free agent or a trade target—will become much more palatable.

Trading or releasing Cooks after June 1 would save $8 million in 2024 cap space, money that could be used to bring in players or put toward extensions for Lamb and Parsons. Potential free-agent replacements such as Hunter Renfrow and Richie James would likely cost a fraction of what Cooks is set to earn.

Patching together a receiving corps now and targeting a long-term No. 2 receiver in the 2025 draft will be a more practical plan if Dallas knows it won't be angling for a rookie quarterback.

And if Prescott isn't going anywhere, Dallas could afford to pull the plug on the Trey Lance experiment. The Cowboys acquired the 2021 first-round pick from the San Francisco 49ers last offseason for a 2024 fourth-round selection. He was likely viewed as a developmental project and a potential long-term insurance policy.

However, the Cowboys have already declined Lance's fifth-year option, making him an impending 2025 free agent. Re-signing him next offseason just to hold a bench spot seems impractical.

Dallas could bring in a cheaper third QB behind Prescott and Cooper Rush and move on from Lance now. He probably wouldn't bring a lot in a trade, but the Cowboys could recoup some of the trade cost while saving another $5.3 million in cap space.

Developing Younger Talent Becomes Imperative with Aging Vets Likely on the Way Out

Cowboys TE Luke Schoonmaker Michael Owens/Getty Images

The potential downside to extending Prescott—and Lamb and Parsons, for that matter—is that an expensive core makes it hard to keep paying the rest of the roster. At some point, the Cowboys will have to part with some pricier veterans, even productive ones, to make it all work.

We saw this in Buffalo this offseason, as the Bills parted with key contributors like Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde and Stefon Diggs.

Re-signing players like Elliott, Kendricks, Jourdan Lewis, Zack Martin and DeMarcus Lawrence in 2025 free agency may not be practical. Dallas is projected to have $71.6 million in 2025 cap space, but that number could fall significantly with a new Prescott contract.

This makes it all the more important for Dallas to develop young talent. It might be able to retain a few key pieces, but paying everyone simply won't be an option. Players like Guyton, Beebe, Kneeland, rookie linebacker Marist Liufau, 2023 first-round pick Mazi Smith and 2023 second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker need to become regular contributors—the sooner, the better.

Rookie contracts can provide immense value, but only if the players are actually contributing. We didn't see a lot of that from Dallas' 2023 class, as Smith finished with just 13 tackles, while Schoonmaker finished with eight catches.

Head coach Mike McCarthy doesn't have to abandon a win-now approach this season, but he should look to get some of the younger players more game experience wherever possible. Dallas will be a lot more comfortable letting players like Lawrence and Kendricks walk next offseason if prospects such as Kneeland and Liufau show enough promise.

The Kansas City Chiefs have provided the blueprint for building around an expensive veteran core by drafting and developing talent. Kansas City has paid the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones while letting younger players like George Karlaftis, Trent McDuffie and Isiah Pacheco grow into notable roles.

If the Cowboys hope to replicate that formula after extending Prescott, they have to find out if the players they've recently drafted can actually play.

If they can, expect younger players to be pushed into more prominent roles over the next couple of seasons while pricier vets not named Prescott, Lamb, Parsons or Trevon Diggs are incrementally priced out.

*Cap and contract information via Spotrac.

   

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