The final days before the NFL draft are always stacked with last-second information that alters some consensus views.

As the 2024 cycle approaches its peak, mock drafts from several of the most recognizable analysts are undergoing some notable changes. Not every trend ends up being meaningful, but it can be unwise to ignore the rumors surrounding a certain prospect or team.

On the other hand, it's called a smokescreen a for reason.

That's our challenge here, identifying an important, consensus trend and labeling it as fact or fiction. We've looked at B/R Scouting Department's recent mock, along with the latest from ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. and Field Yates, The Athletic's Dane Brugler and NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah.

Vikings Trade Up for J.J. McCarthy

The moment the Minnesota Vikings traded for the Houston Texans' first-round pick, the rookie QB alarm started roaring.

Oh, and their connection to J.J. McCarthy has grown, too.

Brugler and Jeremiah predicted the Vikings to send the 11th and 23rd selections to the Arizona Cardinals for the No. 4 slot. That would allow Minnesota to have the first shot at McCarthy, assuming Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels are chosen—in some order—with the opening three picks, as expected.

Kiper, meanwhile, had the Vikings sending those selections to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5.

McCarthy had already been a popular option at 11 for Minnesota, so the Houston deal only intensified the likelihood of this happening.

Even if Arizona keeps the fourth pick to add Marvin Harrison Jr., as seen in the ESPN mock, the Vikings remain the team in best position to trade up for a QB.

Verdict: Fact

Chargers Trade Down for O-Lineman

Two interesting trends have lingered about the Chargers.

First, they may target a receiver at No. 5 after releasing Mike Williams and trading Keenan Allen. The unit needs a reboot, and Los Angeles should have a chance to take either Harrison or Malik Nabers.

Second, however, the Bolts may desire to stockpile picks as the Jim Harbaugh era begins. And in true Harbaugh fashion, the priority would then shift to upgrading the offensive line.

In a variety of ways, all of Brugler, Jeremiah and Kiper projected the Chargers to trade back. The scenarios put Los Angeles at either the 10th or 11th pick, where Brugler and Kiper pegged Alabama's JC Latham and Jeremiah went for Oregon State's Taliese Fuaga.

The trade-down path is very sensible for Los Angeles, which is facing a considerable rebuild. Plus, in such a deep receiver class, the Chargers could target a receiver early in the second round anyway.

At this point, it's fair to expect the Bolts to move back in hopes of maximizing the low cost of rookie contracts.

Verdict: Fact

Bucs Go Defense in Round 1

Not only do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need an edge-rusher, sending Carlton Davis to the Detroit Lions opened a hole at cornerback.

Knowing that, it's not a surprise that all four mocks connected the Bucs with a defender. The prospects mentioned were Penn State edge Chop Robinson, Missouri edge Darius Robinson and Clemson corner Nate Wiggins.

Sensible, yes. Tampa must bolster the offensive line, however.

Even if Duke's Graham Barton or Oregon's Jackson Powers-Johnson don't reach No. 26, Tampa should prioritize a blocker. At least two of Arizona's Jordan Morgan, BYU's Kingsley Suamataia or Oklahoma's Tyler Guyton were available in each referenced mock.

After taking a defensive player first in the last three drafts, the Bucs should pivot to the offensive side in 2024.

Verdict: Fiction

Kool-Aid McKinstry Falling to Late Round 1

As the 2023 college football season ended in January, Kool-Aid McKinstry often held a place as a top-15 pick in mocks.

He's been slipping for a few weeks, though.

Within the four selected drafts, the Alabama cornerback peaked at 25th to the Green Bay Packers in B/R's projection. He otherwise went 28th, 29th and 30th—still a first-rounder but very much on the fringe.

McKinstry, on talent alone, is worthy of a mid-first selection. The issue is that the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars are the only teams in that range with a major need at the position, and it seems Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell and Bama teammate Terrion Arnold are the top corners.

From there, the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 22 are basically the last mid-first option—and, even then, the distance to McKinstry's current top projection is hardly enough to call it fiction.

Verdict: Fact

No Fifth QB on Day 1

ESPN linked Washington's Michael Penix Jr. with the Los Angeles Rams in the first pick of the second round at 33rd overall, and B/R sent Oregon's Bo Nix to the Las Vegas Raiders at 34th.

So, hey, we're splitting hairs, right?

From a number perspective, sure. However, the perk of a first-round selection is a fifth-year option on the contract. Having a franchise QB on a rookie deal—hello, C.J. Stroud—can be incredibly helpful in upgrading a roster. Houston, for example, just landed Stefon Diggs despite a big-money contract that would've been prohibitive for most teams.

Brugler is the lone exception of the group, projecting the Las Vegas Raiders to add Penix with the No. 29 pick in a trade with the Detroit Lions. Otherwise, the mocks end Round 1 with four QBs selected.

But the consensus view can easily be defeated.

For one, the Raiders or Denver Broncos need a QB and they play in the same division. And two, waiting until the second round while also sacrificing a fifth-year option is a risky play.

Verdict: Fiction