Tim Duncan, Victor Wembanyama and David Robinson Getty and B/R Hoops

Ranking Victor Wembanyama and the Greatest Rookie Seasons in NBA History

Bryan Toporek

Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren treated NBA fans to an incredible Rookie of the Year race in 2023-24.

Wembanyama entered the season as the clear front-runner for the award, although Holmgren surpassed him by late November. It didn't take Wembanyama long to soar up the odds leaderboard again, though. He eventually slammed the door on Holmgren after the All-Star break by becoming only the 15th player in league history to log a 5x5 game.

Holmgren likely would have run away with Rookie of the Year this season if not for Wembanyama, but the Spurs wunderkind had a historic rookie campaign. That isn't hyperbole, either.

To determine exactly where Wembanyama's debut NBA campaign ranks since the NBA/ABA merger in 1976, we whittled down the field using player efficiency rating (PER), box plus/minus (BPM) and value over replacement player (VORP). From there, we also considered each player's per-game production, individual accolades and their respective teams' year-over-year improvement.

The verdict? Wemby stacks up with some of the league's best rookies over the past 45-plus years.

Honorable Mention: Chris Paul, New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets (2005-06)

Icon SMI/Icon Sport Media via Getty Images

Per-game stats: 16.1 PTS, 7.8 AST, 5.1 REB, 2.2 STL, 0.6 3FG, 43.0 FG%

After the Atlanta Hawks took Marvin Williams with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2005 NBA draft, the Utah Jazz were on the clock to decide between two point guards: Deron Williams and Chris Paul.

They chose the former. Paul wasted little time trying to prove that they made a mistake.

The Wake Forest product became an instant analytics darling by finishing third leaguewide in steals, seventh in assists and in the top 50 in scoring while turning the ball over only 2.3 times per game. He received all but one first-place vote in the Rookie of the Year voting, with Williams commanding the lone holdout.

The then-Hornets were uprooted to Oklahoma City for most of Paul's rookie campaign because of Hurricane Katrina, but that didn't stop them from making a 20-win jump compared to the previous season. Paul ranked second on the team in scoring (behind David West), but he led all Hornets players in assists and basically any catch-all advanced metric. He was also only the third rookie since the merger to average at least 16 points, 7.5 assists and two steals per game, joining Isiah Thomas and Allen Iverson.

Among qualified rookies, Paul ranks fourth all-time in VORP, fifth in BPM and 10th in PER. He didn't receive an All-Star or All-NBA nod as a rookie, which kept him from climbing higher here relative to some of his all-time peers, but he made up for it later in his career with 12 All-Star selections, 11 All-NBA appearances, six steals titles and five assists titles.

10. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (2003-04)

Per-game stats: 20.9 PTS, 5.9 AST, 5.9 REB, 1.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 41.7 FG%

LeBron James entered the NBA with generational hype in 2003, and he did not disappoint. He made an immediate impact on his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers, who selected him with the No. 1 overall pick in that year's draft.

Although James' efficiency left much to be desired—he shot 41.7 percent overall and 29.0 percent from deep as a rookie—he became only the second player in league history at the time to average at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists during his debut campaign. While Tyreke Evans and Luka Dončić have since joined him on that list, Michael Jordan was the only other player to have accomplished that feat.

James remains the youngest player in league history to have won Rookie of the Year, although that race was by no means a landslide. He received 78 of the 118 first-place votes, while Denver Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony received the other 40. James also remains the youngest player ever to have a 40-point game in the NBA.

The Cavaliers won only 35 games in James' debut season, but that was a marked upgrade over their 15-67 record in 2002-03. Ricky Davis and Zydrunas Ilgauskas were tied for the third-leading scorer on the 2003-04 Cavs at 15.3 points per game apiece, to put James' supporting cast into perspective.

James' dismal efficiency dragged him down in these rankings, but he made up for it by going on to win four championships, four MVPs and four Finals MVPs. He's also been named to an NBA-record 20 All-Star Games and 19 All-NBA teams.

9. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers (2011-12)

Per-game stats: 22.5 PTS, 12.1 REB, 3.8 AST, 0.8 STL, 0.5 BLK, 50.6 FG%

The Los Angeles Clippers selected Blake Griffin with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NBA draft, but they had to wait a year to begin reaping the rewards of that. He suffered a stress fracture in his left knee late in the preseason that wound up sidelining him for the entire 2009-10 campaign.

That time off helped Griffin hit the ground running when he made his regular-season debut in 2010. He racked up a franchise-record 27 straight double-doubles from late November through mid-January, which was the longest double-double streak for any rookie since the NBA/ABA merger.

Griffin is one of only three rookies since the merger to average at least 22 points and 11 rebounds per game, joining Shaquille O'Neal and David Robinson—both of whom will make an appearance here later on. Add in his assists, and he produced yet-to-be-matched season averages during his debut campaign.

Griffin didn't move the needle much in terms of team success right away, as the Clippers went 29-53 without him in 2009-10 and 32-50 in his rookie season. However, they proceeded to finish above .500 and make the playoffs in each of the following six seasons. Meanwhile, Griffin received all 118 first-place votes for Rookie of the Year despite competing with the likes of John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins for the award.

8. Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks (2018-19)

Per-game stats: 21.2 PTS, 7.8 REB, 6.0 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.3 BLK, 42.7 FG%

After becoming the youngest EuroLeague MVP in history, Luka Dončić was perhaps the most divisive prospect toward the top of the 2018 NBA draft. Some questioned how his game would translate to the NBA, while others envisioned him developing into a future MVP candidate.

The latter wound up being right.

When Dončić slipped to third on draft night, the Dallas Mavericks pounced, sending the No. 5 pick (Trae Young) and a future first-rounder to the Atlanta Hawks for the rights to the Slovenian sensation. He rewarded them by becoming the first rookie in NBA history to average at least 21 points, seven rebounds and six assists per game.

While Dončić wasn't named an All-Star or to an All-NBA team as a rookie, he made the All-NBA first team in each of the four ensuing seasons, and he figures to make it five this year. The Mavericks only went from 24-58 in the year prior to Dončić's arrival to 33-49 in his rookie season, but they've made the playoffs in four of the five years since.

Dončić did run away with Rookie of the Year, snagging 98 of the 100 first-place votes. Young received the other two.

7. Magic Johnson, Los Angeles Lakers (1979-80)

Per-game stats: 18.0 PTS, 7.7 REB, 7.3 AST, 2.4 STL, 0.5 BLK, 53.0 FG%

After dueling in the 1979 NCAA tournament championship game, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird took their budding rivalry to the NBA. The Los Angeles Lakers drafted Johnson with the No. 1 overall pick in 1979, while the Boston Celtics had taken Bird at No. 6 overall in 1978 before he returned to Indiana State for his senior season.

Both Johnson and Bird were named All-Stars as rookies, which only Walter Davis had accomplished prior to them. Bird outscored and outrebounded Magic, but Magic ranked seventh leaguewide in assists per game and was fourth in both BPM and VORP that season.

To this day, Magic is the only player in NBA history to average at least 18 points, seven rebounds and seven assists per game as a rookie. While Bird bested him in the Rookie of the Year race—Bird got 63 first-place votes compared to only three for Magic—Magic and the Lakers got the last laugh that season by winning their first of five NBA titles together.

Although we're largely focused on regular-season performance here, Johnson's heroics in the NBA Finals as a rookie can't go overlooked. After Kareem Abdul-Jabbar sprained his ankle in Game 5 against the Philadelphia 76ers, Lakers head coach Paul Westhead started Johnson at center in Game 6, and Magic slammed the door on the Sixers by erupting for 42 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists and three steals.

Johnson remains the only rookie in NBA history to be named Finals MVP.

6. Larry Bird, Boston Celtics (1979-80)

Per-game stats: 21.3 PTS, 10.4 REB, 4.5 AST, 1.7 STL, 0.6 BLK, 47.4 FG%

Unlike longtime rival Magic Johnson, Larry Bird didn't win an NBA championship as a rookie. Some might put Johnson's rookie season ahead of Bird's based on that alone.

However, Bird trounced Magic in Rookie of the Year voting, and he also finished fourth in MVP voting and was named to the All-NBA first team. Johnson did not receive a single vote for MVP, nor did he make either of the All-NBA teams that season.

The Boston Celtics went 29-53 and finished fifth in the Atlantic Division in the year prior to Bird's arrival. During Bird's rookie season, they went 61-21—the best record in the NBA—and made it to the Eastern Conference Finals, where they lost to Julius Erving and the Philadelphia 76ers.

Bird was the first rookie since the NBA/ABA merger to average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game, and to this day, he's the only rookie ever to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and four assists. The Hick from French Lick proved to be worth the wait for the Celtics, who drafted him with the sixth overall pick in 1978 before he returned to Indiana State for his senior season.

Bird went on to win three championships with the Celtics and was a 12-time All-Star, a 10-time All-NBA selection, a three-time MVP and a two-time Finals MVP.

5. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (2023-24)

Per-game stats: 21.4 PTS, 10.6 REB, 3.9 AST, 3.6 BLK, 1.2 STL, 46.5 FG%

To some extent, it's difficult to put Victor Wembanyama's debut NBA campaign into historic perspective. While he should be a shoo-in for both Rookie of the Year and an All-Defense team, it's unclear whether he'll sniff an All-NBA team this year or if he'll put up a fight against Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert for Defensive Player of the Year.

But even based on what we know now, Wembanyama had a rookie season for the ages.

The 7'4" big man is one of only four rookies since the NBA/ABA merger to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks per game, joining Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson and Alonzo Mourning. None of those three came close to Wembanyama's 3.8 assists per game, and that isn't even the biggest thing differentiating him from that trio.

Mourning, O'Neal and Robinson combined to shoot 0-of-7 from three-point range as rookies. Wembanyama finished his rookie season going 128-of-394 from deep (32.5 percent). He's the only rookie in league history to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and one three-pointer per game.

Think that's wild? Brace yourself for this. Wembanyama is one of only six players in NBA history—not just rookies, players of all ages—to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and three blocks per game. Add in his three-point shooting, and he's already accomplishing something that had never been done prior to this season.

It's premature to say that Wembanyama is already on a GOAT trajectory. He'll need to stay healthy and sustain his production for at least a decade before entering that conversation. But his length gives him a rock-solid floor on defense, and his guard-like skills on offense could push him into that territory one day.

4. Shaquille O'Neal, Orlando Magic (1992-93)

Per-game stats: 23.4 PTS, 13.9 REB, 3.5 BLK, 1.9 AST, 0.7 STL, 56.2 FG%

It didn't take Shaquille O'Neal long to make his imprint on the NBA. The Orlando Magic selected him with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1992 draft, and he rewarded them with 68 double-doubles in the 81 games that he played as a rookie.

In the third regular-season game of O'Neal's NBA career, he racked up 35 points on 15-of-25 shooting, 13 rebounds and three blocks against the then-Charlotte Hornets. Two nights later, he had 31 points, 21 rebounds (!) and four blocks against the then-Washington Bullets.

O'Neal finished his rookie season ranked second leaguewide in both rebounds and blocks per game, trailing only Dennis Rodman in the former and Hakeem Olajuwon in the latter. He was also tied with San Antonio Spurs legend David Robinson for eighth in points per game. Meanwhile, the Magic went from 21-61 in the year prior to his arrival to 41-41 during his rookie season.

O'Neal received his first of 14 straight All-Star nods as a rookie, and he was the first rookie since Michael Jordan to be named an All-Star starter. He also received all but two of the 98 first-place votes for Rookie of the Year, with Hornets big man Alonzo Mourning garnering the other two, and he finished seventh in MVP voting that season.

To this day, O'Neal remains the only player since the merger to average at least 23 points and 13 rebounds per game as a rookie. Although he didn't begin winning championships until he signed with the Los Angeles Lakers as a free agent later in the 1990s, he was virtually unstoppable from the moment that he stepped onto an NBA court.

3. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs (1997-98)

Per-game stats: 21.1 PTS, 11.9 REB, 2.7 AST, 2.5 BLK, 0.7 STL, 54.9 FG%

Victor Wembanyama isn't the first franchise-changing big man whom the San Antonio Spurs selected with the No. 1 overall pick. Neither is Tim Duncan, for that matter. That honor belongs to David Robinson, who still might make an appearance later here.

Ten years after the Spurs took Robinson, they once again found themselves with the No. 1 pick and a clear choice in Duncan. The 1996-97 Spurs collapsed after Robinson played only six games, but their reward was a twin tower who would form the foundation of their five championship teams in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Duncan ranked third leaguewide in rebounds, sixth in blocks and 12th in points as a rookie, while Robinson was fifth, fifth and 10th in those categories that season, respectively. That duo pushed the Spurs from an injury-marred 20-62 campaign in 1996-97 to a 56-26 record and a berth in the Western Conference semifinals in 1997-98. (The Spurs won their first of five titles with Duncan the following year.)

Duncan wasn't the unanimous Rookie of the Year that season, but he wasn't far off. He received 113 of the 116 first-place votes, while then-New Jersey Nets forward Keith Van Horn got the other three. He also was fifth in both MVP and Defensive Player of the Year voting and was named to the All-NBA first team and All-Defensive second team.

To this day, Duncan has the third-best VORP of any qualified rookie since the merger, and he's seventh in both PER and BPM. While Duncan's late-career transition to an old-man game is fresher in our collective minds, rookie-season Duncan was a nightmare on both ends of the court, particularly with Robinson flanking him.

2. David Robinson, San Antonio Spurs (1989-90)

Per-game stats: 24.3 PTS, 12.0 REB, 3.9 BLK, 2.0 AST, 1.7 STL

Not only did the San Antonio Spurs get Victor Wembanyama with the No. 1 overall pick in last year's draft and Tim Duncan at that same spot in 1997, but they also landed David Robinson at No. 1 overall in 1987. What is it about Spurs and generational big men?

While the Spurs received instant impacts from both Wembanyama and Duncan, they had to wait for Robinson. As a graduate of the Naval Academy, Robinson had to serve a mandatory two-year stint in active duty before he could begin his NBA career.

The Admiral proved to be worth the wait. After going 21-61 in the year prior to his arrival, the Spurs finished 56-26 atop the Midwest Division in his rookie season. Robinson ranked third leaguewide in blocks per game as a rookie, trailing only Hakeem Olajuwon and Patrick Ewing, and he trailed only Olajuwon in rebounds per game.

Since Robinson made his NBA debut in 1989-90, he was competing with players from the 1989 draft for the Rookie of the Year award. No one else wound up receiving a single vote. He was also named to the All-NBA third team, the All-Defensive second team and an All-Star, and he finished sixth in MVP voting.

Robinson wasn't the only reason why the Spurs had the third-biggest year-over-year turnaround (and the biggest at the time). Still, the Spurs jumped from 15th in defensive rating the year prior to Robinson's arrival to third in his rookie season. That is not a coincidence.

1. Michael Jordan, Chicago Bulls (1984-85)

Per-game stats: 28.2 PTS, 6.5 REB, 5.9 AST, 2.4 STL, 0.8 BLK, 51.5 FG%

Michael Jordan was the No. 3 pick in the 1984 NBA draft, but he didn't take long to start proving why that was a mistake. He ranked third leaguewide in scoring as a rookie, trailing only Bernard King and Larry Bird, and he helped guide the Chicago Bulls to the playoffs to break a three-year postseason drought.

Jordan debuted with a quiet 16 points on 5-of-16 shooting against the then-Washington Bullets, but it didn't take much time for him to heat up. In his third career game, he torched the Milwaukee Bucks with 37 points, six steals, five assists, four rebounds and two blocks in a six-point Bulls win. It was wheels up from there.

Jordan finished the year ranked second leaguewide in PER, BPM and VORP, trailing only Bird in all three categories. That well-rounded production helped him earn an All-Star nod, finish sixth in MVP voting and get named to the All-NBA second team. He also won Rookie of the Year after receiving 57.5 first-place votes compared to 20.5 for No. 1 overall pick Hakeem Olajuwon.

To this day, Jordan remains the only rookie since the NBA/ABA merger to average at least 25 points per game. His Airness also ranks first all-time among qualified rookies since the merger in BPM and VORP, and he's second behind David Robinson in PER.

The Bulls didn't take the same year-over-year leap in Jordan's rookie season that the Spurs did with Robinson, but they proceeded to make the playoffs for 14 straight years, winning six championships along the way. Meanwhile, Jordan went on to rack up six Finals MVPs, five regular-season MVPs, 14 All-Star selections and 11 All-NBA nods.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via Basketball Reference.

   

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