Only four teams remain in the quest to crown the 2024 men's college basketball national champion: Alabama, Connecticut, North Carolina State and Purdue.
Just like we all expected, right?
That's only half tongue-in-cheek. We did expect both UConn and Purdue to be here, as before the dance began, they were No. 1 and No. 2 in our 68-team power rankings.
But, umm, Alabama and NC State weren't exactly Nos. 3 and 4.
In fact, we had the Wolfpack at No. 47, behind both James Madison and McNeese State and only one spot ahead of a Virginia team that nobody outside Charlottesville actually wanted to watch in the tournament.
However, it does legitimately feel like they could win this thing, considering the way they've played over the past three weeks.
Based on a combination of how all four of the remaining teams looked during the regular season, how they look right now and, to some extent, how we think the standings would shake out if these Final Four teams played a round-robin tournament to determine a champion, we've ranked them from bottom to top.
Basically, if we had to re-seed the field today, what would it look like?
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (18), Sweet 16 (16), Elite Eight (7)
The Road Behind: As has been the case all season, Alabama's road to success has been paved largely along the perimeter, and at a frenetic pace. The Crimson Tide had an off night from distance in the uptempo rock fight with Grand Canyon in the second round, but they went 13-of-23 against Charleston, 11-of-26 against North Carolina and 16-of-36 against Clemson. What else is new from the highest scoring team in the nation, though?
The Road Ahead: Alabama already took down the weakest of the No. 1 seeds, but can it topple the best one? That's what it's going to take just to reach the national championship game, as the Crimson Tide will run up against mighty UConn in the Final Four. If they can stay hot from distance, though, anything's possible. And at least they should be used to late games in that time zone at this point, going through Spokane and Los Angeles to get to Phoenix.
Reason to Buy: When this offense gets into a groove, it is like watching poetry in motion. Mark Sears is the poet laureate, if you will, but that damage can come from anywhere. Latrell Wrightsell Jr. hit five triples in the opener. Rylan Griffin had five against UNC. Jarin Stevenson went for five against Clemson. Grant Nelson was the do-it-all star in the win over the Tar Heels. And we haven't even mentioned rebounding machine Nick Pringle or combo guard Aaron Estrada yet. Alabama has a lot of guys who can put up a lot of points.
Reason to Sell: Defense wins championships, but bad defenses usually get bounced in the Final Four. Miami last year. UCLA in 2021. VCU in 2011. All teams that entered the tournament well outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency before making a surprising run to a national semifinal, but running out of gas at that point. And Alabama's defense this season just might be the worst of that bunch. It's hard to imagine Connecticut will have much difficulty scoring Saturday.
Will Win it All If...: The offense stays blistering hot. That Elite Eight game against Clemson showed how ugly things can get if Alabama isn't shooting well, falling behind by 13 points in the first half. It also demonstrated how high the ceiling is when this team catches fire. In 2016 and 2018, Villanova at least had good defense to fall back on, but we have seen teams simply ride a hot wave of three-point shooting to a title. Perhaps Alabama can do the same.
3. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (47), Sweet 16 (14), Elite Eight (6)
The Road Behind: Look too far in the rearview mirror and it gets ugly, as NC State entered the ACC tournament having lost 10 of its last 14 games. But the Wolfpack flipped the script, winning five games in five days to secure a bid before rolling through Texas Tech, Oakland, Marquette and Duke in its improbable run to the Final Four. Incredibly, the only team thus far in the dance that had a legitimate shot at beating NC State was the No. 14 seed Golden Grizzlies, who took that game to overtime. The Wolfpack won the other three by a combined margin of 34 points.
The Road Ahead: No one in the tournament has been able to slow down NC State's big man DJ Burns Jr., but that's about to change in a big way against Purdue and Zach Edey. Maybe Burns will still be able to make some of his silky smooth post moves on offense, but probably only until Edey does his thing and gets Burns—whose status as an overnight celebrity isn't exactly because of his defensive prowess—into foul trouble. Hardly anyone is going to give the Wolfpack a chance in that game, but that's nothing new, right?
Reason to Buy: This is the team of destiny. You can always throw out the year-to-date statistics at this point in the tournament, but that's especially true with NC State, which is a completely different team from the one that couldn't even put together a .500 record in ACC play. The only other team to ever win five games in five days during conference tournament season was the 2011 Kemba Walker squad, which ultimately extended that winning streak to 11 with a national championship. All I'm saying is if you're buying Purdue winning it all in part because it lost to a No. 16 seed last year, you've got to extend the Wolfpack that same courtesy.
Reason to Sell: Hate to be "that guy" about the team 90 percent of people are now rooting for, but how much of this run is just dumb luck in terms of three-point defense? State's last seven opponents shot a combined 50-of-195 (25.6 percent) from three-point range, compared to its previous nine shooting 40.6 percent. And while all of the talk will be about Burns vs. Edey, Purdue can make it rain threes better than anyone in the country. Alabama and Connecticut also both stroke it well from distance, should the Wolfpack survive the Boilermakers.
Will Win it All If...: The DJ Duo (Burns and Horne) turn Phoenix into their personal playground while opponents continue to struggle from distance.
2. Purdue Boilermakers
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (2), Sweet 16 (2), Elite Eight (2)
The Road Behind: The first two wins over Grambling State and Utah State were the type of relentless blowouts you might expect to see from a team that had to hear all year that it was just going to crash and burn in March anyway. The Sweet 16 game against Gonzaga was closer, but the Boilermakers eventually imposed their will on the Zags to win by a dozen. And in the Elite Eight against Tennessee, Dalton Knecht's 37 points weren't enough for the Volunteers to overcome Zach Edey's 40.
The Road Ahead: When the field was whittled to 16 teams, it looked like Purdue was going to avoid losing to a double-digit seed for a fourth consecutive year. But lo and behold, the lone double-digit seed to survive the first weekend of the tournament also survived the second one to set up a showdown with Purdue. Had this game been played a month ago, the expectation would have been a Boilermakers win by, I don't know, 20 points? More? But at this point, anything seems possible. We really should end up with a Purdue-UConn national championship game, though.
Reason to Buy: Edey's supporting cast is so much better than it was last year. Even in a game against Tennessee where it felt like the big man did everything, Fletcher Loyer had a big 14 points, Braden Smith had a quiet nine points, seven rebounds and seven assists and Lance Jones delivered the three-point dagger from which the Volunteers could not recover. The guards would've been the reason Purdue blew that game in last year's tournament, but they just might be the reason this team wins its first national championship.
Reason to Sell: Turnover margin. It's not a problem of Purdue being turnover prone, but it just doesn't force turnovers and has lost the turnover-margin battle in all four tournament games thus far. Granted, being minus-11 in turnovers doesn't seem like much to worry about when you're plus-76 in rebounds, but it's worth mentioning. It's something that Michigan State used to struggle with on an annual basis in recent years, and it often played a part in Sparty's tournament demise.
Will Win it All If...: They continue to feed Edey, who is 64 points away from matching Glen Rice's record of 184 points in a single tournament. On both ends of the floor, Purdue had a horrid day along the perimeter against Tennessee, and yet it rode its cash cow to victory. Not saying he needs to go for 40 points and 16 rebounds in each remaining game, but we all know he could.
1. Connecticut Huskies
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (1), Sweet 16 (1), Elite Eight (1)
The Road Behind: Looking at what UConn has done to this point in the tournament is like surveying the aftermath of a bull getting into a china shop. The Huskies didn't just beat Stetson, Northwestern, San Diego State and Illinois. They eviscerated those poor unfortunate souls, leading by at least 30 at some point in each of those four blowout victories. Even those of us who fully expected UConn to win this tournament are still a bit blown away by how effortless it has been.
The Road Ahead: Up next is a showdown with Alabama, which—at least purely from an adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency point of view—has an M.O. pretty similar to the Illinois team Connecticut just smoked: fantastic offense, mediocre defense. The Crimson Tide are much more perimeter-oriented than the Illini and far more interested in pushing the pace on offense. But we'll see if they can fare any better against Donovan Clingan than Illinois did—or than Alabama did earlier this season in allowing 35 points to Purdue's Zach Edey.
Reason to Buy: No team is unbeatable, but UConn feels about as bulletproof as it gets, with its deep supply of impact players and its ability to win in so many different ways. The Huskies were already the favorite heading into the tournament, and now they are hotter than the sun. If they can carry that momentum through the seven-day gap between games played, we're going to be having a serious conversation about college basketball dynasties next Monday.
Reason to Sell: Though they've led by 30 in each game, they didn't exactly storm out of the gates in the two games in Boston. With less than two minutes remaining in the first half against San Diego State, UConn was only up by four. At the same juncture two nights later, the Huskies were tied with Illinois. Might not be able to get away with waiting until 18 minutes into the game to step on the gas in the Final Four.
Will Win it All If...: They keep their eyes on the prize and play their game. There are four very talented teams left in this tournament, but no one as consistently dominant as these Huskies. They should be just two games away from repeating as champs.
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