On Wednesday, the Buffalo Bills traded No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs and a pair of late-round draft picks to the Houston Texans for a 2025 second-round selection. The deal gives budding star quarterback C.J. Stroud another proven receiving option to go with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown.
Diggs, a four-time Pro Bowler, becomes the latest marquee addition in an offseason that has already seen Houston add the likes of running back Joe Mixon, edge-rusher Danielle Hunter and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.
Houston, which made it to the divisional round of the playoffs last season, must now be considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Bills are still in that category as well, but parting with Josh Allen's top target of the past four seasons is a step in the wrong direction for the time being.
Bleacher Report's Maurice Moton already examined the immediate impact of Wednesday's trade. Here, we'll dive into how the new-look Texans, Bills and the rest of the NFL's top title contenders stack up based on factors like roster makeup, offseason player movement, recent results and divisional competition.
10. Dallas Cowboys
Don't fret if your favorite team isn't on this early-April list. Surprise contenders emerge every season, and a team that made a big offseason acquisition—like the Atlanta Falcons (quarterback Kirk Cousins) or Los Angeles Chargers (head coach Jim Harbaugh)—could easily take off just as Houston did in 2023.
The Dallas Cowboys haven't made many offseason moves, but consistency remains a strength of theirs. Dallas has won 12 games in each of the last three seasons, and as long as a team is in the dance, it has a chance.
While the Cowboys' roster might not be truly elite, it has Pro Bowl-caliber players at several important positions. That includes quarterback Dak Prescott, cornerback Trevon Diggs, receiver CeeDee Lamb, pass-rusher Micah Parsons, tight end Jake Ferguson and guard Zack Martin.
The roster hasn't gotten better in 2024, but the core is still strong. The Cowboys shouldn't face a ton of divisional competition, either, aside from the Philadelphia Eagles. The New York Giants and Washington Commanders were among the league's worst teams in 2023.
It's hard to rank the Cowboys any higher, though, because head coach Mike McCarthy hasn't gotten them past the divisional round and they face some potential distractions this season.
Prescott and Lamb are both entering the final years of their respective contracts, and McCarthy will likely land on the hot seat if the Cowboys stumble at all. The loss of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn could also result in an adjustment period on that side of the ball.
If things go poorly in 2024, the Cowboys could potentially implode. But if enough goes right for them, they could reach the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1995 season.
9. Buffalo Bills
Parting with Diggs is not addition by subtraction for the Buffalo Bills. While he was inconsistent last season, Josh Allen didn't become an upper-echelon quarterback until the Bills acquired Diggs in 2020.
However, Buffalo still has plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Allen is one of the league's top signal-callers, and he has a tremendous tight end duo in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Running back James Cook emerged as a major playmaker last season, and the free-agent addition of receiver Curtis Samuel was sneaky good as well.
With a strong 2024 receiver class incoming, the Bills have a chance to add a new No. 1 receiver in the draft. Buffalo snagged Texas wideout Adonai Mitchell with a late first-round pick in the B/R Scouting Department's latest mock draft.
While Buffalo did part with starting safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde this offseason, it returns most of a defense that ranked ninth overall and fourth in points allowed last season.
If the Bills can land a starting-caliber perimeter receiver in the draft and continue tweaking their offensive philosophy—they relied less on Diggs down the stretch under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady—they shouldn't take a massive step backward. However, a high level of AFC East competition leaves Buffalo with a thin margin for error. The Miami Dolphins emerged as a viable threat last season, and the New York Jets should have a healthy Aaron Rodgers under center in 2024.
The Bills also have yet to prove that they can get past teams like the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs in the postseason. But if Allen can avoid the questionable decision-making and ball-security issues that plagued him early in 2023, the Bills should stay in the AFC mix.
8. Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers became an NFC playoff force in Jordan Love's first season as Aaron Rodgers' full-time replacement. They came within a few plays of knocking off the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round, and they completely dominated Dallas in the Wild Card Round with the league's youngest roster.
Green Bay has made a few intriguing moves this offseason, including replacing running back Aaron Jones with Josh Jacobs and adding ascending safety Xavier McKinney. However, the loss of underrated starting guard Jon Runyan will be felt.
The Packers' ability to contend for a Super Bowl will largely hinge on Love's continued improvement (or lack thereof) in his second season under center. The 25-year-old was playing like a top-five signal-caller by the end of 2023, so the rest of the conference will be on notice if he's only scratching the surface of his potential.
Head coach Matt LaFleur has proven that he can at least put the Packers in position for a postseason run. In five seasons under LaFleur, Green Bay has won three playoff games and missed the postseason only once.
However, Green Bay will have to contend with teams like San Francisco in the conference and with the emerging Detroit Lions in the NFC North. The Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings could also create havoc within the division if they can hit on quarterbacks in this month's draft.
The Packers have a strong young corps and have just opened their playoff window. If Love can fully enter the ranks of the elite this season, anything less than an appearance in the NFC title game might be viewed as a disappointment.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals are a bit of a wild card because everything hinges on the health of quarterback Joe Burrow. The 2020 first overall pick has finished two of his four seasons on injured reserve and led the Bengals to two AFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl in the other two years.
The trade request of franchise-tagged wideout Tee Higgins is another potential obstacle for Cincinnati.
On paper, the Bengals' roster is fairly solid. The defense did take a significant step back in 2023, finishing the year ranked 31st overall. However, Cincinnati still won nine games despite not having a healthy Burrow for most of the year.
Two big questions hang over the Bengals heading into the 2024 campaign. Is head coach Zac Taylor good enough to deliver a championship? He had a questionable approach to Cincinnati's offense early last season when Burrow was dealing with a substantial calf injury. Burrow clearly wasn't himself, and the Bengals never made an attempt to adjust offensively.
We'll probably learn a lot more about Taylor after offensive coordinator Brian Callahan departed to become the Tennessee Titans' head coach.
Also, can the Bengals survive a brutal AFC North that sent three teams to the playoffs in 2023? The Baltimore Ravens were the AFC's No. 1 seed last season, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns made the playoffs as well.
Cleveland is expected to have a healthy Deshaun Watson under center in 2024, and Pittsburgh added future Hall of Famer Russell Wilson and former Chicago Bears starting quarterback Justin Fields in the offseason.
In Taylor's four seasons at the helm, Cincinnati has won the division twice and finished fourth two times. The Bengals have shown that they can get to the big game, but the AFC's No. 1 seed and a last-place finish would be equally unsurprising results for Cincinnati.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles' Super Bowl chances will depend on which version of them we see in 2024.
Philadelphia looked like a perennial title contender for all of 2022 and for most of the 2023 season before a late collapse made it look like a fraud. The Eagles lost five of their last six regular-season games before getting blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round last year.
The good news is that Philly made several key additions this offseason. Linebacker Devin White, pass-rusher Bryce Huff and defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson should help the defense perform more like it did in 2022 than in 2023, which the Eagles finished ranked 30th in points allowed and 26th overall. They also added standout running back Saquon Barkley, who should take a lot of pressure off quarterback Jalen Hurts.
If the Eagles do return to form, they should be right back in the Super Bowl chase. They still have a supremely talented roster even though Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox both retired this offseason, and their biggest divisional competition will come from the Cowboys.
However, the Eagles will once again be dealing with a pair of coordinator changes after the hiring of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. We'll have to see what impact Moore has on the offense, but Fangio's scheme should be very similar to the one Jonathan Gannon used during the Eagles' 2022 run to the Super Bowl.
The X-factor here is whether head coach Nick Sirianni lands on the hot seat at any point in 2024. He did help deliver a Super Bowl berth and has yet to miss the postseason, but Philly has suffered two lopsided losses in the Wild Card Round during his three seasons.
Plus, Sirianni's potential scapegoats—former offensive coordinator Brian Johnson and former defensive coordinator Sean Desai—are now gone.
5. Houston Texans
Is it too soon to consider the Texans a top-five NFL team? No, it is not.
Houston made a stunning run to an AFC South title in 2023 thanks to the elite play of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and the stellar leadership of rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans. Houston made a few other key additions in 2023, but Stroud and Ryans largely fueled its seven-win jump from 2022 to 2023.
Ryans immediately changed Houston's culture, and Stroud was Offensive Rookie of the Year during a season in which Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua finished with a rookie-record 1,486 receiving yards.
On paper, the Texans are now even better on both sides of the ball. Stroud has another playmaker at his disposal in Diggs, while Ryans has more fuel for a defense that finished 11th in points allowed last season. The signing of Hunter is every bit as important as the Diggs trade, if not more so.
"Now teams, they've gotta choose who they're gonna double-team," reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. said, per Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston.
Much like the Packers, the Texans could be scary this season if their young quarterback makes a jump. Additionally, the AFC South should be a very winnable division.
The Indianapolis Colts won nine games in 2023, but second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson is coming off a season-ending shoulder injury. The Jacksonville Jaguars regressed last season, and the Titans are in the early stages of a rebuild.
Is Houston better than AFC-leading Baltimore and Kansas City? That remains to be seen. But the Texans are well-positioned to challenge the best the conference has to offer.
4. Baltimore Ravens
As long as Lamar Jackson remains healthy, the Baltimore Ravens should challenge for the Lombardi Trophy in 2024.
Jackson returned to MVP form last season, while the rest of the Ravens' offense took off under new coordinator Todd Monken. Meanwhile, the Ravens defense allowed a league-low 16.5 points per game, which resulted in an NFL-best 13-4 record and Jackson's first trip to the AFC Championship Game.
Baltimore should again be an elite team on both sides of the ball, though slight regression is possible. The Ravens lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who became the Seattle Seahawks' new head coach, and he had a major impact over the past two years.
In 2021, the year before Macdonald took over, Baltimore ranked just 25th in total defense and 19th in points allowed. The Ravens jumped to ninth and third, respectively, in 2022, and they were sixth in total defense last season.
The Ravens also parted with some key contributors this offseason, including edge-rusher Jadeveon Clowney, safety Geno Stone, offensive tackle Morgan Moses and linebacker Patrick Queen. However, they also added star running back Derrick Henry, who should partner with Jackson to form the league's most lethal backfield.
Baltimore cannot be considered the favorite in the AFC since Kansas City still reigns supreme until proven otherwise. Additionally, a brutal AFC North will be a huge obstacle between the Ravens and the No. 1 seed.
Three of the Ravens' four regular-season losses last year came against divisional foes. If the rest of the AFC North can stay healthy, Baltimore might not even finish first in the division this season.
Still, the Ravens have all the necessary ingredients for another deep playoff run, including Jackson, Henry, a talent-laden defense and a proven head coach in John Harbaugh. Barring a critical injury, the Ravens should be dangerous playoff threats at worst.
If Baltimore does fall off, it likely won't be by much.
3. Detroit Lions
Like the Packers, the Detroit Lions came dangerously close to knocking off the 49ers in the postseason. Like the Ravens, Detroit was just a few plays away from reaching the Super Bowl.
What's different about Detroit is that it kept most of its crucial pieces in place this offseason and actively addressed its biggest weaknesses.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn are both back, as is head coach Dan Campbell. Detroit's best offensive playmakers are all returning as well, including Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
An offense that ranked third overall in 2023 should be just as potent this year, and a defense that ranked 19th will be better. Detroit added cornerback Carlton Davis, pass-rusher Marcus Davenport, defensive tackle D.J. Reader and cornerback Amik Robertson to a unit that finished last season ranked third in rushing yards per attempt allowed.
With an improved pass rush and better secondary, the Lions defense should be above-average at a minimum. Thanks to the culture change Campbell sparked over the last three years, the Lions can now believe in themselves and a roster that has few obvious holes.
Reaching the franchise's first Super Bowl won't be easy, though. The 49ers are a yearly conference threat, and the Packers will be firmly in the NFC North mix. The Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings still need to find their quarterbacks of the future, but neither divisional foe can be considered a pushover. Chicago beat Detroit convincingly in Week 14 last season and has two top-10 picks in this year's draft.
Still, the Lions have improved every single year under Campbell. It should surprise exactly no one to see Detroit being the talk of Super Bowl week next February.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Is Brock Purdy elite? Perhaps not, but the San Francisco 49ers quarterback emerged as a Pro Bowl talent in 2023 and guided his team to the Super Bowl.
Under head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers have regularly featured one of the league's most complete rosters. Now, they have a signal-caller around whom they can build.
The rest of the Niners roster remains elite. Offensive stars like Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Purdy are all under contract. Aiyuk is a potential trade candidate, but San Francisco has been publicly disinterested in following Buffalo's lead in that regard.
Defensively, the 49ers might be even better after the additions of edge-rusher Leonard Floyd, linebacker De'Vondre Campbell, defensive tackle Maliek Collins and defensive lineman Yetur Gross-Matos.
San Francisco should be just as good as it was last season when it finished third in both points scored and points allowed. The 49ers also led the Kansas City Chiefs for most of Super Bowl LVIII before losing in overtime.
Shanahan has yet to prove he can win the big one, but there's no doubt that he can put San Francisco on the doorstep. The 49ers don't face a serious threat of regression in 2024, and their biggest potential obstacles will be the injury bug and other contenders that improve.
In the NFC West, the Los Angeles Rams appear to be San Francisco's only real threat. The Arizona Cardinals are rebuilding, and the Seahawks regressed last season after being a wild-card team in 2022.
Consistency matters, and San Francisco has reached four NFC title games and two Super Bowls over the past five seasons. The 49ers remain the team to beat in their conference.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs don't top our list just because they've won the last two Super Bowls. They're here because as long as they have key pieces like quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, defensive tackle Chris Jones and head coach Andy Reid, they're going to challenge for the title every year.
In six seasons with Mahomes as the full-time starter, Kansas City has been to six AFC Championship Games, reached four Super Bowls and hoisted three Lombardi Trophies. There's no reason to believe that the Chiefs will suddenly fall off.
However, the Chiefs did trade standout corner L'Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans this offseason, and there's currently some uncertainty surrounding second-year receiver Rashee Rice. The NFL is "monitoring" an ongoing investigation into Rice's involvement in a high-speed Dallas car crash, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Depending on how that investigation unfolds, Rice could face league discipline.
Beyond that, Kansas City's core very much remains the same. And whenever there has been a reason to anticipate a drop-off—like when the Chiefs traded away No. 1 receiver Tyreek Hill two years ago—they've just continued rolling.
The Chiefs will face tough challengers like Baltimore, Houston and Cincinnati in the AFC, but they're the clear favorites in an AFC West filled with rebuilding or reloading teams. They can pretty much be penciled into the postseason already.
Anyone who discounts Mahomes in Co. in the playoffs will be doing so at their own peril. Kansas City has been the league's most steady contender since Mahomes took over the starting job. Another franchise may eventually wrest that title away from the Chiefs, but it isn't likely to happen in 2024.
Read 0 Comments
Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation