Chicago's Andrew Benintendi Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images

Ranking the 10 Biggest Disasters of the 2024 MLB Season So Far

Kerry Miller

From surprise division leaders such as the Guardians and Brewers to the young sensations like Bobby Witt Jr., Elly De La Cruz and Riley Greene, there have been a ton of exciting developments through the first 20 percent of the 2024 MLB season.

And then there's the other extreme.

Not all of our biggest early disasters hail from last-place disappointments. In fact, half of this list plays for teams that entered May at least four games above .500. However, even the best teams have had some massive letdowns.

Rest assured, though: The top three spots are reserved for the three dumpster fires who effectively have been eliminated from postseason contention already.

10. Nick Castellanos

Philadelphia's Nick Castellanos Jeff Dean/Getty Images

Credit where it's due: Nick Castellanos almost played his way off this list Tuesday night, going 3-for-4 in the come-from-behind victory over the Angels, including the game-tying home run off Carlos Estévez in the ninth inning.

It was a massive performance...

To bring his year-to-date triple-slash up to .193/.258/.263.

There's two-pronged good news for the Phillies:

  1. They are thriving in spite of Castellanos' early shortcomings, currently 20-11 and in much better shape in early May than they had been the past two seasons.
  2. What happened last year with both Bryce Harper and Trea Turner should give them reason to believe that their high-priced, multiple-time All-Star will eventually come around.

All the same, it kind of feels like they are setting $20 million on fire right now with how poorly Castellanos has been performing for most of the season.

From 2016-23, Castellanos had an OPS+ of 117, peaking at 138 with Cincinnati in 2021 and getting a nine-figure contract for it.

At the start of play Tuesday, though, the Phillies right fielder had an OPS+ of 32, good for third-worst among qualified hitters.

And this isn't one of those players who has a history of starting slow before heating up. If anything, Castellanos was Philadelphia's saving grace in recent springs, carrying at least a .300 batting average into May in each of the previous two years. But this year he can't buy a hit.

Goodness knows he isn't making up for it in right field, either. He hasn't actually committed an error yet in his two-plus seasons with the Phillies, but Castellanos' range and roundabout routes to balls have him well on his way to an 11th season with a negative dWAR.

9. Seattle Mariners' Whiff Rate on Offense

Seattle's Julio Rodriguez Steph Chambers/Getty Images

From a leaguewide perspective, strikeout rate has been hovering in the 22-23 percent vicinity for seven seasons now. This is well above the mid-teens range where it used to sit for decades, but has perhaps finally reached a plateau.

In fact, the current league-wide K% of 22.5 is a tick down from last year's mark of 22.7 percent and a full point below the record mark of 23.4 percent set in 2020—though, the sheer volume of whiff-inducing aces currently recovering from elbow surgery is almost certainly a factor there.

Someone neglected to tell the Seattle Mariners, though.

The Mariners ended April striking out in 28.7 percent of plate appearances as a team. No other squad is currently above 27.1 percent, and the M's are well on pace for what would be the worst such mark in MLB history—a dubious crown which currently belongs to the 2020 Detroit Tigers at 27.3 percent.

It's not just one or two players, either. Julio Rodríguez's slow start has been well documented, but this has been a team-wide affliction. Of the 14 Mariners who have made at least 10 plate appearances, 11 have a strikeout rate north of 29 percent.

The silver lining is that Seattle's pitching staff has returned the favor, allowing the fewest runs of any team. By some miracle, the Mariners have actually gone 10-3 thus far this season when striking out at least 11 times in a game, including Monday's walk-off victory over Atlanta in which the M's whiffed 10 times before getting their first hit.

Nevertheless, this strikeout rate is a disaster, and they'll need to start making contact more often at the plate if they expect to remain atop the AL West.

8. Detroit Tigers Infield

Detroit's Spencer Torkelson Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

As is the case with the just-discussed Seattle Mariners, calling anything a "disaster" when a team is sitting at 17-13 through 30 games rings pretty hollow.

But what in the world is going on with this Tigers infield?

We'll cut Colt Keith some slack, as the rookie second baseman is still cutting his teeth against big-league pitching. However, the Tigers gave him a six-year deal this offseason before he made his MLB debut, and he has yet to back it up in the slightest, slugging .165.

No slack will be cut for shortstop Javier Báez, who has taken yet another turn for the worse in the Detroit portion of his career. He is presently sitting on a .198 batting average and .524 OPS in season No. 3 of his disastrous six-year contract.

Third baseman Gio Urshela did not homer in 18 games prior to landing on the IL with a hamstring injury. Veteran reserve infielder Andy Ibáñez has been out for almost a month with a hamstring injury of his own.

Catchers Jake Rogers and Carson Kelly are both hitting below the Mendoza line.

The real surprise, though, is the doughnut in the home run column from Spencer Torkelson. He mashed 31 taters last season and was expected to be one of the most valuable players in the AL Central if Detroit was to have any hope of contending in 2024. Yet, through 125 trips to the plate, nothing.

All told, Torkelson, Keith, Báez and Urshela entered Wednesday batting a combined .209 with one home run.

Couple that with Parker Meadows batting .100 as the primary center fielder and this winning record feels like some kind of voodoo magic.

7. Houston Astros

Houston's Jose Abreu Logan Riely/Getty Images

Even when the Houston Astros were deliberately tanking in the early 2010s, they always got their eighth win before suffering their 19th loss.

Not this year, though.

The team seeking a record-setting eighth consecutive trip to the LCS round of the postseason was swept in four of its first eight series of the regular season, starting out 7-19 (or worse) for the first time in more than half a century.

José Abreu has been even worse than he was through the first 50 games of last season, and was optioned down to rookie-level West Palm Beach on Tuesday afternoon.

Alex Bregman finally hit his first home run of 2024 Tuesday night.

Chas McCormick is still looking for his first dinger of the year, looking nothing like the breakout sensation from the second half of last season.

The lone noteworthy move Houston made this offseason—signing Josh Hader—has been more of a nightmare than a dream, as he and former closer Ryan Pressly have allowed a combined 20 runs (17 earned) in just 24.1 innings pitched. (Though, Hader did pitch two full innings in Tuesday night's victory over Cleveland, which he hadn't done since September 2019. So, that's something.)

J.P. France, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti have all struggled mightily, while each of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier has already missed time on the IL.

Several of the regulars (especially Jose Altuve) are hitting quite well and starting pitcher Ronel Blanco remains one of the biggest positive surprises in all of baseball, but April could not have gone much worse for the Astros.

The funny part / silver lining of this terrible start to the year is that four of those first seven wins came against the Texas Rangers. Doesn't exactly make up for what happened in October, but at least they've been able to take down their in-state rival a few times, which has kept them within striking distance in the AL West if they do get into a groove.

6. Jackson Holliday's AL ROY Campaign

Baltimore's Jackson Holliday Kyle Rivas/Getty Images

When the betting markets for MLB's Rookies of the Year first opened in February, Baltimore's Jackson Holliday was the narrow favorite in the American League, edging out Texas' duo of Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford, the former of whom made a remarkable first impression last September and October.

Holliday—the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft—rampaged through the minors in 2023 before turning in a great spring training with seven extra base hits and a .954 OPS.

It wasn't enough, though. The Orioles made the surprising decision to have Holliday open the season with Triple-A Norfolk, which—taken in conjunction with Langford cracking Texas' Opening Day roster—was the first major blow to his AL ROY campaign.

It took less than two weeks of crushing it at Triple-A for Holliday to get promoted to the big leagues, but it didn't go well at all. Holliday went just 2-for-34 with 18 strikeouts before getting sent back down to Norfolk last week.

By no means are we declaring Holliday a bust, though. MLB history is littered with guys who got out to inauspicious early starts to their careers before going on to become stars, including three-time MVPs Mike Trout and Alex Rodriguez. And with his sweet, sweet swing, Holliday may well follow a similar path.

However, if you bet on Holliday to win AL ROY, that ticket is sure looking like a bust.

(But, you know, don't throw that ticket away or anything. Yordan Alvarez won AL ROY in 2019 after getting called up in June and playing in just 87 games. Maybe Holliday comes back in a couple of weeks and has a much better run.)

5. Tampa Bay Rays Bullpen

Tampa Bay's Phil Maton Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

One of the biggest reasons the Tampa Bay Rays have been so consistently solid over the past 16 years is their ability to find diamonds in the rough—aka the bullpen.

Rays relievers had a cumulative 3.81 ERA en route to 99 wins last season, which was both better than the league average and a bit worse than usual for this franchise. In each of the prior three seasons, they got a sub-3.40 ERA from the pen with guys like Pete Fairbanks, Colin Poche, Jason Adam and Andrew Kittredge leading the charge.

Of the 19 Rays relievers to log at least 40 innings pitched in relief from 2020-23, the only one to do so with an ERA north of 4.00 was Jalen Beeks (4.32).

So far this season, however, all the Rays have found in the rough is rough sledding.

They have a team-wide bullpen ERA of 5.36, as well as a FIP of 5.24 that ranks dead last in the majors and suggests this is more than just a touch of bad luck.

Both Poche (6.75 ERA) and Fairbanks (9.00 ERA) have landed on the IL after brutal starts to the year. Same goes for Chris Devenski (7.71 ERA). And making Phil Maton (7.59 ERA) the second-highest salaried pitcher on the roster ($6.25M) hasn't exactly gone according to plan.

As a result, the Rays are 14-17, have tied for the most blown saves in the majors (eight) and find themselves alone in last place in the AL East.

4. Kyle Hendricks

Chicago's Kyle Hendricks Griffin Quinn/Getty Images

There were roughly 40 club options on the table across the league this past offseason, and what the Chicago Cubs would do with Kyle Hendricks was arguably the toughest decision of all.

He had a bit of a bounce-back year in 2023 after disappointing campaigns in 2021 and 2022, but would it be worth $16.5 million to bring back the 34-year-old who had spent his entire 10-year big-league career with the baby bears?

They decided yes, but it turns out the correct answer was a resounding no.

As of Wednesday morning, there were 133 pitchers who have logged at least 20 innings this season, three of whom had an ERA north of 7.50: New York Mets' Adrian Houser (8.37), Houston Astros' Hunter Brown (9.78) and Hendricks' ghastly mark of 12.00.

It wasn't just one or two exceptionally disappointing appearances, either. Hendricks had allowed at least one earned run per inning pitched in each of his first five starts of the regular season, this after scuffling through spring training with a 6.30 ERA.

Combine the two data sets and he has a 2024 total line of 41.0 IP, 66 H, 42 ER, 12 BB, 29 K with 10 home runs allowed.

Not great.

Hendricks is presently on the IL with a back strain, and the Cubs are impressively six games above .500 in spite of his brutal start. We'll see if he makes it back to the majors or if his career just ended as unceremoniously as Madison Bumgarner's did one year ago.

3. Miami Marlins

Miami's Nick Fortes Dustin Satloff/Getty Images

The disaster within the disaster that is the Miami Marlins is the situation at catcher. Between Nick Fortes, Christian Bethancourt and Jhonny Pereda, "Miami C" has gone a cumulative 8-for-94 at the dish, while also allowing 30 stolen bases and committing three throwing errors.

But it's not like things are going much better elsewhere for this team.

Regulars in the lineup Josh Bell, Nick Gordon, Emmanuel Rivera and Tim Anderson all entered May with an OPS below .560. (So, no, that one-year flier on Anderson having a bounce-back year hasn't panned out.)

After a spring training in which closer-turned-starter A.J. Puk pitched 13.2 innings with a 1.32 ERA and a K-to-BB ratio of 23-to-4, he lasted an identical 13.2 innings with an extremely unidentical 9.22 ERA and 17-to-12 K-to-BB ratio before landing on the IL with shoulder fatigue.

Since inheriting Puk's closer gig, Tanner Scott has allowed more than one walk per inning while suffering four losses of his own.

Perhaps worst of all, Jesús Luzardo—an offseason trade block candidate who likely would have fetched a nice haul for Miami if they had been more willing to get a deal done—had a 6.58 ERA before landing on the IL with an elbow injury.

The hope is that neither Luzardo nor slugger Jake Burger (oblique) will be out for too long, but let's just say the absurd amount of good luck that Miami enjoyed last season has been nowhere to be found this year.

The lone bright spot has been Max Meyer, who made three solid starts before getting sent back down to Triple-A as part of the organization's plan to ease the 25-year-old back into the swing of things after Tommy John surgery in August 2022.

Though, if the plan was to keep Meyer fresh and available for a possible postseason run, it's pretty clear this 7-24 club doesn't need to worry about that.

2. Colorado Rockies

Colorado's Kris Bryant Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

The Colorado Rockies entered May with a 7-22 record, fresh off an inconceivable walk-off loss to the 7-24 Miami Marlins in which they led 5-0 in the ninth inning.

As a result, they now own an unflattering bit of history, becoming the first team since at least 1900 to trail at some point in each of its first 29 games, per Associated Press.

Obviously, they were behind in each of the 22 losses. But they also had to erase a deficit in each of their seven wins, relentlessly digging themselves into early holes with their sub-mediocre pitching and infrequently finding the offensive firepower to do anything about it.

What else is new, though?

The Rockies suffered a franchise-worst 103 loss in 2023 and weren't expected to be any better this year.

They allowed the most runs in the majors in each of the past two seasons and are well on pace for a three-peat in that department, as the offseason acquisitions of Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson have done nothing to help matters.

With Kris Bryant back on the IL again (back injury) and batting worse than ever (.149 AVG), we are officially approaching "Where does it rank among the worst contracts of all-time?" territory in year three of that seven-year, $182M albatross.

And last year's breakout star, Nolan Jones? Batting .170 and recently joined Bryant on the IL with a back injury of his own.

Colorado has never won an NL West division crown and has finished at least 16 games back in 12 of the past 13 years. It is a foregone conclusion that the trend will continue to 13 out of 14 this season, and it's hard to see if or when that will change.

1. Chicago White Sox

Chicago's Andrew Vaughn Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images

Most of these disasters feel salvageable to some degree.

Jackson Holliday could come back up later this month and thrive. Julio Rodríguez will eventually heat up. Nick Castellanos should, too. Houston's pitching might get healthy. The Rays always seem to find pitching and could do it again. Etc. Etc.

But the Chicago White Sox?

They seem to just be irreparably bad.

Maybe the recent sweep of Tampa Bay sparked something and they'll at least be "not historically inept" the rest of the way.

However, during the 3-22 start to the year in which they were outscored 141-56, the White Sox...well, they looked a lot like a team that spent the previous eight months gutting the MLB roster to restock the farm system before losing by far its most valuable player to a hip injury one week into the season.

Luis Robert Jr. could return later this month, but it will almost surely be too little, too late for a team that should probably just be focused on draft position and not relocating its rebuilding franchise to Nashville.

Of the six pitchers who have made multiple starts for the White Sox, the only one with a sub-5.00 ERA is Erick Fedde, who had a career 5.41 ERA in his six seasons with the Washington Nationals. And the starting rotation probably isn't even as bad as the bullpen.

The franchise record for losses in a single season (106 in 1970) isn't going to be the record for much longer.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics are current through the start of play Wednesday.

   

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