There are two types of baseball fans: Those who acknowledge they love to overreact after the first week of the season, and those who lie.

The key in trying to draw conclusions with such a small sample size of meaningful games is to not think anything that's the opposite of what you believed before the season. If a player who you predicted would have a breakout starts the year off hot, run with it. If said player tapers off by July, no one will remember your first-week victory lap anyway.

To that end, here are some early lineup changes that teams need to make, ones that would have been wise before the season and only look smarter after the first week of the 2024 campaign.

Baltimore Orioles: Promote Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday hit .311 with two home runs and six RBI in 45 Grapefruit League at-bats for the Baltimore Orioles this spring. It was mildly surprising that he didn't crack the Opening Day roster, but Orioles general manager Mike Elias cited how little experience Holliday has against left-handed pitching even at the Triple-A level, and also that he's adjusting to playing second base.

The reality is that while it's harder to manipulate service time than it once was, it's not impossible.

Holliday was the odds-on favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year when it looked like he would open the season in the majors. If he finishes in the top two in voting for the award, he gains a year of service time toward free agency regardless of how much time he spends at the MLB level in 2024.

However, if Holliday finishes, let's say, third, then the Orioles will have successfully gained an extra year of team control on the 2022 No. 1 overall pick. With Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford both on the Opening Day roster for the Texas Rangers, a month in Triple-A to open the season might be all it takes for Holliday not to finish in the top two in AL Rookie of the Year voting.

That's what it should be assumed is going on here, because even if Holliday is only 20 years old, he's more than ready for MLB. He homered in his first at-bat of the season for Triple-A Norfolk and added another home run in the team's fourth game of the season.

If this is just about winning the most games possible, the Orioles should promote Holliday and let him play second base every day, even if it means he gets to free agency a year earlier. They are, after all, in a World Series window.

Chicago Cubs: Use Christopher Morel at DH More Often

If you were on the Christopher Morel hypetrain before the season, he's delivered early on at the plate, clubbing two home runs in the first four games for the Chicago Cubs and narrowly missing a grand slam on Opening Day.

With his offensive prowess acknowledged, it should be pointed out that Morel continues to be without a clear long-term home defensively. The experiment with him at third base isn't off to a great start, as he already has two errors, minus-two defensive runs saved and negative-three outs above average.

Defensive metrics should be taken with a grain of salt this early in the season, but that's a pretty discouraging first impression at the hot corner. Imagine if the Cubs had signed Matt Chapman—who already has two defensive runs saved with the Giants—to play third base and just used Morel primarily at DH, while also mixing him in at first base?

Considering he homered 26 times and drove in 70 runs a year ago, his bat is good enough to justify giving the bulk of the DH at-bats to.

In real life, the Cubs are going to give Morel a chance to improve at third base. But there would be no shame in pulling the plug on him at third and having him DH if the results continue to be poor defensively, particularly if they are able to acquire a better third base option than Nick Madrigal at some point this summer.

New York Yankees: Slowly Move Anthony Volpe Up in the Lineup

Juan Soto and Oswaldo Cabrera have gotten a majority of the attention, but second-year shortstop Anthony Volpe's red-hot start at the plate is one of the reasons that the New York Yankees swept the Astros to open the season and have looked like a legitimate contender.

In his rookie year, Volpe won a Gold Glove Award at shortstop with 15 defensive runs saved, but he struggled at the plate, slashing .209/.283/.383 with just a .666 OPS.

But in the early going of the 2024 season, the 2019 first-round pick has not only looked competent at the plate, but has also had one of the best starts of any hitter in the league, recording nine hits in his first 22 at-bats.

Right now, Volpe should probably be consistently hitting sixth in the lineup. He won't stay this hot, but if he has a breakout season at the plate, there's going to become a point where he might be better fit to hit fifth than either Giancarlo Stanton or Anthony Rizzo, if neither of the former stars is able to heat up after slow starts.

Philadelphia Phillies: Option Johan Rojas to Triple-A Lehigh Valley

Johan Rojas might be the most gifted defensive outfielder in baseball, but his bat isn't major league ready, and the 23-year-old would benefit from some seasoning at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, where there will be a lot less pressure than with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Rojas actually hit .302 in his first 59 MLB games a year ago, but there was evidence that it wasn't sustainable. Rojas had a .410 batting average on balls in play, which is drastically higher than the league average, which is considered to be about .300.

Come the postseason, Rojas was exposed at the plate, striking out 15 times and recording just four hits in 45 at-bats. He worked hard this offseason to improve his patience at the plate and become an effective bunter, but he struggled in spring training and has yet to hit a ball out of the infield during the regular season.

The Phillies aren't going to reverse course and send Rojas to Triple-A right this second, but if he's hitting around .100 at the end of April, they may not have a choice. Even with an elite glove, there has to be some offensive value provided from Rojas. And thus far, his speed has been largely negated by the fact that he isn't getting on base.

With Brandon Marsh, Cristian Pache and Whit Merrifield, the Phillies have enough to tide themselves over for a while between center and left field. That trio—along with a Triple-A option like Weston Wilson or Kody Clemens—could get them to a point where either Rojas has made necessary adjustments to be able to hit at the MLB level, or president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has acquired another starting-caliber outfielder.

Los Angeles Angels: DFA Anthony Rendon

This would be the ultimate addition-by-subtraction move.

Anthony Rendon—who admitted during spring training that baseball has "never been a top priority" in his life—doesn't have a single hit during his first 19 at-bats of the season.

It's a sad turn of events for someone who was once one of the better hitters in the sport, but he's made it clear in recent years that he's just collecting a paycheck, rather than being a player who is hell-bent on revitalizing his career.

If Rendon is no longer productive during the rare occasions when he's healthy, then why keep him around? It's not about letting Rendon win, it's about trying to change the culture under new manager Ron Washington. Do you want someone who views playing the game as a chore to be part of that?

Don't get it twisted: Rendon isn't going to give back money. But there's a strong case to be made for the Angels just cutting their losses and designating Rendon for assignment, where he'll easily clear waivers.

The Halos will still be on the hook for the $76 million Rendon is owed between the 2025 and 2026 seasons, but they can begin to move forward without the most disinterested player in the game.

Miami Marlins: Sign a Veteran Free Agent

2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcántara is out for the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Eury Pérez will undergo the procedure soon. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett are all also on the injured list. It's possible that the Miami Marlins just won't have enough pitching to be competitive in 2024.

But even if they did, the lack of talent in the lineup is alarming, particularly when one of the few established pieces they have, Josh Bell, is off to a slow start. Consider this: Even with Jorge Soler hitting 36 home runs a year ago, the Marlins finished 29th in runs scored at 666. Soler departed in the offseason to join the Giants on a lucrative three-year deal.

Sure, the Marlins brought in former AL batting champ Tim Anderson hoping for a bounce-back season. But this is a team that needed to add multiple bats in addition to Soler, not lose him and make a minor move or two in the offseason.

Instead, the Marlins have Bryan De La Cruz—a replacement-level player—and Avisaíl García, who struggled to produce and stay healthy during his first two years in Miami, taking up significant at-bats.

Meanwhile, Tommy Pham is a free agent. He's 36 but helped a young Diamondbacks team go on a Cinderella run to the World Series a season ago. Also now 36 is Brandon Belt, who was limited to 103 games a year ago with the Blue Jays but posted a 136 OPS+ (100 is the league average) when on the field.

Both would probably be relatively cheap to sign at this point, and while they wouldn't make the Marlins a World Series contender, they would each be upgrades over De La Cruz or García offensively.

Are the Marlins capable of spending with the Dodgers and Yankees? Probably not. But responding to a rare playoff appearance by spending less than $100 million on your payroll makes it look like Miami's ownership group isn't particularly interested in winning.

Oakland Athletics: Recall Esteury Ruiz

After just four games, the Oakland Athletics optioned Esteury Ruiz to Triple-A Las Vegas. General manager David Forst gave the following explanation for the decision.

"We talked about Esty a couple of times during the spring," Forst said, according to MLB.com's Martin Gallegos. "Where he fits in the lineup, on this team, and the importance of him playing every day. Seeing through the first four games, that wasn't going to happen here."

Forst continued on his explanation of the decision to send Ruiz down to Triple-A.

"Cutting down on strikeouts and getting on base are things that we talked to him about all last season," Forst added. "He did make some good adjustments this spring. We saw an improvement in his exit velocity and some better at-bats. But the reality is, to use his skills, he needs to get on base. … He needs to be able to do that on a consistent basis. I'm hoping with him leading off every day in Triple-A, it's not a long stay for him down there."

Based on Forst's comments, you would think Ruiz was hitless through the first four games. In reality, he had three hits in his first eight at-bats, including a triple. The idea that there just aren't enough at-bats for him to play as much as he needs to is laughable.

That excuse might fly for the Braves or Dodgers, not a team that won a grand total of 50 games a season ago. This is a 25-year-old who stole an AL-leading 67 bases in 2023. The A's should be promoting him as one of the faces of their team, not sending him to the minors.

It would have been one thing if, citing these concerns, the A's sent Ruiz to Triple-A to open the season. But you can't point to strikeouts as a reason for a demotion when a player has struck out one time in four games. Nor can you talk about not getting on base enough when he had three hits in seven at-bats.

Ruiz can't be recalled now for 10 days, unless it's as an injury replacement. But whatever the actual reason is for this bizarre handling of one of their few promising players, the A's need to correct this as soon as possible.

Colorado Rockies: Drop Kris Bryant in Batting Order

The Colorado Rockies signing Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million deal in March 2022 didn't make a ton of sense at the time. It makes even less sense in April 2024.

After injuries limited him to 122 of a possible 324 games during his first two seasons in Colorado, Bryant has gotten off to an extremely slow start in 2024, with two hits and 10 strikeouts in his first 20 at-bats. It may be time to readjust expectations for the production Bryant is going to provide.

This isn't a situation like Rendon where he's just checked out, but for whatever reason, the former NL MVP just isn't the same player anymore. Perhaps there will be some sort of resurgence; Bryant is still only 32 and has the benefit of playing his home games at Coors Field.

But until that happens, Bryant probably can't hit second or fourth in Bud Black's lineup as he has early on. Right now, Bryant is probably more equipped to be hitting sixth or seventh.

Houston Astros: Move José Abreu Further Down Lineup

José Abreu had a tremendous nine-season run with the White Sox, which peaked when he won the AL MVP during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. But it increasingly looks like the Astros paid for past production when they gave Abreu a three-year, $58.5 million deal in advance of the 2023 campaign.

That perhaps was predictable given that he was entering his age-36 season when he signed with Houston. Nonetheless, Abreu posted a career-low .680 OPS in 2023 and is off to a very slow start in 2024 with just two hits in his first 19 at-bats.

Over the first nine years of his career, Abreu crushed 243 home runs and drove in 863 runs, so there's going to be some leeway given to him by new manager Joe Espada. For the time being, Abreu will probably continue hitting fifth or sixth.

At the same time, Espada was the bench coach during Abreu's first season in Houston, so it's not as though he's new to the Astros. This is a team in a World Series window, and if Abreu doesn't get going soon, he's going to be hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup. It's becoming increasingly difficult to justify hitting him above Chas McCormick and Jeremy Peña.

Given that Abreu posted just a .654 OPS against right-handed pitching a year ago, he may be getting to the point of his career where he's a very expensive platoon player who sees the bulk of his at-bats against left-handed pitching and hits near the bottom of the lineup when facing righties.

Statistics via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.