Twenty-nine different MLB players hit 30 home runs during the 2023 season, with Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson leading the NL with 54 homers and Shohei Ohtani pacing the AL with 44 long balls.

From that group, Luis Robert Jr. (38), Jake Burger (34), Julio Rodríguez (32), Isaac Paredes (31), Spencer Torkelson (31), Cal Raleigh (30), Brent Rooker (30) and Bobby Witt Jr. (30) were the eight players who slugged 30 homers for the first time in their career.

So who will reach that milestone for the first time in 2024?

Ahead we've highlighted the 10 players most likely to have their first 30-homer season in 2024, with our picks based on previous track record, batted-ball metrics and early trends to start the new season.

Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets

2023 HR Total: 25

Some areas of Francisco Alvarez's game are still developing, most notably his on-base skills after he posted a .284 on-base percentage in 423 plate appearances as a rookie last year.

The 22-year-old also needs to find more consistency at the plate after going through several prolonged slumps, but that's not out of the ordinary for a rookie seeing his first extended MLB action.

However, one area of his game that is already elite is his in-game power production after he slugged 25 home runs in 123 games in 2023, the sixth-highest home run total ever by a rookie catcher.

There is no reason to think he won't run into a few more mistakes this year and vault that total over the 30 threshold.

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox

2023 HR Total: 24

Triston Casas was one of the best hitters in baseball after the All-Star break last season.

The Boston Red Sox rookie first baseman hit .317/.417/.617 with 15 home runs and 38 RBI in 54 games during the second half, and his 1.034 OPS trailed only Shohei Ohtani (1.098), Matt Olson (1.077) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (1.039) among all qualified hitters.

With a strong 6'5", 244-pound frame and a smooth left-handed stroke, he fits the mold of a prototypical power hitter, and his batted-ball metrics last season back up his strong surface-level numbers.

Still only 24 years old, the best is yet to come from Casas, who has a chance to join Rafael Devers as a franchise cornerstone in the coming years.

Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates

2023 HR Total: 1

After showcasing his rare five-tool skill set as a rookie in 2022 with 17 home runs, 10 steals and 2.3 WAR in 87 games, Oneil Cruz was a popular breakout pick heading into 2023.

Unfortunately, his season lasted just nine games before he suffered a season-ending fractured left fibula on a play at the plate, delaying his potential arrival as a rising star for the rebuilding Pittsburgh Pirates.

With a clean bill of health, he is off to a hot start for a Pirates team that looks poised to take a step forward in the standings, hitting .333/.364/.500 with two home runs in 44 plate appearances over his first 10 games.

The 25-year-old has a chance to be a perennial 30/30 threat once he settles in as an everyday big leaguer, and so far over 108 games, he is on a 32-homer pace per 162 games for his MLB career.

Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros

2023 HR Total: 23

Yainer Diaz spent much of his rookie season on the bench behind veteran catcher Martín Maldonado, but now the starting catcher job is his and he looks poised to emerge as one of the game's elite offensive backstops.

His 23 home runs last season came in only 355 at bats, giving him a 15.4 at-bat per home run ratio that was better than those of Ronald Acuña Jr. (16.0), Juan Soto (16.2), Rafael Devers (17.6) and countless other established offensive stars.

The 25-year-old also has the benefit of hitting in a stacked lineup behind José Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, so he should see plenty of pitches to hit with runners on base ahead of him.

He ranked in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage last year, and he is swinging a hot bat to open the 2024 season.

Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals

2023 HR Total: 27

Nolan Gorman was hyped as one of the best power-hitting prospects in the 2018 draft when he was selected No. 19 overall by the St. Louis Cardinals, and he continued to flash big-time pop during his time in the minors.

He hit 14 home runs in 89 games as a rookie in 2022 and then posted a 117 OPS+ with 27 home runs and 76 RBI in 464 plate appearances last season while splitting his time between second base, third base and designated hitter.

The 23-year-old now has a chance to settle in as the team's everyday second baseman, and that should help him post career-best offensive numbers across the board.

With Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt both exiting their respective primes, Gorman has the potential to be the team's biggest run producer in the coming years while continuing to crush home runs.

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles

2023 HR Total: 28

Gunnar Henderson put together such a well-rounded rookie season that his power production flew under the radar a bit, as he posted a 126 OPS+ and played terrific defense on the left side of the infield en route to a 6.2-WAR season.

After hitting just five home runs during the first two months of the season, he launched 23 long balls from June 1 through the end of the year to run away with AL Rookie of the Year honors.

The next step forward in his development will be improving against left-handed pitching after he hit .210/.293/.324 with three homers in 167 plate appearances against southpaws, so there is plenty of room for him to boost what were already terrific numbers a year ago.

The 22-year-old is no longer bouncing all over the infield, settling in as the Orioles' everyday shortstop, and that could also help him turn more attention to the offensive side of his game.

Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers

2023 HR Total: 0

Wyatt Langford hit .373/.498/.784 with 21 home runs in 64 games at the University of Florida last spring before going No. 4 overall in the 2023 draft, and he continued to rake after starting his pro career.

He hit another 10 home runs in 44 games across four minor league levels after signing, so technically he did tally 31 home runs in 108 total games between college and the minor leagues last year.

The 22-year-old played his way onto the Opening Day roster by hitting .365/.423/.714 with six home runs and 20 RBI in 71 plate appearances, and while he is still searching for his first big league homer, his power is the real deal.

"A complete package at the plate, Langford stands out most with his plus-plus power to all fields, which he generates with an easy right-handed stroke that lets him launch balls in the air," MLB.com wrote in his prospect profile. "By letting his massive strength, electric bat speed and natural loft work for him without swinging for the fences, he makes consistent loud contact and projects as a .280 hitter with 35 or more homers per season."

Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies

2023 HR Total: 23

Ryan McMahon has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past four full seasons, but he has yet to reach the 30-homer mark entering his age-29 season and his eighth year in the majors.

So why will this year be different?

It's a small sample size, but his hard-hit rate (44.2 to 57.1 percent), average exit velocity (90.8 to 95.4 mph) and launch angle (9.7 to 11.2 degrees) have all spiked in the early going this season.

He is hitting .389/.452/.611 with two doubles, two home runs and seven RBI through his first 10 games, and while it's shaping up to be another long season for the Colorado Rockies, he has the potential to be a major bright spot.

Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs

2023 HR Total: 26

It remains to be seen if Christopher Morel can handle third base in the majors after he has made three errors in 10 chances to start the year, but he can flat-out hit, and the Chicago Cubs will find a way to get his bat into the everyday lineup.

The 24-year-old ranked among the MLB leaders in average exit velocity (91st percentile), hard-hit rate (92nd percentile) and barrel rate (95th percentile) last year, and those tools give him clear 30-homer potential.

Cutting down on a 31.0 percent strikeout rate will be the key to unlocking his full offensive potential, and he has made strides in the early going this year with just four strikeouts through his first 38 plate appearances.

If he gets 600 plate appearances, he could rank among the NL leaders in home runs this season as he looks to turn last year's success into a true breakout campaign.

Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds

2023 HR Total: 23

Elly De La Cruz has the highest ceiling of any young player on the Cincinnati roster, and he generates the most buzz as a result, but don't be surprised if Spencer Steer has the better 2024 season.

The 26-year-old finished sixth in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season when he hit .271/.356/.464 for a 119 OPS+ with 37 doubles, 23 home runs and 86 RBI in 156 games.

He has been one of baseball's hottest hitters in the early going this year, batting .406/.500/.813 with three home runs and 12 RBI in nine games, and those numbers are accompanied by a staggering 57.7 percent hard-hit rate.

Even with some regression relative to his hot start, he still has plenty of room to improve over last year's numbers, and playing his home games in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park helps his chances of reaching the 30-homer mark.

Statistics via Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.