Dustin Satloff/Getty Images

Predicting 2024 NBA Playoffs' Breakout Stars

Grant Hughes

The NBA playoffs offer an elevated state of competition, one designed to spotlight the league's very best players. With defenses dialed all the way in, opponent-specific game plans and the intensity level on high, superstars are often the only ones capable of enjoying consistent success.

Sometimes, though, players outside the top tier meet playoff challenges in ways that surprise us—or, at least they surprise fans who don't spend the season tracking the up-and-comers on all 30 teams.

The players we're tabbing as potential breakout stars aren't household names outside their home markets, and none of them has ever made an All-Star game. These are second, third and even fourth options on their own teams, but each of them has the game and the opportunity to treat the 2024 postseason as a coming-out party.

If you aren't familiar with their games, there's no need to apologize. These guys are poised to lift their teams and make themselves widely known in the process.

Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder

Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

Fans of the small-market Oklahoma City Thunder already know, and more informed observers have been singing his praises for months. But the wide swath of the NBA's casual, "tune in for the playoffs" audience is about to find out about second-year wing Jalen Williams.

J-Dub finished second in Rookie of the Year voting last season and deserves serious Most Improved Player consideration in the wake of a breakout sophomore campaign that saw him go from solid starter to legitimate star. Despite Williams' 19.2 points, 4.6 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 53.9/42.7/81.4 shooting split, he continues to fly under the radar. Some of that has to do with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP-level play and rookie Chet Holmgren's likely runner-up Rookie of the Year season.

In addition to a polished three-level scoring package, extreme efficiency and a knack for coming up big in the moments that matter most (Williams led OKC in fourth-quarter scoring), the extra attention defenses will pay to the Thunder's bigger names should set up Williams to thrive.

Every postseason scouting report will start with slowing down SGA, and the matchup problems Holmgren presents as a floor-spacing 5 might mean J-Dub occupies the third bullet-point on the opponent's list of threats. Williams' downhill attacks and deadly mid-range arsenal are hard enough to stop when he's running Oklahoma City's offense without one or both of his team's other stars on the floor.

If he's a tertiary defensive priority in the postseason, he's going to absolutely cook.

Jalen Suggs, Oklahoma City Thunder

Rich Storry/Getty Images

Jalen Suggs already plays with one of the league's highest-revving motors, so the thought of the NBA's best defensive guard upping the intensity in a postseason environment should terrify opposing ball-handlers.

Typically, breakout playoff stars earn recognition with high-scoring games or series-swinging clutch buckets. Suggs, who dramatically improved on offense by going from 32.7 percent from deep last season to 39.7 percent on increased volume in 2023-24, could knock down a big shot or two.

But it's his supremely physical, relentlessly disruptive, downright predatory defense that'll get him noticed.

The Orlando Magic are in line to face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round, which will give Suggs a crack at Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Get ready to marvel at the 6'5" guard's ability to pressure ball-handlers into mistakes, refuse to be screened, deflect passes, force terrible shots and generally make life miserable for whichever unfortunate soul on the other team finds himself anywhere near Suggs.

We're not talking about a backcourt-only defender, either. Suggs has the strength and competitive vigor to wrangle wings and forwards. Just look at how he stays surgically attached to Kyle Kuzma and refuses to concede any ground in what should be a significant size mismatch.

Suggs is going to open eyes among fans and break spirits in opponents. It'll be glorious or brutal, depending on your perspective.

Aaron Gordon, Denver Nuggets

Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images

It's not like Aaron Gordon is some anonymous 11th man on a lottery team. Many watched him perform well during last year's championship run, and his dunk contest exploits eight years ago put him on the casual-fan map.

But the Denver Nuggets' do-it-all power forward is poised to earn new (and appropriate) levels of praise this postseason.

This figures to be Denver's second straight deep playoff run, and observers who are already well acquainted with Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray will get a chance to appreciate the subtle greatness of the supporting cast around those two. Gordon, who can shut down any kind of opposing offensive player with his elite isolation defense and whose mind-meld with Jokić on offense has only strengthened this season, is bound to open some eyes.

Most of the praise coming Gordon's way will stem from fans better understanding and appreciating what he can do as they get a second full postseason look at his game. But part of it will owe to the change in the way head coach Michael Malone uses him. Last year, Gordon logged an estimated 1.0 percent of his regular season minutes at center. That number climbed to 10.0 percent in 2023-24 as the Nuggets realized Gordon could handle larger matchups, and that his passing could unlock intriguing, defensively dominant small-ball looks when Jokić was off the floor.

Watch for those stretches in these playoffs. They'll offer a new facet of Gordon's game and demonstrate another of the many ways in which he drives high-level winning. Everybody remembers role players who made massive contributions across multiple postseason runs. Gordon has a shot to put himself up there with the likes of Robert Horry, Danny Green, Andre Iguodala and others who didn't "star" in the traditional sense, but who still put their stamps on the biggest games nonetheless.

Alternative path to a playoff breakout: Hellacious highlights. If Gordon does something like this in the postseason, it'll dominate the news cycle for at least 48 hours.

Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers

David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images

Evan Mobley was something of a scapegoat for the Cleveland Cavaliers after last year's brief postseason appearance. Including him here is about more than the mere hope that he can redeem himself. This season provided real signs Mobley is prepared to help Cleveland put on a better performance.

Last postseason felt like a low point for Mobley, as he managed just 9.8 points across five games against the New York Knicks while turning the ball over a dozen times against just 10 assists. Questions about his ability to finish through contact and make decisions on the move didn't just arise; it felt like the answers did, too. Mobley wasn't up for the challenge, at least in that specific matchup.

Though his regular season was interrupted multiple times by injury, Mobley made some encouraging strides. his assist rate climbed from 12.4 percent to a career-high 15.7 percent and he showed a greater ability to play with downhill force, attempting a higher percentage of his shots at point-blank range than ever before. Mobley also averaged more drives per game (despite playing fewer minutes) with a higher assist rate on those attacks than he managed in 2022-23.

Mobley's growth (or perceived lack thereof) seems to always be a hot topic. Missed time made it harder to notice progress this past season, but the 22-year-old improved in important ways. He has a chance to remind everyone why he was regarded as one of the league's best young prospects at this time last year.

Grayson Allen, Phoenix Suns

Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images

Unless the Phoenix Suns make it all the way to the Finals and find the Boston Celtics waiting for them, they won't face a team that has enough depth to put a good perimeter defender on Grayson Allen.

Clearly no higher than the fourth option whenever the Suns have all their top threats on the floor, Allen is the type of shooter who could swing multiple postseason games from beyond the arc. He led the league with a 46.1 percent hit rate from deep this season, largely because opponents never had the resources to put a clampdown stopper on him. Often covered by iffy defenders, Allen zipped around the floor for shots on the move and hit clean standstill looks off of Jusuf Nurkić's excellent short-roll passing.

Allen was a key determinant in his team's success all season. He shot 49.6 percent from long range in Phoenix's wins, and the Suns were 7-3 in games where Allen made at least five threes. Normally, a player that dangerous would get a defense's full attention. But because Phoenix has three top-level scorers ahead of Allen on the depth chart, nobody can devote enough personnel or game-plan attention to stopping him.

With the Suns handing Allen a four-year, $70 million extension on the final day of the regular season, the 28-year-old guard should enter the playoffs in a good headspace. His financial future is secure, he'll know he's not going to see much in the way of top-flight defenders, and he's coming off the best year of his career.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through the 2023-24 regular season.Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.

   

Read 22 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)