Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

2024 NFL Rookie of the Year Predictions, Player Awards and More from B/R Staff

BR NFL Staff

The 2024 NFL draft is in the books, and teams have signed several undrafted free agents. As the post-draft dust settles, it's time to share initial thoughts on the class.

Which rookie quarterback will finish with the most passing yards? Who will lead the class in rushing yards? Like Puka Nacua last year, who's going to emerge as a surprise star?

Bleacher Report analysts Brent Sobleski, Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox and Maurice Moton will answer those questions and cast ballots for several rookie categories.

They'll give insight into why some rookies will play up to and exceed expectations and also give out an award for the biggest flop.

After hours of deliberation, our crew is ready to reveal the winners of each category.

Most Passing Yards

Quarterback Caleb Williams Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (4 votes)

The B/R panel came to a consensus on this one, and it's hard to argue against it.

As the No. 1 overall pick, Caleb Williams will likely start over Tyson Bagent, who went undrafted and then threw for three touchdowns and six interceptions in five games (four starts) last year.

Moton believes the Chicago Bears have set up an environment that gives Williams a chance to etch his name in team record books.

"The Bears acquired six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen from the Los Angeles Chargers. They also drafted Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick in the draft. Allen and Odunze will join DJ Moore, who recorded career highs in multiple receiving categories last year, to form one of the league's top wide receiver trios.

"By the way, tight end Cole Kmet recorded career highs in catches (73) and receiving yards (719) last year. With the addition of Gerald Everett, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron can stress defenses with two-tight end sets.

"Speaking of Waldron, as a play-caller, he helped Russell Wilson put together his last Pro Bowl year in 2021 and elevated Geno Smith, who won 2022 Comeback Player of the Year.

"Don't be surprised if Williams not only leads the rookie class in passing yards but also becomes the first Bears quarterback to throw for 4,000-plus yards in a season."

Others Receiving Votes: J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote)

Most Rushing Yards

Running back Jonathon Brooks Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers (3 votes)

Most of our panel gave Jonathon Brooks the nod for most rushing yards even though he tore his ACL last November.

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Brooks might be cleared by July 1.

If Brooks handles a decent workload early in the season, he'll quickly become the runaway favorite for this category.

Moton seems skeptical of a rookie coming off a significant injury, and he went in another direction with his pick.

"The Carolina Panthers took the first running back off the draft board, moving up for Brooks in the second round, which suggests they have an early plan for him," Moton said.

"Even if Brooks returns to the field in July, he may not take on a full workload, and that could impact his playing time through the first few weeks of the season. Carolina doesn't have to rush the rookie into a big role with running backs Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders on the roster.

"For this category, go against the grain and consider Trey Benson.

"In the Arizona Cardinals backfield, Benson will line up alongside James Conner, who missed four games in each of 2022 and 2023. Conner has rushed for more than 782 yards in only two out of seven seasons.

"Quarterback Kyler Murray has contributed to the Cardinals' ground attack, but he's finished with fewer carries per game every year since 2020.

"Because of Benson's home run speed coupled with potential opportunities to share the groundwork in Arizona, he could easily lead this team and the 2024 class in rushing yards."

Others Receiving Votes: Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote), Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins (1 vote)

Most Receiving Yards

Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (4 votes)

Our panel went with the chalky pick for most receiving yards.

The B/R scouting department graded Marvin Harrison Jr. as the best overall prospect in the 2024 draft class. He'll play for the Arizona Cardinals, who had a major need at wide receiver.

Following the free-agent departure of wideout Marquise Brown, Harrison should see plenty of targets from quarterback Kyler Murray.

Brown signed with the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite his outlook as a possible starter with the team, Gagnon picked Xavier Worthy to lead the rookie class in receiving yards.

"Two words: Patrick Mahomes," Gagnon quipped. "This is mainly circumstance-based. Worthy is going to have so many opportunities to make splash plays with his speed in that offense."

Others Receiving Votes: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote)

Most Tackles

Linebacker Junior Colson Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Junior Colson, Los Angeles Chargers (4 votes)

In his last two collegiate years, Junior Colson led the Michigan Wolverines in tackles.

So, our panel believes Colson will bring that same energy and production to the Los Angeles Chargers under defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who held the same position with the Wolverines over the previous two years.

Moton broke down why he didn't hesitate to vote for Colson.

"Typically, linebackers lead defenses in tackles because of their responsibilities in run support," Moton noted. "In an underwhelming linebacker class, Colson gets the nod for most tackles as he reunites with Minter.

"Colson won't have to adjust within the system because he's played in it for the last two years. The physical quick-trigger linebacker should be able to rack up 100-plus tackles under Minter for the second time in three years."

Others Receiving Votes: Tyrice Knight, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote)

Most Sacks

Vikings edge-rusher Dallas Turner Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Dallas Turner, Minnesota Vikings (2 votes), Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams (2 votes)

This year's draft started with a run of 14 consecutive offensive players before the Indianapolis Colts selected Laiatu Latu with the 15th overall pick.

Yet only Sobleski picked Latu to lead the class in sacks, and the leading vote-getters were Dallas Turner and Jared Verse with two apiece.

Davenport sees a mashup of two elite pass-rushers in Turner.

"Alabama's Dallas Turner was Bleacher Report's second-ranked edge-rusher in this class, but he may well have the highest ceiling. The 6'4", 247-pounder with 4.46-second speed has the sort of burst and bend that just can't be taught.

"Rookie pass-rushers have often taken some time to adjust to the NFL. But Turner has the kind of ability that can overcome that.

"There's some Micah Parsons meets Myles Garrett (because hyperbole) in Turner, and playing opposite the underrated Jonathan Greenard, he's going to register a dozen sacks and be in the thick of the DROY conversation."

Others Receiving Votes: Laiatu Latu, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote)

Most Interceptions

Eagles defensive back Cooper DeJean Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Cooper DeJean, Philadelphia Eagles, 2 votes

For full transparency, Davenport and Moton casted their votes for Cooper DeJean, which gives him the award for the category.

As a versatile defensive back, DeJean could line up as an outside cornerback, nickelback or safety in the Philadelphia Eagles secondary.

Like versatile defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who recorded six interceptions with the Eagles in 2022 under former defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, DeJean could force turnovers in bunches as a chess piece in Vic Fangio's secondary.

Knox picked safety Kamren Kinchens to lead this category because of general manager Les Snead's draft track record and the rookie's fit in the Los Angeles Rams defensive system.

"Part of this choice comes down to Les Snead's recent trend of finding stars outside of Round 1. The other part comes from Kinchens' game film. Poor pre-draft testing overshadowed the fact that he has tremendous field vision, a knack for locating the football and good enough movement skills to man the back end of the defense.

"Kinchens can be a ball hawk in Chris Shula's defense, which should look a lot like Raheem Morris' defense of the last three years. Jordan Fuller snagged three interceptions last season, and I think Kinchens can top that number.

"With an improved offensive line and no shortage of offensive playmakers, the Rams will keep opposing quarterbacks chasing points this season."

Others Receiving Votes: Terrion Arnold, Detroit Lions (1 vote), Kamren Kinchens, Miami (1 vote), Tyler Nubin, New York Giants (1 vote)

Biggest Flop

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix Hyoung Chang/The Denver Post

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (3 votes)

This is the award that no one wants to take home. Our crew has strong doubts about how Bo Nix will pan out with the Denver Broncos.

Sobleski gave the Broncos a D for selecting Nix with the 12th pick.

"A significant portion of the Oregon Ducks offense was built around quick-hitters, half-field reads and throws at or behind the line of scrimmage. Some outstanding layered throws can be seen in Nix's film as well, but he isn't the same natural thrower as other prospects in this year's class.

"With five quarterbacks already off the board, the Denver Broncos chose not to risk losing their guy. But they pulled the trigger on a second-round quarterback with the 12th overall pick."

Gagnon chose wide receiver Malik Nabers, who, in his opinion, will be limited by quarterback Daniel Jones.

"Two words: Daniel Jones. I don't trust him or that offense, and he himself needs more polish. I think Nabers can become a great player, but I doubt we see much of that in Year 1."

Others Receiving Votes: Malik Nabers, New York Giants, (1 vote), Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons (1 vote)

Surprise Star

Packers RB MarShawn Lloyd Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos (1 vote), MarShawn Lloyd, running back, Green Bay Packers (1 vote), Malik Washington, Miami Dolphins (1 vote), Roman Wilson, wide receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), Xavier Worthy, wide receiver, Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote)

Just like last year, our crew didn't come to a consensus on a surprise star, but we may look back on these candidates as solid choices.

Knox attached his name to late-third-rounder MarShawn Lloyd, who will share touches with Josh Jacobs and AJ Dillon in the Green Bay Packers backfield. He explained why a running back committee won't stop Lloyd from breaking out.

"Based on the good-year, bad-year trajectory of Josh Jacobs' career, Green Bay's new veteran back might keep MarShawn Lloyd on the bench. However, I don't think Matt LaFleur will abandon his two-back system, and Lloyd is already a more capable back than AJ Dillon.

"Lloyd can add an explosive element to the backfield that Green Bay currently lacks. I think he'll be a more capable pass-catcher than he was in college, too. I don't view him as an every-down player, but I think the chunk plays will come often enough to make him a star for one of the league's up-and-coming squads."

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Bears QB Caleb Williams Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (2 votes), Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (2 votes)

A quarterback isn't quite a lock to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Since 2020, signal-callers and wide receivers have won it twice apiece.

While two of our analysts picked quarterback Caleb Williams and two went with wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., Sobleski chose dark-horse candidate J.J. McCarthy.

"In a twist of irony, the prospect everyone knocked for not throwing enough at the collegiate level should come into the league and put up significant numbers to warrant strong Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration. Yes, we're talking about new Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

"The questions regarding McCarthy's evaluation never centered on whether he could make the throws. Instead, we didn't see a big enough sample size to know whether he could do so consistently, particularly in late-game situations. Fortunately, McCarthy landed in the best possible situation.

"The Vikings are dynamic at wide receiver with last year's first-round pick Jordan Addison and the game's best overall target, Justin Jefferson. T.J. Hockenson is a Pro Bowl-caliber tight end. The offensive line is relatively strong. Aaron Jones is more than capable as the starting running back.

"Most importantly, McCarthy enters a quarterback-friendly scheme in which he can be taught by two former NFL quarterbacks in head coach/offensive play-caller Kevin O'Connell and quarterbacks coach Josh McCown."

Others Receiving Votes: J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote)

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Rams edge-rusher Jared Verse Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Dallas Turner, Minnesota Vikings (2 votes), Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams (2 votes)

A pass-rusher has won Defensive Rookie of the Year in four of the last five years. Four of our panelists followed that trend, though Sobleski made his choice with a different perspective.

"Other prospects will put up bigger numbers. Some will point toward the Indianapolis Colts' Laiatu Latu, Minnesota Vikings' Dallas Turner or Los Angeles Rams' Jared Verse for their potential sack production.

"Maybe big tackle numbers or interceptions are your things. In choosing the Detroit Lions' Terrion Arnold, it's a holistic look at how he can drastically improve the defense of a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

"Last season, the Lions secondary ranked among the league's bottom six in pass defense. Injuries certainly played a part. But the organization knew it wasn't good enough in that specific area, hence the trade for veteran cornerback Carlton Davis and Arnold's selection in this year's first round.

"Arnold is a physical, versatile—former safety convert—and smart defensive back. He's simultaneously fluid in coverage and very strong against the run. As long as the Lions show marked improvement against opposing passing games, Arnold will be a huge reason and deserve consideration for individual awards."

Others Receiving Votes: Terrion Arnold, Detroit Lions (1 vote)

Rookie of the Year

Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (2 votes), Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (2 votes)

For Rookie of the Year, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Caleb Williams tied for the lead in votes with two apiece.

Davenport thinks individuals on our panel overlooked the obvious choice.

"Anyone not picking Marvin Harrison Jr. to be the NFL's top rookie in 2024 is overthinking things—and I say that as someone who knows that it's a quarterback's world and that Caleb Williams walks into a pretty favorable offense and Jayden Daniels can be electrifying. They are the past two Heisman Trophy winners.

"Harrison is still the best prospect in the class. He's going to show it. This is a youngster who was an NFL wide receiver as a sophomore at Ohio State. A receiver who passed on just about all of the pre-draft process because rather than train for workouts he was "training to play football."

"He's the unquestioned No. 1 receiver in Arizona before he ever plays a game. He has a quarterback in Kyler Murray who will realize by July that peppering Harrison with targets is a good idea. And he's going to destroy Puka Nacua's record for receiving yards in a season.

"A record that stood for decades falls two years in a row. Book it."

Others Receiving Votes: J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote)

   

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