J.J. McCarthy Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Predicting the Future of the 2024 NFL Draft's Riskiest Picks

Gary Davenport

Sure things are hard to come by in the NFL.

Yes, there are occasionally players like edge-rusher Myles Garrett, guard Quenton Nelson and quarterback Andrew Luck who are almost universally expected to be stars at the NFL level. And in the case of that trio at least, they went on to live up to the billing.

But for the most part, even high draft picks come with question marks. Just about everyone expects USC quarterback Caleb Williams to be the first overall pick in 2024. But it's not guaranteed that he will lead the Chicago Bears to the promised land. Just ask the Carolina Panthers, who just saw Bryce Young struggle as a rookie after going No. 1 overall in 2023.

Young's size (or lack thereof) made him a risky selection in the eyes of some draftniks, and there are plenty of dice-rolls in this year's class as well. For some, the risk is size. Or lack of a perceived high ceiling. Or injury history. Or flaws in their game.

Whatever the reason, there are some picks that are much riskier than others. Some will pay off in a big way, Others will bust just as spectacularly. They don't call it risk for nothing.

Here's a look at some of the riskiest selections in the Class of 2024, where they might land—and how things will play out for the teams who draft them.

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

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Potential Landing Spots: Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings

After exploding into national prominence and winning the Heisman trophy at LSU last year, there is little question that Jayden Daniels is going to be a top-three pick in this year's draft. It's just a matter of whether the Commanders take him second or he falls to the Patriots at No. 3.

There's a lot to like about Daniels—especially where his athleticism is concerned. There isn't another quarterback in this class who is close to the rushing threat Daniels is. He's also experienced, having played in 55 games over five seasons at Arizona State and LSU.

However, as Bleacher Report's own Derrik Klassen wrote in his scouting report for Daniels, the 6'4", 210-pounder's arm talent is a potential question mark.

"Daniels' arm talent and accuracy is a mixed bag," he said. "On one hand, he's a phenomenal deep thrower in rhythm. He regularly drops it in the bucket without needing his receivers to break stride. However, Daniels' arm strength and accuracy are less dangerous to other parts of the field. He doesn't always have the velocity to fit tight windows, and his accuracy in the 1-20 yard range comes and goes. Daniels' accuracy especially falls off when he's forced to throw out of rhythm or late in the down."

Daniels' potential is undeniable, especially if he lands with an offensive coordinator who takes advantage of his dual-threat ability. But his iffy mid-range accuracy is a legitimate issue—one that could limit his ceiling at the professional level.

Projected NFL Future: Poor Man's Jalen Hurts

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

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Potential Landing Spots: Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, Denver Broncos

There are two types of teams in the NFL—those that have franchise quarterbacks, and those who covet them. Teams in the latter group will do just about anything to join the former—and one this year is going to draft Michigan's J.J. McCarthy in the top-15—if not the top-10. There has even been some speculation that McCarthy could leapfrog Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye and be drafted inside the top-three.

McCarthy is one of the toughest and most battle-tested quarterbacks in his class. But as Doug Kyed wrote for the Boston Herald, NFL scouts are torn on just how much upside McCarthy has.

"Scouts like McCarthy's arm strength, mobility, leadership, toughness and ability to throw on the move," he said. "But he doesn't possess Williams or Daniels' elite playmaking ability or Maye's overall build and elite arm talent. NFL teams value intangibles, however, and McCarthy has enough tools to be considered moldable at the next level. His age is a major advantage over an older prospect like Daniels, but there's a lot of projection involved if McCarthy truly winds up being a top-three pick in the draft."

There isn't much McCarthy doesn't do relatively well. But he doesn't anything exceptionally well, he tends to hold the ball longer than many of the other prospects in the class and he has less than half the passing attempts in college that Daniels did.

If McCarthy doesn't land with a team that can accentuate his strengths and disguise his shortcomings, he's going to be looked back on as a reach three years from now.

Projected NFL Future: A More Mobile Kirk Cousins

Jonathon Brooks, RB, Texas

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Potential Landing Spots: Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Giants

There was a time when Texas running back Jonathon Brooks was the top running back prospect on quite a few draft boards for 2024. The 6'0", 216-pounder, eclipsed 1,100 rushing yards and averaged over six yards a carry last year before an ACL tear ended his season.

That ACL tear has clouded Brooks' draft prospects somewhat. But as it happens, Dallas Cowboys team physician Dan Cooper performed Brooks' surgery, and team vice president Stephen Jones told Nick Harris of the team's website that the Cowboys have been keeping a close eye on Brooks' rehab.

"Our understanding is that he has a great chance to be ready to not miss anything, start training camp and go to work," he said. "We'll see. I don't want to preempt anything. I haven't seen the medical reports, but from a periphery basis from afar, going to the combine and things like that, I think he can be a player that can start first day of training camp. Not start, but participate right away."

The argument can be made that Brooks (when 100 percent) is the most explosive back in what is admittedly a less-than-impressive class at his position. The landing spot is going to matter a lot for the former Longhorns standout, but if lands on a team like Dallas with an immediate need in the backfield Brooks could easily wind up the No. 1 rookie running back of 2024.

Projected NFL Future: Solid NFL Starter, Leading Rookie Rusher in 2024

Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

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Potential Landing Spots: Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs

They say you can't teach speed, and nothing will get an NFL team's attention like a killer 40 time at the NFL Scouting Combine—say the fastest time any player has ever recorded at the event.

That's what happened back in February, when Xavier Worthy of Texas peeled off a 4.21-second 40-yard dash in Indy. That all but solidified Worthy as a first-round prospect, and ESPN's Mel Kiper ranks the 5'11", 165-pounder as the 17th overall prospect in the class.

"Worthy is an electrifying player with the ball in his hands (and I wrote this before he broke the NFL combine 40-yard dash record with a time of 4.21 seconds)," Kiper said. "His quickness and movement in space reminds me a little bit of Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, who starred at Oklahoma and was a first-round pick in 2019. Worthy is tall but very thin. He can fly by cornerbacks on vertical routes and take the top off the defense. He had 60 catches for 760 yards and nine scores in 2022 and had 75 catches for 1,014 yards and five touchdowns last season. His biggest problem? Catching the ball. He had 10 drops in 2022 -- he also dealt with a hand injury, to be fair -- but he was more consistent last season, with five on 114 targets. Worthy also could be a dynamic punt returner at the next level."

The problem is we've seen this movie before—not that long ago. Back in 2017, Washington's John Ross was an undersized wideout with iffy hands who parlayed the (then) fastest 40 time in combine history into being a top-10 pick.

Worthy is a better prospect than Ross. He also won't be drafted as early. But his combination of iffy hands and lack of size are the ingredients for a Round 1 disappointment.

Projected NFL Future: WR4/5 and Significant NFL Disappointment

Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

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Potential Landing Spots: Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Xavier Worthy wasn't the only player who opened eyes in Indianapolis. Penn State edge-rusher Chop Robinson didn't set any records, but peeling off a 4.48-second 40-yard dash and 1.54-second 10-yard split—numbers that show his explosiveness when the ball is snapped. He also displayed excellent bend in on-field drills, and where pass-rushers are concerned, the bendier the better.

However, as B/R scout Matt Holder wrote in his scouting report on Robinson, athleticism isn't the issue with the 6'3", 254-pounder—production and consistency are.

"The Penn State product has a lot more traits than production right now, making him more of a project," he said. "He has made a handful of impactful plays via sacks and tackles for loss, but the consistency play in and play out just isn't there right now. He needs to add some size to be more stout against the run, which should coincide with more production. Schematically, Robinson would be best as a standup outside linebacker for a team that uses a lot of odd fronts."

The thing is, a few years ago many of the same things were being said about another Penn State player. That he small for the edge in the NFL. That his production and consistency didn't match his potential yet.

This isn't to say that Robinson is going to turn into the next Micah Parsons. There are predictions, and then there are pontifications. That would be quite the latter.

But there are some similarities between the two.

Projected NFL Future: Pro Bowl Edge-Rusher by Year 2

Payton Wilson, LB, North Carolina State

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Potential Landing Spots: Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles

Were it solely a matter of on-field performance and talent, North Carolina State's Payton Wilson would have a strong case to be the first off-ball linebacker to be drafted in 2024. The 6'4", 233-pounder racked up 138 total tackles and 17.5 tackles for loss last year on the way to winning the Nagurski and Butkus Awards.

Wilson is the complete package as a player. His 4.43-second 40-yard dash time shows the range and sideline-to-sideline speed that is so important in 21st-century linebackers. He has an excellent nose for diagnosing plays, getting off blocks and getting to the ball.

You know there's a "but" coming here, right?

But Wilson also has an extensive injury history—he missed his first season at NC State rehabbing a knee injury suffered in high school and sat out almost all of the 2021 season after injuring his shoulder. Add to that his age (24 by the time the draft takes place) and there are ample causes for concern for prospective suitors.

However, per Todd Gibson and Keaton Eberly of CBS 17, Wilson said he's healthy now and he's hopeful his days of spending more time in doctors' offices than the playing field are behind him.

"Yeah, I think it's just my injury history, these last two years I've stayed super healthy, which is a big plus," said Wilson. "At the end of the day, I think the film and the talent speaks for itself, and no matter where I end up, I think people will really like me, and I'm going to mesh with the team and help them win games."

If that is indeed the case, Wilson could be one of this year's biggest steals. But the more likely outcome is a career of highs and lows—of strong play interrupted by missed time.

Projected NFL Future: 2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year—Followed by an Injury-Shortened Career

Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

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Potential Landing Spots: Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars

Physically speaking, there isn't much not to like about Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins. At 6'1", Wiggins has the height that NFL teams covet at the position. Speed most assuredly isn't an issue, either—Wiggins posted a 4.28-second 40-yard dash at this year's scouting combine.

Per Cory Giddings' scouting report here at B/R, the tools are there for Wiggins to be a plus starter in the NFL—but it could take some time to work the kinks out of his game.

"Wiggins' versatility in the pass game is what ultimately drives his value up," Giddings wrote. "His length and ability to run make him one of the top cornerbacks in this year's class. He has the frame to continue to add weight, and with time and maturity, he should improve his play strength. Wiggins has the ability to be a starter in the NFL, but he will need to continue to improve his technique early on in his career."

There is work to be done where Wiggins is concerned. At just 173 pounds, he could be out-bodied by bigger, physical NFL wideouts like A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf. Consistent effort was an issue at times at Clemson. Wiggins tends to gamble too much in an effort to make the big play, and tackling was not an area of his game where Wiggins excelled.

With that said, it's hardly unusual for cornerbacks to take some time to acclimate to the pros, and Wiggins has some qualities that just can't be taught.

Projected NFL Future: High-End CB2/Low-End CB1—after an up-and-down rookie year.

   

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