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Panic Meter on Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Other Ice-Cold MLB Superstars

Zachary D. Rymer

For the most part, the players who are supposed to be shining brightly for Major League Baseball in 2024 are doing exactly that.

The best players of the season right now are, arguably, Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Jose Altuve and Juan Soto. Never has the phrase "that tracks" been more appropriate.

Of course, this is all the more reason to wonder what's up with the superstars who aren't performing.

Eight in particular deserve a deep dive, specifically for purpose of putting the panic meter to use. At the heart of the matter is what's ailing them early in 2024 and what could fix them.

If it's just time and maybe an adjustment or two, it's a 1/5 on the Panic Meter. If there are signs that what these guys really need is to go back in time, it's a 5/5. If the truth is somewhere in between, well, that's what 2/5, 3/5 and 4/5 are for.

Going in alphabetical order by last name, let's start with four hitters and end with four pitchers.

RF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta

Ronald Acuña Jr. Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images

Age: 26

2023 Stats: 159 G, 735 PA, 41 HR, 73 SB, .337 AVG, .416 OBP, .596 SLG

2024 Stats: 17 G, 80 PA, 1 HR, 8 SB, .294 AVG, .400 OBP, .397 SLG

Even after he finally got his first home run of the year on Wednesday, the question remains: Where is Ronald Acuña Jr.'s power?

It's hard to pin a power outage on bad luck even in the best of times, and especially not in this case. Both the consistency and the quality of his contact have taken a turn for the worse, as his strikeout rate is up and his exit velocity is down.

He's also being pitched differently, particularly by way of a steady diet of high fastballs that's thus far contributed to a career-high 30.4 whiff percentage on fastballs. To this end, he simply must adjust.

There's also the question of the health of his right knee. That was the site of his ACL tear in 2021 and the soreness that slowed his progress this spring. If it's not 100 percent, then that's not great. We know from 2022 how much a compromised right knee can hold Acuña back.

Yet even if his 2023 power doesn't come back, what Acuña is doing now is a solid proof of concept that he'll be fine. If he ends up with an OBP over .400 and 70-plus stolen bases, nobody will be in a position to complain too loudly.

Panic Meter: 2

CF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

Aaron Judge Dustin Satloff/Getty Images

Age: 31

2023 Stats: 106 G, 458 PA, 37 HR, 3 SB, .267 AVG, .406 OBP, .613 SLG

2024 Stats: 19 G, 88 PA, 3 HR, 0 SB, .183 AVG, .330 OBP, .380 SLG

If the Yankees can go 13-6 despite a cold Aaron Judge, it follows that they'll really take off once he gets hot.

To this end, there are avenues through which to find hope. Judge's walk-to-strikeout ratio continues to trend up, and that 450-foot moonshot that he hit in Cleveland on Sunday confirmed that his power is still there.

He does have one thing in common with Acuña, though, and that's that the general quality of his contact is down. He's lost 4 mph off his average exit velocity and 16.2 percent off his hard-hit rate.

Judge is likewise having a harder time with fastballs than ever before, but not because he's swinging through too many of them. He's just not hitting them squarely or getting around on them for batted balls to his pull side.

It could be that, after he was limited by abdominal discomfort to 24 at-bats in spring training, Judge's timing isn't right yet. But the issue with pulling the ball has now been persistent since last June. That's when he hurt his right big toe, which he has admitted is still bothering him.

Panic Meter: 4

SS Francisco Lindor, New York Mets

Francisco Lindor Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Age: 30

2023 Stats: 160 G, 687 PA, 31 HR, 31 SB, .254 AVG, .336 OBP, .470 SLG

2024 Stats: 18 G, 85 PA, 1 HR, 0 SB, .151 AVG, .259 OBP, .478 SLG

Let me say it before anyone else does: Yes, this does tend to be Francisco Lindor's least favorite time of the year.

He has a .743 career OPS in March and April, the lowest such mark among his monthly splits. It's therefore that much more commendable that his slow start isn't without silver linings.

He's cut his strikeout rate basically in half, going from 19.9 percent in 2023 to 10.6 percent his year. It helps that he's not expanding the strike zone as much, as his chase rate is the lowest it's ever been.

But at what point is more consistent contact worth worse contact? Whatever it is, Lindor has arguably gone past it in losing 3.5 mph off his exit velocity while simultaneously boosting his ground-ball percentage.

Besides, the switch-hitter's .346 OPS against right-handers may not be a mere strategic error. They're pitching him more inside than usual, and he's notably batting a career-low .188 against inside fastballs from righties. It's hard not to wonder if they've detected a slowing bat.

Panic Meter: 3

CF Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners

Julio Rodríguez Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Age: 23

2023 Stats: 155 G, 714 PA, 32 HR, 37 SB, .275 AVG, .333 OBP, .485 SLG

2024 Stats: 19 G, 78 PA, 0 HR, 4 SB, .219 AVG, .269 OBP, .260 SLG

Like with Lindor, here's another case of a hitter who just takes a while to get going.

Julio Rodríguez has a .627 OPS in March and April, and it wouldn't even be surprising if the first couple weeks of May came and went without him getting hot. It wasn't until May 22 that he really got going last year, yet he still finished fourth in the American League MVP voting.

This isn't to say there aren't sore spots on his record. He's a major strikeout rate gainer, going from 24.5 percent last year to 34.6 percent in 2024. He's also lost chunks off his exit velocity and hard-hit rate, with the latter falling from 52.0 to 41.3.

There's no indication that Rodríguez is injured, though, and it's hard to force concerns about his bat speed. Said bat speed is as good as it gets, and it's not as if he's suddenly racking up whiffs on fastballs.

The real issue is that he's not responding well to an increase in breaking balls, but all he has to do is stop offering at those. It'll take some work, but it's work that can be done.

Panic Meter: 1

LHP Max Fried, Atlanta

Max Fried Logan Riely/Getty Images

Age: 30

2023 Stats: 14 GS, 77.2 IP, 70 H (7 HR), 80 K, 18 BB, 2.55 ERA

2024 Stats: 4 GS, 16.1 IP, 23 H (2 HR), 12 K, 9 BB, 7.71 ERA

Though Max Fried did miss time in 2023 with a forearm strain and a blister, it speaks to his talent that he still posted a sub-3.00 ERA for the third time in four seasons.

He's nowhere close to replicating that feat right now, and his peripherals don't exactly bail him out. To have more hits than innings pitched is never good. To also barely have more strikeouts than walks is worse.

At the least, though, the left-hander doesn't appear to be dealing with an underlying injury. The overall quality of his stuff is actually up in 2024, which is most noticeable in how his fastball is sitting at a career-high 94.1 mph.

Hitters do have a .393 average against the heater so far, but expected batting average says it should be more like .277. And there have been some cheapies, for sure.

As for the walks, that Fried is dealing with a career-high rate of called balls within the strike zone points the finger partly at bad umpiring. His slow start thus has a lot to do with factors beyond his control, with the bright side being that it shouldn't last forever.

Panic Meter: 1

RHP Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Kevin Gausman Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

Age: 33

2023 Stats: 31 GS, 185.0 IP, 163 H (19 HR), 237 K, 55 BB, 3.16 ERA

2024 Stats: 4 GS, 14.1 IP, 20 H (3 HR), 16 K, 5 BB, 8.16 ERA

For Kevin Gausman, this year got off to a rough start even before the season began.

Hot off finishing third in the 2023 AL Cy Young Award voting, the righty developed shoulder fatigue early in spring training. He made only one start in the Grapefruit League, so it was always fair to assume he'd be a little behind when the season opened.

It's possible that's no longer the case. After posting an 11.57 ERA through his first three starts, Gausman pitched five innings of one-run ball against the Yankees on Wednesday. He had his fastball sitting at a season-high 94.9 mph, and his splitter was also on point.

All the same, his under-the-hood metrics don't paint a pretty picture. Batters have been crushing him upon contact, with a higher average launch angle and exit velocity than they've ever had against him.

It's also appropriate to have some skepticism regarding Gausman's shoulder. Past shoulder injuries sometimes portend future shoulder injuries. And in this case, we're talking about a 33-year-old who threw more pitches between 2021 and 2023 than all but seven pitchers.

Panic Meter: 4

LHP Josh Hader, Houston Astros

Josh Hader Tim Warner/Getty Images

Age: 30

2023 Stats: 61 G, 52 GF, 56.1 IP, 32 H (3 HR), 85 K, 30 BB, 1.28 ERA

2024 Stats: 10 G, 7 GF, 8.2 IP, 9 H (1 HR), 14 K, 4 BB, 8.31 ERA

Josh Hader allowed eight earned runs throughout all of 2023. He's already matched that figure in 2024.

This is one of the more remarkable facts of the season so far, but the situation isn't totally impossible to spin positively. Per Stuff+, the trademark sinker that's made him a five-time All-Star is better than it was in 2022 or 2023.

It could be that this is a location issue. He's been too down in the zone, helping to result in a .333 average against his sinker. And that average should probably be lower.

And yet, I'm not sure I've convinced even myself. The velocity on Hader's sinker is now down close to 2 mph from its peak in 2022. His overall contact rate is up to a career-worst 69.2 percent, and only two pitchers have suffered higher spikes in hard contact than he has.

Hader might try lowering his release point to where it was in 2023, but there's a realistic chance that this is his new normal. Case in point, it was around this same time in his career when Craig Kimbrel's stuff began to waver.

Panic Meter: 5

LHP Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants

Blake Snell Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Age: 31

2023 Stats: 32 GS, 180.0 IP, 115 H (15 HR), 234 K, 99 BB, 2.25 ERA

2024 Stats: 2 GS, 7.0 IP, 9 H (2 HR), 9 K, 4 BB, 12.86 ERA

Before we really get into it, let's acknowledge that Blake Snell makes even Lindor and Rodríguez look like fast starters.

Never mind May. Throughout his career, he typically hasn't really gotten rolling until July:

And this is for a guy who averaged 3.5 starts per year in spring training between 2017 and 2023. After not signing with the Giants until well into March, he made zero spring training starts before this season opened up.

As such, it's commendable that Snell's stuff was as good as it was in his first two starts. Though the velocity on his other pitches has been down, he's only lost 0.2 mph off his fastball relative to 2023.

Snell's rate of pitches in the zone is also up from last year, while his contact rate is at least below his career norm. Add in some tough luck (including here and here) on balls in play, and you get a picture of a guy who deserves more than a little patience.

Panic Meter: 1

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

   

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