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MLB Overreactions to 2024 Season Thus Far

Brandon Scott

This is the perfect time for MLB overreactions. Sample sizes are still small, but they are just large enough to starting developing some real opinions.

If your favorite team or player is performing well through the first 20 games or so, it's an encouraging sign they are trending toward success. But it would still be a mistake to crown them too early.

Likewise, struggling out of the gate is far from ideal, but it still feels too early to panic.

In this exercise, we interject some overreactions so far, pick them apart and clarify the record.

Ronald Acuña Jr. Peaked in 2023

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This is an easy conclusion to draw simply because of how historic Ronald Acuña Jr.'s 2023 NL MVP season was. He won the award unanimously after becoming the first player in MLB history to post 40 home runs and 70 stolen bases in a single season.

His 73 stolen bases also set the single-season record for most in Atlanta's franchise history. From the standpoint that he was truly a player unlike anyone we've seen before, then viewing last season as a peak would be reasonable.

Then, when you add the fact that it took him 66 at-bats to record his first home run this season, there's an expectation for a regression to the mean.

Just keep in mind this is someone who only became stronger as the season went along last year. He hit just four home runs last April but never fewer than that in a month, and he recorded 11 homers in September.

The power on his lone blast this season was undeniable, 109.5 mph off the bat for 422 feet to center field, the deepest part of Minute Maid Park. Perhaps that homer will spark a run.

This 26-year-old phenom may be off to a slow start relative to the MVP expectation he set for himself last season, but his slow start is nothing to be too concerned about.

He may not reach 40 homers and 70 stolen bases in 2024, but a career year could still be ahead of him considering his age and the lineup he resides in.

Chicago White Sox Will Set Team Record For Most Losses

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There is no way around how bad the Chicago White Sox are right now.

The expectation was always that it would be a rough season, but it's still jarring to watch them become the clear-cut worst team in baseball.

They have just three wins going into Friday's series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies. They also hold the worst run differential in the league (-54), which is 13 runs worse than any other team.

It would be laughable if it wasn't so sad what is happening on the South Side, where there were World Series aspirations not long ago. As bad as it is, though, they should not have the worst record in franchise history (56-106 in 1970).

They are projected by PECOTA to be a 100-loss team, but no more than 101 losses right now. The 2023 White Sox lost 101 games.

This will be more like a bottom-five White Sox team, flirting with last year's and the 2018 squads that also had triple-digit losses. But that's where the humiliation line should be drawn.

Eloy Jiménez is back after a stint on the IL, and top shortstop prospect Colson Montgomery should be debuting soon to help add length to a lineup that ranks 29th in team batting average (.196) and is dead last in runs scored.

It also helps that the White Sox play in the AL Central.

Minnesota Twins Have a Bottom-Five Offense

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It's accurate to say the Minnesota Twins have a bottom-five offense right now, but it's an overreaction to assume this is the way it will always be for them this year.

They are without some of their best players in Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Max Kepler. Correa had been playing well prior to an oblique strain landing him on the injured list last week.

Lewis is expected to miss significant time with a quad injury, while Kepler should return soon from a right knee contusion. This offense isn't going to be Atlanta or the Dodgers, but it's not bottom-five if and when it's healthy.

The Twins are just one season removed from having the third-most home runs and seventh-highest OPS in baseball. They lost two key figures from that equation in Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor, who hit 21 home runs apiece. Yet they also shed the former's strikeout woes.

Cold weather, poor umpiring and unlucky hard-hit balls have been part of the problem. But Minnesota also carries the game's worst expecting batting average and is tied for the worst BABIP.

Still, the Twins have an impressive recent history of flipping the switch offensively, having done so in each of the past two seasons.

The falloff is striking, but don't overreact yet.

Shortstops In 2019 Draft Will Be Debated For Years

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Sure, it will be discussed, because of how talents Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Volpe have impressed early in their careers.

All three were selected within the first 42 picks in the 2019 MLB draft and have lived up to the billing so far.

Henderson was the AL Rookie of the Year and a Silver Slugger in 2023. Volpe won a Gold Glove last year and is top-three in fWAR among shortstops after just 18 games this season.

However, Witt clearly stands above the other two. He is special in a way the others simply aren't, with his unique combination of power and speed.

Volpe is fast, but Witt is faster; Henderson has power, but Witt is more powerful.

There will be discussion about how great of a trio this is, but there won't be a debate about the No. 2 overall pick.

The Resurrection Of Jesse Winker

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It's amazing how much better someone plays when their neck and back are working properly.

The resurrection of Jesse Winker is real. Just don't overreact, since it's more about him finally being healthy as opposed to suddenly becoming a good player again.

His batting average and OPS both rank third in the NL. While that might not be a fair expectation to maintain all season, he was an All-Star for the Cincinnati Reds three seasons ago. Since then, he's undergone disc replacement surgery and had a procedure on his left meniscus.

Last year, back injuries landed Winker on the injured list twice and he was limited to just 61 games. The results were not pretty, as he hit .199 with a .567 OPS.

However, the injuries have worked against the perception of the 30-year-old as a player. That much was clear by the minor league deal he signed with the Washington Nationals this offseason.

This comeback should be expected now that Winker is feeling well for the first time in two years. Maybe he won't keep up this All-Star pace, but he's shaping up to be a valuable trade chip for the Nationals come July.

Houston Astros Dynasty Is Over

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It certainly appears this way based on the Astros' horrid 6-14 start.

It's their worst start since 2011, when they were mercilessly tanking to ultimately build the juggernaut we know today.

At this point, it would take a remarkable turnaround for the Astros to resemble what they've been. Yet it is not out of the realm of possibility, considering they still have a few of the superstars who helped build this.

José Altuve leads the majors in batting average and OPS. He looks like he could compete for a fourth batting title. Yordan Álvarez and Kyle Tucker remain two of the most respected left-handed hitters in the game, while Alex Bregman plays through a contract year.

They need the five starting pitchers currently on the injured list to provide length, which would help them with facilitating bigger leads to hand over to the talented backend of that bullpen.

They should also be grateful for a pleasant surprise in 30-year-old rookie Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter earlier in April against the World Series champion Texas Rangers and has been excellent through his first three starts of the season.

It would help if the backend of that bullpen lived up to its billing, which brings us to the next overreaction.

Signing Josh Hader Was A Mistake

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On the one hand, the Astros have rarely given Josh Hader save opportunities this season. Going into Friday, his last one was April 7, which is his only save for Houston up to this point.

Aside from seldomly having utility on a struggling Astros club, Hader himself has struggled at times. On Monday against Atlanta, he entered the game with Houston down a run and allowed the first five batters he faced to reach base.

The 30-year-old gave up four earned runs and failed to finish the inning for just the third time in his major league career.

Based on the team's struggles and Hader's own, it's easy to conclude early on that the Astros made a mistake investing $95 million over five years on the five-time All-Star.

It's an overreaction because it's not so much that signing Hader was bad in a vacuum, as much as the Astros failing to address the greater need of middle relief and backend of the rotation to make good on a $95 million investment.

Early into spring training, Houston brass knew it would start the season without Justin Verlander, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. Then Framber Valdez went on the 15-day IL after his second start this season, further weakening the pitching staff.

The mistake was not signing Hader, it was not pursuing the next tier of starters like Jordan Montgomery or Michael Lorenzen, even if it meant pushing some of the younger starters to the bullpen once the team was healthy.

Hader's impeccable track record suggests he'll turn things around, but he may not have the same impact that a different free-agent player or two would have.

Baltimore Orioles Will Set Single-Season Home Run Record

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Baltimore is tearing the cover off the baseball with a major league-leading 30 home runs through its first eight games.

Only Atlanta is hitting the ball harder, yet the Orioles have 10 more home runs. Baltimore is tied with the Kansas City Royals for the major league lead in barrel percentage, but it has seven more home runs.

Whenever we see something like this, the common overreaction is to contemplate whether it could be all-time great, the way Ronald Acuña Jr. was for Atlanta last year with his unprecedented 40/70 line.

The O's have six players with at least four homers, with Colton Cowser bursting onto the scene in the last two weeks to give them yet another young power threat. The future is as bright as it gets for any franchise right now.

However, 30 home runs over 18 games is on pace for 270. It would not be good enough to match Atlanta's 307 from last season, which matched the record set by the 2019 Minnesota Twins.

In fact, four teams from that season would beat the Orioles' on-pace home run total. So they'd need to pick it up just to catch up with the 2019 Houston Astros, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Baltimore may well rival Atlanta for MLB's top offense, but it won't be breaking any MLB home run records. Although that team record of 257 set in 1996 (the infamous 50-homer Brady Anderson season) is certainly in danger.

   

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