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Ripple Effects of Stefon Diggs Trade on 2024 NFL Draft, WR Trade Market

Maurice Moton

Back in February, while at the Pro Bowl, Stefon Diggs expressed uncertainty about his future with the Buffalo Bills. On Wednesday, Buffalo made it crystal-clear that it needed to move on, trading him to the Houston Texans.

The Bills will receive a 2025 second-round pick in exchange for Diggs, a 2024 sixth-round pick and a 2025 fifth-rounder.

For the second time in his career, Diggs will go to a new team via trade. In 2020, the Bills acquired him from the Minnesota Vikings for multiple draft picks, including a first-rounder.

While Diggs' trade compensation has dropped four years later, he's still a perennial Pro Bowler whose departure and arrival will have major ripple effects.

We'll discuss the impact of the Diggs trade from leaguewide and team-oriented perspectives.

Texans Are Shaping Up as Win-Now AFC Powerhouse

Texans QB C.J. Stroud Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Before the Stefon Diggs trade, the Houston Texans had an eventful offseason, signing defensive end Danielle Hunter and acquiring running back Joe Mixon from the Cincinnati Bengals and then signing him to an extension.

On Wednesday, the Texans added a lead wide receiver in Diggs, who's earned Pro Bowl nods in four consecutive seasons, racking up at least 103 catches, 1,183 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in each of those terms.

In case you haven't figured it out, Houston is going all-in on a win-now approach while quarterback C.J. Stroud is on a rookie deal. Keep in mind that he's not eligible for an extension until after the 2025 season.

For this year and the next, Houston can afford to take big swings for costly veterans before it has to worry about Stroud's new contract.

In 2023, the Texans surprised most of the NFL world with a playoff appearance as the AFC South champions. Now, they look like a team that could challenge the AFC's elite teams for a spot in the Super Bowl.

Assuming Tank Dell makes a full recovery from season-ending ankle surgery, the Texans will have a strong trio of wide receivers with Diggs and Nico Collins also in featured roles.

With Stroud, the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year, throwing to a well-rounded group of wide receivers, Mixon could see light boxes in the run game to balance the Texans' offensive attack.

If so, Houston could field a top-10 scoring offense with an ascending defense that should be stingier than last year's 11th-ranked scoring unit, with Hunter, defensive lineman Denico Autry and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair joining the front seven.

In a year, the Texans have made strides from an NFL laughingstock to a powerhouse.

AFC East Is a Wide-Open Division

Bills QB Josh Allen (left) and Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (right) Megan Briggs/Getty Images

The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets aren't sad to see Stefon Diggs go elsewhere.

Once Diggs arrived in Buffalo, Josh Allen saw a significant spike in his passing production, and he became a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback.

One has to wonder if Allen can still throw for 4,200-plus yards and 29 or more touchdowns without his lead wide receiver from the previous four seasons.

While the New England Patriots are in rebuild mode under a new regime, the Miami Dolphins have a playoff-caliber squad, and Aaron Rodgers' return from a torn Achilles should boost the Jets' 2024 outlook.

Remember, Buffalo won the AFC East title every year Allen and Diggs played together between 2020 and 2023. In that stretch, the Bills fielded a top-nine passing attack annually as the key part of an offense that ranked sixth or higher in scoring and total yards every season.

Diggs missed just one game with the Bills, so Allen will need to adjust regardless of what the team does to fill a void at wide receiver, which brings us to possible additions this offseason.

Bills Likely to Draft Multiple Wide Receivers

Former Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

We don't need an NFL rocket scientist to tell us that the Buffalo Bills have likely moved wide receiver up on their priority list of draft needs after trading Stefon Diggs.

The Bills signed wideouts Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins in free agency, but they've been complementary role players at previous stops. Khalil Shakir made strides in his second season, catching 39 passes for 611 yards and two touchdowns, though he hasn't flashed star potential.

The Bills didn't acquire a pick in this year's draft in the transaction. Yet they have 10 draft selections, which is more than enough capital to add multiple receivers in April.

Buffalo will likely use pick 28 or 60 on a high-end wide receiver prospect. The club could target Washington product Jalen McMillan or Florida State product Keon Coleman at the end of the first round. Maybe the front office wants blazing speed and considers Texas product Xavier Worthy, who logged the fastest 40-yard time (4.21 seconds) at the NFL Scouting Combine.

In a deep wide receiver class, the Bills could land immediate contributors on Day 2 as well. Jermaine Burton out of Alabama and South Carolina product Xavier Legette could be viable options with the 60th pick.

Even if the Bills bundle picks to maneuver the draft order for other Day 2 wide receiver prospects like Texas product Adonai Mitchell, they'll likely add a high-upside Day 3 receiver, too.

Don't forget that the Minnesota Vikings took Diggs in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. The Bills may find a late-round gem.

Bills' Cap Situation Likely Prevents Them from Trading for Stefon Diggs' Replacement

Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs James Gilbert/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills will take on a little more than $31 million in dead money, which is a record number for a wide receiver in any season, per ESPN Stats & Info via ESPN's Alaina Getzenberg.

As of Wednesday, the Bills have about $4.4 million in cap space.

Though NFL teams often restructure contracts to create cap space, according to Over the Cap, Buffalo cannot recoup more than $5.5 million for any single player currently on its roster using this method to clear cap room.

Because of their limited cap space and contract flexibility for financial relief, the Bills probably won't dabble in the trade market for a high-end receiver to replace Diggs.

Cincinnati Bengals franchise-tagged wide receiver Tee Higgins and San Francisco 49ers wideout Brandon Aiyuk want new deals.

Unhappy with his contract situation, Higgins has requested a trade, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Aiyuk has expressed his desire for a deal on social media.

Bengals, 49ers May Be Better off Retaining Their Key Receivers

49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk Perry Knotts/Getty Images

Based on the trade compensation for Diggs, the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers may want to settle contract disputes with their wide receivers rather than deal them for draft capital.

Higgins and Aiyuk are several years younger than Diggs, but they aren't nearly as accomplished as the four-time Pro Bowler and 2020 first-team All-Pro.

Higgins and Aiyuk have zero Pro Bowl seasons combined, and the former is coming off a season with career lows in catches (42), receiving yards (656) and touchdown receptions (five).

Higgins dealt with an injury and played with a backup quarterback in Jake Browning for extended stretches this past season, but as the second-best wideout behind Ja'Marr Chase on the Bengals roster, his receiving numbers don't compare to Diggs' production over the previous four years.

Bengals head coach Zac Taylor spoke as if the team wants to retain Higgins, which is probably best for the club.

Aiyuk is an ascending wideout whose receiving numbers have looked better every year, though he clearly wants a pay raise higher than his current $14.1 million rate.

If a team acquires Aiyuk with the intent to extend him on a new deal, it will likely drop the draft compensation in a trade because of the cost following the transaction.

San Francisco may not receive premium 2024 draft capital because of Aiyuk's contract demands.

Unlike the Buffalo Bills, the 49ers can restructure multiple contracts to free up more than $40 million in cap space. The reigning NFC champions should run it back with their core offensive playmakers rather than trade their best receiver.

NFL cap space and player contract details are provided by Over the Cap.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.

   

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