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Predicting Each MLB Team's Most Valuable Player in 2024

Tim Kelly

It can be argued that three of the top four candidates for NL MVP are on the same team. Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have a combined four league MVP Awards between them.

All three are now teammates on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Meanwhile, in the AL, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are both New York Yankees and probably the top two candidates for MVP in that league. Judge won AL MVP in 2022, and Soto has finished in the top six in NL MVP voting three times, including when he was runner-up to Bryce Harper in 2021.

Of course, only one person in each league can win MVP. Similarly, while there's not an official award given out, only one person can be a team's MVP each year. Determining exactly who that is, specifically on teams such as the Dodgers and Yankees, can be difficult.

On other clubs, you have to decide whether a pitcher can be the MVP, even if they don't play every day. And then there's a third type of team—we're looking at you Colorado Rockies, Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox—where someone has to be MVP by default.

With all of these qualifiers acknowledged, here's a look at who projects to be the MVP for each team in 2024.

NL East

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Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr., RF

On any given year, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies or Michael Harris II could probably compete for NL MVP, which gives you an indication of what makes the Braves offense so dangerous.

But Acuña is the defending NL MVP, and with Shohei Ohtani not pitching this year, the Braves star is arguably the best overall player in the sport. He could probably benefit from pacing himself a little more on the basepaths this year, but Acuña is one of the most explosive players the league has to offer.

There hasn't been a repeat NL MVP since Albert Pujols did it in 2008 and 2009.

Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper, 1B

Harper is already one of 32 players in MLB history to win multiple MVPs. Just 11 players have won three MVPs, with Mike Trout the only active player to have done it. Could Harper become the 12th?

Part of winning MVP is having signature performances. Harper already has a three-home run game, which included a grand slam, in 2023. There's a long way to go, but memorable games like that stick in the minds of voters.

Miami Marlins: Luis Arráez, 2B

So far, just about everything that could go wrong with the Marlins has. So don't expect 2024 to be the year Giancarlo Stanton gets company as the only player who has ever won an MVP while playing for the Marlins.

Arráez, though, has won consecutive batting titles. With 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcántara out for the season, the sweet-hitting Arráez projects to be the team MVP in 2024.

New York Mets: Francisco Lindor, SS

Lindor is off to an ice-cold start in 2024, which makes him unlikely to win the award. But Freedie Freeman got off to a very slow start for the Braves during the pandemic-shortened season, only to get scalding hot and win NL MVP.

Lindor has way more time to recover, and he is the type of player it feels like should win an MVP at some point.

Will that MVP come in 2024? Probably not. But the Mets need him to get hot if they are going to make the postseason. And if the Mets aren't in playoff position, their other top potential candidate—Pete Alonso—could very well be traded in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.

Washington Nationals: CJ Abrams, SS

Perhaps a veteran hoping for a bounce-back season—such as Jesse Winker or Joey Gallo—would be the better pick here. Lane Thomas could also be a safe selection on what projects to be one of the poorer teams in the league.

Still, Abrams has gotten off to a strong start at the plate in 2024. He or righty Josiah Gray would be the most welcome team MVP in 2024, as they project to be long-term pieces for the Nationals. Top prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood will likely debut at some point in 2024, but it's unclear if either will be up long enough to be in the running for this.

NL Central

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Milwaukee Brewers: Freddy Peralta, RHP

Let's face it: The Brewers need Peralta to be an NL Cy Young Award contender this year if they hope to make the postseason. All-Star closer Devin Williams is going to miss extended time with stress fractures in his back. Righty Brandon Woodruff is out for the season as he recovers from shoulder surgery. And 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles in February.

Peralta has previously been an elite No. 3 behind Burnes and Woodruff. The Brewers now need him to be a bona fide ace. The good news is that Peralta is off to a strong start, with a 3.09 ERA and 2.75 FIP to show for his first two starts of the season.

Chicago Cubs: Seiya Suzuki, RF

Lefty Justin Steele would have been the pick, but he strained his hamstring on Opening Day, so it's unclear when he'll return.

In terms of position players, the Cubs have a lot of good-to-very good options in Christopher Morel, Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson. The jury is out on whether they have any great options. Seiya Suzuki had an excellent spring and is off to a quick start during the regular season, so he'll get the nod.

But how good would this lineup be if you added a superstar on top of the talent it has?

Cincinnati Reds: Spencer Steer, LF

The Reds are an organization flush with young talent, leaving you with multiple options to pick from. Elly De La Cruz is the biggest name, but he's still raw. TJ Friedl and Matt McLain are core pieces, but both on the injured list to open the season.

Steer is the pick. He homered 23 times and drove in 86 runs a season ago in his rookie campaign. He's already got a grand slam in 2024. Acquired in the August 2022 trade that sent pitcher Tyler Mahle to the Minnesota Twins, Steer appears to be a diamond in the rough.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B

Pittsburgh is off to a hot start for the second year in a row, giving Pirates fans hope that playoff baseball could return to PNC Park for the first time since 2015.

There's a case to be made that for the Pirates to achieve their full potential, shortstop Oneil Cruz will need to have a breakout season that takes him from Statcast superstar to actual superstar. It's unclear how realistic that is.

What we do know is that Hayes won a Gold Glove Award with 21 defensive runs saved and 17 outs above average at third base a year ago. Being that strong of a defender at a premium position, particularly if you continue to grow as a hitter, makes you extremely valuable.

St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado, 3B

Arenado is coming off arguably the worst season of his Hall of Fame-bound career, as he posted a .774 OPS and just one defensive run saved.

Rather than retooling this past offseason, the Cardinals doubled down on an aging core that includes Arenado and 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt. It's fair to be skeptical of the plan in St. Louis, but even if Arenado is no longer at the height of his powers, he's probably still the best overall player on the Cardinals. (Also, it's wild that the highest Arenado has ever finished in MVP voting is third, which he did in 2018 and 2022.)

NL West

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Los Angeles Dodgers: Mookie Betts, SS

The competition here is stiff. Shohei Ohtani won two of the last three AL MVP Awards with the Angels, finishing runner-up to Aaron Judge in 2022. Freddie Freeman is a former NL MVP headed to the Hall of Fame when his career wraps up. But it's Betts who you should, well, bet on.

Betts is already leading the league in fWAR by a pretty significant margin. Not only is he hitting home runs at an incredible clip, but he also has four defensive runs saved at shortstop, a position he had never played at the MLB level until a year ago.

Of course he does.

Not only will Betts be the most valuable Dodger in 2024, but he could finally get over the hump and win NL MVP after finishing runner-up in 2020 and 2023. If he does, the 2018 AL MVP will become just the second player in MLB history to win the award in both leagues, joining Hall of Famer Frank Robinson.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, OF

We finally have the answer of what it would have looked like if the Nationals' experiment of trying to turn Trea Turner into an outfielder in 2016 would have worked out. Carroll has the world-class speed of Turner with an ability to play all three outfield positions, even in the spacious Chase Field.

He's the reigning NL Rookie of the Year and finished fifth in NL MVP voting before leading the Diamondbacks to a surprise pennant. Carroll is the obvious pick for Arizona's MVP, and there's a strong chance he'll one day win NL MVP.

San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr., RF

Though there's still plenty of star power in San Diego, the Padres would have a great narrative if they made the playoffs after losing Juan Soto, Blake Snell and Josh Hader in the offseason. For that to happen, one or more of their stars will have to be in the NL MVP race.

Manny Machado has four top-five MVP finishes in his career, including finishing runner-up to Paul Goldschmidt in 2022. But Machado isn't currently playing in the field as he continues to recover from offseason elbow surgery. At least to some degree, Machado's value is hurt by not playing third base.

Meanwhile, Tatis won the Platinum Glove as the best defender in the NL last season. If he combines that type of defensive production with the .963 OPS he posted between the 2020 and 2021 seasons, he won't just be the MVP of the Padres.

San Francisco Giants: Logan Webb, RHP

Even with the offseason additions of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler, Webb is still the clear pick as the most valuable Giant.

Webb finished runner-up to Snell in NL Cy Young Award voting a year ago, leading baseball with 216 innings pitched. He has a 4.86 ERA through three starts this year, but he's a work horse, and his 3.12 FIP suggests his back-of-the-baseball-card stats will soon look better.

Colorado Rockies: Nolan Jones, LF

Brenton Doyle—a Gold Glove winner who finished with just a .593 OPS a season ago—is hitting at a much better clip early in 2024, which is interesting to monitor.

Still, Jones makes the most sense as the Rockies' MVP pick despite getting out of the gates slowly this year. A season ago, Jones posted a .931 OPS and finished fourth in a crowded NL Rookie of the Year Award race. He's going to come around, specifically since he gets to play 81 games at Coors Field.

AL East

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Baltimore Orioles: Adley Rutschman, C

2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes—particularly because he's in a contract year—drew strong consideration here. So did Gunnar Henderson, and even though he's not yet at the MLB level, Jackson Holliday did as well.

Ultimately, though, Rutschman is the face of the Orioles. He finished runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 and was an All-Star in his first full season in 2023. Rutschman has the chance to have the best peak of any catcher since Buster Posey and help the Orioles to a sustained period of success in the process.

Tampa Bay Rays: Yandy Díaz, 1B

Even more than normal, the Rays are a talented team that lacks star power. Randy Arozarena is the face of the team but seems to only be a superstar when he's on the national stage. Ace Shane McClanahan is going to miss the entire season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.

So perhaps this is the year to truly appreciate the player that Díaz has become. Between 2022 and 2023, Díaz posted an .881 OPS. He won the AL batting title with a .330 batting average last season. Right now, he's the best player on the Rays, a team that always finds a way to be competitive but rarely keeps stars for extended periods.

Toronto Blue Jays: Bo Bichette, SS

For the Blue Jays to compete for the AL East title, they probably need Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to regain the offensive form he showed in 2021, when he finished runner-up to Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting.

However, the two seasons we've seen since then lead you to believe that campaign was an outlier for Guerrero. Granted, Bichette is off to a slow start, but he was a better player than Guerrero between 2022 and 2023. His defensive metrics also improved drastically between 2022 and 2023, going from minus-16 defensive runs saved to five DRS.

Honorable mention to the perpetually underrated Kevin Gausman, who has had a rough start but has had three straight top-nine Cy Young finishes.

New York Yankees: Juan Soto, RF

Is it out of pocket for Aaron Judge not to be picked here? Maybe. But between Judge's injury history and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole being on the injured list, Soto was a relatively easy selection.

Soto is a shoo-in to lead baseball in walks every year and will hit at least 30 home runs this season while playing 81 home games at Yankee Stadium. The most encouraging development is that he has started his contract year with much better play in the outfield.

Soto already has two defensive runs saved and two outs above average in right field, as opposed to the minus-six defensive runs saved and minus-nine outs above average he posted in left field for the Padres last season.

The Yankees should get ready. The total value for Soto's next contract is probably going to start with a five, if not higher.

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers, 3B

It's very encouraging for the Red Sox that offseason acquisition Tyler O'Neill is off to a quick start in Boston. But Lucas Giolito was lost for the season before it began, and Trevor Story might be on the same path after dislocating his left shoulder this past weekend.

So let's be real: The competition is pretty thin for Devers. He was part of a loaded 2018 Red Sox team that won 108 games and the World Series, as he shared a lineup with Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, among others.

Since then, the Red Sox have stopped spending like the Red Sox. Devers is the only true star remaining on the team, which makes him the default selection.

AL Central

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Minnesota Twins: Pablo López, RHP

With the offseason departure of last year's AL Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray, the Twins are even more dependent on López in his second year with the team. During his first season with the Twins, López was an All-Star for the first time while also finishing seventh in the Cy Young race.

So far, López is off to a strong start, with a 2.84 ERA across his first two starts of the year. He has some intriguing pieces behind him in Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, but ultimately there's no debating it anymore—López is the ace of this staff.

Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal, LHP

Through two starts this season, Skubal has struck out 15 batters. That's done little to quell the hype that was around him entering the campaign, after he posted a 3.3 WAR over just 15 starts a season ago.

Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Colt Keith and Spencer Torkelson are all exciting young position players, but if healthy, Skubal will likely be at the forefront of the AL Cy Young race. To return to the postseason for the first time since 2014, the Tigers need that type of season from Skubal at the top of their rotation.

Cleveland Guardians: José Ramírez, 3B

2020 AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber is out for the season as he prepares for Tommy John surgery, but Ramírez would have been the pick for the Guardians regardless.

On three occasions, Ramírez has been an AL MVP finalist, including finishing as runner-up for the Junior Circuit's top honor in 2020. Finally getting over the hump and winning the award would establish Ramírez as someone who is on a path to Cooperstown and might help the offensively challenged Guardians to sneak into the postseason.

Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert Jr., CF

How bad are the White Sox? Robert is on the injured list with a Grade 2 hip flexor strain that could force him to miss close to two months, and he's still the obvious pick.

Who else would you go with? Former AL Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease was traded to the Padres during spring training. Oft-injured slugger Eloy Jiménez is also on the injured list with a strained adductor.

Maybe Garrett Crochet's strong start to the season is a sign he's going to have a breakout campaign. But the White Sox are really down bad, which is why Robert is the selection.

Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., SS

Witt led baseball with 11 triples a season ago, en route to finishing seventh in AL MVP voting. The Royals rewarded the face of their franchise with an 11-year, $288.8 million extension this past offseason, so he'll probably be the team MVP for the better part of the next decade.

Having already doubled five times this season, Witt looks not only like the best player on the Royals, but also like someone who is entering the conversation among the top position players in the AL.

AL West

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Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez, DH/LF

Jose Altuve has won an AL MVP, and it would be timely for Alex Bregman, who is in a contract year, to get over the hump and claim the honor. But Alvarez—who still doesn't seem to be feared quite as much as he should be, despite literally hitting a home run that won the World Series in 2022—is clearly the most dangerous player in Houston.

Alvarez is a DH who plays occasionally in left field, and the bias against those who aren't full-time position players may keep him from ever winning an MVP, like it did with David Ortiz. But Alvarez finished third in AL MVP voting in 2022, and even if he never wins the award, he's going to be in the mix quite a few times.

Texas Rangers: Corey Seager, SS

Seager is a two-time World Series MVP who finished third in NL MVP voting while with the Dodgers in 2016. He was also the runner-up for AL MVP voting a year ago, despite only appearing in 119 regular-season games.

The biggest question with Seager has always been his ability to remain on the field. If healthy for a full season, Seager will likely be at the top of the AL MVP discussion, along with Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and the next name on this list.

His double-play partner Marcus Semien—who has finished third in AL MVP voting on three separate occasions—also deserves a mention, though he seems to be better in odd years than even ones.

Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodríguez, CF

In two MLB seasons, Rodríguez has already won AL Rookie of the Year, made two All-Star teams and finished in the top 10 in AL MVP voting twice, including a fourth-place finish a year ago. It feels more like a matter of when, not if Rodríguez wins an MVP.

Certainly, he's going to be the MVP of the Mariners, and if they are able to edge out the Astros and Rangers for the AL West title, Rodríguez might jump to the top of the race as the best player in the Junior Circuit.

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout, CF

Who else was it going to be? Trout is a three-time AL MVP, and with Shohei Ohtani no longer in Anaheim, Trout is the only one left. Can he stay healthy enough over the course of a full season to win a fourth AL MVP? It's fair to be skeptical. But he's once again the undisputed best player on the Angels and already has four home runs.

It's possible that if the Angels are completely out of the playoff race when the July 30 trade deadline rolls around, Trout will finally seek a trade from the Angels to a contending team. Even if he were to be traded, a few months will be all Trout needs to be the best player for the Halos this season.

Oakland Athletics: Paul Blackburn

Blackburn was an All-Star in 2022 but really probably is more like a No. 4 starter on a good team. But congratulations, John Fisher, Blackburn hasn't allowed a run in two starts, so he—on what's essentially a Triple-A team—is the default winner here.

If Blackburn keeps this up, maybe he'll be lucky enough to be traded to a franchise that isn't going to spend the next three or four years playing in a minor league stadium.

Advanced statistics via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

   

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