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Mike Trout Is Back and Early-Season MLB Trends Already Emerging in 2024

Tim Kelly

While the two Los Angeles MLB franchises—the Dodgers and Angels—are at very different points, they've both been must-watch early in 2024.

For the Dodgers, it's obvious. Beyond the drama that the Ippei Mizuhara scandal brought to them, the Dodgers have assembled one of the greatest lineups in the history of the sport, led by Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. That trio has combined for four MVP awards, and there's a good chance it will have a fifth by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, Mike Trout continues to toil away for the Angels. He's been healthy so far this season, and is putting together production that makes you wonder if he could compete for his fourth AL MVP. Trout already has clubbed eight home runs, and could very well eclipse 400 bombs in his career before the 2024 campaign is out.

But the AL MVP is probably the only thing of note that Trout will be able to compete for with the Angels in 2024.

An incredible start for Betts, Trout's resurgence and the possibility that he finally gets out of Anaheim are a few of the many trends that are already starting to develop early in the 2024 season.

Mookie Betts Is Going To Make MVP History

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The only player in MLB history to win both NL MVP and AL MVP is Hall of Famer Frank Robinson, who won the former as a member of the Cincinnati Reds in 1961 and the latter while playing for the Baltimore Orioles in 1966.

Mookie Betts is off to a remarkable start for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2024, and considering he won the 2018 AL MVP as a member of the Boston Red Sox, this could be the year he joins Robinson in one of baseball's most exclusive clubs.

Betts is currently slashing .369/.470/.667 with six home runs, 18 RBI and a league-leading 1.8 WAR.

Betts finished runner-up to Ronald Acuña Jr. for NL MVP a year ago. He also was the second-place finisher for NL MVP in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when his now-teammate Freddie Freeman took home the honor.

2024 might be the perfect storm of events for Betts to finally get over the hump and add a second MVP to his resume. First off, it never hurts to be on the team that finishes with the best record in the league, which the Dodgers have a very strong chance to do. Secondly, Betts' willingness to play shortstop, second base and whatever position is asked of him will help him from a narrative sense. And perhaps most importantly, two-time AL MVP Shohei Ohtani—essentially a cheat code for the award—is only hitting this year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, so Betts doesn't have to compete with someone who is also a star pitcher.

Cole Ragans Is for Real

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Before the season, it was fair to say you wanted to see Cole Ragans sustain the ace level that he pitched at over 12 starts for the Kansas City Royals a year ago. It looks like he's well on his way to doing that.

Over his first four starts of 2024, Ragans has a 1.93 ERA and 2.30 FIP. The 26-year-old has a legitimate five-pitch mix, which includes a 96.5 mph fastball, a changeup, cutter, slider and curveball. He's throwing all five pitches at least 10 percent of the time, which make him an especially difficult pitcher to game plan for.

Aroldis Chapman helped the Texas Rangers to win their first World Series title a year ago, so it's hard to altogether pan the trade. But they gave up Ragans—who immediately developed into an ace upon being traded to the Royals—for a reliever they employed for a few months. Even with a World Series ring, Rangers general manager Chris Young probably would like that trade back.

Texas' loss is a major gain for Kansas City. The Royals now have one of the most exciting young pitchers in the sport, and he won't even become eligible for arbitration until the 2026 season. This is the type of deal that could define the career of Royals general manager J.J. Picollo.

The Phillies Have a Third Ace

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With Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola atop their rotation, the Philadelphia Phillies have one of the best one-two punches in baseball. But Ranger Suárez has pitched well in a variety of roles for the Phillies over the last three seasons, and the start he's had to the 2024 campaign suggests he may be ready to become the third ace for manager Rob Thomson's squad.

Between visa issues and injuries, 2024 was the first year that Suárez has really had a full Spring Training as a big leaguer. Thus far, it's done wonders for the 28-year-old lefty, who is 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 2.75 FIP across his first four starts.

In his most recent outing, Suárez tossed a complete-game shutout against the Colorado Rockies.

Two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper was extremely complimentary of Suárez after the career-best performance.

"I think he's the best No. 3 in the game," Harper said. "Just the way he goes out there and competes every time he's out there. Just his starts. Every time he goes out there, we have a chance to win, just like the other two guys that go out there in front of him. It's just a lot of fun to watch."

Suárez reaching another level on the mound would not only make the Phillies an even more dangerous team in the postseason, but it could allow them to at least challenge the six-time defending division champion Atlanta Braves for the NL East title.

Mike Trout Is Back, but Trade Speculation Is Right Around the Corner

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As noted on the opening slide, Trout is once again playing at an MVP level. The Angels are hovering around .500 so far, but let's be real, they don't have anything close to a playoff roster. You don't lose Shohei Ohtani and magically become a better team, even if Trout remains healthy for a full season.

Trout has spoken about wanting to be loyal to the Angels. That's not surprising considering he grew up idolizing Derek Jeter, who spent his entire 20-year career with the Yankees. But Trout didn't have the good fortune of being drafted by the Yankees, and the Angels have long since proven they aren't worthy of Trout's unwavering commitment.

Without any real path to being a contender anytime soon, the Angels probably would love to keep Trout around, especially post-Ohtani. He's the greatest player in the history of their franchise, and if the team isn't going to be relevant in terms of the playoff picture, continuing to employ Trout might be the only thing they can sell to their fanbase.

Trout will turn 33 in August, and is due $212.4 million between 2025 and 2030. With questions about his ability to stay healthy, the chance to fetch a franchise-altering return for Trout has probably passed. The Angels might be able to get a decent prospect or two back if they eat a significant portion of Trout's remaining money, but at that point, wouldn't it make more sense for them to just keep him?

The only way this changes is if Trout finally draws a line in the sand, and asks—or demands, if need be—that owner Arte Moreno trade him to a contender. Loyalty is one thing. Trout is in his 14th season, and has played in a grand total of three playoff games. For at least a few years now, his continued commitment to the Angels has been foolish.

If trying to win a World Series is a priority for him—and who knows, maybe it isn't—he'll use this hot start to begin to lay the groundwork for his exit from Anaheim. He's wasted far too much of his Hall of Fame career playing for a franchise that's beneath him.

Adding Impact Starter Will Be Imperative For Braves

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Prior to the season, B/R looked at the biggest regret each MLB team would have from this past offseason, and wrote that the Braves would wish they were able to sign the always-available Nola away from the division-rival Phillies.

Atlanta felt in need of an ironman in the rotation before losing NL Cy Young candidate Spencer Strider for the season after he underwent an internal brace procedure on his right elbow. Now, there's little doubt that Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos needs to add a front-of-the-line arm that can be trusted to stay healthy in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.

The problem is, those don't grow on trees. When teams have a reliable top-of-the-rotation arm, they aren't inclined to give them away, especially considering having that type of pitcher usually means you are a contending team.

In a way-to-early look ahead at this summer's top trade candidates on B/R, the pitchers mentioned from obvious sellers were Jesús Luzardo of the Miami Marlins, Paul Blackburn of the Oakland A's and Erick Fedde of the Chicago White Sox. The feeling you're left with is that this isn't going to be a great summer to be in the market for top-of-the-rotation pitching.

Of course, Atlanta isn't without any capable pitching. Max Fried has gotten off to a slow start in his contract year, but has two top-five finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting on his resume. Chris Sale is a seven-time All-Star. Reynaldo López has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in April. But Fried and Sale both have injury histories, and López hasn't thrown more than 70 innings in a season since 2019. You can envision a scenario where the Braves have enough pitching to compete in the playoffs, but there will be a lot of finger crossing between then and now with this group.

With arguably the top offense in the sport, the Braves are going to make the playoffs, probably as the NL East Champions. But this is a team that needs to add an ace pitcher about as badly as any World Series contender, and this doesn't look like a good year to have to do that.

Bobby Witt Jr. Has Entered the Superstar Chat

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The top three WAR leaders among position players currently are all ones on track to Cooperstown: Betts, Jose Altuve and Juan Soto. The fourth is Witt, who already has a 1.4 WAR less than a month into the season.

There's a feeling that this might be the year that Soto finally wins his first MVP, but Witt looks like he could have something to say about that. He currently leads all of baseball with three triples, and his 18 runs scored are the top mark in the AL.

A true five-tool player, Witt also have five defensive runs saved and three outs above average at shortstop this season, putting him on pace to win a Gold Glove Award for the first time in his career.

Still only 23, Witt has firmly entered the conversation as one of the sport's elite talents. The 11-year, $288 million extension that the Royals signed him to this past offseason is going to go down as one of the most team-friendly deals in the history of the sport.

A Decision Is Coming on the Long-Term Future in St. Louis

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The Cardinals feel like a team who are unwilling to admit that their window has closed, and instead keep trying to get one more run out of an aging group. Whether it's this summer or next winter, St. Louis may be forced to cope with reality.

Desperate for quality starting pitching, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak signed a trio of mid-30s starting pitchers this offseason in Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, who joined 35-year-old Miles Mikoas and 33-year-old Steven Matz. Here's how their five primary starters have done so far in 2024:

Mikolas: 5.82 ERA over 21.2 IP

Lynn: 2.18 ERA over 20.2 IP

Matz: 3.60 ERA over 20 IP

Gibson: 6.16 ERA over 19 IP

Gray: 0.00 ERA over 11 IP

While Gray had to open the season on the injured list with a right hamstring injury, last year's AL Cy Young runner-up looks to have been a strong addition on a three-year, $75 million deal. Matz also has had a respectable start.

Mikolas and Gibson, however, have had nightmarish starts. While Lynn's ERA has been tremendous so far, his 4.89 FIP suggests he's going to come crashing back down to Earth.

Even if the pitching for the Cardinals is able to hold things together for 2024, the age of the group makes it hard to believe this is a team with a long-term path to being a World Series contender.

What's more, while rookie shortstop Mason Wynn looks like a potential star, the veteran additions of Matt Carpenter and Brandon Crawford have netted very few positive results this far. There are enough questions about the team's offense and starting pitching that make you feel like they are at a crossroads organizationally.

Future Hall of Fame third baseman Nolan Arenado just turned 33, and while there will probably be trade interest in him, he's signed through 2027 and St. Louis might decide they would like him to finish his career in a Cardinals uniform.

The short and long-term future for former NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt are much less clear. Set to turn 37 in September, Goldschmidt can become a free agent after the season. If the Cardinals aren't a serious playoff team this summer, will both sides decide it's best to go in other directions in advance of the July 30 trade deadline?

Certainly, if the Cardinals are open for business, closer Ryan Helsley would be a popular trade target as well. The 29-year-old can become a free agent after the 2025 season, and with how volatile hard-throwing closers are, cashing him in for prospects could make sense if the Cardinals choose to take a step back.

This doesn't project to be a particularly interesting trade deadline, but that could change depending on if the Cardinals decide to sell, and just who on their roster they would be willing to part ways with.

The Tigers May Have To Cut Their Losses With Javier Báez

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The Detroit Tigers look like they could make a run at the postseason in the wide-open AL Central, hoping to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

But the optimism in Detroit isn't because shortstop Javier Báez is having a rebound season. Positive vibes exist around the Tigers despite the fact that the former All-Star's contract has become one of the worst in the sport currently.

If hitting .230 with a .634 OPS over the first two seasons of a six-year, $140 million deal wasn't bad enough, Báez is currently slashing .172/.194/.259 with an unsightly .452 OPS in his third season with the Tigers.

Since joining the Tigers, Báez's .622 OPS is the second-worst mark among qualified hitters, per FanGraphs. And his penchant for swinging at pitches not within the zip code of the strike zone has made his decline particularly difficult to watch.

If you're looking for a silver lining, Báez remains a strong defender at a vital position, with 10 outs above average at shortstop since signing with the Tigers. That doesn't begin to make up for how disastrous he's been at the plate over that period, though.

Báez is due $73 million over the next three seasons, and there's not a scenario where the Tigers don't pay that. Even though president of baseball operations Scott Harris inherited Báez's contract, ownership may not be willing to eat his contract and move on after 2024. And they can cite his defense as a way he's still providing value to the team.

But there's a case to be made that if Báez's offensive results don't improve over the remainder of his third season with the Tigers the team should cut their losses by designating him for assignment and releasing him when he inevitably clears waivers.

   

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