Gonzaga, Kansas and Michigan State have made it look easy to maintain dominance in men's college basketball year after year, each playing in at least 25 consecutive NCAA tournaments.

But it's not easy.

Heck, two of those streaks almost ended this year.

Leaders graduate. Stars declare for the NBA draft. Nearly 1,500 players are already in the transfer portal. Coaches leave for greener pastures.

Sometimes, we barely recognize anything other than a team's jersey by the time November rolls around.

As a result, many of the top teams from one season end up missing the dance altogether the following March.

Of the 32 teams that earned a No. 8 seed or better in the 2023 dance, 10 missed the cut this year. That's not exactly unusual, either. There were nine such cases the previous year and 10 the year before that.

Looking at that same pool of 32 candidates from this year's field, it's not hard to pinpoint a few teams unlikely to participate in the 2024 NCAA tournament.

Needless to say, there are plenty of unknowns still in play. There are still a few big-name recruits available, most notably Liam McNeeley. Many NBA draft decisions are yet to be made. Of the myriad players who have entered the portal, well over 1,000 are still there for the taking. And it's likely just a matter of time before a few hundred more players join that list of "free agents."

But we can still make some way-too-early educated guesses at which teams are most likely to experience a bit of painful rebuilding.

Teams are listed in ascending order of their seed in the 2024 NCAA tournament.

No. 8: Florida Atlantic Owls

Players Graduating: Bryan Greenlee, Jalen Gaffney

Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Johnell Davis, Vladislav Goldin, Giancarlo Rosado, Nick Boyd, Alijah Martin, Isaiah Gaines

Noteworthy Arrivals: Elijah Elliott (3-star CG)

Each of the four No. 8 seeds from the 2023 tournament failed to make it this year, and there is a good chance that happens again next year with Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State, Nebraska and Utah State all liable to crash and burn.

But if this exercise is a Bingo board, FAU is the free space in the middle.

As far as scoring average is concerned, the Owls are losing Nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8. For now, No. 5 Brandon Weatherspoon might be back, though there has been a lot of speculation that he might transfer to Mississippi State, where his older brother Quinndary was a star from 2016-19.

If he does leave, FAU will need to replace all eight guys who scored at least 100 points this season, as there has been a mass exodus to the transfer portal since Dusty May took the job at Michigan.

Granted, we did just see Utah State pull off the unthinkable by making it back to the tournament after changing coaches and replacing every single player who scored a point the previous season.

However, that was very much the exception to the rule.

Even Penn State putting together a 16-win season after losing 95 percent of last year's scoring felt like a near miracle, as it is just plain difficult to basically reconstruct an entire team in one offseason.

Moreover, those two teams already had quite the leg up on a few key transfers. Danny Sprinkle brought Great Osobor and Darius Brown with him from Montana State, where he was the head coach. Mike Rhoades took Ace Baldwin and Nick Kern when he left VCU for the PSU opening. John Jakus hasn't been a D-I head coach before, and might have a hard time convincing any impact players to follow him from Baylor to FAU.

No. 7: Washington State Cougars

Players Graduating: Isaac Jones

Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Almost everyone else

Noteworthy Arrivals: Marcus Wilson (3-star CG)

There are 11 players who scored at least one point for the Washington State Cougars this season.

Leading scorer Isaac Jones is out of eligibility.

Jaylen Wells has declared for the draft, albeit while maintaining his college eligibility and not entering the transfer portal, so he might be back.

And then everyone else is in the transfer portal, with the exception of Isaiah Watts, who ranked eighth on the team in scoring as a freshman reserve.

Now, entering the portal doesn't necessarily mean those players are gone. None of them has committed to a new school yet, and it's plausible that new head coach David Riley (from Eastern Washington) manages to re-recruit some of them into staying in Pullman. If he can win over Myles Rice and convince that star point guard to stick around, that would be absolutely massive.

In its current state, though, Wazzu's roster situation is bleak. And the upcoming transition from the Pac-12 to the WCC isn't exactly helping the school from a marketability or recruiting pull standpoint—not that Washington State was ever landing 5-star recruits in the first place.

The simple fact of the matter here is the Cougars are fighting an uphill battle. They just made it back to the tournament for the first time since 2008, and now they potentially need to start over from scratch in a non-major league where Gonzaga might be one of the five best teams in the nation.

It's not impossible, but it's also not likely that Washington State is dancing again in 11 months' time.

No. 6: South Carolina Gamecocks

Players Graduating: BJ Mack, Ta'Lon Cooper

Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Meechie Johnson

Noteworthy Arrivals: Trent Noah (3-star SF)

The gigantic question mark for the South Carolina Gamecocks is Collin Murray-Boyles.

The freshman power forward was unable to play in November due to an illness and didn't really start making an impact until late-January. Once he did, though, he quickly blossomed into a machine in the paint, filling up the stat sheet on a nightly basis.

Early indications are that Murray-Boyles will be back for a sophomore season, with On3's Wes Mitchell reporting last week that he signed an NIL deal with Garnet Trust. But until the draft declaration window is officially closed, never say never.

Even if we assume Murray-Boyles is back, though, who's going to run this offense?

Ta'Lon Cooper led the Gamecocks in assists and was their best three-point weapon, but he's out of eligibility. So is BJ Mack, who led the team in rebounds and finished two points shy of the team lead in points, trailing only Meechie Johnson, who has transferred back to Columbus, Ohio after two years in Columbia, South Carolina.

Lamont Paris could always add an experienced point guard from the portal. Goodness knows there are plenty in there already. But from what's currently on the roster, it's pretty much Jacobi Wright or bust—and he struggled as the occasional starting point guard two years ago.

Now throw in the fact that the predictive metrics never thought this was a good team in the first place.

South Carolina ended up at No. 54 in the KenPom rankings, never once making it into the top 40. The Gamecocks also ended up outside the top 50 in the NET rankings. Wouldn't exactly take a colossal fall from grace for this team to miss the dance in 2025.

No. 5: Wisconsin Badgers

Players Graduating: Tyler Wahl

Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: AJ Storr, Connor Essegian

Noteworthy Arrivals: Daniel Freitag (3-star PG), Jack Robison (3-star SG)

Here's where picking one team from each seed line starts to get more challenging.

With the Nos. 6-8 seeds, it's a question of which of the likely candidates to miss next year's tournament feels most like a guarantee to do so. But with the No. 5 seeds, Gonzaga and Saint Mary's aren't going anywhere, and though San Diego State is going to lose Jaedon LeDee and several other impact players, can we really doubt Brian Dutcher after five consecutive years as a KenPom top 30 team?

That leaves Wisconsin as the team most likely to flounder in 2024-25, which isn't all that far-fetched, given the Badgers already floundered throughout February and much of March, ultimately getting kind of blown out by No. 12 seed James Madison.

Despite losing Tyler Wahl, AJ Storr and Connor Essegian, the Badgers should have a solid nucleus, though.

Steven Crowl will be back to anchor the frontcourt, with Nolan Winter—a top 100 recruit from the 2023 class who didn't play a ton as a freshman reserve—the most likely candidate to absorb Wahl's minutes. They also should have both Chucky Hepburn and Max Klesmit back as veteran leaders in the backcourt, along with John Blackwell, who had a solid freshman year, averaging eight points per game. The two incoming freshmen noted above (Freitag and Robison) both rank just barely outside the 247 Sports top 100, as well.

But is that enough?

Wisconsin missed the tournament in 2023 before playing some of its worst defense in decades this season. (Though, Storr's departure ought to be addition by subtraction on that end of the floor.) This simply was not a good team over the final two months of the year, save for one overtime win over Purdue in the Big Ten tournament. And losing three of the four leading scorers from that squad could lead to even more of a drop off.

No. 4: None

If you forced me to choose one of Alabama, Auburn, Duke or Kansas to miss the 2025 NCAA tournament, I guess the pick would be Auburn?

Alabama could bring just about everyone back from a Final Four team. Duke has Cooper Flagg as the star of an absolutely loaded recruiting class, and might get a couple of key players back for another year. Kansas has already added Zeke Mayo and Riley Kugel from the transfer portal and may well have both Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams returning. All three might/should open next season in the Top 10 of the AP poll.

But Auburn could, too, provided Johni Broome comes back for one more year.

The Tigers are losing second-leading scorer Jaylin Williams as a graduate, as well as guards KD Johnson and Tre Donaldson to the transfer portal. However, Broome and absurd depth are what made this team so good this season.

Though he entered the transfer portal, it's possible Aden Holloway returns for a second season, too, and Auburn is one of the finalists to land Furman transfer JP Pegues. If that happens, the Tigers could have a starting five of Holloway, Pegues, Denver Jones, Chad Baker-Mazara and Broome with Dylan Cardwell, Chaney Johnson and star incoming freshman Tahaad Pettiford coming off the bench for what would be an absurdly deep rotation once again.

If you want to bet against that team making the tournament, have fun on that island. But I expect all four of this year's No. 4 seeds to be top-four seeds in 2025, as well. (File that one away for a couple months from now when the transfer portal whirlwind has concluded to see if it still rings true.)

No. 3: Illinois Fighting Illini

Players Graduating: Terrence Shannon Jr., Quincy Guerrier, Marcus Domask?

Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Coleman Hawkins, Dain Dainja

Noteworthy Arrivals: Morez Johnson (4-star PF), Jase Butler (4-star CG), Jason Jakstys (3-star PF), Jake Davis (Mercer transfer), Tre White (Louisville transfer)

At this stage in the offseason, a whole lot of teams have more questions than answers.

But Illinois has three gigantic questions.

A) Will Coleman Hawkins be coming back? After the loss to Connecticut in the Elite Eight, Hawkins told Field of 68's Jeff Goodman, "I think this was my last ride at Illinois." He isn't yet in the portal and he hasn't made any draft declarations yet, but at least the initial indications are that he won't be back in Champaign next season.

B) Will Marcus Domask be coming back? There have been some unsubstantiated rumblings that Domask is pursuing a sixth year of eligibility, under the grounds that he could be able to get a medical redshirt for the 2020-21 season when he only appeared in 10 games. It's unclear whether he'll be able to win that battle, if he'll fight it at all or even whether he would use that additional year to return to Illinois. Let's call it 50/50, though.

C) Will AJ Storr be coming in? There were "reports" of the Wisconsin transfer taking his talents to Illinois, but those reports notably came out on April 1, they weren't from any sort of reputable source and we were subsequently told two days later that Storr was requesting $1 million from Kansas to transfer there. He could still end up with the Illini, but that hardly seems imminent.

Even if it's not Storr, though, you just know Brad Underwood is going to snag a key transfer or three. He does it every year. But if they don't get either Hawkins or Domask back while also losing Terrence Shannon Jr. and Quincy Guerrier, that's an awful lot of change to make in a single offseason.

Bonus No. 3: Kentucky Wildcats

Players Graduating: Antonio Reeves, Tre Mitchell

Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Justin Edwards, Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, DJ Wagner, Adou Thiero, Aaron Bradshaw

Noteworthy Arrivals: Boogie Fland (4-star PG), Billy Richmond (4-star SG), Somto Cyril (4-star C), Travis Perry (4-star PG)

In most years, we're able to write the vast majority of this article prior to Final Four weekend and then just make some transfer portal-related tweaks before getting it ready to publish a couple of days after the title game.

But John Calipari leaving Kentucky for Arkansas on Sunday night necessitated a little more than just a tweak. And after we went with no pick from the No. 4 seed line, we might as well double dip on the No. 3 seed line by adding the Wildcats to the list.

At this point, we officially have no clue what Kentucky's roster will look like next season.

Calipari had put together one of the top recruiting classes in the country, per usual, but how many of those guys are going to bail and now follow him to Fayetteville?

Already, one of the top overall recruits in the nation, Jayden Quaintance, has decommitted from the Wildcats. So has Karter Knox. They may well lose more of the high 4-star players Calipari had signed.

We also don't currently know who will be coaching in Lexington next season. If Kentucky is able to swing big and get a Scott Drew, Nate Oats or even Billy Donovan, maybe it can avoid going through a disappointing transitional year. However, a coaching change nearly three weeks after the transfer portal opened is a tough ask, even from what could be a home run of a hire.

Whatever happens, it needs to happen fast. And by the end of April, perhaps we'll feel a whole lot better about Kentucky's chances of contending next season. For now, though, it's not even a stretch to suggest the Wildcats could miss the dance in 2025.

No. 2: Tennessee Volunteers

Players Graduating: Dalton Knecht, Josiah-Jordan James, Santiago Vescovi

Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Tobe Awaka, Freddie Dilione V

Noteworthy Arrivals: Bishop Boswell (4-star CG)

Can Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes hit another Dalton Knecht-sized home run in the transfer portal?

While also replacing two other graduating starters in Josiah-Jordan James and Santiago Vescovi, who were major defensive assets and respectable perimeter weapons?

It's a lot to ask, but it's plenty reasonable to assume the Volunteers will be able to pull it off. Because while Barnes has a history of early exits from the NCAA tournament, he does almost always at least make it to the dance, missing only three times dating back to 1996.

They were very likely going to miss the cut if there had been a tournament in 2020, though, which was the year after they had to replace four starters (including Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield) from a team that earned a No. 2 seed. And while Zakai Zeigler, Jonas Aidoo, Jahmai Mashack and Jordan Gainey are all expected to return as seniors, what they're losing this offseason is almost as much as what they lost a half-decade ago.

Granted, the art of building a roster has changed an awful lot since then. That 2019-20 team didn't add a single transfer, instead relying pretty heavily upon both Vescovi and James as freshmen. It's a safe assumption Barnes will add at least one veteran scorer from the portal this offseason, which would be big, even if it is one who can barely hold a candle to Knecht's ability to completely take over a game.

Will it be enough, though?

And could this be Barnes' last season before retirement? He turns 70 in July, and riding off into the sunset alongside the four aforementioned seniors would be a clean break of sorts. Whether Tennessee makes the tournament might impact that decision.

No. 1: North Carolina Tar Heels

Players Graduating: Armando Bacot, Cormac Ryan, Paxson Wojcik

Players Likely Leaving Early/Transferring: Seth Trimble, James Okonkwo

Noteworthy Arrivals: Ian Jackson (5-star SG), Drake Powell (5-star SF), James Brown (3-star C)

Over the past few years, No. 1 seeds have had minimal difficulty making it back to the tournament.

Of the 12 total teams to earn a No. 1 seed from 2021-23, five received a No. 1 seed again the following year, and 11 of the 12 got a No. 4 seed or better. The only close call was Michigan, which got a No. 11 seed in 2022.

Going from a No. 1 seed to missing the tournament the following year has happened, though, most recently when 2018 No. 1 seed Xavier fell apart after losing its head coach and more than two-thirds of its scoring. And it happened twice to Florida, once in 2015, the other in 2008 after winning those back-to-back national championships.

It also already happened once to North Carolina, after it won the national championship in 2009.

The big unknown with the Tar Heels is RJ Davis, who blossomed into one of the most proficient scorers in the country, who still has a year of eligibility remaining and who hasn't gotten much love in the NBA mock draft community, in part because he's a little undersized at 6'0". There's a good chance he comes back for a fifth season, but maybe he goes pro.

It's also plausible Harrison Ingram leaves for the NBA, as the former 5-star recruit and transfer from Stanford has blossomed into a borderline first-round prospect. (Our Jonathan Wasserman had Ingram going at No. 27 in his updated mock draft last week.)

And if the Tar Heels lose both of those leaders in addition to Armando Bacot and Cormac Ryan, they would be in some serious trouble, even with a pair of 5-star recruits coming in.