Philadelphia's Bryce Harper Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Buying or Selling Latest MLB Hot Streaks and Slumps Around the League

Kerry Miller

Now that we're more than two full weeks into the 2024 Major League Baseball season, let's take an already small sample size and shrink it even further to just the past seven days' worth of hot streaks and cold spells.

As far as team records go, there's not much to talk about during the April 8-14 timeframe. The only team with either a zero or a one in either the win or the loss column is the Chicago White Sox at 1-5 in their last six games—which is even a slight improvement after going 1-8 in the first nine games of the season.

As far as individual players go, though, there are plenty of intriguing trends to look at and determine if you should buy or sell as legitimate.

We'll look at two hitters of each the hot and cold variety, as well as two pitchers in each camp. We'll also be focusing on one hot pitching staff and one cold offense—who didn't face each other in the past week, as that would be pretty duplicative. And we'll buy or sell each of the 10.

In each case, "buying" means we predict the player/team will either stay hot or continue struggling for the foreseeable future, and "selling" indicates the opposite.

Hot: Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics

Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images

Last Seven Days: 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K, 3 saves

Mason Miller made four starts for the A's last spring before landing on the IL for four months with forearm tightness. In that brief window, though, he showcased his potential to be special, going seven no-hit innings against the Mariners in one of those starts. He returned in September in a middle-relief/opener role and started dialing up strikeouts on a regular basis.

Now that he is (at least temporarily) exclusively a reliever who has become Oakland's primary closer within the past week, he is rearing back and throwing harder than ever.

Per Baseball Savant, the average velocity on Miller's four seamer is 100.5 mph, which is more than two ticks higher than last year's mark of 98.3. His slider is also coming in with more velocity, making what was already his wipe-out pitch even more devastating.

In a recent 1-2-3 save against the Texas Rangers, he struck out Marcus Semien on three consecutive sliders, whiffed Corey Seager on four straight 101-plus mph fastballs and even touched 103 twice before getting Wyatt Langford to pop out.

There's not much worth getting excited about with the A's these days, but Miller—who has taken what was a four-pitch arsenal as a starter and narrowed it down to just two lethal offerings plus an infrequent changeup to lefties—is the exception to the rule.

We'll see how long he can keep throwing 103 mph while UCLs are tearing left and right around the league, but so long as he stays healthy, he just might be the best closer in baseball.

Verdict: Buying

Cold: Jesús Luzardo, Miami Marlins

Rich Storry/Getty Images

Last Seven Days: 9.2 IP, 15 H, 12 ER, 6 BB, 8 K

For a good chunk of the offseason, Jesús Luzardo was one of the crown jewels of the trade block.

The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported in mid-December that the Marlins and Royals were trying to work out a trade that centered on Luzardo for Vinnie Pasquantino, which turned into all of us speculating on how much the Marlins could get for the lefty with three remaining years of team control and plenty of evidence from the past two seasons that he might be one of the 25 best pitchers in the big leagues.

Early returns in 2024 have suggested otherwise, though.

Of Luzardo's 32 starts in 2023, 17 were of the quality variety. He is 0-for-4 in that department this season, and he has gotten particularly shelled in his two most recent starts against the Yankees and Braves.

Granted, those are two of the most loaded lineups right now. Struggling against those gauntlets is much more forgivable than getting pummeled by, say, the Nationals and the White Sox. All the same, Luzardo's pitches are getting barreled up far more often this April than they did last April.

It's going to take more than a slow start against a tough schedule to throw in the towel on Luzardo, though. The way the schedule is lining up, he should get back-to-back starts against Colorado (in Miami) and Oakland in a couple of weeks. That should be where Miami's Opening Day starter gets right and reemerges as an All-Star-caliber pitcher.

Verdict: Selling

Hot: Colton Cowser, Baltimore Orioles

Paul Rutherford/Getty Images

Last Seven Days: 10-for-27, 4 home runs, 4 doubles, 2 stolen bases, .370 AVG, .963 SLG

We highlighted Colton Cowser just two days ago in a "biggest early surprises" article, and then he went out and clobbered another home run a few hours later.

Seems it's time to talk about this budding star once again.

Cowser had a cup of coffee in the big leagues last year, but it didn't go well. He was hitting .330 with 10 home runs in 56 games at Triple-A Norfolk when he got the call in early July, but he hit .115 with no home runs in five-plus weeks in the majors before getting sent back down.

This time, though, he was ready.

Cowser hit .304/.418/.717 with six home runs during spring training, earning a spot on the Opening Day roster that was expected to go to either Heston Kjerstad or Ryan McKenna. And with Austin Hays struggling mightily early on, that roster spot has quickly blossomed into seemingly an everyday starting gig.

Cowser has started eight games this season, going 15-for-38 overall and recording at least one hit in each start before Monday's 0-for-4 night. He has started each of Baltimore's last seven games, bouncing around between the three outfield spots as the Orioles make sure to get his bat in the lineup as often as possible.

He's not the Oriole most expected to win AL Rookie of the Year, but it's also no surprise that he is thriving. He was the fifth overall pick in the 2021 draft, and he stormed through the minors over the past three years.

The slugging is unlikely to continue to this degree, but Cowser could be a .300 hitter and a real star in the making.

Verdict: Buying

Cold: Ian Happ and Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Last Seven Days Combined: 5-for-54, 4 R, 5 RBI, 5 BB, 13 K, .093 AVG

Despite missing 32 games, Cody Bellinger led the Chicago Cubs in total bases in 2023. It was when they finally re-signed him in late February that they began to feel like the team to beat for the 2024 NL Central crown.

Ian Happ tied for second on the team in total bases last year, going for 21 home runs along with career-best marks of 84 RBI and 14 stolen bases.

Both were expected to be major pieces of the puzzle in order for the Cubs to live up to the hype.

But while rookie Michael Busch has been a breakout sensation over the past few days, neither Happ nor Bellinger can buy a hit.

Bellinger coming back to earth in a big way was a concern many expressed throughout the offseason, due to a combination of his subpar hard-hit percentage, an expected slugging percentage nearly 100 points below his actual slugging percentage and, well, everything he did from 2020-22. He does have a pair of solo home runs, but they came late in games when the Cubs were already up by at least seven runs, and they both came over a week ago.

Happ doesn't even have that, though, and is having a world of trouble against breaking balls: 1-for-16 with nine strikeouts. He did miss most of spring training with a hamstring injury, so maybe it's just taking him some time to get back into the swing of things. But his hard-hit percentage is also way down.

Obviously, they're not going to continue hitting a combined .093 for the entire season, but will they bounce back and become co-leaders of the team? Happ and Bellinger were worth a combined 7.4 bWAR to the Cubs last year, and that probably won't be the case this year.

Verdict: Buying

Hot: New York Yankees Pitching

New York's Marcus Stroman Dustin Satloff/Getty Images

Last Seven Days: 2.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

With ace Gerrit Cole opening the year on the 60-day IL, there were concerns that pitching could be quite the adventure for the Yankees in 2024. After all, the AL Cy Young winner was by far their most valuable pitcher in 2023, and they sent their second-most valuable one (Michael King) to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade.

So far, though, the pitching has been pretty great en route to New York's MLB-best 12-5 start to the year.

Marcus Stroman had a bit of a rough outing last Wednesday against the Marlins (5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K), but only after opening the season with back-to-back 6.0 IP, 0 ER appearances. He has a 2.12 ERA for the year and has been a great offseason pickup thus far.

New York's other four starters—Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt and Cody Poteet—allowed a combined total of six earned runs in 29 innings over the past week, with Cortes going eight shutout innings in a gem against Miami.

Meanwhile, how about the job Clay Holmes has done through the first few weeks? The Yankees closer is leading the majors with six saves and has yet to allow an earned run in eight innings of work, picking up right where he left off last season with a 0.69 ERA over the final month.

It was always a possibility the Yankees would have a strong pitching staff, but only if they got the 2022 versions of Stroman, Cortes and Rodón as opposed to the 2023 versions. Early returns are looking good on that front.

However, a teamwide ERA-FIP of minus-1.23 and a SIERA of 4.27 suggest there could be some serious regression to the mean coming to the Bronx.

They should be top half of the league, maybe even top 20 percent if and when they get Cole back. But if you're buying the Yankees as the best pitching staff in baseball, you're much bolder than us.

Verdict: Selling

Cold: Seattle Mariners Hitting

Seattle's Julio Rodríguez Mark Blinch/Getty Images

Last Seven Days: .206 AVG, .339 SLG, 6 HR, 29.2 K%

Seattle did manage to win two of the six games in question, but what is going on with this offense?

The only Mariner batting north of .240 or slugging north of .480 over the past week is Dominic Canzone (.333 and .778, respectively), who sat out one game, pinch hit in two others and left Sunday's game early after crashing into the wall in left field and suffering an AC joint sprain in his shoulder. No word yet on the severity, but he's probably going to be out for at least a couple of weeks.

Jonatan Clase was called up from Triple-A Tacoma on Monday and figures to be the primary leftfielder for as long as Canzone is sidelined. He went 1-for-4 in his debut and helped the Mariners score a season-high nine runs in a win over the Reds.

J.P. Crawford is the only regular who hasn't whiffed in roughly a third of his plate appearances over the past week. And Julio Rodríguez is still searching for his first home run of the year, presently batting .190 with a .456 OPS.

Meanwhile, Teoscar Hernández has five home runs for the Dodgers, Jarred Kelenic is batting .414 for the Braves, José Caballero is batting .311 with five stolen bases for the Rays, and Eugenio Suárez is doing more damage for the Diamondbacks than "Seattle 3B" has managed this season. So, not only are the Mariners struggling, but they are also missing what they let go/traded away this offseason.

Rodríguez will eventually heat up to a considerable degree. He alone could keep Seattle from ending the year as one of the five least productive offenses in the majors.

However, there's no question this lineup is less potent than it was a year ago, and that the offense could keep the M's from Jerry Dipoto's goal of winning 54 percent of their games.

Verdict: Buying

Hot: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Last Seven Days: 11.0 IP, 12 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 17 K, 2.45 ERA, 0.70 FIP

After helping lead Arizona to last year's World Series, Zac Gallen has gotten out to a 3-0 start with a 1.64 ERA.

Over the past week, he has been especially good at mowing down the competition with a K/BB ratio of 8.5.

In his start at Colorado last Monday, he allowed a run before even recording an out. Later, the fourth inning unraveled in a hurry with four consecutive singles. However, he kept his composure, kept the ball in the yard—he's allowed just two home runs in 42 career innings at Coors Field, which has to be some kind of record—didn't issue a single free pass and got 10 of his 15 outs by way of the K.

The next time out against St. Louis, he tossed six scoreless innings for the win.

But what else is new?

Over the past two seasons, not many pitchers have been more valuable than Gallen, finishing top five in the NL Cy Young vote in each year.

In his final four starts of last April, Gallen tossed 27 scoreless innings with 41 strikeouts against just one walk. And that wasn't even his best scoreless run, as he went 44.1 IP without allowing a single run in August-September 2022.

So, yeah, we're buying the notion that this was more than just one good week for the Diamondbacks ace.

Verdict: Buying

Cold: Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Last Seven Days: 7.0 IP, 9 H, 10 ER, 4 BB, 9 K, 12.86 ERA, 6.11 FIP

Blake Snell had a delayed start to the year, holding out until March 19 before finally signing a two-year, $62 million deal (he can opt out of the second year) with the Giants—paling in comparison to what the expectations were for the free agent with two Cy Young awards.

So far, though, we're seeing why teams were so reluctant to give him a massive contract.

His first start wasn't great, allowing three earned runs and lasting just three innings against the Washington Nationals before departing at 72 pitches.

His second start was much worse.

Snell was shelled for seven earned runs against his former, former team. Rays catcher René Pinto entered that game with just eight home runs in his career, but he annihilated one to dead center off Snell in the fourth.

The Athletic's Jayson Stark noted the major difference between where Snell ended last season and how he started this one:

Four of those 10 earned runs were walks that he issued, which is already concerning. He was so very (unsustainably) good about wriggling out of jams last season. Over his final 23 starts, he walked 72 batters and only allowed six of them to score—one of which came on an error, no less.

Going from a four-month stretch of allowing just 8.3 percent of walks to turn into runs straight to a 100 percent walks-to-runs conversion is way more than just regression to the mean, but to some extent, this was bound to happen, right?

It bears mentioning, however, that Snell got out to a rough start to last season, too. Not this rough, mind you, but he was 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA through nine starts before honing in in late May and never relenting.

Provided this is going to be one of his healthier seasons, maybe he turns things around once he gets fully stretched out after a truncated spring training.

Verdict: Buying a considerable amount of regression from last year's 2.25 ERA, but Snell will eventually be much better than these first two starts

Hot: Justin Turner, Toronto Blue Jays

Cole Burston/Getty Images

Last Seven Days: 10-for-22, 3 doubles, 3 RBI, 3 walks, .455 AVG, 1.182 OPS

Atlanta has a couple of pitchers who are older than Justin Turner, but Toronto's DH/3B/1B is the eldest statesmen among those who have swung a bat thus far in 2024, the only one playing in his age-39-or-older season.

Naturally, the old-timer leads all qualified hitters in batting average with a mark of .362 after a sizzling hot seven days at the dish.

Even before the home games against Seattle and Colorado this past week, Turner had already shown he can still contribute at a high level. He had a three-hit game with two extra-base hits at Tampa Bay on March 31, and he did it again two days later at Houston. At that point, six games into the season, he was batting .350 with a 1.135 OPS.

He hasn't cooled off yet.

Normally, being 39 years old means the end of the line for MLB hitters, if they can even make it that far.

But we have seen some professional hitters become exceptions to that rule.

David Ortiz hit 75 home runs between his age-39 and age-40 seasons, batting .315 and leading the majors in OPS in the latter year. Nelson Cruz hit .303 with a .992 OPS in his age-39 campaign in 2020 and continued to hit quite well for the first half of the following season. And who can forget the run Albert Pujols went on two seasons ago in his age-42 farewell year?

Turner won't stay this hot all season long, and I'd certainly sell the idea of him winning the first batting crown of his career as the oldest hitter in the majors. However, if the question is whether he'll be an All-Star and end the year as Toronto's leader in OPS+, that's feasible. It's perhaps even likely, provided he can stay healthy.

Verdict: Buying

Cold: Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Last Seven Days: 3-for-27, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts, .111 AVG, .345 OPS

Bryce Harper opened the season with three consecutive hitless games. And in the past week, he has had both a four-game streak and a two-game streak of the same ilk. He also struck out multiple times in six of his first 14 games.

Save for one magical three-homer game against the Reds on April 2, Harper has been a mess thus far.

The troubling part of that is this is usually the portion of the calendar when he does his best work.

Even with the disappointing 2024 numbers factored in, March/April has been the best month of Harper's career from both an OBP (.410) and SLG (.573) perspective. But he just hasn't been able to settle in yet this season, striking out more than usual, walking less often than usual and struggling with his launch angle for a second consecutive spring.

That launch angle is nowhere near as bad as it was for the first few months of last season. He's currently at 9.4 compared to the 6.7 mark that we noted late last July. But 9.4 is still troublingly low compared to his norms, and it wasn't until he brought it up to 13 degrees last August that he really went on a tear.

Surely the two-time NL MVP is going to come around, though, right?

His hard-hit percentage (47.6) is still in a great place compared to leaguewide average, as is his average exit velocity (91.1 mph). He just isn't getting barrels at anywhere near his usual rate, routinely making strong contact despite barely missing the mark.

Harper should snap out of it soon, provided he doesn't start overthinking every plate appearance and making things even worse.

Verdict: Selling

   

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