The Los Angeles Lakers probably aren't going to beat the Denver Nuggets. Let's just get that out of the way right now.

The Nuggets are overwhelming betting favorites. They have the best player in the world. They swept the Lakers in the 2023 Western Conference Finals. They went 3-0 against them this regular season. And Jamal Murray seems to morph into some kind of Stephen Curry/Kobe Bryant hybrid when he has the opportunity to face the Lakers.

Most analysts and fans (at least the ones outside L.A.) are going to pick Denver to win this series. And they'll likely be proven right.

But, as Kevin Garnett once put it, "Anything is possible!" And there's a world in which the Lakers emerge victorious.

A lot would have to break their way, including each of the key points below, but stranger things have happened.

Free Throws

Last season, the Lakers shot a whopping 476 more free-throw attempts than their opponents. In 2023-24, they led the league in free-throw-attempt differential again, this time at plus-507. And when you combine the two campaigns, L.A. is at plus-983, while the second-place Miami Heat (plus-386) aren't even halfway to that total.

Without getting conspiratorial, for whatever reason, this Lakers team has given itself a staggering advantage at the charity stripe.

And of course, free throws mean the other team is fouling too. And though this didn't get the better of the Nuggets in 2023, if those fouls are assigned to Nikola Jokić early on, the complexion of a game can completely change.

Say, for example, AD and LeBron pick up two quick fouls on Jokić in the first quarter of Game 1, he struggles with foul trouble the rest of the way and the Lakers go on to shoot 10-15 more free throws for the contest. That's a game you can imagine L.A. winning.

And if it steals Game 1, this series will instantly feel different than the 2023 Conference Finals.

In that series, the Lakers took 26 more free throws than the Nuggets over the course of four games. You can expect a similar differential in this series, and that may swing a game or two.

No Bruce Brown

It's worth noting that over the course of the entire season, the Nuggets were minus-251 (minus-8.6 per 100 possessions) with Jokić off the floor in 2023-24. In 2022-23, they were minus-367 (minus-10.4 per 100 possessions) without the big man.

In other words, the bench arguably did a better job this season. So, perhaps the absence of Bruce Brown has been a bit overblown.

Still, there was a certain attitude that Brown brought off the bench that isn't really there now. His versatility, including the ability to create in the absence of Murray was key too. And his defensive aggression against D'Angelo Russell was part of why the Lakers guard was eventually played out of the series.

Without him, Denver doesn't really have the same kind of tenacious, on-ball guard defender to bother L.A.'s backcourt, particularly Russell.

Peyton Watson and Christian Braun are undoubtedly plus defenders, but they're better suited to bother wings (which is exactly what they'll need to do against LeBron).

Neither can pilot the offense quite like Brown did either. That responsibility now falls to Reggie Jackson, who was fine off the bench this season, but he just sort of plays in a different rhythm than the rest of the team. Some nights, the chaos he creates is good. Sometimes, it's a disaster for Denver.

There's no guarantee the Nuggets can replace the impact Brown had in the conference finals.

D'Angelo Russell

If you want to narrow the reasons the Lakers lost to the Nuggets last postseason down to perhaps the most important one, it might be the play of Russell.

He was hopeless trying to defend the perimeter. And his struggles there might've contributed to a lack of confidence and a 32.3 field-goal percentage for the series.

The Lakers were outscored by the Nuggets by a total of 24 points in the conference finals, and they were minus-47 with Russell on the floor.

His minutes were, to put it mildly, ruinous for L.A.

But Russell was already sort of trending that direction last year. In the second round, against the Golden State Warriors, he averaged 14.7 points and shot 31.0 percent from deep. He was on the wrong side of the plus-minus ledger in three of those six contests.

This season, on the other hand, Russell entered the play-in game averaging 19.2 points and shooting 41.1 percent from deep since the All-Star break. In the play-in game, he drilled five threes to help beat the New Orleans Pelicans.

Russell is playing with a ton of confidence right now. And he should be motivated by an opportunity for redemption against against the Nuggets.

He's not likely to match Murray's production, but if he's just marginally better than the disaster he was last May, this series could look a lot different.

LeBron and AD

Of course, the Lakers had their superstar duo for the 2023 conference finals, and both played pretty well.

For the series, LeBron averaged 27.8 points, 10.0 assists and 9.5 rebounds. AD put up 26.8 points, 14.0 rebounds, 2.8 blocks, 2.3 assists and 1.3 steals.

But LeBron shot 26.9 percent from deep, Davis was below 50 percent from the field, and L.A. still got swept.

Beyond struggling to score efficiently, neither could do much to slow down a Denver offense that scored 122.3 points per 100 possessions.

But that series was in May, games were played every other day, and the Lakers had already had to face the play-in tournament, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Warriors.

Both these stars are on the wrong side of their primes. LeBron's almost 40. They were worn down by the conference finals.

This year, they get a chance for redemption right out of the gate. LeBron and AD should both be fresher. And if they're just 5-10 percent better than they were in the conference finals, the Lakers might be able to make up that 24-point differential from last year.

Three-Point Variance

So many NBA outcomes these days can largely be chalked up three-point variance. This season, teams were 765-368 when they made at least one more three than their opponents.

In the 2023 conference finals, Denver hit 21 more threes than L.A. And there's no guarantee that discrepancy is repeated in 2024.

This regular season, the Lakers and Nuggets were right next to each other on the leaderboard in both threes per game (11.8 to 11.7) and three-point percentage (37.7 and 37.4). It's not crazy to think L.A. can get hot enough to win the three-point battle in a couple games, especially now that Darvin Ham is finally deploying this roster's most obvious starting five.

With LeBron and AD surrounded by three shooters (Russell, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura), there at least could be enough firepower to swing a couple outcomes.

But Alas...

There's a reason Denver was tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the most wins in the Western Conference, while the Lakers had to survive the play-in. There's a reason the Nuggets are such overwhelming favorites to win this series.

They're the better team, and they have a dynamic duo that won the title less than 12 months ago.

Unless all of the above breaks in the direction of the Lakers, Denver is likely to continue their dominance against one of the league's most glamorous franchises.