Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo Jonathan Wiggs/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Potential Ripple Effects of Patriots Trading No. 3 Pick in 2024 NFL Draft

Kristopher Knox

The 2024 NFL draft is only days away, and yet, there's still plenty that cannot be presumed about the early first round. Quarterbacks will be in demand when the draft kicks off on Thursday, and the first three or four selections could involve signal-callers.

However, the quarterback-needy New England Patriots, who currently hold the third overall selection, might not take one. According to Chad Graff and Dianna Russini of The Athletic, New England is "listening and taking calls" from teams looking to trade up and into the No. 3 spot.

The report falls in line with what the Patriots have said publicly.

"We're open for business in the first round and in every round," director of scouting Eliot Wolf told reporters last Thursday.

With roughly 48 hours to go, New England has become the biggest wild card of Round 1. The Patriots' decision to use or trade the third pick could heavily impact the rest of the opening round—if it doesn't generate outright chaos.

Here, we'll examine the Patriots' most realistic options with the No. 3 pick and what effects each could have on Thursday night. Factors like draft order, team needs, player potential and any relevant recent buzz were considered.

Patriots Stay Put and Draft a QB

North Carolina QB prospect Drake Maye Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Pick: QB3

The Fallout: Picks No. 4 and 5 Become Increasingly Valuable

If the Patriots don't find a trade partner, taking a quarterback at No. 3 is likely. According to Graff and Russini, franchise owner Robert Kraft is "heavily involved" with the draft planning and "badly" wants to come out of the draft with a quarterback.

A lot will probably hinge on Washington's choice at No. 2. Williams will be off the board, and if New England prefers one of the other three top quarterbacks and he's available, it could stay put and flip the switch on QB3.

This would leave the last of the early first-round QB prospects for other quarterback-needy teams to pursue. This would provide a lot of leverage for the Arizona Cardinals and/or Los Angeles Chargers, who own the fourth and fifth overall picks, respectively.

Either the Cardinals or the Chargers are likely to stand pat and take Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., the top-ranked overall prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's big board. One of the two, however, will have a chance to get a huge return from a quarterback-needy team like the Minnesota Vikings in a trade.

Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated reported that both the Cardinals and Chargers are open to trading down.

Whether the Patriots trade their pick or not, it will be a fairly significant surprise to see the draft order stay the same for the first five selections.

Patriots Stay Put and Don't Draft a QB

Ohio State WR prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images

The Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Fallout: Picks 4, 5 and 6 Become Trade Targets

There's a chance that New England stays put and doesn't draft a quarterback. From a value standpoint, trading back would make sense, but the temptation to take the best skill player available could be too great to ignore.

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported earlier this month that teams wouldn't be shocked to see New England take Harrison at No. 3.

"It's not even a slam dunk they take a quarterback right now," Fowler told SportsCenter (h/t Bleacher Report's Joseph Zucker). "I have talked to a few teams that are drafting in the top 10-12 that wonder if the quarterback they want isn't there at No. 3 do they just take a Marvin Harrison Jr., stockpile some picks."

Leaving two of the top four quarterbacks on the board would potentially add even more trade value to the fourth and fifth selections. It could also add some leverage for the New York Giants' sixth selection.

There are a couple of reasons for this. For starters, this would mean that quarterback-needy teams wouldn't be limited to QB4. It would also mean that the run on top receivers has officially begun before Arizona and Los Angeles—two teams in need of receiver help—are on the clock.

Arizona or L.A. could be inclined to stay put for LSU's Malik Nabers or Washington's Rome Odunze. Other receiver-needy teams could consider moving up for one of the top pass-catchers—a group that also includes Georgia tight end Brock Bowers.

The Giants could be legitimate threats to take a quarterback or a receiver, and the No. 6 selection could quickly become a coveted draft asset.

Patriots Swap Picks with the Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort Stacy Revere/Getty Images

The Trade: Patriots Get No. 4 Overall Pick, 2024 Round 3 Pick (No. 66), 2025 Round 3 Pick; Cardinals Get No. 3 Overall Pick

The Fallout: Patriots Become Candidates to Make Multiple Round 1 Trades

This is a somewhat unlikely scenario but not an impossible one. If New England doesn't get its desired interest in the No. 3 pick from a QB-needy team and becomes a threat to take Harrison, Arizona might move up to secure him.

During an appearance on The Pat McAfee Show last Week (h/t Bleacher Report's Doric Sam), NFL Network's Peter Schrager reported that the Cardinals are likely to take Harrison if they don't trade down.

Arizona has multiple picks in both the first and third rounds, and yes, Harrison is a talented enough prospect to justify trading up to secure him.

New England could then look to trade the fourth selection to a QB-needy team while essentially adding some free capital from Arizona in the process. It would be an enticing avenue to consider if the Patriots can't get their preferred return for the third overall selection.

According to NBC Sports Boston's Tom Curran (h/t Bleacher Report's Julia Stumbaugh), New England is hoping to get more than three first-round picks to trade out of the No. 3 slot directly.

The Patriots could potentially move down again, then consider trading up from the 34th overall pick to secure a quarterback prospect like Oregon's Bo Nix or Washington's Michael Penix Jr. at the bottom of Round 1. Doing so would ensure that New England gets a quarterback with the fifth-year option.

The big question is how the Patriots view the talent gap between Maye, Daniels or McCarthy and Penix and/or Nix.

Patriots Trade to No. 6 in a Deal with the Giants

Giants general manager Joe Schoen Stacy Revere/Getty Images

The Trade: Patriots Get No. 6 Overall Pick, 2024 Round 2 Pick (47th Overall), 2025 Round 2 Pick; Giants Get No. 3 Overall Pick

The Fallout: Penix and Nix Become Likely Round 1 Selections

The fact that first-round picks come with the fifth-year option while later selections do not is why Penix and Nix could both be Day 1 selections. One or both of the second-tier quarterbacks, however, could become a veritable first-round lock if the Patriots allow the Giants to go up for their quarterback.

Will the Giants be interested? According to Russini, there's only a small chance of them moving up for a QB.

"It was explained to me that that was just a really tough sell to ownership after giving Daniel Jones that contract last year that we're going to now give up assets to replace a quarterback that we're paying $40 million," Russini said on The Athletic Football Show (h/t CBS Sports' Jered Dubin).

Things could change, though, if a quarterback that general manager Joe Schoen absolutely loves is available at No. 3. If, for example, the Commanders take McCarthy or Daniels and the Giants view Maye as the top QB in this class—as the B/R Scouting Department does—New York might make the jump.

According to ESPN's Jordan Raanan, Maye is the perceived target if New York goes move up.

New England wouldn't net its preferred haul of three first-round picks and more, but it could still have a crack at QB4 or one of the top non-quarterbacks in this draft class. It would also pick up some valuable Day 2 draft capital in a year that doesn't feature a ton of Day 3 depth.

"It took some body blows with the number of guys who went back to school," one unnamed general manager told Breer. "...There's a point where it's really going to fall off."

This would virtually ensure that all four top QB prospects are off the board by No. 6 and make it far more likely that Penix and/or Nix are taken in Round 1—possibly in the middle of the round.

Patriots Trade to No. 11 in a Deal with the Vikings

Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah Stacy Revere/Getty Images

The Trade: Patriots Receive No. 11 and 23 Overall Picks, 2024 Round 4 Pick (No. 108 Overall) 2025 Round 1 Pick; Vikings Receive No. 3 Overall Pick

The Fallout: Picks No. 9 and 10 Become Potential Pivot Points

Minnesota appears to be the team best positioned to make a play for the No. 3 pick. The Vikings have already acquired the 23rd overall pick from the Houston Texans and could trade three first-round selections without going beyond the 2025 draft.

Breer's "guess" is that Minnesota will move up for McCarthy.

This would likely still mean that all four of the top quarterbacks are off the board early because the Cardinals and Chargers will be in positions to trade. It will also make the No. 9 and No. 10 picks—owned by the Chicago Bears and New York Jets, respectively—potential pivot points in the draft.

The Patriots could be threats to flip an early switch on Penix or Nix with the 23rd pick, and they could go any number of directions with the 11th pick. New England lacks a No. 1-caliber receiver, a franchise-caliber offensive tackle and the bevy of top-tier defenders that new head coach Jerod Mayo might prefer.

The Patriots could pick from a swatch of potentially available prospects that might include Odunze, Bowers, Penn State offensive tackle Olu Fashanu, Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell and Alabama edge-rusher Dallas Turner.

If a team has zeroed in on any one of those prospects, it could look to deal with Chicago or New York to jump the Patriots at No. 11.

Field Yates of ESPN reported on April 5 that the Bears and Jets are viewed as trade-down candidates by other teams. Having New England at No. 11 instead of the QB-needy Vikings could increase the possibility that one or both move down.

Patriots Trade to No. 13 in a Deal with the Raiders

LSU QB prospect Jayden Daniels Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

The Trade: Patriots Get No. 13 Overall Pick, 2024 Round 2 Pick (No. 44 Overall), 2025 Round 1 Pick, 2026 Round 1 Pick, QB Aidan O'Connell

The Fallout: A QB Falls to Minnesota at No. 11

The likely list of teams interested in trading up for a quarterback includes the Giants, Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. The Patriots probably won't be particularly interested in moving down any further than Las Vegas' selection at No. 13.

But the Raiders could be interested in making the jump up to No. 3 if Daniels isn't the Commanders' pick.

"The worst-kept secret in the league right now is that Daniels and the Las Vegas Raiders desire one another," CBS Sports' Jonathan Jones wrote on Tuesday.

While the Vikings might offer the more enticing trade package in this scenario, there's no guarantee that they'll value QB3 as much as Las Vegas could value Daniels. The Raiders could potentially sweeten the pot by including Aidan O'Connell, who flashed plenty of promise as a rookie in 2023.

Adding O'Connell to a QB room that features Bailey Zappe and Jacob Brissett would at least give New England options in 2024.

And if the Raiders are the team moving up for a quarterback, Minnesota may have a legitimate chance of landing the fourth quarterback at No. 11. The Giants could also be in play, but New York might not view QB4 as an immediate upgrade over Jones.

Las Vegas and Denver are the most realistic threats to jump Minnesota, and Denver's recent acquisition of Zach Wilson could mean that Sean Payton isn't interested in making an aggressive move.

While Denver's QB room of Wilson, Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci leaves plenty to be desired, it provides enough insurance to justify a flier on Penix, Nix or North Carolina's Spencer Rattler later in the draft.

A lot would have to fall into place for it to happen—starting with Washington not taking Daniels at No. 2—but Minnesota might have a chance to come away with McCarthy or Maye without giving up the 23rd pick.

   

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