Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Final All-NBA 1st, 2nd, 3rd Team Predictions

Dan Favale

Pencils away. Permanent markers out. It's time for some 2023-24 All-NBA picks with no take-backs.

For those who have tracked the entirety of this process, it hasn't been long since we last met. That means not much has changed in the aggregate.

But this recurring exercise has lent itself to flip-flopping, hair-pulling, teeth-gnashing and self-loathing all along. This isn't just a matter of identifying All-NBA locks. We have to decide on which teams—first, second or third—each selection belongs.

That gets difficult after the first four names on the first-team docket. That says nothing of having to winnow down the field for third-team honors.

Someone(s) worthwhile will invariably get the shaft. Who? How? Why?

Extensive cases for everyone who appears here have already been laid out in previous editions. You can go deeper into more exact numbers and observations there. This final iteration will loop each positionless five-player All-NBA squad together and spotlight the tough calls, snubs and general reasoning.

Remember: This is not the MVP race, which so often boils down to the "does the most with the least award." Team success and impact matter, and believe me when I say that I've considered factors galore. In the end, though, these selections are meant to reflect the 15 most impactful players of the season—relative to the 65 games-played criteria agreed upon by the league and players union.

Scroll on to read me second- and third- and fourth-guess myself.

Notable Ineligibles

Donovan Mitchell and Joel Embiid David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images

The following stars would have received varying levels of All-NBA consideration but will fail to meet the games-played requirements and are therefore ineligible for inclusion (presented in alphabetical order):

1st Team

Nikola Jokić and Jayson Tatum Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images

Somewhere between three and all five of these players are first-team certainties depending on who's making the case. I've mostly leaned toward four locks, with Tatum's slot being the only one up for grabs.

To this point, it wasn't even Tatum's spot to lose. Kawhi Leonard held it down for our first few editions, but his grip on it was never super tight. Some recent uneven play, perhaps fueled by left groin and right knee issues, along with the Los Angeles Clippers' post-All-Star-break descent ended up costing him.

Excluding Tatum from the All-NBA first time until now might have amounted to me overthinking this, if not discrediting his body of work. Leonard shoulders the tougher defensive workload and is the more efficient scorer, but Tatum ferries more responsibility on offense as both a self-creator and table-setter. The gap between them on defense isn't enough to offset that, particularly as Kawhi and Clippers navigate weirdness.

Simplifying this even further is your prerogative. Tatum is the top scorer and rebounder and second-leading assist man for a Boston Celtics squad that has almost a 10-game hold on the league's best record. That counts for something, even if you want to think more deeply about his case.

Discrediting Tatum on the back of an elite supporting group cannot be part of any counter logic. Especially when the Celtics are trucking opponents by 17 points per 100 possessions during the time he logs without Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porziņģis and Derrick White. And yes, it helps that Tatum is converting more than 37 percent of his off-the-bounce triples since the All-Star break.

Good luck to anyone attempting to build cases against Jokić, SGA, Luka or Giannis. The former three are jockeying for position atop the MVP ballot. Some might at least consider Antetokounmpo's spot on shaky footing, in which case Leonard, Jalen Brunson, Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant loom as the most appealing alternatives.

But the Milwaukee Bucks have not underachieved because of Giannis, who is currently out with a calf injury. His numbers remain absurd, and Milwaukee is winning the minutes that he tallies without both Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez.

2nd Team

Anthony Davis and LeBron James Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Cobbling together the All-NBA second team is the easiest part of this shindig to me, because it's populated by five locks.

Leonard is a must-have after earning first-team consideration. The defense remains hellacious, he's averaging roughly 25 points and four assists on the best true shooting percentage of his career, and he hasn't played this many minutes or games since 2016-17.

Dispiriting stretches from the Phoenix Suns aren't enough to throw Durant's candidacy into question. He is seventh in total minutes (at the age of 35!) and has shouldered an outsized defensive burden for much of the year. His offense feels less dynamic, but that hasn't stopped him from clearing 27 points and five assists on 62.8 percent true shooting—numbers only matched this season by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Brunson is going to appear inside the top four or five–maybe even top three—of MVP ballots. He's earned it. Defenses are keying in on him even more amid Julius Randle's absence, and neither the extra attention nor tighter post-All-Star-break whistles is hurting his performance.

Michael Jordan is the only player other than Brunson to have a season in which he posted usage and assist rates north of 30 with a turnover percentage below 10. Brunson also improves the New York Knicks' offensive rating when on the floor by nearly 15 points per 100 possessions—the second-largest swing in the league, behind only Nikola Jokić. Truth be told, he has a first-team All-NBA case and might've even cracked mine if not for the defensive burdens carried by Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum.

Anyone getting bent out of shape after seeing two members of the Los Angeles Lakers here needs to chill. LeBron and AD are having megastar seasons. And it's not like the play-in-bound Los Angeles Lakers suck. They're hovering around 10 games over .500.

Every time I watch Davis play, I become even more miffed that L.A. isn't exponentially better defensively with him on the floor. He juggles more possession-by-possession responsibility than anyone except for maybe Bam Adebayo. (The Lakers are back to allowing fewer points per possession with him on the court. Davis' weird on-off splits were always noisy and unworthy of being taken as gospel, but this shift back to semi-normalcy helps his case.)

Don't call this a career-achievement nod for LeBron. He is topping 25 points and eight assists per game while banging in 58-plus percent of his twos and a career-high 41-plus percent of his threes. Nobody on record has ever hit these benchmarks before. Lower the baselines to a flat 25 points, eight assists, 55 percent shooting on twos and 40 percent clip from deep, and—well, LeBron still stands alone.

3rd Team

Anthony Edwards and Jaylen Brown David Berding/Getty Images

Let's start with the third-team locks.

Edwards is inarguable. The Minnesota Timberwolves can't fight for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and not have an All-NBA inclusion.

It helps that Edwards has leveled up every part of his offense, with the exception of maybe his off-the-bounce jumper. His advancements as a passer and driver have enabled the Wolves to navigate tight spaces all year and kept them afloat during Karl-Anthony Towns' absence due to a torn left meniscus. Edwards also has an All-Defensive gear, both on and off the ball, that he's reaching more frequently and that no one else on the third team can.

Booker remains one of the league's most dynamic scorers and complete-package offensive players. His passing is still underrated, and that isn't going to change given Phoenix's fourth-quarter issues for most of this season.

Still, Booker joins Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson, Luka Dončić and Joel Embiid as the only players averaging more than 27 points with an assist rate above 30. Brunson is the lone name from that gaggle with a lower turnover percentage. The Suns' performance during Booker's solo-star minutes etches his spot in stone even though he barely ranks in the top 50 of total minutes played.

After not appearing in the inaugural All-NBA brainstorm, Sabonis has emerged as a lock himself. It's fine if you think plenty of other players are better in a vacuum and more suited to postseason basketball, but this is a regular-season honor. Sabonis has entered points, rebounds and assists territory only ever explored by Wilt Chamberlain while logging the second-most minutes.

Guaranteed inclusions end there for me. The last two slots came down to Brown, Curry, Victor Wembanyama, Bam Adebayo, Paolo Banchero, Paul George, Tyrese Haliburton, Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Williams. De'Aaron Fox, Rudy Gobert, Chet Holmgren and Zion Williamson loomed on the periphery.

Brown came close to a lock in the end. He assumes more of a self-creation burden and continues to uncork more on-ball counters than many recognize, and his defense for 85 percent of the season qualifies as stifling. That's no small feat considering the assignments he routinely tackles.

The final spot came down to Curry, George, Haliburton and Wembanyama. Going with Wemby is a touch too ambitious—the first quarter or so of the season still happened.

Though Hali once profiled as a first-team lock, his iffy post-injury sample is now larger than his initial round of transcendent play. Playing through hamstring issues and taking on more off-ball work following Pascal Siakam's arrival are reasonable caveats, but they make a difference at this level.

Curry versus George versus Haliburton still stung. The combination of Steph's offensive centrality and gravity and efficiency won me over. George doesn't have a case for rivaling Curry's workload. Haliburton has him beat (easily) as the passer (almost 11 assists per game to just over five), but Steph is averaging more points (26.3 to 20.3) and now edges him out in true shooting percentage. Curry's overall season has featured fewer warring extremes, too.

At this point, Haliburton generates more of his own looks. But the energy Curry expends to get the ball is second to none—and enough to nudge up Golden State's offensive performance by a (slightly) larger margin than Hali does for Indy.

Honorable Mentions

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama Photos by Darren Carroll/NBAE via Getty Images

Haliburton was the toughest cut and strongest honorable mention. George's case doesn't need much context, as his impact touches every area of the game. He is a star who shape-shifts. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kawhi Leonard are the only other players averaging over 20 points per game with at least an assist rate of 15, a true shooting percentage above 60, a steal rate of at least 2 percent and block rate of 1 percent or more.

Splashing around honorable-mention waters won't stop people from declaring this is a rush to coronate the other three. It's not.

Maxey is averaging around 26 points and six assists. His true shooting percentage has ducked just below league average, but he's still at 50 percent on twos and 37 percent on a high volume of threes.

That Maxey isn't less efficient registers as a minor miracle considering his increased usage and the time he's spent without Joel Embiid. Speaking of which: The Philadelphia 76ers remain a net plus when Maxey plays without his MVP teammate. That is almost entirely a testament to Maxey's growth on offense, where he's a quicker, more variable decision-maker when attacking downhill.

Wembanyama has an All-Defensive team argument, if not straight-up Defensive Player of the Year. He separates himself from honorable-mention candidates in the same boat like Bam Adebayo and Rudy Gobert with his offensive dimensions.

Adebayo remains a distinctly better passer than Wembanyama, but Wemby's live-dribble deference is progressing. More than that, the rookie can score from additional levels—which is to say, all of them.

Since the San Antonio Spurs moved Wembanyama to the 5 back in December, he is one of eight players to launch at least 100 pull-up threes and shoot 39 percent or better on them. The league should be scared terrified resigned to bending at his every whim for the foreseeable future.

Dinging Wemby for playing more low-stakes minutes than anyone we've mentioned is somewhat fair. But the Spurs defense rates in the 78th percentile with him on the floor, and the team has won his minutes since the middle of December—a 50-game sample that accounts for most of the season.

"OK, Wemby as a top-20 player is fine. But Jalen Williams?1?"

This oversimplifies what's happening. All-NBA discussions aren't exact proxies for player rankings. With that said: Yes, Jalen Williams.

Arguing against this choice is easy. But it'll come down to propping up someone else rather than discrediting J-Dub's credentials. The sophomore is so often painted as an up-and-coming complement to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He's more.

Non-stars don't average around 19.5 points and 4.5 assists on an elite true shooting percentage while creating a majority of their own buckets. They don't jack over 100 step-back jumpers, almost evenly split between twos and threes. They certainly don't post an effective field-goal percentage above 60 on these looks.

They don't spearhead winning lineups without either of their team's two other top-three players. And they most definitely don't solicit All-Defense team considerations while guarding everyone from movement-shooting guards and primary-playmaker wings to actual bigs and whatever the hell we're supposed to call Wembanyama.

This is what J-Dub has done. So if this is a rush to coronate, then it's only nanoseconds ahead of schedule.

Full All-NBA Picks

Luka Dončić and Nikola Jokić Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

First Team

Second Team

Third Team

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.

Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.

   

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