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Lakers' LeBron James: Time and Place Where Analytics Should Get the F--k Out in NBA

Adam Wells

LeBron James isn't yelling at any clouds, but the Los Angeles Lakers star thinks there are times when the use of analytics in the NBA goes too far.

On the latest episode of Mind the Game (starts at 36:20 mark), James said there's a time and place when analytics should "get the f--k out" of a team's approach during games.

James and JJ Redick were specifically talking about the difference in value between shots at the rim, mid-range jumpers and three-pointers, which prompted LeBron to ask what happens in a situation like the Houston Rockets in Game 7 of the 2018 Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors.

"It's not like they had f--king five Craig Hodges on the team, or five Steve Kerrs on the floor, where that's all they can do is shoot threes," James said. "They had guys that can—Eric Gordon, you can get into the paint. James Harden, you can get into the paint."

That era of Rockets basketball helped revolutionize the analytics movement across the NBA. It came to be known as "Moreyball" since it was implemented when Daryl Morey was their general manager.

The philosophy of "Moreyball" was to generate layups since that was the most efficient shot a player could get and threes, since three points are worth more than two, and everything in between would only be used as a last resort.

It was a strategy that led to incredible success for the Rockets. They won at least 50 games five times in six seasons from 2013-14 to 2018-19, but never made it past the Western Conference Finals during that run.

The lowest point came in Game 7 of the 2018 Western Conference Finals against the Warriors. They jumped out to a 15-point lead in the second quarter and led by 11 into the third quarter.

The Rockets had a run of 27 straight missed threes that began in the second quarter and lasted until P.J. Tucker finally connected with 6:08 remaining in the fourth. They scored a total of 38 points in the second half of the 101-92 loss.

Based on calculations using the 2017-18 Rockets' season-long 36.2 percent success rate on threes, the odds of them missing 27 straight were 186,200-to-1.

James' argument that at some point the Rockets should have adjusted their approach may have produced a different outcome. They shot 37.5 percent from the field in the second half but were 14-of-19 from inside the three-point line.

Of course, if someone were to tell you the odds of something happening were almost 200,000-to-1, you would feel comfortable going with the strategy that made you successful all year.

   

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