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The 7 Most Plausible 2024 NFL Draft-Day Trades

Kristopher Knox

The 2024 NFL draft is less than a month away, and much of the Round 1 picture remains unclear. The likelihood of multiple first-round trades only further adds to the uncertainty.

We've already seen one Round 1 trade this offseason, as the Minnesota Vikings acquired the 23rd overall pick from the Houston Texans. More are sure to be on the horizon.

Last offseason, we saw six draft-day trades during Round 1, in addition to some deals that were done pre-draft. We saw nine deals during the first round of the 2022 draft.

While we don't know exactly which trades will unfold late next month, we can make some educated guesses. Here, we'll dive into seven hypothetical draft-day trades that feel entirely plausible based on factors such as team needs, roster makeup, positional value and any relevant recent buzz.

For variety's sake, we won't dissect multiple trade offers for the same asset. Instead, we'll examine seven trades that could all occur in the same hypothetical Round 1.

Patriots Sour on QB3, Allow Giants to Trade Up

North Carolina QB prospect Drake Maye Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Giants Get: 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 3)

Patriots Get: 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 6), 2024 Round 2 Pick (No. 47), 2025 Round 2 Pick

The widespread perception is that the Chicago Bears are destined to take USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick. The Washington Commanders and New England Patriots are then likely to take signal-callers with the No. 2 and No. 3 selections, respectively.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Commanders and Patriots are "apprehensive to give up those picks."

However, New England could be more fluid with its selection. North Carolina's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels are strong possibilities for the Commanders and Patriots, but there's no guarantee that New England's preferred quarterback will be on the board at No. 3.

If the Patriots don't view Daniels and Maye—or possibly Michigan's J.J. McCarthy—as equals, Washington's pick could make a New England trade entirely plausible. The New York Giants could provide the Pats with the perfect trade-down opportunity.

According to Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated, the Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders were "asking around" about the possibility of trading up for a quarterback during the scouting combine.

In this scenario, the Giants are more willing to trust QB3 and make a move to get Daniel Jones' long-term replacement. The Patriots, meanwhile, add value while still staying in position to land an elite prospect.

Vikings Move Up for a Quarterback, Strike Deal with Chargers

Michigan QB prospect J.J. McCarthy Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Vikings Get: 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 5), 2024 Round 4 Pick (No. 110), 2024 Round 5 Pick (No. 140)

Chargers Get: 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 11), 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 23)

If quarterbacks do go first, second and third overall, the Vikings could become desperate to move up for their signal-caller. Minnesota is reportedly interested in making a move for J.J. McCarthy.

"In talking to NFL personnel while on the road at pro days this week, the feeling is still that the Vikings will be aggressive in trading up to the No. 4 or No. 5 spot to land the Michigan quarterback," ESPN's Matt Miller wrote on March 23.

The Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers, who own the fourth and fifth overall picks, respectively, are sensible trade partners for the Vikings. But Arizona may find it difficult to pass on the opportunity to snag Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison is the top-ranked overall prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's big board and is perhaps the "safest" prospect in the entire draft.

"Harrison is a slam-dunk prospect," Derrik Klassen of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "He is a twitched-up athlete with polished route-running ability and elite ball skills. It's so easy to see how his game translates right away."

If the Cardinals choose to pair Harrison with quarterback Kyler Murray, the Chargers would be in a great position to add additional pieces for Jim Harbaugh's rebuild via a trade.

Bears Trade Back as Colts Go Up for a Receiver

LSU WR prospect Malik Nabers John Korduner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Colts Get: 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 9)

Bears Get: 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 15), 2024 Round 3 Pick (No. 82), 2024 Round 4 Pick (No. 117), 2025 Round 3 Pick

Harrison might be the first pass-catcher off the board, but he probably won't be the only one to go early on Day 1.

The B/R Scouting Department has three receivers—Harrison, LSU's Malik Nabers and Washington's Rome Odunze—ranked inside its top 10 prospects. Georgia tight end Brock Bowers is also ranked No. 2 overall behind only Harrison.

It feels unlikely that all four of the top pass-catchers will fall out of the top 10, even if four quarterbacks are in that range. The Patriots and Giants should be interested in receivers if they don't take signal-callers. The Atlanta Falcons could also seek another playmaker to put around Kirk Cousins.

The New York Jets are in win-now mode and could look to give Aaron Rodgers another target at No. 10.

Despite trading for Keenan Allen this offseason, the Bears could also consider a receiver with the ninth overall pick—unless they trade the selection for more capital. Chicago, after all, was willing to flip last year's No. 1 overall pick for that reason.

In this scenario, Chicago decides Allen, D.J. Moore and tight end Cole Kmet are a good enough core for its rookie quarterback. The Indianapolis Colts, however, decide to get aggressive in bolstering the supporting cast of second-year QB Anthony Richardson.

Indianapolis has a serviceable receiving corps headlined by Michael Pittman Jr., However, he was the only Colt to top 800 receiving yards last season, and the team didn't get a ton out of the tight end position.

Here, the Colts make the jump from No. 15 to No. 9 to grab a pass-catcher before the Jets do. The Bears, who own just two selections outside of Round 1, add more capital in the middle rounds.

Raiders Trade Up for a QB While Chargers Continue Moving Back

Washington QB prospect Michael Penix Jr. Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Raiders Get: 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 11)

Chargers Get: 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 13), 2024 Round 4 Pick (No. 112), 2025 Round 3 Pick

A strong pro day—including a 4.53-second 40-yard dash—has fans buzzing about Michael Penix Jr. and may have cemented the Washington quarterback as a first-round pick. And with an early run on quarterbacks likely, he may not be a late first-round selection.

Penix still carries some questions about a significant injury history—one that involves a pair of ACL tears—but his athleticism and arm talent are strong.

"His live arm, aggressiveness and moments of progression passing give him a shot to stick in the NFL," Klassen wrote.

As previously noted, the Raiders have shown interest in moving up for a quarterback. If they can't get into the top five to land one, they might have to consider jumping the Denver Broncos to land Penix.

Denver jettisoned Russell Wilson this offseason and currently has a quarterback room of Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci.

The idea that Las Vegas favors Penix over Oregon quarterback Bo Nix enough to move up two spots is entirely plausible. It would also be feasible for the Chargers to make a second trade back in Round 1 to add another middle-round pick to their draft haul.

Unless L.A. is entirely sold on a specific prospect in this scenario, it wouldn't be giving up a lot by trading back, knowing that Las Vegas would target a position that the Chargers don't need to fill.

Dolphins Add Day 2 Capital as Lions Refuse to Wait

Alabama CB prospect Kool-Aid McKinstry, Ryan Kang/Getty Images

Lions Get: 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 21)

Dolphins Get: 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 29), 2024 Round 3 Pick (No. 73)

The Detroit Lions have opened their Super Bowl window and could get aggressive to address their biggest positions of need in Round 1.

Receiver, cornerback and defensive tackle are all logical targets for Detroit, and an early run at one of those positions could have the front office looking to move up.

The 2024 cornerback class, for example, has some depth but could see a run between picks No. 14 (New Orleans Saints) and No. 22 (Philadelphia Eagles). The Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers are also teams that could target cornerbacks.

In this scenario, we see a couple of the top CBs—such as Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell, Alabama's Terrion Arnold and/or Kool-Aid McKinstry—off the board by the time the Miami Dolphins are on the clock at No. 21.

The Lions decide to strike a deal with Miami to jump the Eagles and secure the top remaining cornerback before Philly can.

Similarly, Detroit might want to jump the Eagles or Chargers for a defensive tackle or perhaps move past the Chargers or Dallas Cowboys for a receiver—if L.A. does indeed make the aforementioned trade with Minnesota.

It would be an aggressive but sensible move for the Lions, and it would be logical for the Dolphins too. This year's class has a deep second tier, and Miami doesn't currently own selections in the third or fourth rounds.

Ravens Move Out of Round 1, Allow Panthers Back In

Florida State WR prospect Keon Coleman David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Panthers Get: 2024 Round 1 Pick (No. 30), 2024 Round 7 Pick (No. 250)

Ravens Get: 2024 Round 2 Pick (No. 33), 2024 Round 7 Pick (No. 240), 2025 Round 3 Pick

By the time the Baltimore Ravens are on the clock at No. 30, we'll be deep into that wide second tier of draft talent.

According to the B/R Scouting Department's board, there isn't a massive talent gap between the 31st-ranked prospect (Iowa CB Cooper DeJean, 7.5 grade) and the 87th-ranked prospect (Kansas edge Austin Booker, 7.0 grade).

Baltimore doesn't have a ton of glaring needs and could be inclined to move down a few spots to add future draft capital—as the Texans did when dealing the 23rd pick to Minnesota.

"The Houston Texans took note and said, 'Let's get a free future second-rounder and still land the same caliber of prospect this year,'" Brent Sobleski of the B/R Scouting Department posted on X after the Texans-Vikings trade.

Here, the Ravens find a plausible trade partner in the Carolina Panthers, who don't have a first-round pick because of last year's trade to secure Bryce Young. While they do have the top selection in Round 2, that pick doesn't come with the fifth-year option.

If a prospect Carolina covets—say, a receiver like Florida State's Keon Coleman or Texas' Xavier Worthy—is available at the bottom of Round 1, it could move up strictly to secure that fifth-year option.

We saw a similar move in 2022 when the Jaguars traded up from No. 33 to take linebacker Devin Lloyd at No. 27.

Baltimore would get the added bonus of having an entire day to weigh up selection or trade options with the 33rd pick.

49ers Send Brandon Aiyuk to the Chargers

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Chargers Get: WR Brandon Aiyuk

49ers Get: 2024 Round 2 Pick (No. 37), 2024 Round 6 (No. 181)

For now, the San Francisco 49ers have put the kibosh on the idea of trading wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk.

"[General manager] John Lynch said the 49ers are actively talking with Brandon Aiyuk and there has been no trade discussions," Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area posted on X. "All those reports are not accurate, Lynch said. He said the team would be OK with Aiyuk playing on the fifth-year option."

However, a lot could change between now and the draft—or on draft day itself.

Remember, the Tennessee Titans traded wideout A.J. Brown just two offseasons ago before immediately using the 18th overall pick acquired from Philadelphia on receiver Treylon Burks.

The 49ers may not find the exact same situation, but if they're high on a receiver such as Coleman, Worthy or Washington's Jalen McMillan, and he happens to be available at No. 31, they might flip the switch on an Aiyuk trade.

San Francisco is already paying Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, and Brock Purdy will be extension-eligible next offseason. Financially, replacing Aiyuk with a receiver on a rookie contract would be logical.

The Chargers would be a plausible trade partner, especially if they pass on a receiver in Round 1. They recently parted with Allen and Mike Williams and could use a young dynamic receiver to pair with quarterback Justin Herbert. L.A. would get that in Aiyuk, while the 49ers could pick up a quality second-round pick.

An Aiyuk trade might not seem likely right now—at least, if you take the 49ers' public stance at face value—but one happening on draft day is entirely plausible.

Draft order information via Tankathon.

   

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