Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase Ryan Kang/Getty Images

Predicting 2023 5th-Year Option Decisions on Former 1st-Round NFL Draft Picks

Alex Kay

The Philadelphia Eagles made news Monday by signing wide receiver DeVonta Smith to a three-year, $75 million extension, according to multiple reports. Smith was the No. 10 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft and has caught 240 passes for 3,178 yards and 19 touchdowns across his first three NFL seasons.

Smith's fellow 2021 draftees are also eligible for extensions this offseason, but not every first-round pick is going to get one. Some of them might not even have their fifth-year team option picked up.

NFL teams have 2021 draftees locked up on a low-price, rookie-scale contract for one more year, but they need to make a decision on fifth-year options for first-round picks by May 2.

With that in mind, let's take a position-by-position look at the 2021 draft and predict which first-round picks will receive an extension, have their option picked up or hit free agency next spring.

Quarterbacks

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Option Eligible

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

Trey Lance, Dallas Cowboys

Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers

Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars

The 2021 quarterback class has largely disappointed thus far. Lawrence was considered a generational talent and a slam-dunk first overall pick, but even he struggled out of the gate before earning a Pro Bowl nod in 2022.

While Lawrence regressed slightly in 2023 (along with the rest of the Jacksonville Jaguars), he's a franchise quarterback worth building around for years to come. It would be shocking if Jacksonville doesn't sign him to a blockbuster extension—general manager Trent Baalke confirmed at the combine that both sides have begun negotiations—but picking up his fifth-year option is a fine fallback plan.

None of the other signal-callers from this class are likely to have their fifth-year option picked up, let alone earn an extension.

Wilson has been abysmal for the New York Jets, going 12-21 in his 33 starts while failing to develop into a worthwhile passer. He's thrown more career interceptions (25) than touchdowns (23), and his days in the Big Apple appear to be numbered.

Lance gravely disappointed as well, especially considering how much the San Francisco 49ers gave up to get him. The Niners moved on from the No. 3 overall pick last summer after Brock Purdy surprisingly developed into a bona fide starting quarterback despite being the last pick in the 2022 draft.

Fields and Jones both flashed potential early in their careers—Jones even earned a Pro Bowl nod as a rookie—before flaming out with the teams that drafted them and getting traded this offseason. Neither is likely to have his option picked up, but Fields still has a chance to rehab his career with the Pittsburgh Steelers, while Jones will serve as Lawrence's backup in Jacksonville.

Wide Receivers

Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Option Eligible

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

The 2021 draft featured some stellar receivers. DeVonta Smith already received a three-year, $75 million extension from the Philadelphia Eagles, which could help set the market for his classmates.

Chase should earn even more when he signs his extension. The Cincinnati Bengals star has been lighting up the league since his rookie year, racking up more than 3,700 yards and scoring 29 touchdowns on 268 receptions in only 45 career games. The Bengals will want to keep him around for the foreseeable future and should have no qualms picking up his option while working to hammer out an extension.

Waddle's option and extension should also be no-brainers for the Miami Dolphins. He hasn't been quite as dominant as Chase, but he's still amassed 3,385 yards and 18 touchdowns on 251 career catches despite working behind Tyreek Hill in Miami's pecking order for the past two seasons.

Bateman hasn't played at the same level as his fellow first-round picks, but he's shown flashes during his three-year stint with the Baltimore Ravens. Injuries have limited him to only 34 appearances and 21 starts, but he's still managed to tally 1,167 yards and four scores on 93 catches. His upside alone would justify picking up his fifth-year option, but he'll need to show more to earn an extension beyond that.

Toney is unlikely to have his option picked up. The New York Giants, who took him No. 20 overall, already traded him to the Kansas City Chiefs for third- and sixth-round picks after disappointing in the Big Apple.

While Toney has found more success with the Chiefs and played a role on two title-winning teams—including a Super Bowl-record 65-yard punt return against the Eagles—he's been far too inconsistent and injury-prone to earn a commitment from the cash-strapped defending champs.

Running Backs

Steelers RB Najee Harris Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Option Eligible

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars

Harris and Etienne came off the board with back-to-back picks at Nos. 24 and 25, respectively, but their careers have been quite divergent.

Harris has been a reliable stalwart for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but his availability hasn't translated to high-quality production. While he earned a Pro Bowl nod as a rookie and has tallied at least 1,000 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns in each of his three NFL seasons, it's taken herculean volume for him to reach those marks.

Harris has meager career average of 3.9 yards per carry, and the Steelers have steadily phased him out of the passing game, as evidenced by his career-low 29 receptions for 170 yards this past season. He isn't likely to earn a big-money investment from the Steelers, who have long been reticent to pay their running backs.

While he hasn't been nearly as available as Harris, Etienne has been far more dynamic when he's on the field. After missing his entire rookie season because of a foot injury, the Jacksonville Jaguars back returned to rack up 1,125 rushing yards while averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per carry in 2022.

That figure dropped to just 3.8 yards per carry this past season while the Jacksonville offense as a whole struggled, but Etienne scored a career-high 11 rushing touchdowns. He also became more involved in the passing attack with a career-high 58 receptions for 476 yards and one touchdown.

Of the two running backs selected in Round 1 of the 2021 draft, Etienne is the only one who's likely to have his option picked up.

Tight Ends

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Option Eligible

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts became the highest-drafted tight end of all time when the Atlanta Falcons selected him at No. 4 overall in 2021. That selection appeared to be warranted when he had 68 receptions for 1,026 yards and a touchdown as a rookie while earning a Pro Bowl nod.

Unfortunately, Pitts has regressed in the past two years. Health was an issue for him in 2022—he appeared in only 10 games and caught 28 passes for 356 yards and two scores—but he underwhelmed while playing all 17 games this past season.

Pitts may be poised for a bounce-back campaign in 2024 after the Falcons signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. Atlanta also has a new coaching staff and system that should emphasize Pitts' pass-catching abilities, which could help him get his career back on track.

Even though Pitts' play hasn't necessarily warranted having his fifth-year option picked up, the Falcons would be playing with fire if they declined it and he had a breakout 2024 campaign. Expect them to avoid any drama by picking it up.

Offensive Linemen

Lions RT Penei Sewell Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Option Eligible

Penei Sewell, Detroit Lions

Rashawn Slater, Los Angeles Chargers

Alijah Vera-Tucker, New York Jets

Christian Darrisaw, Minnesota Vikings

With the exception of Alex Leatherwood, who is currently a free agent, the offensive linemen selected in the first round of the 2021 draft have all gotten off to strong starts in the NFL. At least three are eventually in line for extensions.

Sewell, Slater and Darrisaw have all developed into franchise tackles for their respective teams. While health has been a slight issue for the latter two, both have established themselves as anchors in the offensive trenches. Sewell looks like a potential future Hall of Famer after making back-to-back Pro Bowl nods and earning his first All-Pro team appearance in 2023.

Vera-Tucker has been great when healthy, but injuries have limited him to only 28 games. He's played every position other than center for the New York Jets and thrived at all of them, but his 12 appearances over the last two seasons could give the front office pause in extension negotiations. Still, his versatility and upside warrant at least one more season.

Edge-Rushers/Linebackers

Cowboys EDGE Micah Parsons Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Option Eligible

Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys

Zaven Collins, Arizona Cardinals

Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins

Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders

Kwity Paye, Indianapolis Colts

Payton Turner, New Orleans Saints

Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills

Odafe Oweh, Baltimore Ravens

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There were plenty of intriguing edge-rushers and linebackers selected early in the 2021 draft, but this group has largely underwhelmed. Only one player has emerged as a superstar from this crop, and it's possible that many will have their fifth-year options declined.

Parsons fell to No. 12 during the draft, which many teams are ruing to this day. He's become a force for the Dallas Cowboys, opening his career with a Defensive Rookie of the Year award before going on to earn All-Pro nods in each of the last two seasons. Expect the Cowboys to pick up Parsons' option and sign him to an extension in the near future.

Collins hasn't been nearly as good as advertised. He lacks a clearly defined position, and his collegiate versatility hasn't been a boon in the pros. He'll likely play out the string for the Arizona Cardinals in 2024 before trying to rejuvenate his career elsewhere as a free agent next spring.

Phillips has been a steady presence on the edge for the Miami Dolphins. After recording 8.5 sacks as a rookie and seven sacks in 2022, he appeared to take a leap last year while notching 6.5 sacks over his first eight games. Unfortunately, an Achilles injury cut his breakout campaign short, but he's shown more than enough to warrant the Dolphins picking up his fifth-year option.

Davis has had some decent seasons—including a 104-tackle campaign in 2022—but he's struggled to make the massive impact he was projected to have when the Washington Commanders took him at No. 19 overall. He'll likely have his option declined, but he could still earn a decent second contract if he has a strong showing in 2024.

Paye has quietly developed into one of the NFL's bright young edge talents. He's built on his sack total each season (going from four to six to 8.5) and appears primed for a true breakout this coming season. The Indianapolis Colts shouldn't have any qualms about exercising his option.

Turner has failed to live up to his draft-day hype, as the No. 28 overall pick has only three sacks in 15 career appearances for the New Orleans Saints. Injuries have limited his availability, but he's been a non-factor when he does suit up in the Big Easy. There's almost no chance he'll have his option picked up.

Rousseau has been a building block for the Buffalo Bills' defensive front and should remain one moving forward. His sack total fell from eight in 2022 to five this past season, but he's had 17 sacks in three seasons and has the upside to notch plenty more. He should be a plus contributor for this unit in both 2024 and 2025 after having his option exercised.

Oweh's career has gotten off to a relatively slow start, but there's still hope that he'll become one of the next standout edge-rushers for the Baltimore Ravens. He matched his rookie total with five sacks in 2023 despite missing four games, and he brought his career forced fumble count to six. He could have a monster 2024 season and is well worth rolling the dice on with a fifth-year option pickup.

Tryon-Shoyinka was a project whom the Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected on the heels of their Super Bowl victory. He's found his niche as a rotational pass-rusher who's capable of disruption in the opponent's backfield. He's put up at least four sacks in all three seasons so far, which will likely convince Tampa Bay to pick up his fifth-year option.

Defensive Backs

Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

Option Eligible

Jaycee Horn, Carolina Panthers

Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos

Caleb Farley, Tennessee Titans

Greg Newsome II, Cleveland Browns

Eric Stokes, Green Bay Packers

The defensive backs taken early in 2021 have largely been brilliant thus far. Of the five that came off the board in Round 1, four are likely to have their fifth-year options picked up.

Horn was the first off the board and has flashed brilliance during his three seasons with the Carolina Panthers, but injuries have unfortunately been the story of his career. Despite playing in only 22 total career games, Horn already has four interceptions and 13 pass defenses and should add plenty more if he can stay healthy. The Panthers should be willing to bet on that by picking up his fifth-year option.

Surtain, the No. 9 overall pick in 2021, has been a revelation for the Denver Broncos and is guaranteed a fifth-year option pickup. He's emerged not only as the best corner in the class, but also one of the best in the entire league. With seven interceptions and 36 pass defenses and a pair of Pro Bowl nods already under his belt, the 24-year-old should continue to dominate for years to come.

Farley is the defensive back from this class with the lowest chance of having his option exercised. He had red flags coming into the league due to injuries, and those fears turned out to be well-founded, as he's appeared in only 12 games thus far. Even when healthy, Farley has been a liability for the Tennessee Titans and isn't likely to remain in the Music City for much longer.

Newsome may not be a Pro Bowl-caliber defender, but he's emerged as a steady starter for the Cleveland Browns. He had his best season as a pro in 2023, recording his first career interceptions along with a career-high 14 pass breakups. That improvement should clinch the Browns picking up his fifth-year option.

Like Horn, Stokes has flashed plenty of skill when healthy, but he hasn't been able to stay on the field. After appearing in all but one game as a rookie, he has missed 22 contests over the last two years. His option is a tossup due to his injury concerns, but he's likely done enough to warrant it being exercised.

   

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