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10 Takeaways From MLB's First Month of the 2024 Season

Zachary D. Rymer

If anyone is still clinging to things they thought they knew about the 2024 MLB season back on Opening Day, it's time to throw those out. What matters now is what we actually know.

Which is a lot, for the record, but the idea here is to keep it to 10 takeaways from the 2024 season so far.

These are basically 10 observations that have been spun into opinions about what the heck is going on. Six concern goings-on with individual players, while the other four touch on team- and league-related trends.

To prove I'm not messing around, I want to start by doing something that's been hard to do over the last few seasons: Send glowing praise in the general direction of the Oakland Athletics.

MLB's Most Electric Pitcher Plays for the A's

Mason Miller Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images

The A's are a bad baseball team with a lousy stadium and the worst owner in the league. Yada yada and so forth.

Rather than rehash those valid yet tired takes on the A's, let's instead acknowledge that they're home to the most exciting show in MLB right now: Mason Miller in the ninth inning.

Whereas the righty was on merely a few radars as a rookie in 2023, now he's on everyone's radar after what he did to the New York Yankees last week. It was evisceration at its most gnarly, as he faced eight batters and whiffed six of them.

Even in an era in which every pitcher throws gas, Miller is different. The 6'5", 200-pounder owns 25 percent of all the 100 mph pitches that have been thrown this season. In the last six years, only he and Emmanuel Clase have achieved a market share that large.

For anyone who only just got to know the 25-year-old via the Yankees series: Yes, he's that nasty against everyone.

Miller has faced 48 batters in 2024, resulting in 25 strikeouts against seven hits and four walks. His actual ERA is 1.46. His expected ERA is 0.88, the lowest of any qualified hurler.

Having Mike Trout Back Is Just the Best

Mike Trout Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Mike Trout has done many things in his 14-year career, up to and including winning three American League MVPs and amassing more career WAR than Ken Griffey Jr.

But you know what he's never done? Lead the majors in home runs.

It's true. Or at least, it's true so long as you don't count what he's doing right now. He's the first to 10 long balls in 2024, tying his personal high for homers in April in doing so.

To even talk about how Trout has started this season feels risky. Like one is in danger of jinxing it. And after all he's been through over the last three seasons—i.e., playing in only 49 percent of the Los Angeles Angels' games because of injuries—nobody wants that.

Then again, to not get excited about Trout also feels like blatant Debbie Downer-ship.

He really has been that good, after all. His power output is backed up by solid peripherals and he's even stealing bases again, swiping as many just this month as he did in 2021, 2022 and 2023 combined.

Trout just needs to stay healthy, which is unfortunately up to the baseball gods...but dare I say they owe us this one?

After Some Delay, Elly De La Cruz Is As Advertised

Elly De La Cruz Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Quick, name the most exciting player in baseball right now.

Never mind. I'll do it for everyone: Elly De La Cruz.

I should disclose that I've had this lede in my back pocket ever since the Cincinnati Reds first called him up last June. I mean, come on. A 6'5", 200-pound switch-hitting shortstop with power, speed and arm strength? Are we not all that guy in our baseball dreams?

The hype faded as the 22-year-old mostly struggled last season, but it should be all the way back now and then some.

Despite striking out more than his fair share, De La Cruz is getting on-base at a .395 clip and slugging .573. He also has seven homers and 18 stolen bases, and he is the only player in better than the 90th percentile for exit velocity, sprint speed and walk rate.

As much about the stats, though, it's also about the feeling of watching De La Cruz. It's that feeling of knowing he could do something amazing at any moment, and that he'll do it so amazingly that it'll still be an overwhelming sensory experience.

Worried About Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? That's Fair.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Mark Blinch/Getty Images

Most career trajectories ultimately resemble a bell curve, but what you want is for that curve to play out over a long timeline and not, say, six years.

Which is to say it's fair to be worrying about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He hasn't been good this year, batting just .218 with three home runs. And it doesn't, or at least shouldn't, make any sense.

He's a former No. 1 prospect who had a 48-homer season in 2021. He's also still only 25 and ostensibly one of MLB's brightest stars. Not just anyone can go on the cover of MLB The Show, you know.

And have you seen Guerrero's peripheral stats lately? They're pretty good. The walks and the hard-hit balls are there, and that should be translating into results.

Ah, but didn't we all think the same thing throughout 2023? We did, yet the results never came. And if you go back to September 2022, you'll see that he ranks ninth from the bottom in fWAR among hitters with at least 800 plate appearances.

Which is to say that the gulf between Guerrero's supposed stardom and his actual stardom not only exists but it's also growing. It's not what the Toronto Blue Jays want, and to be watching it happen feels tantamount to robbery. This guy is supposed to entertaining us, darn it.

We're Still Waiting on the Yankees' 1-2 Punch

Aaron Judge Rich Schultz/Getty Images

There's still plenty of time for the Yankees' Juan Soto-Aaron Judge duo to be as advertised, which was basically as a modern-day Ruth-Gehrig extravaganza.

Not that there's any rush with Soto, of course. He's taken to MLB's biggest stage with a .997 OPS and a series of crowd-pleasing moments. Not since Daniel Day-Lewis in Gangs of New York has anyone so thoroughly nailed a big part in a New York setting.

As for Judge, well, the wait continues.

Two years removed from bashing 62 home runs, the 6'7", 282-pounder is looming a lot smaller than expected. Even after homering in back-to-back games over the weekend, he's still only hitting .211 and slugging 150 percentage points below his career norm.

Could this merely be Judge still trying to find his mechanics? Yeah, sure. Could it also be him still trying to adjust to the toe injury he sustained last June? One hopes it's not that, but he himself has made it clear that he isn't fully healed.

Whatever the case, the Yankees' fingers are crossed. As much as general manager Brian Cashman is talking a good game about locking Soto up beyond 2024, there remains a chance that the supposedly mighty Soto-Judge duo will never actually get that mighty and end after one season, to boot.

The Dodgers May Have the Best 1-2 Punch Ever

Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts. Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Los Angeles Dodgers, on the other hand, are getting everything they could have wanted from their 1-2 punch.

There's Mookie Betts, who's batting .387 with a 1.138 OPS. And then there's Shohei Ohtani, who's rocking a .336 average and a 1.038 OPS.

Let's also not gloss over that Betts and Ohtani are a literal one-two punch. If both maintain their 1.000 OPSes, the Dodgers will join this list of teams who've ever gotten such a high mark from both the No. 1 and No. 2 spots in the lineup:

It would be a first, in other words, and there's little reason to think these two can't pull it off. They would have combined for a 1.024 OPS if they had been teammates in 2023, and the eye-popping results they have in 2024 are backed up by equally eye-popping metrics.

Though they're 18-12 and leading the majors in runs, what the Dodgers need is for their superstar duo to expand into a superstar trio. That will happen whenever Freddie Freeman starts hitting for power again, which should only be a matter of time.

The White Sox Are Not a Good Baseball Team

Erick Fedde Jason Miller/Getty Images

The Chicago White Sox won a series over the weekend.

No, really. This is a thing that happened. They took on the Tampa Bay Rays and won all three games. The sweep mostly came by way of an offensive onslaught, with the White Sox totaling 21 runs.

Which is good, because they really didn't want make any more L-related history.

With 22 losses in their first 25 games, Chicago had gone where only four teams had ever gone before. It had been outscored by 85 runs in the process, with no losing streaks shorter than four games.

Though the White Sox have the No. 3 farm system in the most recent rankings from B/R's Joel Reuter, the only immediate hope belongs to their opponents in the AL Central. As it is, the Minnesota Twins (4-0) and Kansas City Royals (6-1) have already gotten a head start on inflating their records by blowing up the South Siders.

Badness this severe would be comical if it didn't feel so tragic. When you look back at teams that had José Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yoán Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodón, all you can feel is frustration that there aren't better memories to lean on in dark times like these.

The AL West and NL Central Have Traded Places

Josh Hader Tim Warner/Getty Images

When B/R's Brandon Scott ranked MLB's six divisions on March 15, this is how he ordered them:

  1. AL East
  2. AL West
  3. NL West
  4. NL East
  5. NL Central
  6. AL Central

It was hard to argue with that at the time, but let's just say—and this is by no means meant to throw him under the bus—the passing of time hasn't done Brandon any favors.

The AL West? It's a mess. The Houston Astros (9-19) are playing like they're struggling with both the atmosphere and gravitational pull of planet Earth, and neither the Seattle Mariners (15-13) nor the defending champion Texas Rangers (15-14) have really taken off yet.

The NL Central? It's...not a mess. It's actually quite good, particularly with the Milwaukee Brewers (17-10) and Chicago Cubs (17-11) among MLB's best teams and De La Cruz and the Reds (15-13) making an early case for a wild-card berth.

This switcheroo feels like the kind of prank the Joker would play on Gotham City, but that doesn't make it any less real. And mostly thanks to the Astros not being, well, the Astros, the implications for the broader playoff race are likewise real.

It Doesn't Feel Like There's a Favorite

Travis d'Arnaud, left, and Spencer Strider. Todd Kirkland/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Speaking of writing that hasn't aged well, I lumped the Astros in with Atlanta and the Dodgers when I sorted all 30 teams into World Series contender tiers in March.

According to FanGraphs, Houston's chances of winning the title have since fallen from 11.7 to 5.8 percent. Its pitching, especially, has been stricken with the terrible combination of being banged up and bad, as its 4.92 ERA is the fifth-highest in the league.

This should be good news for Atlanta and Los Angeles, but they also have their issues. The former just doesn't seem nearly as dangerous after Spencer Strider's season-ending surgery, while the latter is still working on getting its own starting pitching in order.

Otherwise, Judge's slump is but one valid concern for a Yankees roster that generally comes off as thin and aging. The Baltimore Orioles are younger and more exciting, but starters not named Corbin Burnes have thus far been less than reliable.

The Brewers, likewise, are struggling with starting pitching depth, while the Cubs' pitching issues are more so focused on their bullpen.

And so on and so on, all the way down the line. The general picture is that of a chaotic race for this year's World Series. Confusing? You bet? But also more interesting? Yes, that too.

Despite All the Pitching Injuries, Hitting Remains Hard

Jackson Holliday Greg Fiume/Getty Images

Let's end with what's been the dominant story of the 2024 season so far, which is unfortunately one that's not good for MLB: all the pitching injuries.

It's been rough out there, alright, as the injured list was crowded with name-brand aces even before two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell hit the IL with an adductor strain on Wednesday.

It's bad. Bad enough to make one wonder if the league's entire approach to pitching needs to be rethought.

Yet as much as you'd think this would be good for hitters, here's the reality: Even when compared to last April, they're experiencing losses in all three triple-slash categories.

All the usual explanations can be applied. There's still a lot of fastball velocity out there, but also increasingly fewer fastballs to hit. The Red Sox are taking things to an unusual extreme, throwing the lowest percentage of four-seam fastballs in recorded history.

And then there's what Jackson Holliday, who's still MLB's No. 1 prospect, might say right now after going from a 1.077 OPS in the minors to a 2-for-34 showing in the majors followed by a quick demotion:

Hitting is just plain hard, man.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

   

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