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2024 NFL Draft: 4 Worst Landing Spots for Rookies to Become First-Year Stars

Alex Kay

Now that the 2024 NFL draft is over, it's time to start looking ahead again. Instead of projecting where the top prospects will land, it's now time to predict how the 257 prospects who were selected in this year's class will fare in their first professional seasons.

Many prospects landed in situations that should foster early success. Whether they were selected to fill a major hole or provide a skill set that their new team was lacking, they should have little issue getting onto the field and making an impact as a rookie.

Others weren't quite as fortunate. We'll be taking a closer look at this group–the handful of prospects who appear to be stuck in an unfavorable situation following their selection early in the 2024 draft.

Read on to find four players who are unlikely to emerge as immediate NFL stars largely due to which franchise they wound up with.

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons

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While most of the quarterbacks from this year's class will likely get their chance to start within a year or two, Michael Penix Jr.—the No. 8 overall pick and fourth passer taken—could end up riding the pine throughout the full duration of his rookie contract.

The Atlanta Falcons made one of the all-time head-scratching draft-day decisions when they selected the Washington quarterback just six weeks after signing four-time Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal in free agency.

Even with Cousins coming off a season-ending Achilles injury and entering his age 36 campaign, the selection makes little sense. Penix spent much of his own collegiate career rehabbing significant injuries and only recently proved capable of staying healthy for long stretches.

Penix is also 24 years old. If Cousins continues to perform at a high level over the duration of his new deal, Penix might start for only one season before turning 30.

While Cousins wasn't informed of the selection before Atlanta made it—and the quarterback's agent told ESPN's Pete Thamel that there was "frustration and confusion" from his camp over the pick—he did reach out to Penix shortly after he joined the organization. According to ESPN's Marc Raimondi, Penix said it was a "good conversation" that has the rookie "super excited to work" with the veteran.

Most reactions around the league were far more negative. Fans flooded social media with questions, concerns and comments regarding the pick, with most citing Penix's advanced age for a prospect and injury concerns as red flags.

Even former players had some scalding takes. During an appearance on the The Dan Patrick Show, ex-NFL player Ross Tucker called Atlanta's first-round decision both "selfish" and "disrespectful," citing the front office's desire to have job security as the main reason why Penix was the choice at No. 8 overall.

Penix has almost no chance of earning meaningful playing time not only as a rookie, but also potentially over the first few years of his career. He will be off the radar and far from a first-year star.

Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams

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Michigan running back Blake Corum was one of the more intriguing prospects in the 2024 class due to his elite production. Unfortunately, he's now set to serve as a backup behind one of the NFL's most promising breakout talents from last season and may not get a chance to shine for some time.

During the draft broadcast (h/t MLive.com), ESPN analyst Louis Riddick called Corum the "ultimate competitor" and highlighted toughness as a defining quality for a back who tallied 2,708 yards and 45 touchdowns on the ground over the last two seasons. However, the Los Angeles Rams might only utilize Corum's instinctive rushing abilities and cutting skills in a complementary role behind Kyren Williams.

Williams rapidly ascended the depth chart in Los Angeles last year. After opening the year behind Cam Akers, his strong performances led the Rams to deal away the incumbent starter and hand the second-year back the RB1 role. While Williams missed a stretch in the middle of the season with an ankle injury, he returned from a four-game absence to dominate.

Between Weeks 12 and 17, Williams posted an impressive 688 yards and six touchdowns on 131 carries. He contributed as a receiver as well, reeling in 19 of 24 targets for 101 yards and two scores in that same span.

It's clear that Williams has what it takes to be a lead back in the NFL, and the Rams haven't asked their No. 2 RB to do much during McVay's tenure. Backup Royce Freeman accounted for only 319 yards and one score on 77 carries across 14 games last season, with much of that production coming during Williams' stint on the sideline.

Corum could eventually flourish in L.A., but expect him to spend much of his rookie year on the bench as Williams leads the backfield by a wide margin.

Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears

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Despite being one of the clear-cut winners of the 2024 draft, the Chicago Bears may not be able to maximize the talents of their No. 9 overall pick right away. Rome Odunze might struggle to replicate his big numbers from college now that he's joining a crowded receiver's room in the Windy City.

Odunze has all of the qualities to become a perennial Pro Bowler in the NFL, but there may be too many mouths for new quarterback Caleb Williams to reasonably feed in Year 1. After trading for Keenan Allen earlier this offseason, the Bears already had two proven veterans in their receiving corps who will likely account for a massive share of the team's targets.

Incumbent No. 1 wideout DJ Moore led Chicago with 96 receptions on 136 targets for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns last year. Allen saw even more volume during his final campaign with the Los Angeles Chargers, reeling in a career-high 108 of his 150 targets for 1,243 yards and seven scores.

While the Bears did allow No. 2 wideout Darnell Mooney to walk in free agency, they still have rising star tight end Cole Kmet, who finished a breakout 2023 season with career highs of 73 catches on 90 targets for 719 yards and six touchdowns.

The Bears are likely to throw on far more than the 51.3 percent of offensive snaps they did with Justin Fields at the helm in 2023—the second-lowest percentage in the NFL last year—but there still won't be enough passing plays dialed up for Odunze to see anywhere near the usage rate he did for the Huskies.

The wideout is coming off a sterling final collegiate season in which he amassed 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns on 92 catches. As a rookie, he'll probably have to settle for just a handful of targets coming his way each week.

Having too many elite pass-catchers may be a good problem for Williams and the Chicago offense to have, but it won't result in the type of early stardom that Odunze likely would have found elsewhere.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

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The Las Vegas Raiders were one of the few teams selecting in the top half of the 2024 draft that needed a quarterback and didn't come away with one.

Brock Bowers wasn't a bad consolation prize, as he was the No. 2 overall prospect on the final Bleacher Report Scouting Department big board. He's one of the most complete tight ends to enter the draft in years, offering both proven production at the collegiate level and upside to continue developing his game in the NFL.

In just three years at Georgia, including a 2023 campaign in which he battled injuries, Bowers tallied 175 receptions for 2,538 yards and 26 touchdowns while adding another 193 yards and five scores on 19 rushing attempts.

Despite that, Bowers might not be a great fit in Sin City. The Raiders already spent a second-round pick on another highly regarded tight end last year in Michael Mayer, but they struggled to integrate him into their offense. He finished his rookie year with a tepid 304 yards and two touchdowns on 27 receptions.

Vegas could operate out of 12 personnel more often and deploy Bowers at other spots in the lineup due to his versatility. But like Mayer, he's still going to struggle to move the needle without a decent quarterback under center.

O'Connell punched up for a fourth-rounder who was thrust into the starting lineup only two months into his rookie season, but he finished the year with a pedestrian 2,218 yards and 12 touchdowns against seven interceptions across 10 starts. Minshew adequately replaced injured rookie Anthony Richardson for the Indianapolis Colts last season, but he had only 3,305 yards and 15 scores with nine picks over 13 starts.

It's unlikely that the Raiders coaching staff will want either signal-caller unleashing a huge volume of throws in 2024. The team notably beat the Kansas City Chiefs last year despite O'Connell failing to complete a single pass after the first quarter. It's hard to see a high-powered aerial offense coming to Vegas until 2025 at the earliest.

Bowers should end up becoming a fantastic NFL tight end at some point. But his chances of ascending to legitimate superstar status while piling up big receiving numbers will be on the backburner until the Raiders find a better quarterback.

   

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