Risk is inherent to every facet of the NFL. Every week, there's a risk that teams won't perform well and will suffer defeat as a result. On every play, there's a risk that a player will get injured or disaster will strike in the form of a big loss or turnover.

Just because teams aren't playing doesn't mean the risk goes away. Every April, teams take a risk (sometimes a massive one) every time they select a player in the NFL draft. And before that, teams roll the dice every time they sign a player in free agency to more than a one-year "prove it" deal.

For some players, the risk is in the form of a player's advancing age. For others, it is injury history. Or the risk of overpaying a player either for production that has not yet come or a massive season that will not be repeated.

Some risky signings pay off big. And some of the players we are about to discuss will go on to live up to the lofty contract they just signed. But for each of these players, there's also a real possibility that production won't meet paycheck—and that the teams who inked those big deals will develop a hefty case of buyer's remorse as the 2024 season rolls on.

QB Kirk Cousins: 4 Years, $180 Million

On some level, it's understandable why the Atlanta Falcons gave quarterback Kirk Cousins the richest contract in all of free agency this year. There are two types of teams in the NFL—teams that have franchise quarterbacks, and those who do not. Clubs in the latter group will do just about anything to join the former.

And to be clear, while speaking to reporters, Falcons team owner Arthur Blank said that he believes that is exactly what the Falcons have accomplished in signing Cousins.

"We think very highly of Kirk, which I think is evidenced by the contract," Blank said. "We needed significantly better play at that position, and I think Kirk will give us that opportunity. He's had a lot of great years in the NFL and is playing really well of late, so we're excited to have him."

The question here isn't whether Cousins makes the Falcons a better team. It's whether he makes them good enough to justify $45 million per season and $100 million in guarantees.

To be fair, Cousins is a good quarterback—per TruMedia, since entering the NFL, Cousins is seventh in the NFL in touchdown passes (270), ninth in completion percentage (66.9), 11th in passer rating (98.2), 14th in passing yards per game (263.14), 15th in yards per attempt (7.6) and 17th in touchdown-to-interception ratio (2.5) among quarterbacks with 250 or more pass attempts.

But while Cousins may be good, he isn't great—the 35-year-old has struggled in high-pressure situations, winning just one playoff game in five tries and going 19-36 in 4 p.m. ET and prime-time games.

Does Cousins make the Falcons better? Yes.

Does he make Atlanta a Super Bowl contender? No.

EDGE Brian Burns: Five Years, $141 Million

The trade that brought edge-rusher Brian Burns from Carolina to New York is awfully hard to find fault with—getting a highly regarded pass-rusher in the prime of his career (and a fifth-round pick) for a second-rounder and two Day 3 selections is excellent value.

But the five-year, $141 million contract that the New York Giants gave Burns could be another matter.

To be clear, many analysts (including Kevin Patra of NFL.com) saw this move as an absolute smash for the G-Men.

"Turning 26 next month, Burns can win with speed and power," he said. "He discombobulates backfields and requires attention from the offense. The combination of Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence will put offensive lines in a pickle. Someone could be coming free every snap. Even in what was a down 2023 by his standards, Burns generated eight sacks. For his career, Burns has earned 46 sacks and 59 tackles for loss. If the NFL is built around quarterbacks, those who can disrupt the passer are extremely valuable, and the Giants snagged a pass-disruptor without sacrificing a first-round pick."

If Burns lives up to his potential, Patra may well be right. Burns has already been named to a pair of Pro Bowls and logged 12.5 sacks as recently as two years ago.

But Burns is now the second-highest-paid edge-rusher in the league in terms of average annual salary. He makes more per season than T.J. Watt of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns. His cap hit will spike to almost $30 million in 2025.

And that 12.5-sack 2022 season is the only time Burns has hit double digits.

WR Calvin Ridley: 4 Years, $92 Million

The Tennessee Titans were one of the NFL's most aggressive teams in free agency, and the centerpiece of their spending spree was the four-year, $92 million deal the team handed to wide receiver Calvin Ridley—a deal that includes $50 million in guarantees.

While speaking to ESPN's Kevin Clark, new Titans head coach Brian Callahan said he plans to use the 29-year-old Ridley in a similar role as Ja'Marr Chase when Callahan was the offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals.

"He's got great quickness," Callahan said of Ridley. "He's got great speed. He can run all the different routes. You saw some of that in Jacksonville. He can win outside. He can win inside. He's got a lot of different things he can do well."

That Ridley is talented is undeniable—he caught 76 passes for 1,016 yards and eight scores a year ago in his lone year with the Jaguars and posted a 90/1,374/9 line with the Atlanta Falcons back in 2020.

But Ridley missed most of the 2021 season while dealing with mental health issues and sat out the entire 2022 campaign due to a gambling suspension. Ridley may well have elite potential, but he doesn't have an elite wide receiver's resume.

The Titans are paying him as though he does—his $23 million average annual salary ranks ninth among all wide receivers and ahead of the likes of Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Keenan Allen of the Los Angeles Chargers and Amari Cooper of the Cleveland Browns.

Unless Ridley makes a Chase-esque impact in Nashville, it won't take long for this deal to look like an overpay.

DL Leonard Williams: 3 Years, $64.5 Million

Given that the Seattle Seahawks dealt a second-rounder in this year's draft as part of a package to obtain defensive lineman Leonard Williams from the New York Giants last year, it's not surprising that the team made a concerted effort to retain the 29-year-old.

After signing a three-year deal to remain in the Pacific Northwest, Williams told reporters that he's glad to be able to remain in Seattle.

"I loved the fans here—the 12s really go crazy," Williams said. "I love this area, I love being back with some familiar faces, and I'm also just excited about the trajectory of the team. I feel like we're on the right path and we've got all the right things going, and I'm glad to be a part of that for the next few years."

The sixth overall pick by the New York Jets in 2015, Williams is a very good player. He's stout against the run and can collapse the pocket up the middle. He made the Pro Bowl with the Jets in 2016 and logged a career-high 11.5 sacks with the Giants in 2020.

But there's also a reason Williams is on his third team. That 2020 season was the only time that Williams has surpassed seven sacks in a season. That was also the only year that Williams had at least a dozen tackles for loss.

Williams is a solid player. But he's not a game-wrecker—at least not consistently. And for north of $20 million per season, the Seahawks shouldn't be getting good.

They should be getting great.

RB Saquon Barkley: 3 Years, $37.8 Million

Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has never been afraid to make a splash in free agency or via trade. In his second year on the job, Roseman was responsible for assembling the 2011 "Dream Team" Eagles.

That spending spree didn't work out, but the trade a couple of years back with the Tennessee Titans that landed wide receiver A.J. Brown in Philly certainly did. Still, despite that record of aggressiveness, it was a little surprising to see Roseman give over $12.5 million per year and $26 million in guarantees to a running back—even a back as talented as Saquon Barkley.

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni certainly isn't upset about Barkley leaving the New York Giants for their NFC East rivals. As he told reporters, he's already thinking of ways to incorporate Barkley into Philly's loaded offense.

"Good players fit well into schemes. He's obviously a really good player. We're really excited to have him," Sirianni said. "Guys like that, however you use them, they're going to do a good job. A couple of years ago when we added A.J., we did a lot of work on, what does A.J. do well, how can we use him? It's been a similar process here with Saquon."

Whether this was a savvy move to put the Eagles over the top or an overreaction to last year's late-season collapse remains to be seen. But what we do know is that handing a big contract to a player at a position that has been devalued in recent years who has a fairly extensive injury history is a risky play.

OG Robert Hunt: 5 Years, $100 Million

The Carolina Panthers found themselves in a precarious spot this year. The team badly needed to upgrade an offensive line that was among the league's worst last season. But after posting the NFL's worst record in 2023, Charlotte wasn't exactly the most attractive free-agent destination. So the Panthers did what bad teams often have to to attract free agents—they overpaid.

It didn't help that the market for interior linemen exploded in 2024, with the likes of Kevin Dotson, Jonah Jackson, Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt all landing big contracts.

But given that the Panthers signed Lewis and Hunt, it can be argued they lit the fuse on that explosion—and Ian Valentino of The 33rd Team wrote that Hunt's five-year, $100 million whopper of a contract was the most jaw-dropping of the lot.

"Hunt's deal is the odd one," he said. "Dotson, Jackson and Lewis signed above-average deals but were still at least $3 million a year less than Hunt. Hunt, 27, played in 11 games in 2023 but ranked as a below-average pass blocker and run blocker in ESPN's win rate metrics. Now, the 6-foot-6, 330-pounder is the league's second-highest-paid right guard."

Per Pro Football Focus, Hunt played 547 snaps over 11 games with the Miami Dolphins last year, allowing a single sack. He's a good interior lineman.

But Hunt's average annual salary is now higher than that of Indianapolis' Quenton Nelson. And Wyatt Teller of the Cleveland Browns. And every guard that isn't Atlanta's Chris Lindstrom and Philadelphia's Landon Dickerson.

Hunt is being paid to be an elite guard. One of the league's very best. And we just haven't seen that from him over his first four seasons.

WR Jerry Jeudy: 3 Years, $52.5 Million

When the Cleveland Browns traded for wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, the move made a lot of sense. The Browns needed an upgrade at wide receiver opposite Amari Cooper. The asking price from the Denver Broncos (two Day 3 picks) was reasonable.

However, when Browns general manager Andrew Berry turned around and gave Jeudy $17.5 million per season and $41 million in guarantees, it made less sense. Berry told reporters it was a matter of trying to get ahead of a rapidly increasing wide receiver market.

"Yeah, so one of the things that we feel like is a competitive advantage for us has been our contract management philosophy," Berry said, via Chris Easterling of the Akron Beacon Journal. "And we're firm believers that in that space the best front offices or the best teams are proactive as opposed to reactionary and market dynamics. … In Jerry's case, you already saw two new receiver contracts enter the market that really are [a] harbinger of things to come in that market. I mean, probably by Week 1 of the NFL season, the top of that market's going to be north of $30 million. So, as we think of the contract management space, rather than be reactive to new market, we try and be proactive. And probably more importantly is when we think about an extension or a signing, we think about, OK, well where is the market actually going to be on September 1 as opposed to maybe an irrelevant market on March 1, so to speak."

Now, all that would hold more water if Jeudy had shown anything resembling elite wideout play to this point in his career. But the 2020 first-round pick just hasn't—Jeudy has never posted a 1,000-yard season, caught 70 passes or scored seven times. He has also missed time every year except his rookie season.

There's a reason Jeudy was available so cheaply. And the Browns are paying the 24-year-old as if he's the player Denver hoped he would be when it drafted him.

DT Justin Madubuike: 4 Years, $98 million

Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike had himself a year in 2023. The fifth-year pro shattered his career highs across the board—56 total tackles, 13 sacks and a jaw-dropping 33 quarterback hits. That massive season earned Madubuike an equally massive payday—$98 million over four seasons. In terms of average annual salary, the only interior linemen who make more are Chris Jones of the Kansas City Chiefs and Christian Wilkins of the Las Vegas Raiders.

Both of those players also signed extensions this season—it was a good year to be a defensive tackle.

However, that huge season was also an outlier—over Madubuike's first three professional seasons combined, the 26-year-old had just 8.5 sacks and 16 QB hits.

While appearing on The Lounge podcast (via Ryan Mink of the team's website), Madubuike said he's heard the chatter that last year was an aberration—and he has every intention of proving the doubters wrong and justifying his jackpot second contract.

"They think I'm just a one-hit wonder. Nah, I've put in this work for years. I see that as a little disrespectful," Madubuike said. "It's not for you to know; it's for you to find out. It's better to be the top dog. They're going to be scheming and planning to stop me. If you don't come with your best for four quarters, you're going to be embarrassed. I'm not going to do that. I'm going to embarrass them."

It's possible that last season was a coming-out party—that Madubuike will continue wreaking havoc this year and establish himself as one of the NFL's elite defensive tackles.

But the history of free agency is littered with players who parlayed a big season into an even bigger payday and then never sniffed those heights again.

That possibility can't be ruled out, either.