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Predicting the Entire 2024 NBA Play-In Tournament Bracket

Greg Swartz

The best part of the NBA schedule is officially here, as some tasty play-in matchups lead into an unpredictable playoff race.

The Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls may not be the most exciting game, although the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers represent a clash of last year's East champs and MVP.

In the West, the New Orleans Pelicans host the Los Angeles Lakers before the Golden State Warriors go on the road to try to knock out the Sacramento Kings in a rematch of their first-round series a year ago.

It's time to make some predictions for all six games and for who ultimately earns the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in both conferences.

East: (9) Chicago Bulls vs. (10) Atlanta Hawks

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Date/Time: Wednesday, 9:30 p.m. ET

The Bulls-Hawks play-in game is kind of like if the King Ghidorah meme had four heads, with this contest serving as the Kevin of the group. We have three superstar-fueled contests that will have lasting impacts on player legacies and this year's eventual champion; and then there's this meeting of two sub-.500 teams.

Trae Young recently returned to the Hawks following hand surgery and there's a good chance this is the last time he and Dejounte Murray play together in an Atlanta uniform given how poorly this season has gone.

Atlanta ended its regular season giving up 157 points to the Indiana Pacers while the Bulls had an admirable overtime loss to the New York Knicks, now the No. 2 seed in the East.

Matchup to Watch: Trae Young vs. Coby White

The Hawks have ramped up Young's minutes over the past week in his return, although the All-Star guard hasn't had a breakout game yet and scored just 12 points in 32 minutes in the season finale. After averaging 29.2 points and 10.2 assists in the first round last year, Young will need a big game for Atlanta to move on.

White's development is the best thing about Chicago's season, as the 24-year-old guard's scoring and assist numbers essentially doubled. DeMar DeRozan's big-game experience will steady the ship, but White will need a strong performance on both ends (while guarding either Young or Murray) for Chicago to win.

X-Factor: Javonte Green

Chicago is 5-4 in games Green has played since his first appearance of the season on March 27, and the veteran wing has averaged 15.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 1.0 blocks and shot 60.9 percent over his last six games. Going up against a Hawks team that's thin due to injury on the wing, Green should make a big impact.

Prediction: Bulls win and play the loser of East 7-8 game; Hawks are eliminated

East: (7) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (8) Miami Heat

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Date/Time: Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET

Is this the greatest play-in game yet?

Heat-Sixers is rich with storylines and star power, with both teams looking to shake off frustrating regular seasons and make a serious run at the 2024 title. The winner gets to avoid the Boston Celtics in the first round, a major prize in and of itself.

Playoff Jimmy Butler is back and should be highly motivated to play his former team and against Tobias Harris. Joel Embiid is looking better by the day in his return from a meniscus injury and finished the regular season with 33.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.7 blocks over his final three contests while knocking down 55.6 percent of his threes.

There's also the Kyle Lowry factor, as the veteran point guard began the year in Miami yet was traded to the Charlotte Hornets in the Terry Rozier deal and eventually signed with Philly. There's no doubt head coach Nick Nurse will be picking his brain while putting together the game plan.

Matchup to Watch: Joel Embiid vs. Bam Adebayo

Adebayo is one of the game's best defensive centers, but even prime Bill Russell would struggle to contain Embiid. Able to work from the post, face up and drive or knock down threes, Embiid is dangerous from all areas of the court and will need to at least be held in check somewhat for Miami to have a chance.

The good news? Embiid's lifetime scoring average of 23.9 points per game against Miami is his third-lowest against any franchise.

X-Factor: Terry Rozier

Rozier, Miami's big in-season pickup, has missed the team's last four games with a neck issue and is questionable for this game. The Miami Herald's Barry Jackson states that there is "cautious optimism" that Rozier will play.

The new Heat core four of Butler, Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Rozier have shared the floor for just 241 total possessions this season, registering a net rating of minus-2.1. Against Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Harris and company, this lack of experience together will cause them to play for the No. 8 seed instead.

Prediction: 76ers win and claim No. 7 seed; Heat play Chicago Bulls for No. 8 seed

West: (9) Sacramento Kings vs. (10) Golden State Warriors

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Date/Time: Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET

Kings-Warriors was one of the best series of the entire 2023 playoffs. It's a shame this year's version will last only one game.

Sacramento gets to play host, although that mattered little to Stephen Curry when he dropped 50 points in Game 7 in the Golden 1 Center a year ago to end the Kings' season. The Warriors have actually been better on the road this season (25-16 compared to 21-20 at home) as well.

Golden State is hot at the right time. Over the past 15 games only the Dallas Mavericks (12-3) have a better record than the Warriors' 11-4 mark, while the Kings have limped to 7-8 to end the season.

No Malik Monk or Kevin Huerter for Sacramento hurts the team's guard play and overall depth as well.

Matchup to Watch: Stephen Curry vs. De'Aaron Fox

Curry's 50 points in Game 7 last year may be what the Kings need from Fox now to win this game given the number of injuries the team has. The good news is that Fox had a fantastic regular season against Golden State (32.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 41.7 percent from deep in three games) and should feast on backcourt matchups of Curry and Chris Paul.

Betting against Curry in a big game, even at age 36, is something we're not willing to do here, however.

X-Factor: Draymond Green's emotions

Remember the stomp from last year?

Green was ejected from Game 2 against the Kings for using Domantas Sabonis' chest as a trampoline and was suspended for Game 3.

The Warriors were 33-22 with Green this season but went just 13-14 when he was suspended or hurt. Sacramento will undoubtedly be looking for ways to bait Green into doing something stupid, much like the Cleveland Cavaliers did in the 2016 NBA Finals.

Prediction: Warriors win and play loser of West 7-8 game; Kings are eliminated

West: (7) New Orleans Pelicans vs. (8) Los Angeles Lakers

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Date/Time: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET

The Pelicans and Lakers will forever be linked due to the Anthony Davis trade, a deal that's worked out well for both sides.

Brandon Ingram, the key return piece for Davis, returned from a 12-game absence due to a knee injury in time to play the Lakers in the final game of the regular season. He scored just 13 points in 23 minutes, although head coach Willie Green said he "definitely anticipate(s)" Ingram's minutes going up for the play-in game.

Both teams will certainly try to win, although sliding to the No. 8 seed and playing the young Oklahoma City Thunder instead of the defending champion Denver Nuggets wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Matchup to Watch: LeBron James vs. Zion Williamson

James was the primary defender against Williamson in the Lakers' 124-108 win over the Pelicans on Sunday, helping hold the star forward to just 12 points on 4-of-13 shooting. The four-time MVP was brilliant on the other side of the ball as well, totaling 28 points, 17 assists and 11 rebounds.

Williamson will undoubtedly want his revenge and is one of the few players in the league with a strength advantage on James. Expect a bounce-back game.

X-Factor: Anthony Davis' back

Davis had to leave during the fourth quarter of the win over the Pelicans after suffering hyperextension in his back. He's since vowed to suit up in the play-in game, although we don't know how effective he'll be.

A back injury can limit Davis' mobility and ability to rise up and defend the rim, something the Lakers will need him to do against a potent Pelicans offense.

Prediction: Lakers win and claim No. 7 seed; Pelicans play Golden State Warriors for No. 8 seed

East (Projected): (8) Miami Heat vs. (9) Chicago Bulls

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Date/Time: Friday

A projected Bulls win and Heat loss lands us here in what could be a surprisingly good game.

Let's not forget that Chicago was actually beating Miami by six with 7:12 left in the fourth quarter in their 2023 play-in meeting, as the Bulls nearly knocked out the team that would become the eventual Eastern Conference champs.

Zach LaVine won't be playing this time around, but after going 6-of-21 overall in last year's game, he didn't really play then, either. The rest of Chicago's roster is pretty much the same, with Coby White vastly improved from this time a year ago.

With nothing to lose and with no expectations to win, the Bulls should make this a close contest.

Matchup to Watch: Jimmy Butler vs. DeMar DeRozan

Butler and DeRozan have combined for 182 career playoff games across 18 seasons with seven different franchises. The moment won't be too big for either.

Expect a Herculean effort from Butler here, who may not get much rest. Missing the playoffs altogether would be a disaster for the Heat after their run last season.

X-Factor: Mid-Range Mania

It should come as no surprise that the Bam Adebayo-led Heat defense allowed the third-fewest points in the paint this season (46.4 per game). Seeing Nikola Vučević and the Bulls at No. 1 (45.4) is a bit of a head-scratcher, however.

Neither Chicago (27th in made threes per game) nor Miami (19th) relies on outside shooting to fuel its offense either, meaning this game could be decided somewhere in the middle.

Players like Butler and DeRozan should be fine with this, with the former ultimately dragging his team to a win.

Prediction: Heat win and claim No. 8 seed; Bulls are eliminated

West (Projected): (7) New Orleans Pelicans vs. (10) Golden State Warriors

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Date/Time: Friday

The Warriors have a huge advantage in big-game experience here, although the Pelicans have been a thorn in Golden State's side this season.

New Orleans won the last two meetings including a 141-105 shellacking on Jan. 5 and a recent 114-109 victory on April 12 even without Brandon Ingram.

With Ingram now back, the Pelicans look even stronger as they look to establish themselves as a contender in the West.

Matchup to Watch: Klay Thompson vs. CJ McCollum

Stephen Curry and Zion Williamson will highlight this meeting, although the two veteran shooting guards have been red-hot lately and could decide the outcome.

McCollum has averaged 30.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 6.0 made threes and shot 52.5 percent from deep over his last seven games while Thompson is up to 24.7 points and 4.8 made threes on 46.0 percent from outside the arc over his last six. Now part of the starting lineup once again, Thompson's scoring will be needed.

X-Factor: Go Big or Go Home?

Both of these teams possess the ability to play big or small, as they start traditional centers yet feature strong 6'6" power forwards who can man the position as well.

Jonas Valančiūnas had success against Golden State in their first win this season with 21 points and nine rebounds in 21 minutes, yet he was held to 10 points in 16 minutes in New Orleans' most recent victory.

We should see a good deal of Williamson and Draymond Green center minutes as both coaches experiment to see which lineup size is working the best.

Prediction: Pelicans win and claim No. 8 seed; Warriors are eliminated

   

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