The NFL draft is almost here. Fans have descended on Detroit. Teams have organized draft plans.

We have a good idea who the first pick will be, but after that? It's about to get real.

There's a part of draft week that is every bit the constant as Roger Goodell being booed mercilessly every time he steps to the microphone. In the days leading up to the draft, the NFL rumor mill goes thermonuclear. Reports. Speculation. Disinformation spread by the teams themselves. All these pour onto the NFL landscape like a flood.

Now, much of the "info" that comes out during this time is complete hokum. Fibs are being told in the hope a player will drop a few spots. Folks are just wrong. But there are kernels of truth as well. The draft may be filled with surprises, but in the days before it we hear some speculation that turns out to be spot on.

The hard part is figuring out which is which. But we'll give it a shot.

Jayden Daniels Favorite to Go Second Overall

There is very little question that quarterbacks will be taken with the first three picks in the 2024 NFL draft. There's also next to no doubt that USC's Caleb Williams will go No. 1 overall to the Chicago Bears.

However, from there the waters muddy a bit. But per Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, the oddsmakers at DraftKings believe that when the Washington Commanders step to the podium to make the second overall pick, their choice will be 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels of LSU.

"Daniels has regained his standing as the favorite to be the second overall pick in the 2024 draft," Florio wrote. "The latest DraftKings odds update has Daniels at -160. North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye is at +150. Just a few days ago, Maye and Daniels had identical odds of -115, after Daniels had been the clear favorite. The shift happened after Washington brought four of the top quarterback prospects to town for a joint visit. The betting trends are typically a reflection of the mood as dictated by the news and the vibe that comes from it. Currently, the mood is that it will be Daniels at No. 2."

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It makes sense for the Commanders to take Daniels over Maye. Yes, the latter is Bleacher Report's top-ranked quarterback prospect—ahead of even Williams. But Daniels offers NFL teams both the experience that comes with attempting over 1,400 passes over five years at Arizona State and LSU and athleticism that has evoked comparisons to Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

"Jayden is close to Lamar Jackson," an NFL quarterbacks coach told Bruce Feldman of The Athletic. "He's not as strong physically as Lamar, but none of these other guys can run like him, and I saw the downfield throws, the middle of the hash throws, and the timing, the accuracy from him. He just does it all for me. I'm confident about him."

Apparently, so is Washington.

Marvin Harrison Jr. NOT the WR1 in the Class of 2024?

For most of the pre-draft process, the general consensus has been that Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is the top prospect in the 2024 class at his position. As a matter of fact, Harrison is B/R's No. 1 prospect overall this year.

However, as Bruce Feldman wrote at The Athletic, that feeling is not unanimous, with some coaches and scouts stating that they prefer LSU's Malik Nabers.

"It's Nabers and then there's a gap," an offensive assistant said. "He is the best wide receiver in the draft in a couple of years, maybe more. He is Tyreek Hill combined with both of those San Francisco guys (Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk). He is so explosive. He has a second gear. He can stop on a dime. He breaks tackles. You can't jam him because he's just too quick and if you miss at all, he's gonna outrun you. He's really competitive but he can be a pain in the ass. He'll be the guy who'll have something to say to the coordinator coming off the field. He's got that edge to him where he doesn't know when to let up. He doesn't know that those guys are on his side."

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This is "silly season" run amok. Or teams trying to spread disinformation in the hope that Harrison drops on draft day. Or backlash because Harison elected not to participate in pre-draft workouts, choosing to let his tape do the talking.

And oh boy does that tape talk.

Harrison does everything at a high level. He has size. Speed. Soft hands. He's the best route-runner in the class. And he just so happens to be the son of a Hall of Fame wideout.

Harrison was NFL-ready a year ago. He's going to be a difference-maker in the pros from the jump. And if he's there for the Arizona Cardinals at No. 4, it would take a Godfather offer for this analyst to pass on racing to the podium to turn in a card with his name on it.

Texas DT Byron Murphy Believes He'll Be a Top-16 Pick

Where the defensive tackle position is concerned, the No. 1 prospect at the position is Byron Murphy II of Texas, a 6'1" 297-pounder that Bleacher Report's Matt Holder wrote possesses an impressive blend of power and quickness.

"Murphy's get-off and overall quickness are what pops off the tape at first, especially for his size," Holder said. "(He) either gets into offensive linemen shortly after the snap or uses his impressive agility and quickness to beat guards across their faces when slanting. He also has good pad level and tree trunks for legs that make him hard to move."

While speaking to the Dallas Morning News, Murphy said that he believes he's worthy of being drafted early on Thursday night—and said that he's been told he won't make it out of the front half of Round 1.

"With my style of play, I feel like nobody can play like me," he said. "Nobody can do the things I do. I feel like I'm one of a kind. My tape speaks for itself. I've been hearing that I won't go later than 16."

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A year ago at this point, Murphy was a relative unknown. But he followed up an impressive 2023 season with a strong showing in the pre-draft process. Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, not only will Murphy not make it out of Round 1, but he may not get out of the top 10.

"It's possible a defender might not be picked until Atlanta at No. 8 or Chicago at No. 9," Schefter said. "Murphy could be a consideration for both teams. Murphy, who had five sacks last season, is talented, plays a coveted position and has gotten clean character reports. He might interest new Falcons coach Raheem Morris, who had Aaron Donald dominate at that position when he was the coordinator in Los Angeles."

Comparing Murphy to Donald might be pushing it, and it's possible that he'll drop past the Falcons and Bears and out of the top 10. But there are too many teams with a need on the interior of the line for Murphy to get past the Seattle Seahawks at No. 16.

No Defensive Players Drafted in the Top 10?

The 2024 draft class is loaded at a number of positions. It's possible that for the first time since 1983, six quarterbacks will be drafted in Round 1. If you are an NFL team searching for a high-end wide receiver or an offensive tackle, it's a good year.

With that said, this year's class is heavier at the top on offense than the defensive side of the ball—so much so that Bruce Feldman of The Athletic reported one NFL scout said he believes the top 10 will come and go without a single defensive player being taken.

"Nobody wants to play the run," a defensive assistant said. "Everybody just wants to rush the passer, but if you never get to third-and-8, how do you pass-rush? We say it all the time, you have to earn the right to rush the passer. So, we have to figure out: Is it a deficiency in who they are, or is it a deficiency in what they were coached?"

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On some level, those coaches have a point. Alabama's Dallas Turner is a talented young edge-rusher, but he isn't Myles Garrett or Nick Bosa. There are a handful of cornerbacks who could go on Day 1, but no Sauce Gardner-types who are a mortal lock to be drafted in the top 10.

At least three (and quite possibly four quarterbacks) will be drafted in the top 10. There could easily be three wide receivers taken in that range. Throw in an offensive tackle or two, and you have at least the possibility of an all-offense top 10.

However, it only takes one team to break that streak, and there are plenty of teams in the top 10 that need help rushing the passer or in the secondary. Someone will break the offensive run and draft a defender, with Bleacher Report's latest mock draft forecasting that the Atlanta Falcons will make Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell the first defensive player drafted at No. 8.

Drake Maye a Candidate to 'Redshirt' in 2024?

North Carolina's Drake Maye isn't going to have to wait long to hear his name called Thursday—Bleacher Report's No. 1 quarterback prospect will most likely be a top-three pick. But how long Maye could wait before making his first NFL start could be another matter.

Per Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports, some around the NFL believe the 6'4", 223-pounder would be well-served to sit and learn for a while in the pros before taking the field.

"Maye could be the third quarterback—and third player—selected Thursday night," Jones said. "He has the tools, but one quarterback coach called him 'raw as s--t' and said he needs to clean up his footwork. One thing I've heard around the league is that Maye, more than any of the other top quarterbacks, would benefit from sitting a year. 'He's a prime candidate for a redshirt year,' one coach said."

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To be clear, I'm not buying the idea that Maye will sit in 2024—that will depend largely on where he begins his career. If the New England Patriots take Maye at No. 3, he could sit for a while behind Jacoby Brissett while the Pats add talent around him. But if a team trades up to grab Maye like the Minnesota Vikings or Las Vegas Raiders, there could be increased pressure for him to play early.

What this analyst is buying is the idea that Maye should sit. As Jones wrote, Maye's footwork is a work in progress. Maye was a two-year starter in Chapel Hill, but progressing through his reads is another area where he could stand to improve—especially if his primary read is covered. He can also be flustered by post-snap defensive adjustments.

Maye can improve in all those areas either on the practice field or by watching a more experienced quarterback play. And being patient with Maye could make more sense than throwing him to the proverbial wolves, watching him struggle and grumbles growing that he's a "bust."

Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. a Top-15 Pick?

It's no secret that the Las Vegas Raiders need a quarterback—with the exception of USC's Caleb Williams, the Raiders have been at least tangentially linked to every prospect at the position who could go on Day 1 of the draft.

As ESPN's Matt Miller wrote, the Raiders may have settled on a signal-caller—one they like enough to draft well ahead of where many pundits expect him to be selected.

"One constant I keep hearing from people I trust is that the Raiders really do like Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and could select him at No. 13 overall," Miller said. "That would qualify as a surprise, despite the fact that Penix is a beautiful thrower from the pocket and has the best overall arm strength in this class. His medical history -- four straight season-ending injuries while at Indiana -- and his lack of mobility are concerns enough that he is ranked No. 40 on my board and is generally seen as a Day 2 prospect, but the buzz here is starting to heat up connecting the Raiders to him in Round 1. Las Vegas signed Gardner Minshew, but this team was 26th in QBR last season (40.1) and needs a long-term solution."

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The Raiders pulling the trigger on Penix at No. 13 can't be ruled out—desperation under center makes teams do weird things, and Penix does have some things going for him. He's arguably the best arm talent in the class, and he throws a beautiful deep pass.

But 13th overall would be reaching and then some for a player who will be 24 when his rookie season starts who has the least mobility and longest injury history of any of this year's top QB prospects.

If the Raiders want Penix, they could likely trade back a handful of spots and still land him. Or perhaps even trade back into Round 1 late on Thursday evening while using the 13th pick to address another need with a pick who's better value.

Say Alabama offensive tackle JC Latham—just as an example.

Patriots 'Open for Business' but Have Yet to Receive 'Serious' Offer

After moving on from Mac Jones in the offseason, the New England Patriots are widely expected to select a quarterback with the third overall pick. But as Jason Ounpraseuth wrote at NESN, Pats de facto general manager Eliot Wolf surprised some by stating that New England is "open for business" and could be amenable to trading down.

However, per Matt Daniels and Karen Guregian of Mass Live, the offers the team has received to date aren't exactly moving the needle.

"According to one source," they said, "the Patriots have fielded calls and trade offers for their first-round pick. However, the source indicated that those offers were 'laughable' and not close to getting the Patriots to move down. As of now, the team is still waiting for a 'serious' offer."

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It's understandable that the Patriots would at least consider a trade down, especially if they aren't infatuated with whichever of the "Big Three" quarterbacks are left after Chicago and Washington pick—the Pats need a lot more than just a new quarterback. But it's also certainly understandable that they aren't just going to give the pick away considering what the Miami Dolphins got for 1.03 in 2021.

The problem right now is the aforementioned Washington Commanders. We know that the Bears are going to take Caleb Williams, at least from all indications. But while we know that Vegas oddsmakers think the Commanders are going to take Jayden Daniels, it's not a certainty. If, say, the Minnesota Vikings want Daniels and are willing to move up, they aren't going to make their best offer for pick No. 3 only to see him come off the board at 1.02.

It's possible that Thursday night, a team like Minnesota will throw a huge offer at the Patriots—one that they either can't pass up or at least would have to seriously consider. But given how badly the Trey Lance trade turned out for the San Francisco 49ers, it isn't especially likely.

That could leave the Patriots in the unenviable position of drafting a signal-caller they aren't especially enamored with. Maybe they should draft another one in Round 6.

Worked out OK once before.

J.J. McCarthy a Top-Five Pick?

There isn't a more fascinating story in this year's NFL draft than that of Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. No quarterback's draft stock has risen more since the college football season ended (with Michigan winning the national title).

There was a time when mentioning McCarthy as a first-round pick would have generated eye rolls. Now there's zero question that he'll go on Day 1. In Bleacher Report's most recent mock draft, McCarthy went to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 11. And as Douglas Clawson of CBS Sports wrote, there continues to be speculation that McCarthy could go even higher—like the top-five.

"Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is the clear wild card of the 2024 NFL Draft," he said. The hype train in the last month has been a sight to behold. He is a top-five pick in most mock drafts. Many, including former Vikings GM Rick Spielman, have linked McCarthy to the Vikings, who have the draft capital (No. 11 and No. 23 overall picks) to move up in the draft for McCarthy. Former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh called him the best quarterback in this draft."

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To his credit, Clawson goes on to explain in some detail why McCarthy should not be a top-five pick, which would likely involve a team sacrificing substantial draft capital to trade up. McCarthy does quite a few things well, but he's not elite in any area. He's a low-ceiling player. A more mobile Kirk Cousins is as good as he's going to get.

The thing is, NFL teams know this, too. They also know the history of teams giving up multiple firsts to move up to draft a quarterback, which is…ungood. Teams are going to be reluctant to gamble when the payoff is limited.

Now, McCarthy isn't getting past the Raiders at 13th overall, and he probably won't make it that far. But giving a boatload of picks to the Chargers (the likeliest trade partner) for McCarthy would be equal parts unnecessary and a mistake.