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MLB's Biggest Winners and Losers 30 Games into 2024 Season

Zachary D. Rymer

This might be hard to hear for anyone who's just awoken from an abnormally long nap, but there are only 152 days left in the 2024 MLB season.

In any case, what better time than now to size up the biggest winners and losers of the season so far?

There are technically five of each that I want to talk about, but the total number of players, teams and other entities involved in the discussion is far greater. Because when you're trying to make sense of about 30 games' worth of action, the big picture is the best picture.

This being said, let's get off to a simple start by heaping praise on the player who's owning the season unlike any other.

See also: 10 Takeaways From MLB's First Month of the 2024 Season

Winner: Mookie Betts

Mookie Betts Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images

The task before Mookie Betts is a formidable one. He must adjust to a new role at a premium position and continue to carry a marquee franchise that now has a $700 million player.

It's, uh, going well.

The 31-year-old Betts got an early start on an amazing year by going 6-for-9 with seven runs batted in during the Los Angeles Dodgers' two-game series in South Korea, and he hasn't let up since. He leads MLB in numerous categories, including WAR at 2.9.

That nobody is even close to Betts in WAR isn't just because of his offensive excellence, though a 1.119 OPS is nothing to sneeze at. He's also tied for second among shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved, which is bonkers considering that he had started all of 12 games at the position before 2024.

Where Betts, who won the American League MVP in 2018, stands in the race for the NL MVP (i.e., in the lead) is barely worth discussing. As he's now been the most productive position player in MLB for a decade, a better question is whether he's already qualified to end up where he wants to end up: the Hall of Fame.

Loser: Recent MVP Winners

José Abreu Logan Riely/Getty Images

In addition to Betts, it bears noting that other recent MVPs are having good seasons so far.

There's Shohei Ohtani, who's rocking a 1.041 OPS and hogging the doubles leaderboard. There's also Mike Trout, who's emerged from a string of injury-marred years to slug a league-leading 10 homers. And there's also Bryce Harper, who's homered six times in his own right.

But when it comes to MVPs of recent vintage as a whole, these guys are the exception to the rule in 2024.

Nobody is doing worse than José Abreu, who's 7-for-71 with no homers. Yet we're also seeing power outages on the parts of Ronald Acuña Jr. (1 HR), Freddie Freeman (2 HR) and Paul Goldschmidt (2 HR), while Goldschmidt and Aaron Judge are also barely batting above .200. Cody Bellinger had been off to a solid start but is now on the IL with fractured ribs.

Weird? Definitely. Alarming? A little bit of that, too.

Perhaps most importantly, it is inconvenient for Major League Baseball. Marketable stars are hard enough to come by in the best of times, so the last thing the league wants is such large names producing so little.

Winner: Juan Soto

Juan Soto Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Juan Soto, of course, does not have an MVP...yet.

He's doing everything in his power to add one to his collection at the end of 2024. And in style, to boot. He has a .981 OPS in his first season as a New York Yankee, and he's been at the center of seemingly every one of the team's biggest moments.

To say that Yankees fans have taken a liking to Soto would be underselling it. They absolutely love him, and they're far from alone there. He's made a big impact in the clubhouse and he has the front office openly thirsting for more.

"It feels like he's been here a long time because of how easily he's allowed people in," Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said. "We're lucky to have him, and certainly we'd love to have him for a long time."

That'll only happen if the Yankees pony up enough money, either via an extension or in free agency this coming winter. Either way, Soto's hot start is yet another reason to expect that the guarantee in his next contract will be a nine-figure sum beginning with a five.

Loser: Legacy Aces

Blake Snell Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

My initial plan for this spot was to focus solely on Blake Snell as the inverse of Soto.

He's already been through free agency, and it was a disappointing experience that resulted in him settling for about a third of his purported asking price. And then his first three starts for the San Francisco Giants yielded an 11.57 ERA before he landed on the injured list.

But then again, to imply that Snell is the only name-brand ace who's having a rough one in 2024 would be to unfairly single him out.

It's shocking how many of the best pitchers from the last five years are injured. Spencer Strider, Shane Bieber, Sandy Alcantara, Lucas Giolito and Brandon Woodruff are all out for the year. Though they will eventually be seen this year, Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish are also on the IL.

Even among the guys who are healthy right now, the news isn't all good. Max Fried, Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo and Pablo López all have ERAs north of 4.00, while Joe Musgrove barely has an ERA south of 7.00.

Basically, if the MVP slide didn't convince you that MLB isn't in a great spot with its established stars, this one sure should.

Winner: Surprise Aces

Tanner Houck Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images

On the plus side, it's not like all those injuries and poor performances have tanked the quality of pitching around the league.

The opposite is true, as the league-wide ERA is down from 4.33 in 2023 to 4.01 so far in 2024. Many guys can claim credit for this, but it's especially notable that the top of the ERA leaderboard is crowded with unusual suspects.

Zack Wheeler and José Berríos being in there tracks, and those in the know could have anticipated Tarik Skubal's ongoing breakout. Otherwise, anyone who had Ranger Suárez, Kutter Crawford, Jordan Hicks, Tanner Houck, Ronel Blanco, Seth Lugo and Tyler Anderson among the best pitchers of 2024 is either clairvoyant or a no good, dirty liar.

There's undoubtedly some small-sample-size tomfoolery at work here, but also plenty of talent. Crawford, Hicks and Houck have legit stuff. Suárez is a ground-ball machine. Blanco does not abide hard contact.

As such, it's possible to do two things at once right now: Lament over the absent legacy aces, yes, but also delight in getting to know the guys who are filling the void.

Loser: Houston Astros

Josh Hader (C) Tim Warner/Getty Images

If anyone is in the mood to yell "Yikes!" at high volume, I recommend looking at the Houston Astros' playoff odds.

The picture is about as pretty as you'd expect in light of their 9-19 start, which is to say not pretty at all. According to FanGraphs, the Astros' chances of making the playoffs in any capacity are down from 86.2 percent to 47.6 percent since Opening Day. Of winning the American League pennant, their chances are down from 24.0 to 10.7 percent.

Granted, only so much panic is warranted here.

Despite Abreu's best efforts at sabotage, the Astros still have a dangerous offense. And in the scheme of things, 19 losses in 28 games isn't a death sentence. The 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks are but one of several recent examples of teams that had such a stretch and still made the playoffs.

This is not to say the Astros shouldn't be worried, however. Their pitching has been legitimately bad in posting a 4.92 ERA, and their schedule isn't about to get any softer. They're staring down 12 straight against teams with winning records.

Winner: AL Central Surprises

Josh Naylor (L) and José Ramírez (R) Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

If it's the inverse of the Astros that you want, what I have for you is the Cleveland Guardians.

They weren't necessarily a playoff long shot as of Opening Day, but they were supposed to be no more than a middling contender. What they actually are, of course, is the team with the best record in the American League at 19-9.

Sustainable? Only if they continue to shrug off Bieber's Tommy John surgery and continue to rake with runners in scoring position, which is how they've gotten 107 of their 143 runs. But if that happens, it'll be that much easier to apply the ol' "stranger things" logic in retrospect.

Meanwhile, also in the AL playoff field if the season ended today would be the Kansas City Royals (17-13) and Detroit Tigers (16-12). Both are benefiting from dramatically improved starting pitching, and especially the Royals to the tune of a 3.15 ERA.

Add in that the Minnesota Twins (15-13) are back in the hunt courtesy of an eight-game winning streak, and what you get is quite a reputation renovation for the AL Central. Suffice it to say it no longer looks like the worst division in the league.

Loser: NL West Contenders

Corbin Carroll Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

This does not, for the record, apply to the Dodgers.

They came into 2024 as the overwhelming favorite to win the NL West, and they remain the overwhelming favorite to win the NL West. Their 19-12 record isn't earth-shattering by any means, but it does have them on track to end up with 99 wins.

At the rate that the other three contenders in the division are going, that would be plenty.

The San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks all have losing records, and only one of them has a positive run differential. That's the D-backs, but even they have real causes for worry.

The big one concerns reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, who's hitting .191 with diminished power and speed. As for San Francisco and San Diego, the former has a sputtering offense and the latter has a rotation that hasn't lived up to its lofty billing.

Which brings us to the good news for the Dodgers: Their chances of winning their 11th division title in the last 12 years have actually increased since Opening Day.

Winner: Catchers

William Contreras Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

Don't look now—or rather, do—but the catching position is having a moment in 2024.

Due to the newly introduced pickoff limitations and bigger bases, the dudes behind the dish always figured to be the butt of more stolen bases in 2023. And they were, as their rate of successful caught-stealings fell to an all-time low of 19.8 percent.

Cut to now, though, and catchers are fighting back. The league's caught-stealing percentage is up to 21.8. Still low, granted, but what's driving it bodes well for further increases in future seasons. As noted by Ben Clemens of FanGraphs, throws to second base are getting faster.

The catching revolution is also happening in the batter's box. Backstops have added eight points to their collective batting average from 2023 to 2024, and their 103 wRC+ would mark a new modern high if the season ended today.

This is the view from 30,000 feet up, anyway. The view on the ground is arguably better, as that's where it's that much easier to appreciate William and Willson Contreras, Adley Rutschman, Will Smith and all the other stars who are making the revolution happen.

Loser: Umpires

Hunter Wendelstedt (L) and Aaron Boone (R) Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

As for which slice of baseball's on-field personnel is having the worst year, let's just say that the umpiring ranks could actually be improved by adding Frank Drebin.

Umpires have, if nothing else, simply been more inaccurate in 2024. Manager challenges have been successful 53.8 percent of the time, up from 48.5 percent in 2023. There have also been more bad ball calls from behind the plate, particularly with balls in the strike zone.

That Ángel Hernández is working full-time again after missing much of 2023 with a back injury is a factor, to be sure. But the real issue is the same one that's always existed, which is that there basically is no accountability system for umpires.

My hope is that the looming introduction of the automated strike zone will finally bring about an end to the era of zero accountability for umpires. To his credit, Max Scherzer has a cool idea for how the ABS could be used.

"Let the electronic strike zone rank the umpires," the veteran ace said recently, "and then we need to have a conversation about the bottom 10 percent or whatever you want to declare what the bottom is and talk about relegating those umpires to the minor leagues and getting the best umpires in the game."

In the meantime, we can all agree on this much: Anything would be better than the status quo.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

   

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