Paul Skenes Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images

10 MLB Prospects Off to Red-Hot Starts in the 2024 Minor League Season

Zachary D. Rymer

With all respect to Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, there isn't much left to say about them and other guys who are off to hot starts at the MLB level.

Instead, let's turn our attention to the minor leagues.

We're going to look at 10 prospects who couldn't be hotter at the outset of the 2024 season. The list includes four pitchers and six hitters who had either 10 innings pitched or 10 games played, respectively, as of the close of Saturday's games.

All 10 of these guys made the cut for B/R's Joel Reuter's latest rankings of the top 100 prospects in baseball. And lest anyone expect to read about Jackson Holliday, he and others who have already been promoted to the majors were exempt from consideration here.

We'll count 'em down in descending order of where they appear on that list.

RHP Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies

Chase Dollander Jill Weisleder/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Age: 22

Stats (A+): 3 GS, 15.1 IP, 7 H (2 HR), 27 K, 5 BB, 2.93 ERA

Rank: 90

Every draft pick is a leap of faith to some extent, but there is no greater leap of any greater faith than the Rockies selecting a pitcher with a top-10 pick.

So far, though, it's looking like they made a good call in choosing Chase Dollander at No. 9 in the 2023 draft.

The former Tennessee Volunteer is hot off a 12-strikeout performance on Friday, which raised his overall strikeout rate to 44.3 percent. Total-wise, he has as many strikeouts as a certain Pittsburgh Pirates prospect who'll be discussed in more detail later.

Dollander has been a little on the wild side, as he's had at least one walk and one hit-by-pitch in all three of his starts. It's nonetheless commendable that he's done as well as he has even though his slider, which is his best pitch on paper, isn't where he wants it to be.

Assuming the slider does eventually come along, that and Dollander's mid-to-high 90s fastball will give him a chance to be a rare Rockies success story on the mound.

Think less Riley Pint and more Kyle Freeland or Jon Gray.

RHP Drew Thorpe, Chicago White Sox

Drew Thorpe John E. Moore III/Getty Images

Age: 23

Stats (AA): 3 GS, 18.0 IP, 10 H (0 HR), 18 K, 4 BB, 0.50 ERA

Rank: 59

Apologies for the picture of Drew Thorpe in San Diego Padres threads, but he's only been a member of the White Sox organization since March 13.

The 2022 second-rounder was one of two prized pitchers who came over in the Dylan Cease trade, and he's thus far gone 3-for-3 in his effort to make a strong first impression:

All this is coming on the heels of a 2023 season in which Thorpe elevated himself from a relative unknown to one of MLB's most promising pitching prospects. He pitched to a 2.52 ERA over 139.1 innings to earn Minor League Pitching Prospect of the Year honors.

He isn't going to wow anyone with his velocity, as his fastball generally sits in the low 90s. But his changeup is in the running for the best thrown by any prospect, so the Michael Wacha road to success will be there for him when he's ready.

Though he's not represented here on account of his iffy peripherals, it does bear noting that Jairo Iriarte, who also came to the White Sox via the Cease trade, has a 0.00 ERA for Double-A Birmingham.

2B Orelvis Martinez, Toronto Blue Jays

Orelvis Martinez Mark Brown/Getty Images

Age: 22

Stats (AAA): 18 G, 79 PA, 6 HR, 0 SB, .333 AVG, .392 OBP, .681 SLG

Rank: 57

The Blue Jays have had revolving doors at second and third base in 2024, using four different starters at both positions so far.

In other words, they have not one but two places to potentially put Orelvis Martinez when they're ready to call him up.

He certainly did his share of slugging between 2021 and 2023, hitting at last 28 home runs annually and 86 overall. So it goes this season, and especially lately as he's collected all six of his long balls since April 14.

At play there is a solid 51.0 hard-hit percentage, yet just as important as how hard Martinez is hitting the ball is how often he's hitting it. After striking out in 26.8 percent of his plate appearances at Triple-A last year, he's down to a 21.5 strikeout percentage this year.

Basically, he's swinging as if he doesn't much care for being labeled as a 45-grade hitter at MLB.com. The more he keeps it up, the sooner the Blue Jays' hand could be forced.

RHP Tink Hence, St. Louis Cardinals

Tink Hence Scott Audette/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Age: 21

Stats (AA): 3 GS, 15.1 IP, 7 H (1 HR), 17 K, 2 BB, 1.17 ERA

Rank: 53

This is Tink Hence's fourth season as a minor leaguer. If he has his way, it will also be his last.

"I told myself, 'This is the year!'" Hence, a second-round pick in 2020, said earlier in April. "So, it's just about keeping my word to myself, proving that I've put in the work and developed to the point where I'm ready for this."

If that's talking the talk, then what he is doing now is walking the walk. Like Thorpe, he's 3-for-3 in making good starts for Double-A Springfield:

The 6'1", 195-pound Hence doesn't strike the most imposing figure. But he does have a plus fastball and a plus changeup, and he's been throwing tons of strikes this year. Those two walks come with zero hit-by-pitches and an overall strike rate of 66 percent.

The starting pitching issues that the Cardinals had in 2023 haven't fully dissipated this season, as their rotation has a modest 4.29 ERA and the third-lowest strikeout rate in MLB. All the more reason to think that, even if he has to make a stop at Triple-A first, Hence's goal of reaching the big leagues this year could come true.

OF Heston Kjerstad, Baltimore Orioles

Heston Kjerstad Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Age: 25

Stats (AAA): 21 G, 102 PA, 10 HR, 1 SB, .349 AVG, .431 OBP, .744 SLG

Rank: 41

Whatever shot Heston Kjerstad had of making the Orioles' Opening Day roster pretty much went up in smoke as he posted only a .580 OPS during spring training.

Think he's angry about that? Because it sure seems like he's angry about that.

Along with Houston Astros prospect Joey Loperfido, Kjerstad is the only player in the minors to have reached the 10-home run threshold. Two of those and 10 of his minors-leading 30 runs batted in came in a single game on April 3.

Lest anyone doubt that he has truly been crushing the ball, Statcast puts him in the lead for eligible minor league hitters with 34 hard-hit balls. He's also improved his discipline, going from a 37.3 chase percentage in 2023 to a 31.0 chase percentage this year.

Because the Orioles are set in the outfield and at first base and designated hitter, it's weirdly hard to fault the team for not calling up Kjerstad. But that moment is certainly coming, and what's already an elite lineup could get even more dangerous when it does.

OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, Minnesota Twins

Emmanuel Rodriguez Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images

Age: 21

Stats (AA): 14 G, 65 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .289 AVG, .508 OBP, .711 SLG

Rank: 40

No matter when you're reading this, there's a decent chance Emmanuel Rodriguez is on base at the moment.

He had a knack for getting on base before this season, posting OBPs of .346, .493 and .400 in his first three minor league seasons. Altogether, he walked in 21.3 percent of his plate appearances.

You'd think it would be hard to improve on a walk rate like that, but Rodriguez is making said rate look downright minuscule in 2024. He's drawn free passes in 30.8 percent of his trips to the plate, good for second among minor league hitters with at least 50 plate appearances.

Meanwhile, the power and speed are also looking good for Rodriguez. Through 14 games this season, he's already 25 percent of the way to his 16 homers and 40 percent of the way to his 20 stolen bases from last season. And he achieved those over 99 games.

Clearly, the Twins have their center fielder of the future. Which is good, because this is probably the last year Byron Buxton should be their center fielder of the present.

SS Carson Williams, Tampa Bay Rays

Carson Williams Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images

Age: 20

Stats (AA): 12 G, 55 PA, 3 HR, 4 SB, .392 AVG, .426 OBP, .686 SLG

Rank: 28

Even if he didn't have much of a bat, Carson Williams would still have a shot at a major league career because of his glove alone.

He's a true shortstop, with the footwork and range to cover ample ground and more than enough arm to get throws to first base on time. He could hit 94 mph as a pitcher when he was in high school.

More so now than in his first three seasons, however, Williams is proving he does indeed have much of a bat to offer.

He's had six multi-hit games in 11 tries this season, and his three home runs come next to six doubles. It's promising stuff for a guy who hit only .258 in 2023, and it's easy to trace it back to how his strikeout rate is down from 31.8 percent to 25.5 percent.

There's perhaps a non-zero chance of Williams being seen in the majors sometime this season. But even if that doesn't pan out, it's easy to imagine him taking over at shortstop for the Rays for good in 2025.

3B Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles

Coby Mayo Josh Tijong/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Age: 22

Stats (AAA): 21 G, 98 PA, 7 HR, 3 SB, .344 AVG, .388 OBP, .656 SLG

Rank: 14

One feels for Coby Mayo. It can't be fun for a guy to have a 1.024 OPS and seven homers and not be leading his team in either category. Thanks a lot, Heston Kjerstad.

Mayo is doing what he can to stand out, though, notably hitting the ball at a solid average of 92.2 mph with 27 hard-hit balls. He has a pair of two-homer games to show for his last nine appearances.

What should be alarming is that Mayo has 28 strikeouts next to only five walks. It's not quite a Samuel Basallo walk-to-strikeout ratio (i.e., 0-to-16), but it's not ideal.

Yet that figure makes Mayo's approach look worse than it actually is. He's shaved five percentage points off his chase rate from 2023, and only seven of his strikeouts have come in his last nine games.

Like Kjerstad, he is in a frustrating spot of not having a clear avenue to playing time in Baltimore because of how well Jordan Westburg is doing at third base. But should an opportunity to promote Mayo arise, the Orioles won't have any excuses not to take it.

OF James Wood, Washington Nationals

James Wood Nick Cammett for The Washington Post via Getty Images

Age: 21

Stats (AAA): 18 G, 85 PA, 2 HR, 5 SB, .306 AVG, .412 OBP, .472 SLG

Rank: 6

After a strong debut in 2023, Dylan Crews' first full professional season could be going better. The No. 2 pick from last year's draft has just a .741 OPS for Double-A Harrisburg.

James Wood, on the other hand, should crack the Nationals' outfield sooner rather than later.

If anything, the 6'7", 234-pounder deserves better numbers than the ones he has. That modest total of two home runs isn't for lack of hard contact, as his 95.7 mph exit velocity and 58.3 hard-hit percentage put him among the leaders for qualified minor league hitters.

There's also an important development concerning his approach. After pairing a 31.5 strikeout percentage with an 11.8 walk percentage in 2023, those figures have improved to 23.5 and 15.3 in 2024.

All this is after a spring in which Wood had a 1.213 OPS and four home runs. Between that and the 0.0 rWAR they've gotten from their outfielders so far, what the Nationals are waiting for is becoming an increasingly fair question.

RHP Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Paul Skenes George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images

Age: 21

Stats (AAA): 4 GS, 12.2 IP, 5 H (0 HR), 27 K, 4 BB, 0.00 ERA

Rank: 4

So, it's possible Paul Skenes is too good for the minor leagues.

Sure, he's only made nine appearances since the Pirates chose him with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. Yet these span four different levels of the minors, and it isn't just his results that indicate he has more talent than the standard Triple-A hurler.

The 6'6", 235-pound righty's fastball has averaged 100.2 mph, with Codify noting last Thursday that he had accounted for 104 of the 105 fastest pitches recorded in the minors.

Skenes has been going right at hitters with his heater, throwing it in the strike zone 58.9 percent of the time. The pitch nonetheless has a 37.0 whiff percentage and has accounted for 18 of his strikeouts.

Much to his dismay, the leash on Skenes has been short. He's maxed out at 65 pitches and 3.1 innings, which gives you an idea of just how careful Pittsburgh intends being with his prized right arm.

All the same, his knocks on the door are only getting louder. At some point, the Pirates will have to answer.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

   

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