DeMar DeRozan Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images

5 NBA Players Who Will Be Overpaid in 2024 Free Agency

Andy Bailey

Roughly half the league is still in action during the frenzied first round of the 2024 NBA playoffs, but you can be sure that all 30 front offices at least have one eye on the offseason.

And one of the annual avenues for significant change is free agency.

Every summer, dozens of players switch teams when their contract expires and they sign a new one elsewhere. Others stay put by re-upping with their current organization.

And on both sides of that ledger, there are always a few deals that wind up looking like pretty obvious overpays.

Here are five 2024 free agents who have the potential to fall into that category.

DeMar DeRozan

Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

At the outset, it should be noted that DeMar DeRozan is coming off one of the best three-year stretches of his decorated career.

As a Chicago Bull, he's averaged 25.5 points and 5.1 assists. He has a 10th-place MVP finish.

And after his teams were plus-0.0 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and plus-2.8 with him off it over the first 12 years of his career, that trend has flipped in Chicago. Over the last three years, the Bulls are plus-0.4 with DeRozan and minus-1.4 without him.

But DeRozan will be 35 before the 2024-25 campaign starts. He was a minus defender this season, according to Dunks and Threes' estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices). And he's still not a reliable three-point shooter in a league in which that skill has become almost crucial for guards and wings.

His reputation and the fact that this is a relatively weak free-agent class mean he'll probably sign another contract that will pay him around $20 million annually, but that will feel onerous by the end of the deal, when DeRozan is well into his late 30s.

Paul George (Player Option)

Paul George Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images

This is a little more of a stretch.

Paul George was a top 20-25 player this season. He's proved impressively adaptable over the course of his career, with consistent perimeter defense and high-volume, high-efficiency outside shooting.

This postseason, he's been a dynamic two-way force who's helping the Los Angeles Clippers compete with the Dallas Mavericks despite the absence of Kawhi Leonard.

However, he'll also turn 34 in May and is likely to command a long-term, maximum-salary deal if he declines his player option with the Clippers.

And while he may help some team (like the Philadelphia 76ers) contend for titles in the next couple years, the window may not be open much longer than that.

Assuming George signs a four-year max and his new team fails to win it all within the first couple seasons of that deal, his salary will look like a real burden as he moves into his age-37 and -38 seasons.

James Harden

James Harden Tim Warner/Getty Images

Much of the above applies to James Harden, too. In fact, being the Clippers' best player in this series against Dallas may be improving the perception of him as a playoff performer.

After years of struggling in the postseason's biggest moments, he's dominating the Mavericks with 26.0 points, 7.0 assists, 4.3 threes and a 50.0 three-point percentage. After surrendering a 30-plus-point lead in Game 4, he hit a barrage of floaters in the fourth quarter to get his team back on top and even the series.

However, he's also a year older than George. He'll be 35 in August, and his 16.6 points this regular season was his lowest average since his sophomore campaign in 2010-11.

Of course, a lot of that decline in production had to do with his deferral to Kawhi and PG, but there was a stretch over the end of the campaign that raised some red flags.

Over his last 23 games (more than a quarter of a season), Harden averaged 14.7 points while shooting 37.9 percent from the field and 29.6 percent from deep. The assists were still there, but his first step seemed a half-beat slower, and the league's officiating adjustment seemed to affect his ability to get to the line.

And as he nears his late 30s, the speed is unlikely to suddenly return. Ideally, the NBA will stick with the more physical brand of play it's allowed since the All-Star break too.

With those two trends in place, a deal paying Harden $30-plus million as he nears 40 could look awful rough, but the former MVP may be ensuring that kind of payday with the way he's playing right now.

Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

Laying much of the blame for the Philadelphia 76ers' recent playoff struggles on Tobias Harris is a pretty common practice. And though some of the criticism may be over the top, his $39.3 million salary makes him the team's second-highest paid player. And he does disappear for long stretches of important games.

This postseason, the 31-year-old is averaging just 8.8 points and shooting 25.0 percent from three.

However, even after years of seemingly not living up to his lofty salary, Harris is still a 6'8" forward who can theoretically switch around the perimeter on defense and hit threes (he's at 38.5 percent from deep over the last seven years).

Some team desperate for mere competence (like the Detroit Pistons) might talk itself into his relatively portable game for a contract paying him $20-plus million annually.

And while that's not necessarily a huge chunk of a salary cap that's projected to be $141 million in 2024-25, it'll feel like it if Harris is closer to the player he's been this postseason than he was in the regular season (when he put up 17.2 points).

Isaac Okoro (Restricted)

Isaac Okoro Rich Storry/Getty Images

We had to include at least one restricted free agent here. Almost every year, there's at least one who signs an offer sheet that seems a little beyond what the player is really worth.

The idea, of course, is that the suitor is trying to make the deal cumbersome enough to scare the incumbent team away from matching, and Isaac Okoro seems a likely candidate for that kind of approach this summer.

The 23-year-old wing had a solid fourth season in which he averaged 9.4 points and 1.2 threes while shooting 39.1 percent from three and providing stout perimeter defense, but he doesn't profile to be a high-volume scorer or difference-making playmaker.

It's too early to rule those things out. They just aren't likely, and some team trying to clear the hurdles of restricted free agency may have to offer Okoro a deal that would pay him like they are.

   

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