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Riskiest Big-Money 2024 NBA Free Agents

Greg Swartz

Some of this year's biggest free agents are about to ride their names, reputations and previous history to one last big payday, whether it's deserved or not.

We're not talking about Tyrese Maxey, who's still years away from his prime and in line for a max contract from the Philadelphia 76ers. Instead, we're identifying guys who are now in their 30s and on the downside of their careers, even if some are still playing at a high level.

Young teams like the Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic, Utah Jazz and others may be tempted to make a splash, but these are the riskiest veteran free agents who could still get max or near-max deals.

DeMar DeRozan, F, Chicago Bulls (Unrestricted)

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Not much went right for the Chicago Bulls this season, although the steady play of DeMar DeRozan was one bright spot.

Chicago, despite finishing at just 39-43, missing the playoffs and looking like a prime candidate to kick off a rebuild, reportedly want to bring the veteran forward back.

As K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago noted, "A source said the Bulls recently offered DeRozan's representative a two-year deal at a high annual salary, perhaps as much as $40 million per season. For now, DeRozan is seeking a longer-term deal, but that merely be part of negotiations."

DeRozan was still productive this season, posting averages of 24.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.1 steals and shooting 48.0 percent overall. He was remarkably durable, missing just three total games while leading the NBA in minutes per game (37.8) and total minutes played (2,988.6).

It's fair to question where DeRozan stands on a championship-level team, though.

He's set to turn 35 this summer and clearly isn't a No. 1 option. Even being a No. 2 looks like a bit of a stretch (could a Nikola Jokić-DeRozan combo win a title?), leaving us to consider DeRozan a solid No. 3 option. How many teams would be willing to match the Bulls' offer of $40 million a year for their third-best player?

DeRozan returning to the Bulls doesn't make sense for his own championship aspirations, pending some drastic changes around him. For someone entering his 16th season but with just one conference finals appearance thus far, winning a title has to be at the top of his wish list. That isn't going to happen in Chicago anytime soon.

Exploring sign-and-trade options to a contender may be what's best for all involved here, especially if DeRozan will accept an annual salary closer to $30 million a year.

Paul George, F, Los Angeles Clippers (Player Option)

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Paul George is still a really good player at this stage of his career, making his ninth All-Star appearance and registering a person-best plus-13.8 swing rating in 2023-24.

Age has to become a factor, though, as he is roughly a week away from celebrating his 34th birthday. His 74 games this season were a pleasant surprise, as he had only averaged 47.3 healthy contests over his first four years in Los Angeles and missed the 2023 playoffs with a sprained knee.

George has a player option valued at $48.8 million for next season and can still sign an extension with the Clippers until June 30. Should he decline this money he can become an unrestricted free agent and possibly set up a bidding war between L.A. and the Philadelphia 76ers.

A max contract for George would come in at $212.2 million over four years with the Sixers or $221.1 million if he stays in Los Angeles, per Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus.

Teams should be wary to pay this kind of money for a player who's now entering his mid-30s and looks like a No. 2 option at best at this stage of his career.

The 76ers would be committing $53 million on average per year in George's ages 34, 35, 36 and 37 seasons to be a third option behind Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Only Stephen Curry is slated to make more than this next season ($55.8 million).

Kawhi Leonard didn't even get the full max in an extension from the Clippers, agreeing to a three-year, $152.7 million deal.

George should (and will) get north of $40 million on a multi-year extension, but anything over $50 million that extends to a fourth year will be a mistake.

James Harden, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (Unrestricted)

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Here's hoping James Harden's free agency is less of a circus than a year ago.

For now, he is happy in Los Angeles and was brilliant in a Game 1 win over the Dallas Mavericks with 28 points and eight assists. Of course, the rest of the postseason could have an impact on both his total money and years as he has looked like a shell of himself in elimination games on more than one occasion.

ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski previously reported that Harden could have signed a two- or three-year deal with the Philadelphia 76ers last summer averaging around $40 million per year. He chose to pick up a $35.6 million player option instead to help orchestrate a trade.

A max contract is probably out the window, especially since Harden will turn 35 in August and the Clippers still have to pay Paul George this summer. Even getting to $40 million a year like he was reportedly offered last summer may be a reach.

Harden's numbers this season (16.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 8.5 assists) were his lowest since becoming a starter with the Houston Rockets in 2012-13. Part of this was a product of playing on a stacked team that didn't require as much of him while part of it was simply aging further away from his prime.

The Clippers have to be careful not to bid against themselves here, but they also want to keep Harden happy and avoid the drama that consumed his free agency last year.

All of the teams with significant cap space are either current lottery teams (Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz) or still years away from winning a title (Orlando Magic). The only exception is the 76ers, which obviously isn't an option.

Harden seems destined to wind up back in Los Angeles, but the Clippers will need to negotiate a fair deal. Kawhi Leonard is already on the books for $50 million. Another $50-plus million is owed to Norm Powell, Ivica Zubac, P.J. Tucker and Terance Mann. George and Russell Westbrook can both becomes free agents as well.

It's going to be an expensive summer in L.A.

Pascal Siakam, F, Indiana Pacers (Unrestricted)

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Pascal Siakam's upcoming free agency likely affected any and all trade discussions that the Toronto Raptors had before ultimately sending him to the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers didn't give up three first-round picks and Bruce Brown with the plan of renting Siakam for a half a season, but they may be forced to overpay the veteran forward to keep him in town.

As The Athletic's Sam Amick previously wrote, "There was instant talk about the high likelihood of Siakam re-signing in Indiana this summer…He's known to be seeking a full-term, max-salary deal and had previously signaled a desire to keep his options open, so it's quite telling that there was a shared willingness to frame their future in this sort of way."

A full-term, max salary for Siakam would start at $42.5 million in 2024-25 and total $248.3 million over five seasons. That's a lot to pay for a No. 2 option who's made just two All-Star teams now at age 30.

Indiana's defense has improved with Siakam, and the veteran forward averaged a solid 21.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists in his 39 games as a Pacer. Indiana's record was nearly the same pre-trade (24-17) as it was with its new star (23-18), however.

If Siakam signs a five-year max with the Pacers, it will be the fourth-largest contract in NBA history, trailing only Jaylen Brown, Nikola Jokić and Bradley Beal.

No one is arguing that Siakam isn't a really good basketball player, but paying him nearly $50 million per season from now until he's 35 is certainly a risk for the Pacers.

Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors (Unrestricted)

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Klay Thompson will be entering free agency on the worst possible note following his 0-of-10 shooting, 0-point performance in the Golden State Warriors' season-ending loss to the Sacramento Kings.

It marked a fitting end to what was a tough year for both Thompson and the Warriors, as the 34-year-old was benched for stretches for the first time since his rookie season.

All signs point to a huge reduction in salary from his current $43.2 million, although ESPN's Zach Lowe said that both the Warriors and Thompson "took note" of Jrue Holiday's four-year, $135 million extension with the Boston Celtics.

Offering Thompson anywhere close to this $33.8 million annual salary would be foolish. We're now five years and two major injuries from his last All-Star appearance. His once-elite defense is now hurting the Warriors, who give up 4.8 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, ranking in the 14th percentile, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Thompson has now ended two straight years on a bad note after averaging just 10.5 points on 25.0 percent shooting overall over his last four games against the Los Angeles Lakers in their 2023 second-round series.

The Warriors' two-year, $48 million extension that was offered before the season per The Athletic's Shams Charania and Zach Harper is a far more realistic option.

With an estimated plus-minus score of plus-0.8, Thompson fell between Dean Wade and Tari Eason this season. He looks like a borderline starter moving forward and should be compensated as such.

   

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