Quarterback Caleb Williams Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

2024 NFL Draft: Bust Meter for Potential First-Round QBs

Maurice Moton

Most NFL quarterbacks are reliant on their supporting cast to play at an optimal level. They need pass protection, playmakers and a coaching staff that will put them in the best position to succeed, but certain traits can significantly help or hurt them in the pros.

Regardless of where a rookie quarterback lands, he has strengths that can elevate an offense and flaws that can delay his development or derail his career.

Before we find out where the top quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL draft will go, let's take a look at each signal-caller's skill set, tendencies and past history to assess their probability of becoming a bust on a scale of one to 100 percent.

Each quarterback listed below is projected to be a first-rounder or has generated recent buzz as a potential Day 1 pick.

Jayden Daniels

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Among the top quarterback prospects, Jayden Daniels is the most dynamic playmaker. He's the only player in FBS history to throw for 12,000-plus yards and rush for 3,000-plus yards.

Any team that drafts Daniels should do its best to utilize his full skill set as a passer and ball-carrier to reap the benefits of picking the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner.

On the flip side, Daniels' playmaking ability on the ground could shorten his career.

On the collegiate level, Daniels left his body open for big hits when he tucked the ball and ran downfield.

While Daniels showed an infectious competitive spirit on those plays, his slender frame (6'4", 210 lbs) may not be able to withstand that level of physicality on the pro level with bigger defenders on the field.

If Daniels doesn't learn to slide more often, he could put his availability in jeopardy.

Also, keep in mind that Daniels only had one standout season as a starting quarterback and played with two wide receivers, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., who are probable 2024 first-round picks.

Daniels will play with NFL talent, though the disparity between his team's playmakers and the opposition's defenders won't be as glaring in the pros. He must continue to learn how to manipulate coverages with pre-snap adjustments at the line of scrimmage and bait defenders with his eyes while he relies less on his athleticism.

As Bleacher Report scout Derrik Klassen noted, Daniels compares closely to Robert Griffin III, who won the 2011 Heisman Trophy before he went pro and won 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Daniels has a similar first-year ceiling if he can stay healthy in his early stages of development.

Bust meter: 20 percent

Drake Maye

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Drake Maye could be a boom-or-bust quarterback with a sizeable gap between his potential ceiling and floor.

Maye has the prototypical build of an NFL quarterback (6'4", 223 lbs) with the mobility to escape pressure and finish drives as a ball-carrier (16 rushing touchdowns). As a passer, he also makes throws from the pocket and on the move that set him apart from average signal-callers.

Over the last two years, Maye has had several "wow" throws that showcase his ability to threaten every area of the field. He's going to have some highlight moments that illustrate why the sky is the limit for him with the right team.

However, Maye can get greedy with shots he takes downfield, which will look like boneheaded mistakes on the pro level. In that regard, Maye may remind you of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen when he presses unnecessarily in games.

This past season, Maye's turnovers popped up doubles. He finished the 2023 campaign with three two-interception games.

Maye has the skill set to become a star quarterback, but he must replace some of his spectacular passing attempts with easier completions to establish consistency in the NFL.

Bust meter: 33 percent

J.J. McCarthy

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You cannot heavily weigh collegiate production into J.J. McCarthy's pro projection. He didn't carry Michigan's offense with his arm, only throwing for 44 touchdowns and nine interceptions over the last two years.

Coming into the NFL, McCarthy is more of a game-managing quarterback than a signal-caller who can uplift an offense, though that's not a negative if he goes to a team with a strong supporting cast.

If McCarthy lands with a club that has high-level playmakers and a decent defense, he can fit in and steadily develop over time rather than have to "take over" the offense right away.

McCarthy's experience in a pro-style system, functional mobility and high overall accuracy (72.3 percent completion rate in 2023) should allow him to operate efficiently within an NFL offense.

That being said, we have to wonder if his ceiling is a mid-level starter who eventually becomes a career backup because of his modest collegiate passing numbers.

At worst, McCarthy will have a long career as a reliable fill-in starter or high-end No. 2 passer on the depth chart. If he doesn't grow beyond managing an offense with occasional clutch plays, we will look back at this draft evaluation process and scratch our heads about his predraft buzz.

Since McCarthy didn't fully showcase what he can do on the collegiate level, teams should be skeptical about his ability to perform up to the expectations of a top-10 draft pick.

Bust meter: 51 percent

Bo Nix

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Among the top quarterback prospects, Bo Nix has generated the least amount of first-round buzz, though in a recent mock draft, NFL Network's Peter Schrager linked the Oregon product to the Minnesota Vikings' 23rd pick.

Depending on the number of quarterbacks teams select early in the first round, a club may strongly consider Nix late on Day 1.

Nix has five years of collegiate starting experience and has improved his completion rate every term. In 2023, he led the FBS in completions (364), passing touchdowns (45), and completion rate (77.4).

At Oregon, Nix thrived on quick-read short-to-intermediate throws and frequently targeted the middle of the field. Because of that, skeptics may assign him the "system quarterback" label.

Nix's success may be more reliant on a schematic fit that features the short passing game, screens and run-pass option designs. While he can throw downfield, long-developing plays that require him to go through full progression reads could be difficult for him to execute in his early pro years.

With a decorated college resume and ample starting experience, Nix could compete for a starting job on a team with an unsettled quarterback situation.

However, even with Nix's gaudy passing numbers, he doesn't have the "it" factor with his arm talent. Nix's mobility will help him escape pocket pressure, but beyond that, he seems dependent on scheme rather than elevating an offense with his playmaking ability.

Bust meter: 75 percent

Michael Penix Jr.

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After a strong showing at Washington's pro day, Michael Penix Jr. garnered notable first-round buzz among media outlets. He started to pop up in the opening round of more mock drafts.

Penix's perceived draft stock may have hit its peak when he helped lead Washington to a win over Texas in the College Football Playoff, though he performed well in the previous term, winning 2022 Comeback Player of the Year.

Over the last two years in Washington, Penix has thrown for 67 touchdowns and 19 interceptions with a 65.4 percent completion rate. He's arguably the best deep-ball thrower in the class, and he can transform a mediocre passing offense into an explosive unit.

As a collegian, Penix overcame adversity in the form of four consecutive season-ending injuries. His mental toughness will appeal to teams, but his history of injuries will also scare clubs away from using a first-round pick on him.

While at Indiana, Penix tore his right ACL twice and suffered a couple of significant shoulder injuries.

Though Penix hasn't missed a game in two years, players who get hurt in college could struggle to stay healthy through a longer and more physically demanding NFL season.

Penix also played with five potential top-100 picks in wide receivers Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan and two offensive tackles, Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten.

We haven't seen Penix stay healthy and post gaudy passing numbers without an elite supporting cast on the college level, which raises questions about whether he can thrive against equal competition for the long haul.

If a team takes Penix in the first round, it must be comfortable with where he stands physically and have confidence that his recent production isn't mostly a result of the talent around him.

Health issues aside, Penix may have been a surefire first-rounder, but coaches will have to work with him on his inconsistent accuracy on short-to-intermediate throws, inefficiencies when throwing outside the pocket and his lack of touch on throws.

Penix has some major pluses, but he also comes into the league with noteworthy question marks as well.

Bust meter: 65 percent

Caleb Williams

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Caleb Williams has the ability to turn around a franchise in a short period.

Williams can complete accurate throws on all three levels of the field with the appropriate velocity or touch on the ball, makes plays outside of structured designs and goes through his progressions as a full-field reader.

For every critic that points to how poorly Williams handled unrelenting pressure in a poor performance against Notre Dame (one touchdown pass and three interceptions), you can show plenty of examples in which he routinely made something out of nothing while in a crowded pocket.

Williams played well in all three of his collegiate campaigns, going back to his time at Oklahoma, throwing for 93 touchdowns and just 14 interceptions with a 66.9 percent completion rate.

Like every dynamic quarterback coming from the collegiate ranks, Williams has to break some bad habits that could become more prominent issues in the NFL.

Williams knows his athletic ability allows him to extend plays, but he must cut down on his backyard football tendencies. In some cases, his scrambling ability can work against him and result in big losses.

On the next level, coaches will likely encourage Williams to throw the ball away or go down on a sack for a short loss when he cannot make a play with his arm downfield, especially on crucial downs.

When Williams tries to make plays with his legs, he has to prioritize ball security. According to Team Rankings, Williams fumbled 15 times (eight last season) in three collegiate terms.

Williams can do a lot with his arm and legs to help his team, though he has to make smart decisions and protect the ball when exercising his playmaking ability.

If Williams doesn't try to do too much in routine situations, he should be a franchise quarterback with a long career.

Bust meter: 10 percent

College football statistics are provided by cfbstats.com.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.

   

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