Predicting how the NFL draft will play out is an impossible endeavor. While analysts make a living trying their best, it's basically impossible to account for every variable and potential trade when crafting a mock draft.

Despite this, there are still plenty of consensus selections found across a slew of different mock drafts that pair teams with glaring positional needs with sensible prospects who fill them. Major deviations from these consensus choices can be met with jeers and derision on draft night.

NFL decision-makers won't care what the knee-jerk reactions are, however, so long as their picks pan out. They won't be afraid to make bold choices that go against the grain if it means they are landing the best player on their front office's big board or filling their biggest roster holes with competent talent.

Shocking picks like Josh Allen, who the Buffalo Bills traded up for to get at No. 7 overall in 2018, and Jordan Love—who the Green Bay Packers tapped in Round 1 of the 2020 draft despite already employing a perennial MVP candidate in Aaron Rodgers—have since paid dividends for their respective teams.

These types of moves don't always work out, however. Former New England Patriots coach and de facto GM Bill Belichick likely sped up his split with the franchise by making a surprising selection in guard Cole Strange with the No. 29 overall pick in 2022. Looking further back, teams like the 2010 Denver Broncos and 2014 Cleveland Browns effectively threw away their first-rounders by reaching for quarterbacks Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel, respectively.

With that in mind, here are the teams primed to make shocking picks in Round 1 of 2024 NFL draft.

New England Patriots (No. 3 Overall): QB J.J. McCarthy

It became painfully obvious this past season that the New England Patriots whiffed on their first crack at finding an appropriate heir to Tom Brady. After Mac Jones' career went up in flames and the 2021 first-round quarterback was subsequently dealt to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Patriots find themselves with a rare opportunity to quickly reboot thanks to their premium draft position in a class loaded with passing talent.

Although there's been talk of trading down, New England would be wise to stand pat and select one of the best signal-callers still on the board. It seems to be a foregone conclusion that the Chicago Bears will take Caleb Williams at No. 1 overall, but one of Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels—two of the consensus top three quarterback prospects in 2024—is guaranteed to be available when the Pats are on the clock.

Despite that guarantee, rumors that New England will reach for a different quarterback are rapidly gaining steam. The team is being frequently linked with J.J. McCarthy, the Michigan passer who only recently began garnering consideration as an early-first-round pick among draft experts.

Mock drafts from USA Today's Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz, CBS Sports' Pete Prisco and NFL.com's Maurice Jones-Drew all have McCarthy heading to Foxborough.

While McCarthy did quarterback a Wolverines offense that went undefeated and won a national championship, he didn't exactly post eye-popping numbers in college. He finished his tenure in Ann Arbor having completed 67.6 percent of his throws for 6,226 yards and 49 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. He never breeched the 3,000-yard mark nor recorded more than 22 touchdown passes in a single campaign and didn't make much impact as a rusher, notching a meager 632 yards and 10 touchdowns on 161 attempts in total.

To put that in perspective, Williams almost racked up as many touchdown throws (42) during his Heisman-winning 2022 campaign alone. Daniels tallied 1,134 yards and 10 scores on the ground this past year, nearly doubling McCarthy's career rushing output in just 12 games.

Stats aren't everything when it comes to predicting future success and the Patriots found plenty of it for 20 years with a Michigan quarterback who didn't wow anyone with his physical traits or collegiate production. New England notably selected Brady with the No. 199 pick in the sixth round, nowhere close to No. 3 overall on Day 1.

McCarthy could go on to have a great career thanks to his intangibles, leadership and poise, but the lack of polished mechanics, elite athleticism and other traits traditionally seen in top quarterback picks is highly concerning.

Minnesota Vikings (No. 11 Overall): QB Bo Nix

The Minnesota Vikings elected to let Kirk Cousins walk in free agency following six seasons at the helm of their offense. While the move made sense given Cousins' exorbitant price—he signed with the Atlanta Falcons for $180 million over four seasons—and lack of playoff success during his tenure in the Twin Cities, it would be foolish to let him walk and then replace him with a low-end quarterback prospect selected far too early in the 2024 draft.

That seems to be the direction the Vikings are trending toward, however, as Oregon signal-caller Bo Nix could be the best option available when they are on the clock. While Minnesota does hold two first-round selections after pulling off a blockbuster trade to pry the No. 23 overall selection away from the Houston Texans, they'd likely take Nix at No. 11.

It's a spot the Vikings will almost certainly have to take Nix at if they want a chance to land him. The Denver Broncos are a heavy favorite to come away from the 2024 draft with the Ducks signal-caller with the No. 12 overall pick.

There's been whispers that the Vikings want to utilize their two first-rounders as part of a package to land a higher-tier passer, but if they aren't able to find a trade partner, they may be forced to settle for Nix just outside of the top 10.

Nix is another prospect who saw a massive surge in the pre-draft process. While he's only the No. 62 overall prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's big board and ranks behind four other players at his position, sheer need around the league for franchise quarterbacks will probably lead to him coming off the board far earlier than his ranking generally indicates.

The main issue with Nix is a lack of upside. He began his college career at Auburn all the way back in 2019 before transferring to Oregon in 2022. After five seasons and 61 games, it's quite clear what Nix brings to the table and what his weaknesses are. While he polished his game at Oregon, he's already 24 years old and it's unlikely that the QB is going to make many further strides in the pros.

Don't be surprised if the Vikings roll the dice anyway. Per ESPN's Kevin Seifert, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has said he doesn't plan to "reach or force" a trade, which could price them out of the running for a blue-chip QB. With no better options, Minnesota may well settle for Nix at No. 11 and hope his game translates to the NFL level.

Miami Dolphins (No. 21 Overall): TE Ja'Tavion Sanders

The Miami Dolphins haven't had a truly prolific tight end in decades, having last boasted a Pro Bowler at the position all the way back in the early 1990s. The team enters the 2024 draft with a chance to massively overhaul the position but could end up coming away with a polarizing prospect who might be a tad overrated.

It's unlikely that Brock Bowers, the consensus No. 1 tight end and No. 2 overall prospect this year according to the Bleacher Report Scouting Department, will still be available when Miami is on the clock. Due to this, the 'Phins will likely be left choosing between Texas tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders or addressing a different position at No. 21 overall.

While Sanders is considered one of the best tight end prospects this year and some analysts even believe he's the clear No. 2 behind Bowers, the gulf in talent between Bowers and the rest is massive. The B/R Scouting Department ranked Sanders all the way down at No. 78 overall, even putting him a touch behind Cade Stover—their No. 2 TE and No. 68 overall prospect.

Sanders stands only 6'4", 245 pounds, making him relatively undersized for a modern tight end. While Bowers is also small for the position, the Texas product didn't have nearly the same on-field impact as his Georgia counterpart. Sanders finished up his Longhorns career having tallied 99 catches for 1,295 yards and seven scores—including a meager two touchdowns across 14 games this past season.

Sanders' testing was also a concern. While he ran a respectable 4.69-second 40-yard dash at the scouting combine, his 30-inch vertical leap, 9'6" broad jump and 4.32-second short shuttle all left much to be desired. That lack of athletic ability could hold Sanders back from being even an average tight end at the next level—especially since his lack of bulk could limit his ability as a blocker.

As desperate as the Dolphins may be for a prolific tight end to round out their offense, Sanders' chances of developing into the top-tier tight end this draft slot would suggest is simply too low to feel great about the selection. That may not stop the 'Phins from taking a chance here, but it would hardly be a shock for Sanders to underwhelm and disappoint as a pro.

Buffalo Bills (No. 28 Overall): WR Xavier Legette

The Buffalo Bills must find wide receiver help in the 2024 draft. The team gutted its receiving corps this offseason by trading Stefon Diggs away and letting Gabe Davis walk in free agency. Those decisions have left Khalil Shakir—who had 611 yards and two touchdowns on 39 receptions last year—as Buffalo's top returning wideout with little depth around him, making it imperative for the franchise to address this position as early as possible.

Unfortunately for the Bills, there simply may not be many impactful pass-catchers available when they are finally on the clock. Barring a costly trade-up—something edge-rusher Von Miller appears to be hoping for based on his recent social media post—the team could have to settle for taking a shot on a prospect like Xavier Legette in the latter stages of Round 1.

Legette is one of the more intriguing receivers in this class. After four highly underwhelming seasons at South Carolina, he finally broke out as a redshirt senior in 2023. Breaking out may even be understating what the 23-year-old accomplished, as he went from never having more than 18 catches or 167 yards in a single campaign to exploding for 1,255 yards on 71 receptions in 2023 alone.

Standing 6'1", 221 pounds with strong hands, Legette does possess the size and catching ability to play in the NFL. He's quite fast for his build and displays a willingness to take on corners to pick up yards after the catch. He isn't afraid to go into traffic and makes the necessary adjustments to come up with contested grabs frequently.

Despite these strengths, Legette lacks polish in his footwork and isn't explosive. He takes a while to ramp up to top speed and won't be burning corners off the line. His route tree is limited and he's far too predictable with his approach. There's a chance he refines these issues with tutelage in the pros, but given his age, that development is far from guaranteed.

Considering Legette only rates as the No. 13 WR and No. 70 overall prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's updated big board, the Bills would be taking quite a risk staking their success in 2024 and beyond on this particular prospect.

There's a small chance Legette ultimately outperforms many of his peers ranked ahead of him, but Buffalo would be gambling on that scenario playing out and would likely have been better served going with a more surefire prospect at No. 28.

Kansas City Chiefs (No. 32 Overall): Kool-Aid McKinstry

The Kansas City Chiefs are picking at the tail end of the first round for the second consecutive year. While Felix Anudike-Uzomah—the team's selection at No. 32 overall in 2023—didn't contribute much as a rookie, the Chiefs could unearth a key defensive talent at that very same slot this year.

Desperate for help in the secondary after trading L'Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans, the Chiefs could seamlessly replace their No. 1 cornerback with Kool-Aid McKinstry. This pick won't be shocking due to the prospect choice, but rather the sheer value the back-to-back defending champions are receiving from the draft slot.

McKinstry may not be considered the consensus top corner in the class, but it would hardly be a shock for him to have the best career of any taken in 2024.

The Bleacher Report Scouting Department still has him ranked as their No. 3 corner and No. 15 overall prospect on the latest big board, a testament to the Alabama defensive back's talent and upside. That may ultimately be too low of a ranking for a player who earned first-team All-American honors this past year and looks poised for a promising professional career.

Although McKinstry had just one interception since the start of the 2022 campaign, he forced a collegiate-high 26 incompletions in single coverage during that span, according to Pro Football Focus.

Bleacher Report scout Cory Giddings called McKinstry "one of the more versatile cornerbacks in this year's class" and noted that he could thrive in any system and scheme. Should he somehow fall to them later this month, McKinstry should have little issue fitting in with Kansas City as the club looks to make history with three consecutive Super Bowl titles.

If the Chiefs accomplish that feat with McKinstry playing a major part, many teams will regret passing on the Alabama standout on Day 1.