So, how's your 2024 men's NCAA tournament bracket looking?
The East and Midwest regions might have turned out alright, with the top-seeded Connecticut Huskies and Purdue Boilermakers emerging from those quadrants. But the Alabama Crimson Tide and North Carolina State Wolfpack winning their regions was quite the unexpected turn of events.
How will the final weekend go, though?
Will UConn win its sixth national championship in 25 years? Will NC State win its third title but first since 1983? Or will either Alabama or Purdue become the 38th program to win at least one men's college basketball national championship?
As far as what to expect from the final three games in Phoenix, your guess is as good as ours.
But let's make it as knowledgeable a guess as possible, shall we?
To help you best prepare for the final weekend of this season, we've put together a comprehensive breakdown of the four teams still standing.
We'll take a look at how they got here, how they can keep winning, the biggest storylines for each team, the brightest stars, the underrated guys to watch out for and, of course, predictions.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 25-11, No. 4 seed in West Region
Path to Final Four: 109-96 vs. No. 13 Charleston, 72-61 vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon, 89-87 vs. No. 1 North Carolina, 89-82 vs. No. 6 Clemson
Biggest Strengths: Highest-scoring offense in the nation at 90.6 PPG, playing at a breakneck pace, taking and making a ton of threes; solid on the offensive glass
Biggest Weaknesses: Defense ranks 104th in adjusted efficiency; had a well-established reputation for losing to quality opponents prior to upsetting UNC in the Sweet 16
How They Got Here
Mostly by running and gunning.
In the second round against Grand Canyon, there were a lot of quick bricks in each direction. For the most part, though, it has been high-octane and high-efficiency offense, per usual.
Alabama has scored at least 89 points in three of its four tournament games, which actually decreased its year-to-date scoring average by a fraction of a point. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 89 points in 20 of their 36 games, going 19-1 in those contests.
The big question with Alabama is whether the offense will be enough to make up for the defense.
Dating back to Feb. 7, the Crimson Tide are averaging 91.9 points scored, but 90.4 points allowed. And aside from the clank-fest against GCU, they have allowed at least 82 points in each tournament game. But, thus far, it hasn't buried them, and maybe they can shoot their way to two more victories.
Biggest Regular-Season 'What If?'
What if Alabama's defense hadn't been repeatedly embarrassed down the stretch?
Though the Crimson Tide have given up quite a few points in this tournament, they do look much more engaged on that end of the floor than they did late in the year.
Between the 117-95 loss at Kentucky, the 105-87 loss at Florida and the 102-88 loss to the Gators in the SEC tournament, it became abundantly clear that business as usual wasn't going to cut it.
Alabama spent basically the entire season acting like it could just score its way out of any jam, but getting blown out like that seemingly every time they left Tuscaloosa was the proverbial glass of cold water in the face that it needed to at least give a darn from time to time on that end of the floor.
Granted, some of that defense was just UNC's RJ Davis and Clemson's Chase Hunter going cold at the wrong time, but Alabama did block 13 shots between those two games, making life miserable for both Armando Bacot and PJ Hall in the paint.
Connecticut Huskies
Record: 35-3, No. 1 seed in East Region
Path to Final Four: 91-52 over No. 16 Stetson, 75-58 over No. 9 Northwestern, 82-52 over No. 5 San Diego State, 77-52 over No. 3 Illinois
Biggest Strengths: Shoots 16.1 percent better on two-pointers (59.1) than it allows (43.0); excellent rebounding team; No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency; No. 4 in adjusted defensive efficiency
Biggest Weaknesses: Barely top-250 in turnover rate on defense; least efficient shooter (Tristen Newton) leads the team in field-goal attempts
How They Got Here
In a word: dominantly.
Connecticut made quick work of both Stetson and Northwestern in Brooklyn, effectively winning both of those games before halftime. And while it wasn't until a little later in the games against SDSU and Illinois that the Huskies turned on the afterburners, they eventually led by at least 30 in each of those contests, too.
Donovan Clingan had some hit-or-miss stretches during the regular season—especially in that first month after he came back from the foot injury—but he has become the consistent wrecking ball in the paint that we expected him to be back when he was in the top 10 of basically all of the preseason NPOY rankings.
Because of that, a UConn team that was already ridiculously good heading into the tournament appears to have somehow saved its best for last.
Biggest Regular-Season 'What If?'
What if they hadn't dealt with a couple of injuries?
Star freshman Stephon Castle lasted all of two games before suffering a knee injury that sidelined him for several weeks. Right as Castle was starting to round back into form, the Huskies lost Clingan to a foot injury for a couple of weeks.
Had they remained healthy, maybe they would have carried an undefeated record well into February.
But would they have become the team they are today if not for those absences?
Both Solomon Ball and Samson Johnson gained a lot of experience and a lot of confidence during those stretches when they were forced into the starting lineup, and now they (along with veteran Hassan Diarra) have become key reserves for this juggernaut.
(Ball hasn't played much thus far in the tournament, but it wouldn't be all that surprising if he came off the bench for some big contributions in the final weekend of the dance, a la Grayson Allen for Duke in 2015.)
North Carolina State Wolfpack
Record: 26-14, No. 11 seed in South Region
Path to Final Four: 80-67 vs. No. 6 Texas Tech, 79-73 (OT) vs. No. 14 Oakland, 67-58 vs. No. 2 Marquette, 76-64 vs. No. 4 Duke
Biggest Strengths: Commits turnovers at one of the lowest rates in the nation; won nine consecutive do-or-die games in 19 days and is dripping with confidence
Biggest Weaknesses: Even after nine consecutive wins, NC State has mediocre numbers across the board; struggled to defend the three-point arc until that luck turned three weeks ago
How They Got Here
Against all odds.
Three weeks ago, this team couldn't beat anyone and didn't even seem to enjoy playing together. When the Wolfpack were down one at halftime of their ACC tournament opener against Louisville, I joked that every Louisville game in the ACC tournament should be like a "pink slip" WWE match in which the losing coach gets fired, not so subtly insinuating that Kevin Keatts' job might have been hanging in the balance heading into those next 20 minutes.
And the Wolfpack haven't lost since.
Duke could've knocked them out twice, but failed. Virginia should've ended their season in the ACC semifinals, but also failed, in laughable fashion. Oakland led late and had a chance to win that second-round game at the regulation buzzer, but NC State has been dodging more bullets than Mr. Anderson in The Matrix—which would've been a much less dated movie reference the last time this team actually had a realistic shot at winning a national championship.
They've only really played seven guys throughout this entire run, but this tight-knit group has found its sweet spot.
Biggest Regular-Season 'What If?'
What if they had stuck with Dennis Parker Jr., and he hadn't gotten sick late in the year?
The freshman forward played quite a bit for the first two-plus months of the season, even starting 12 games as the Wolfpack had to work for a long time to figure out a rotation that worked for them.
Starting in late January, though, Parker's minutes started to vanish. Then he missed the ACC tournament altogether with an illness and has yet to play in the NCAA tournament.
When Parker's minutes waned, Mohamed Diarra started playing a whole lot more and a whole lot better, averaging a double-double during this nine-game winning streak. Ben Middlebrooks has also been playing with more urgency as of late, especially on defense.
By no means do I intend to suggest that Parker was the cause of NC State's struggles late in the regular season, but it could just be one of those things where a smaller rotation and more well-defined roles/playing time sparked something.
Purdue Boilermakers
Record: 33-4, No. 1 seed in Midwest Region
Path to Final Four: 78-50 vs. No. 16 Grambling State, 106-67 vs. No. 8 Utah State, 80-68 vs. No. 5 Gonzaga, 72-66 vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Biggest Strengths: Shoots 40.6 percent from three-point range; assists on 65.8 percent of made field goals; has Zach Edey
Biggest Weaknesses: Forces turnovers at one of the lowest rates in the nation; sometimes doesn't get enough from the non-Edey portion of the roster; has a reputation for losing to double-digit seeds
How They Got Here
On the broad shoulders of their 7'4" star.
Edey has recorded a double-double in 19 of his last 21 games, going for at least 23 points and 14 rebounds in each game in the tournament.
There were times in the first two months of the season when Purdue was clearly taking it easy on Edey, saving him for the long haul so he could dominate in March like this—as he played almost every second of that Elite Eight win over Tennessee to rack up 40 points and 16 rebounds.
But Purdue has been more than just its foul-drawing, double-double-compiling, soon-to-be two-time National Player of the Year.
The Boilermakers rode Edey harder than usual against the Volunteers because not much else was working, but point guard Braden Smith is sitting at 39 points and 38 assists against eight turnovers after four games. Fletcher Loyer is averaging about 12 points and three assists. Lance Jones has had some big three-point buckets.
If it was just Edey running the show, Purdue would be the defending champion, not UConn. But it's because he has better/improved players around him this year that they are still standing and thriving.
Biggest Regular-Season 'What If?'
What if Purdue hadn't lost to Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament?
For the Boilermakers' first three losses, there was a bit of "ah, well, what can you do?" whatever-ness to them. Northwestern shot 50 percent from three and won in overtime. Nebraska caught fire and shot 60.9 percent from deep. Ohio State was playing with a new life after firing Chris Holtmann. All kinds of unusual circumstances resulting in road losses in a tough league.
But losing to Wisconsin? Which had been kind of terrible over the six weeks leading up to that game? When the Badgers only shot 21.9 percent from three?
That felt like a wake-up call that Purdue might have needed heading into the tournament.
Sure, the Boilermakers already had the "don't repeat last year's nightmare" motivation in their corner. However, losing to an ice-cold Wisconsin on the same day that UConn won the Big East tournament and created some serious separation as the favorite to win it all; that might have given Purdue just a little more of a chip on its shoulder.
Biggest Storylines
Alabama's Biggest Storyline: Respect.
The Crimson Tide were legitimately good enough to win it all in both 2021 and 2023. They weren't quite this potent on offense, but they were better on defense by leaps and bounds, earning the No. 5 overall seed in 2021 and the No. 1 overall seed last year.
But when you think about the best programs in men's college basketball over the past four years, does Alabama even spring to mind? It should, but I don't think it does, in part because it had never been to a Final Four before now. And the world would instantly stop thinking of Alabama as just a "football school" if it wins this whole shebang.
Connecticut's Biggest Storyline: Repeat.
Surely you know the drill by now: Connecticut is looking to become the first back-to-back national champion since the 2006-07 Florida Gators. And just in getting this far into the tournament, the Huskies have done better than any other reigning champion has since Florida repeated.
Dan Hurley and Co. aren't interested in that consolation prize, though. They want to do what had become seemingly impossible in recent years and actually repeat.
NC State's Biggest Storyline: Revelation.
The day before the ACC tournament started, NC State was 17-14 overall and ranked 80th in the NET. The Wolfpack had lost 10 of 14 games and looked like a Final Four team about as much as Dick Vitale looks like a hair model.
But they flipped a switch and became this ridiculously likable underdog, vanquishing Marquette's Shaka Smart and the loathed Duke Blue Devils along the way. While we more or less expected two of these four teams to be here, NC State has been a reminder of why we call it March Madness.
Purdue's Biggest Storyline: Redemption.
Virginia's loss to UMBC walked so Purdue's loss to Fairleigh Dickinson could run. At this point, the fact that Purdue lost to a No. 16 seed almost 13 months ago is mostly irrelevant. But you know that to some extent, that motivation is still driving them to finish this fight with what would be the first national championship in program history.
Final Four's Biggest Storyline: Favorites or Upsets?
If UConn and Purdue take care of business Saturday night, the championship game on Monday could be an all-timer, pitting two exceptionally good teams against one another. But NC State becoming the first ever double-digit seed to win it all? That'd be pretty neat, too. (At least for a minute, until a championship won by a team that isn't even 'supposed' to be here only helps prove the point of the select few who want to expand the tournament.)
Most Outstanding Player Candidates
Alabama's MOP Candidate: Mark Sears
Tournament Stats: 24.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, 44.7% 3PT
It wasn't until late in the regular season that more and more people finally started to realize how valuable Sears had been all year. He scores 20 in virtually every game, almost always with a few assists, rebounds and steals.
The only unusual thing about his stat line in the chaotic second-round game against Grand Canyon—26 points, 12 rebounds, six assists, three steals—was that he did more rebounding than usual in a game where boards were aplenty on both ends of the floor. Sears has quietly been every bit as good as Frank Mason and Jalen Brunson were during their NPOY campaigns.
Connecticut's MOP Candidate: Donovan Clingan
Tournament Stats: 15.8 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 3.5 BPG, 2.0 APG, 1.3 SPG
It could also be Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer or another really good Husky leading the way in this final weekend of the tournament, but Clingan has been the star thus far. He had 14 points, 14 rebounds and eight blocks in the second-round win over Northwestern, and he was the one leading UConn's outrageous 30-0 run against Illinois, both with his dunks on one end and with his blocks on the other.
A "Cling Kong" vs. Zach Edey battle in the national championship would be quite the clash of the titans.
NC State's MOP Candidate: DJ Burns Jr.
Tournament Stats: 18.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.5 APG
DJ Horne might end up scoring more points, but Burns has been the Wolfpack's ever-present figure, both in the middle of their offense and as the fan-favorite face at the forefront of this run that will be remembered for years to come.
Heck, if they win this thing, we might end up talking about Burns for the next 13 years like we've talked about Kemba Walker for the past 13—especially if he goes off for 40 points, 15 rebounds and 15 assists over the course of these final two games.
Purdue's MOP Candidate: Zach Edey
Tournament Stats: 30.0 PPG, 16.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 1.8 APG
In these next few days, it will finally become official that Zach Edey is the first back-to-back National Player of the Year in more than four decades. Those votes were held before the NCAA tournament began and don't even account for how absurdly dominant he has been over the past two weeks.
Edey went for 30 and 21 in the opener against Grambling State before a 40-and-16 extravaganza against a Tennessee team that had one of the best defenses in the country. Can't wait to see what he has left up his sleeve for Phoenix.
Underrated Players to Watch
Alabama's Underrated Player to Watch: Jarin Stevenson
Tournament Stats: 7.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 43.8% 3PT
Probably not quite so underrated after he went off for a career-high 19 points in the comeback win over Clemson in the Elite Eight, but this 6'11" reserve freshman could be critical for the Crimson Tide.
Both Stevenson and Grant Nelson have three-point range and shot-blocking ability, which should help in the quest to neutralize Donovan Clingan in the Final Four and perhaps Zach Edey in the national championship.
Connecticut's Underrated Player to Watch: Hassan Diarra
Tournament Stats: 7.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.3 APG
Diarra isn't much of a scoring presence, but this veteran reserve might have been the most valuable glue guy in the country this season.
He's a solid on-ball defender, a good distributor, a respectable shooter when he does call his own number and just generally a versatile backcourt player who can give any of Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer or Stephon Castle a few minutes off here and there, keeping everyone fresh.
NC State's Underrated Player to Watch: Ben Middlebrooks
Tournament Stats: 8.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG
Frontcourt depth is going to be crucial in the Wolfpack's quest to deal with Edey, and Middlebrooks is their best hope of maybe even getting Purdue's big man into some foul trouble, as he averages 0.85 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt.
He exploded for a career-high 21 points in the opening round against Texas Tech and has been a key source of rebounds off the bench.
Purdue's Underrated Player to Watch: Mason Gillis
Tournament Stats: 3.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 40% 3PT
Like Diarra at UConn, Gillis is a glue guy extraordinaire. He gets rebounds and dimes and plays hard-nosed defense for his 20ish minutes per game on the floor.
And while he doesn't shoot all that often, he is a lethal three-point weapon at 47.5 percent for the season, seeming to get at least a couple of wide-open looks in every game by lulling the opposition into a false sense of security that he isn't a serious threat. But he most definitely is.
Alabama's 3-Step Blueprint to a Title
If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and Alabama will win its first national championship in basketball.
1. Make it rain
For the year, Alabama has averaged 11.2 made three-pointers per game and has been almost unbeatable when reaching double digits in that department. The Crimson Tide have won 19 of those 21 games, with the exceptions coming when Clemson made better than 50 percent of its three-point attempts and when Edey countered their many triples with 35 points in Canada.
2. Do more on defense
Just making triples isn't going to be enough to knock out Connecticut, nor was it enough to beat Purdue four months ago. They'll need to dig in their heels on defense for a change, compared to allowing 90.4 points over their last 14 games.
The wins over North Carolina and Clemson were impressive, but were also largely a product of RJ Davis going ice cold and a usually great free-throw shooting Tigers team missing 50 percent of its freebies. Can't bank on that luck.
3. Make opponents uncomfortable with pace
While UConn isn't quite Virginia-like with its tempo, the Huskies very much prefer a slower pace, with fewer than 70 possessions in 28 of their last 29 games. If the Crimson Tide can speed UConn up, maybe it'll start making more mistakes and neglecting to capitalize on what should be a major advantage in the paint.
It might also be Alabama's best bet for neutralizing Donovan Clingan by just wearing him out in an up-and-down marathon of sprints.
Connecticut's 3-Step Blueprint to a Title
If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and Connecticut will become the first back-to-back national champion in nearly two decades.
1. Let the big dog eat
At least in the Final Four game against Alabama, leaning heavily upon Clingan seems like the way to go, as UConn should have a massive advantage in the paint. It doesn't always have to be via entry passes, though. It can be in the form of table scraps with Clingan cleaning up on the offensive glass against a Crimson Tide team that struggles in that department.
But a key part of that will be controlling the pace and making sure Clingan is situated on the low block before letting Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban or Tristen Newton fire up threes.
2. Share the sugar
This one is mostly for Newton, as UConn is a perfect 26-0 this season when he tallies at least five assists and 0-2 when he takes at least 18 shots.
There will be some temptation to try to beat Sears and Alabama at its own fast-paced game, but slow, steady and assist-heavy wins the race, both in the Final Four and in the title game against either remaining option that doesn't have a great perimeter defense.
3. Continue to dominate with defense
UConn has the most efficient offense in the country, but goodness gracious has this defense been good as of late. Dating back to the Big East championship against Marquette, the Huskies have held five consecutive opponents to 58 points or better.
It's highly unlikely they'll be able to do that to Alabama's high-octane offense, but even holding the Crimson Tide below 80 would almost certainly be enough for the win. And then defense will be crucial in the likely championship matchup with Purdue.
North Carolina State's 3-Step Blueprint to a Title
If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and NC State will become the most improbable national champion in men's college basketball history.
1. Let DJ Burns Jr. cook
Clemson fans were wearing chef's hats in support of Ian Schieffelin throughout the Tigers' tournament run, but the real Bobby Flay left in the dancing kitchen is Burns. In the Elite Eight against Duke, NC State was just clearing out half of the floor and letting Burns work in isolation, knowing he would find the open man along the perimeter if the Blue Devils ever threw a double at him.
Going one-on-one with Edey will be quite different from doing so with Ryan Young, but it might still work.
2. Get the other DJ spinning, too
DJ Horne has averaged 17.1 points over his last eight games and is capable of plenty more.
There was a 20-game stretch earlier this season in which he scored at least 21 points 11 times. Horne also went for 29 in the ACC championship victory over North Carolina. If he gets hot from distance, NC State becomes even more dangerous.
3. Stay out of foul trouble
This might be the toughest part of the blueprint with whistle magnet Edey coming up next, but the Wolfpack have no depth, basically only playing seven guys thus far in the tournament.
Ben Middlebrooks commits a lot of fouls (6.8 per 40 minutes) while on the floor, and Burns hasn't exactly been immune to them (3.9 per 40 minutes). And if it comes to a point where those two can't even bother trying to defend Edey (and/or Clingan in the championship) in the paint, things could get ugly in a hurry.
Purdue's 3-Step Blueprint to a Title
If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and Purdue will become the second team to win it all the year after losing to a No. 16 seed.
1. Own the paint/glass
It's mostly Edey's doing, but Purdue's average rebound margin is plus-10.7 per game for the year and much closer to plus-20 per game thus far in the tournament. Even without accounting for trying to stop Edey from scoring, it's just really hard to beat a team that gets back about 40 percent of its own misses while keeping you from getting hardly any second-chance opportunities.
2. Move the ball
Purdue ranks second in the nation in both three-point percentage (40.6) and assist rate (65.8), constantly surrounding Edey with at least three, sometimes four really good shooters.
As long as the ball doesn't stick in one place for too long, the Boilermakers can almost always get either a good look at a three-pointer or a one-on-one situation for Edey which is usually going to result in points, a drawn foul or both.
3. Keep playing with fire
Making a Final Four is an incredible achievement, but Purdue was almost too celebratory after its win over Tennessee. I also saw several "regardless of what happens in Phoenix, Matt Painter and Purdue have redeemed themselves for the FDU disaster" types of articles in the past 48 hours.
Newsflash: This fight isn't finished. But it might be for the Boilermakers if they start resting on their laurels and allow a more motivated team to steal their thunder. If they can dial it back in during this long break between games, they can destroy NC State and topple UConn.
Predictions
No. 11 North Carolina State vs. No. 1 Purdue (Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS)
Of the 12 games played in the past six Final Fours, seven were decided by double digits.
And, unfortunately for both the long-suffering NC State fans and the throngs who just jumped on this bandwagon in the past couple of weeks, it's likely that this game will keep that trend going.
It's possible the Wolfpack will shock us again. Maybe DJ Horne and Jayden Taylor come out on fire from the perimeter while Purdue has a rough shooting night in Phoenix. Or perhaps this officiating crew calls a pair of early ticky-tack fouls against Edey and completely alters the trajectory of this game within the first 10 minutes.
In all likelihood, though, this is where the incredible run ends for NC State, with DJ Burns Jr. unable to get anything going in the paint against Edey, and with the Wolfpack's three-point defense regressing to the mean against an excellent perimeter attack.
Prediction: Purdue 85, NC State 68
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Connecticut (Saturday at approx. 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS)
Of the two games on Saturday, this is the one more likely to result in an upset, as Alabama has shown repeatedly throughout the season that it can catch fire against anyone.
But can the Crimson Tide do anything to stifle UConn's attack?
Because for as potent as Alabama can be on offense, the Huskies are even a little bit more efficient. And these defenses could not be much more disparate, with UConn ranking fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to Alabama at No. 104.
Maybe Alabama does what 16 of UConn's last 19 opponents could not do and averages better than one point per possession on offense. The problem is the Huskies might average around 1.3 points per possession when they have the ball.
Prediction: Connecticut 91, Alabama 80
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 1 Connecticut (Monday at 9:20 p.m. ET on TBS)
Connecticut has been my pick to win it all since early January, and that's not about to change now.
But this should be an awesome game if it happens.
Can UConn neutralize Edey with Clingan and Samson Johnson?
Will Connecticut's many-pronged attack take advantage of a Purdue defense that rarely forces turnovers?
Could the Huskies' grad transfer from Rutgers (Cam Spencer) be the star?
Or might it be Purdue's grad transfer from Southern Illinois (Lance Jones) making the difference?
We'll dive more heavily into this matchup if the favorites take care of business Saturday, but it could be an instant classic.
Prediction: Connecticut 69, Purdue 67
Statistics via Sports Reference and KenPom.com unless otherwise noted.
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