The 2024 men's NCAA Tournament is in the books, and the 2023-24 NBA season is days away from its final buzzer.
NBA draft season is here, folks.
While prospects will have opportunities to improve their stock at the combine and on the workout circuit, their values are as crystallized now as they've been at any point throughout the process. So, let's see how analysts really feel about this class by breaking down three recent expert mocks.
The Debates Start Right at the Top
In a lot of years, the top prosect in the class would've already cemented his spot by now. This is not one of those years.
Multiple prospects remain in play for the No. 1 pick, as evidenced by the fact there wasn't a consensus choice on the mocks from B/R's Jonathan Wasserman, Yahoo Sports' Krysten Peek and CBS Sports' Kyle Boone. While the first two mocked French 7-footer Alexandre Sarr at No. 1, Boone went with French swingman Zaccharie Risacher in that spot. Sarr, meanwhile, slipped to No. 3 in Boone's mock, while Risacher went second for Peek and fourth for Wasserman.
"There is no doubt that the primary draw to Sarr revolves around his potential defensive impact as a roaming shot-blocker who can sit in a stance and guard ball-handlers and wings around the perimeter," Wasserman wrote. "But he's become a strong candidate to go No. 1 thanks to glimpses of three-point range, pull-up shooting and open-floor ball-handling—unique skills for a 7'1", switchable rim protector."
Peek labeled Sarr "an elite rim protector" while also citing his "improvement in his footwork off the block and with taking players off the dribble." Boone, meanwhile, projected Risacher at No. 1 "because of his long-term upside," and noted that 6'9" wings "who can handle and shoot with ease the way he can don't slip far."
Where Do NCAA Tournament Stars Wind Up?
While Purdue star center Zach Edey couldn't quite wrap a national championship bow around his decorated career, he left little doubt about his standing as the best player in men's college basketball—this season and last season. He paced all title game participants in points (37) and rebounds (10) while shooting 15-of-25 overall and 7-of-10 from the stripe.
Scouts, though, still don't seem totally sold on his NBA outlook. Edey, who plays a throwback game on the low post, wasn't a top-20 pick for any of these experts, and actually fell out of the first round for Peek, who mocked him at No. 31. Wasserman mocked Edey at No. 21, while Boone slotted the big fella at No. 22 and said teams would "be very interested in him late in the first—if not before this."
As for Edey's opponents in that championship bout, the UConn Huskies were well represented in these mocks. The two experts who mocked both rounds included five Huskies among their selections: Stephon Castle (No. 7 for Wasserman, No. 3 for Peek), Donovan Clingan (Nos. 6 and 5), Tristen Newton (Nos. 51 and 45), Alex Karaban (Nos. 54 and 57) and Cam Spencer (Nos. 56 and 47).
Boone's one-round mock had Clingan at No. 5, Castle at No. 8 and Newton at No. 30. While Wasserman cited "flaws tied to Tristen Newton's athletic limitations and shooting," Bone felt Newton will "end up getting more serious looks as teams dig deeper" given his productivity and role on a championship team.
Tiering the Lottery
While a draft class as fluid as this will spawn more than its fair share of disagreements, you can still find some trends that help tier the top prosects.
For instance, you could perhaps construct a top tier that includes Sarr and Risacher with Kentucky guards Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard. The first two were top-four picks for all three experts, while Dillingham and Sheppard were mocked in that range by two of the three. And even the expert who was lowest on the Wildcats (Peek) still had Sheppard going sixth and Dillingham going seventh.
Then, there's essentially a five-prospect group behind them with Clingan, Castle, Serbian guard Nikola Topić and G League Ignite wings Matas Buzelis and Ron Holland. They were the only other prospects to crack the top 10 of all three mocks with experts generally a touch higher on Clingan (average draft spot: 5.3), Castle (5.3) and Topić (6.3) than Buzelis (8.3) and Holland (8.7).
Finally, there were six other prospects who were lottery picks for at least two of the experts. Colorado swingman Cody Williams (10) and Tennessee sharpshooter Dalton Knecht (11.7) cracked all three mock lotteries, while French forward Tidjane Salaun (11.5), Baylor wing Ja'Kobe Walter (11.5), USC guard Collier (13.5) and Duke stretch big Kyle Filipowski (13.5) made two of them.
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