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NBA Teams Trending the Wrong Way at the Wrong Time

Zach Buckley

There are myriad paths NBA teams can take to the championship podium.

All of them boil down to one simple formula: playing your best basketball when it matters most.

The hoops calendar hasn't quite reached that point, of course, but the playoffs are coming soon. And the second they start, each team will find itself just four series wins away from a title.

In a perfect world, championship dreamers would already be in the process of putting their best foot forward, ideally creating a momentum wave they can ride until the confetti drops. Yet the following five clubs—all of whom hold significant win-now expectations—are instead heading the wrong direction at (almost) the least opportune time.

Cleveland Cavaliers

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From early January to the middle of February, no one ran hotter than J.B. Bickerstaff's bunch. Cleveland's first 19 outings of the new year resulted in 17 victories with the Cavs boasting a league-best plus-15.9 net rating over that stretch.

They have cooled considerably since, though, due in part to mounting injury issues (namely, a bad ankle sprain for Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell's bone bruise in his knee and recent nasal fracture) but also rapidly declining efficiency at both ends.

During that scorching-hot stretch to the new calendar year, Cleveland's attack produced a mind-boggling amount of points: 121 per 100 possessions to be exact. But over these last 18 games (10 of them losses), Cleveland has managed just 112.3 points per 100 possessions. Making matters worse, the defensive drop-off has been nearly as severe, as the club's defensive rating has swelled from 105.1 (was the league's best by a mile) to 113.7 (19th).

Prior to the slippage, the Cavs had a real chance to grab hold of the East's No. 2 seed, position themselves for a first-round matchup with a play-in tournament team and put themselves on the opposite side of the bracket from the Boston Celtics. Now, Cleveland is clinging to third place and in real jeopardy of not even hosting a first-round series.

Los Angeles Lakers

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For the Lakers, they aren't trending down so much as they are failing to level up. But for a team with championship aspirations and play-in tournament placement in the standings, it feels like a failure all the same.

Ideally, this is when L.A. would be hitting its stride, stacking up wins and at least building confidence, if not chasing down a couple clubs ranked ahead of it. Instead, the Lakers are spinning their tires with a near-.500 record (7-6) and a negative net rating (minus-0.3, 16th) since the All-Star break.

The offense that previously held this group back has at least sprung to life, no doubt helped by the fact coach Darvin Ham finally filled his starting five with his best five players: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. The Lakers were 18th in offensive efficiency and have spiked to third since.

Unfortunately, the defensive end, where the Lakers' 2019-20 title team did its best work, has become a puzzle this team can't solve. L.A.'s pre-intermission standing was 15th in defensive efficiency; post-All-Star break, the Purple and Gold have plummeted to 28th.

Had the Lakers navigated this stretch better, they had a non-zero chance of pushing for a top-six seed. Instead, they're almost certainly headed back to the play-in tournament, where they'll likely need two wins to escape this time around.

Los Angeles Clippers

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At a point in the not-so-distant past, it appeared the Western Conference was barreling toward a four-team race for the No. 1 seed. The other three participants—the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves—held up their end of the bargain. The Clippers did not, stumbling so severely they now sit just as close to the No. 8 seed as they are to No. 3.

Between December and January, this group went a blistering 23-5 while trouncing opposing teams by 8.2 points per 100 possessions. But since the start of February, they've barely had more wins (12) than losses (10) while seeing their net rating dip into the red (minus-0.6, 17th).

Injuries have increased, but that doesn't excuse what the eye test is seeing: lethargic offensive play, spotty defensive play and a general lack of energy that suggests this club has flipped it into cruise control.

"I mean that's what we're appearing to look like, which is not good," Paul George told reporters. "We want to be a team that's consistent and we want to establish an identity. I've always spoken about having an identity and I think it's extremely important. Right now, I don't think we have an identity."

A healthy Russell Westbrook might help get some of the energy back up, but he alone won't keep the Clippers from falling into their bad habits. They can get loose with the basketball, lazy with their transition defense and lifeless with their off-ball movement. Their good version can be championship-level great, but it's been way too long since they consistently flashed that form.

Philadelphia 76ers

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The 76ers were supposed to spend the stretch run establishing themselves as the Boston Celtics' biggest threat in the Eastern Conference. The injury bug had other ideas.

Reigning MVP Joel Embiid suffered a meniscus injury in late January, and Philly has been in survival mode ever since. The Sixers have snowballed down the standings, dropping 14 of the 23 games Embiid has missed so far and perhaps being fortunate to fare that well considering the club's minus-6.2 net rating over this stretch.

The "hope," per John Clark of NBC Sports Philadelphia, is that Embiid's return is 2-3 weeks out, meaning the big fella won't be involved in much (if any) of this final push. In other words, the other Sixers will need to pull this team out of its tailspin.

So far, it hasn't come close to happening. Philly has been brutal on both ends of the floor without Embiid, and while no team would be the same without an MVP candidate, the Sixers seem particularly poorly equipped to handle this kind of absence. Outside of breakout baller Tyrese Maxey, there just isn't anyone else who consistently produces.

This skid will likely send Philadelphia to the play-in tournament, as Basketball-Reference's projections give this group a 72.8 percent chance of finishing seventh, eighth or ninth. The Sixers' hopes of engineering their long-awaited playoff breakthrough are fading fast.

New York Knicks

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Credit New York's front office for assembling one of the deepest rosters in the entire Association. Even with that depth, though, the 'Bockers weren't built to withstand a ferocious run of medical misfortune like this.

It's been so rough that the Knicks are down three starters at the moment—OG Anunoby, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson—and they're still healthier than they've been in a while. That, more than anything, explains how New York went from posting January's highest winning percentage (.875) to landing 19th in the category (.476) in the nearly two months since.

"Take four starters, six rotation guys out of any lineup in the league and they're going to struggle," Knicks swingman Josh Hart told reporters. "I don't care if they're Boston with the best record, or Detroit or Washington with the worst record. If you take that many guys out at the same time you're going to struggle."

Hart is right, but that doesn't really matter. Being able to explain the Knicks' recent swoon doesn't make it any less damaging. At the end of January, they were third in the East and right on the cusp of second. Now, they're down to fifth and perhaps one rough patch away from falling into the play-in tournament.

The Knicks will hopefully get healthy at some point, but it isn't clear when any of Anunoby (elbow), Randle (shoulder) or Robinson (ankle) will return to action. And who knows how they'll look after lengthy layoffs (or, in Anunoby's case, a prolonged absence followed by a brief return followed by another sideline stint).

Hope isn't entirely lost for this team, but its uphill climb toward championship contention has no doubt steepened in this stretch.

Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com and current through games played on Thursday.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.

   

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