Quarterback J.J. McCarthy Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

2024 NFL Draft: Projecting Landing Spot Range for the Most Polarizing Top Prospects

Maurice Moton

NFL draft analysts have years of film and testing results. Yet media outlets struggle to reach a consensus on some of the top prospects, with wide-ranging opinions.

Some of the most polarizing prospects have high ceilings and low floors in terms of their pro projections, often called boom-or-bust players.

Other potential Day 1 and 2 picks have appealing traits, but they lack the high-end production compared to bonafide blue-chippers in the class.

This year, draft analysts have various thoughts on a trio of quarterbacks, a couple of wide receivers, and a few linemen on both sides of the ball.

We'll break down some of the discourse on these polarizing prospects and their highest and lowest potential landing spots in the upcoming draft.

Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

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Keon Coleman will draw eyeballs with his size alone and anyone who watched him track the ball at Florida State last year understands why he has a chance to be a first-round pick.

At 6'3", 213 pounds, Coleman can become an immediate red-zone threat on the pro level. His combination of size, strength, length, and leaping ability will help him win most battles for contested catches.

While Coleman needs to sharpen his route running and has average long speed, his physical attributes should shine on the next level.

However, Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson has concerns about Coleman relying on winning contested catches in the pros and his average collegiate production.

In three collegiate seasons, two at Michigan State and one at Florida State, Coleman didn't accumulate more than 58 receptions and 798 receiving yards in a season.

Where could Coleman land in the draft?

Ceiling draft position: No. 28 overall (Buffalo Bills)

The Buffalo Bills traded wideout Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, and they'll probably add a wide receiver early in the draft, perhaps with their first-round pick.

Buffalo hosted Coleman for a predraft visit, per Ryan Talbot of Syracuse.com.

The Bills may want more size at wide receiver. They signed 6'4", 221-pound wideout Mack Hollins in free agency, but he's on a one-year deal. Coleman could be quarterback Josh Allen's long-term big-bodied target.

Floor draft position: No. 39 overall (Carolina Panthers)

The Carolina Panthers acquired wide receiver Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they can do more to help second-year quarterback Bryce Young in the passing game.

The Panthers have two second-round picks at 33 and 39. They may not pass up on a top receiver prospect twice with a need at the position.

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

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Draft analysts generally expect a team within the top 10 to take Drake Maye, but he's not a consensus top-three pick because of some glaring flaws.

On one hand, Maye can make phenomenal plays with his arm inside and outside the pocket. At 6'4", 223 pounds, he also has the ideal build for an NFL quarterback.

However, NFL Films producer Greg Cosell appeared on the Ross Tucker Podcast and said Maye needs to "clean up" on details and nuances of playing the position. Cosell also spoke about Maye's "inconsistent and, at times, erratic ball placement."

As a two-year collegiate starter, Maye could tighten up on the intricacies of his play with more experience, though he does have some head-scratching throws that led to turnovers.

For many analysts, like NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, Maye falls into the boom-or-bust category, but teams will be willing to gamble on him because of his upside.

Ceiling draft position: No. 2 overall (Washington Commanders)

The Chicago Bears seem likely to take Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick. Even if they trade down, the team that moves up would likely take Williams.

According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, Jayden Daniels isn't the slam-dunk pick for the Washington Commanders at No. 2, though he's in consideration. The Commanders could choose Maye instead.

Floor draft position: No. 6 overall (New York Giants)

If Maye isn't the second pick in the draft, he probably won't slip too far outside the top five.

The Athletic's Dan Duggan believes the New York Giants will make an attempt to trade up for Maye. If that's true, Big Blue would be delighted to see him on the board when it goes on the clock with the sixth pick.

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

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J.J. McCarthy arguably holds the title as the most polarizing prospect of the 2024 class.

After McCarthy helped lead the Michigan Wolverines to a national title victory, his draft stock went on the rise.

Now, McCarthy projects as a first-round lock with the potential to slide into the top five.

On one hand, McCarthy has earned praise for his command of Michigan's pro-style offense and a winning pedigree.

Conversely, some analysts have concerns about McCarthy's modest passing numbers over the last two yards.

In the predraft process, many want to know if McCarthy can shoulder the responsibility of leading an offense with high-end passing production, and they have doubts.

Nonetheless, McCarthy's buzz puts him firmly in the discussion as the potential No. 2 pick.

Ceiling draft position: No. 2 overall (Washington Commanders)

For prognosticators, the NFL draft guessing game likely starts with the second pick.

According to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, people close to Washington Commanders general manager Adam Peters believe he "likes" McCarthy.

According to The MMQB's Albert Breer, the Commanders hosted Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and McCarthy for a unique predraft visit. They're all in the mix for the No. 2 pick.

Floor draft position: No. 11 overall (Minnesota Vikings)

If the Minnesota Vikings aren't able to bundle their first-round picks (11 and 23) to move up for a quarterback, they could stand pat and take McCarthy if he falls outside the top 10.

In Minnesota, McCarthy would have a strong supporting cast, with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson in the pass-catching group and an ascending defense under Brian Flores.

Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

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Within a strong class of incoming offensive tackles, Amarius Mims may be a top-five player at the position.

That said, NFL team scouts had to rely heavily on their projection of him rather than his collegiate performances.

At Georgia, Mims served as a backup for two terms and started in seven games last year. Because of his inexperience in a lead position, he may go through more growing pains than other top rookie tackles.

However, despite missing a few games with an ankle injury, Mims played well as a starting right tackle. Teams may see his 6'8", 340-pound frame as a mountain of clay ready to be molded into an elite offensive lineman.

Mims plays a premium position. So, don't expect him to drop far into the second round.

Ceiling draft position: No. 13 overall (Las Vegas Raiders)

Mims may not leapfrog more experienced tackles like Joe Alt, Olumuyiwa Fashanu and JC Latham, but with the possibility of Taliese Fuaga and Troy Fautanu moving inside to guard, he could be the third offensive tackle off the board.

At the NFL Scouting Combine, Mims said he "really enjoyed" his meeting with the Las Vegas Raiders.

While the Silver and Black could address needs at quarterback or cornerback with its first-round pick, the club has a major need at right tackle, and Mims can fill that void.

Floor draft position: No. 40 overall (Washington Commanders)

In all likelihood, the Washington Commanders will take a quarterback in the first round. If they do, general manager Adam Peters should address the tackle position in the following round.

In March, Washington released left tackle Charles Leno Jr. Right tackle Andrew Wylie gave up nine sacks last year, according to Pro Football Focus.

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

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If you have listened to pundits over the past few months, Michael Penix Jr.'s draft stock has swung like a pendulum.

Penix helped lead the Washington Huskies to the national title game, which highlighted his most productive collegiate campaign. In 2023, he threw for 4,903 yards, 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with a 65.4 percent completion rate.

After Washington's loss to Michigan in the title game, skeptics started to pick apart Penix's game and raised questions about his injury history.

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Penix received positive news about his medical checks. Weeks later, he had an impressive showing at Washington's pro day, which boosted his standing in mock drafts.

As ESPN's Jeremy Fowler has pointed out, Penix has been linked to the Las Vegas Raiders, but he could go a little earlier than 13th if quarterback-needy teams feel the same way as the media about his rising draft stock.

Ceiling draft position: No. 11 overall (Minnesota Vikings)

Fowler acknowledged Las Vegas as a possible landing spot for Penix, but if the Minnesota Vikings miss out on a top quarterback prospect, they could take him at 11.

Floor draft position: No. 44 overall (Las Vegas Raiders)

With so much talk about Penix and the Raiders, he probably won't fall past the 44th spot.

The Silver and Black would get a five-year collegiate starter who can compete with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell for the starting job.

Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State

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After the premier prospects in this year's edge-rusher class, Jared Verse, Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu, Chop Robinson could be the next best option for teams that need a pass-rusher.

After one year at Maryland, Robinson transferred to Penn State where he displayed uncanny explosiveness off the edge. Because of his athleticism, agility and ability to slip blocks to make stops in the backfield, he has a high ceiling if a coaching staff helps him develop his skill set.

However, Robinson's overall production doesn't compare to the top edge-rushers in the class. Furthermore, he only started for one season with the Nittany Lions.

In his final collegiate year, Robinson recorded just 15 tackles, 7.5 for loss, and four sacks. Typically, edge-rushers with those numbers aren't potential first-rounders.

But like Odafe Oweh, who came out of Penn State in 2021 with seven sacks in three years (zero in his final collegiate term), Robinson's physical traits could outweigh his modest production.

As a combine standout, Robinson may have solidified himself as a first-round pick in a solid but not an elite class of edge defenders.

Ceiling draft position: No. 21 overall (Miami Dolphins)

The Miami Dolphins could take Robinson right outside the top 20. They have a glaring need on the edge with Bradley Chubb (torn ACL) and Jaelan Phillips (torn Achilles) coming off season-ending injuries.

With Chubb's extensive injury history, Miami could draft a pass-rusher to shore up the position for the long term.

Floor draft position: No. 39 overall (Carolina Panthers)

In March, the Carolina Panthers traded their best pass-rusher, Brian Burns, to the New York Giants. In free agency, they lost Frankie Luvu, who logged 12.5 sacks over the previous two years.

Carolina signed Jadeveon Clowney and D.J. Wonnum, but the former is entering his age-31 campaign.

Robinson could fit into a rotation and work his way into a bigger role for a rebuilding Panthers squad.

T'Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas

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Coming into the draft cycle, T'Vondre Sweat may have had a good chance to be a top-50 pick, but his recent arrest for driving while intoxicated could significantly hurt his stock.

On the field, Sweat made noticeable strides as a disrupter on the interior. In his final year at Texas, he recorded 45 tackles, eight for loss, two sacks and four pass breakups.

At 6'4", 366 pounds, Sweat plays with tremendous strength as he pushes up the middle. However, as B/R scout Matt Holder noted, his body conditioning "needs work."

When you add on the off-field arrest, Sweat likely enters the selection process with a low draft position floor.

Ceiling draft position: No. 49 overall (Cincinnati Bengals)

Before Sweat's arrest, he had a predraft visit with the Cincinnati Bengals, who finished 26th in rushing and allowed the third-most yards per carry last season.

The Bengals signed defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins during free agency. So, they don't have to take a risk with Sweat in the early rounds if team brass has concerns about his character. Yet his meeting with the team may have helped him gain the benefit of the doubt.

Floor draft position: No. 102 overall (Seattle Seahawks)

Sweat has recently visited with the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans (h/t NBC Sports' Charean Williams).

If Sweat slips beyond the third round, the Seahawks may see great value in him with the No. 102 pick. Keep in mind that Seattle gave up the second-most rushing yards and third-most rushing touchdowns last season.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

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Entering the combine, Xavier Worthy had a solid collegiate resume, hauling in 197 passes for 2,755 yards and 26 touchdowns.

At the combine, Worthy ran a 4.21-second 40-yard time that skyrocketed his draft stock.

Of course, a prospect's 40-yard time shouldn't dramatically impact his draft outlook if he's already known for his speed, but Worthy has the fastest 40-yard time in combine history.

Teams may overlook Worthy's thin stature (5'11", 165 lbs) and drop issues with a focus on his unmatched speed.

In hindsight, the Cincinnati Bengals overdrafted wideout John Ross, who held the previous record for the fastest 40-yard time.

Ross came into the league with a bigger body frame than Worthy (5'11", 194 lbs), but critics had concerns about his lack of play strength and durability because of past knee injuries. Yet Cincinnati selected him with the ninth pick of the 2017 draft.

Worthy's historic combine performance could help him in the same regard.

Ceiling draft position: No. 20 overall pick (Pittsburgh Steelers)

In March, the Pittsburgh Steelers traded Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers, which opened up a starting spot within the wide receiver group.

Nearly a week later, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. linked LSU product Brian Thomas Jr. to the Steelers at 20 in his mock draft, but in an episode of the First Draft Podcast with Field Yates, he mentioned a strong consideration for Worthy in that spot (starts at 28:58)

If Pittsburgh wants pure speed to complement George Pickens, Worthy obviously has it in spades.

Floor draft position: No. 47 overall pick (New York Giants)

As tight end Darren Waller contemplates retirement and wideout Darius Slayton skips voluntary workouts (h/t ESPN's Jordan Raanan), the New York Giants could add pass-catchers with their first two draft picks if they don't take a quarterback.

General manager Joe Schoen could take Worthy in addition to one of the top wideouts in the class to help Daniel Jones or whoever starts under center.

2024 NFL Draft order via Tankathon.com.

College statistics are provided by cfbstats.com.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.

   

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