Nikola Topić Full Scouting Report

Team: Crvena Zvezda

Nationality: Serbian

Age: 18

Position: PG

Size: 6'6", 198 lbs

Coming off a gold medal with Serbia at the U18 European Championships, Nikola Topić had started his season with Mega MIS on NBA watch lists. But nobody had him pegged near the top of the Adriatic League leaderboard in scoring and assists.

Identifying Topić this year didn't take in-depth scouting. He produced his way into the lottery conversation quickly, putting up rare numbers for an 18-year-old with the type of 6'6" size that makes ball-handlers easy to notice.

Topić would eventually transfer to Crvena Zvezda, giving him a chance to play EuroLeague games and scouts an opportunity to evaluate him against high-level competition. However, a knee injury occurred three games in and has cost him two months and counting.

Projected Role, Pro Comps, Best Team Fits

Projected role: Lead ball-handler

Pro comparisons: Goran Dragic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Best team fits: San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz

Topić is a ball-dominant guard who's valued for his ability to create advantages at the point of attack, put pressure on the rim and make plays for himself and teammates off the dribble. He's a lead guard who offenses run through.

Goran Dragic has been a popular comparison for Topic due to their similarly effective uses of changing speed, body control, touch and IQ to compensate for limited explosion. And while Dragic finished his pro career with positive three-point shooting numbers, he wasn't considered a shooter coming in.

Topić has also been inconsistent from behind the arc, but his shotmaking flashes and free-throw percentages suggest his jumper is poised to improve.

Draft Projection

Draft ceiling: Top five

Draft floor: Late lottery

Topić going top-five will require a specific draft order, considering teams already set with lead guards aren't likely to use a pick that high on him. However, positional size, historic production and correctable weakness could put him in Tier 1 for certain front offices. And the San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards and possibly Toronto Raptors and Utah Jazz could use point guard upgrades and playmakers.

Topić could also get passed on by lottery teams that already have Cade Cunningham, LaMelo Ball, Scoot Henderson, Ja Morant, Trae Young or Fred VanVleet/Amen Thompson.

Topic doesn't offer much on the ball, so he won't look like a great fit for teams like the Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, Atlanta Hawks or Houston Rockets.

Still, at some point in that Nos. 8-14 range he'll look appealing as the best prospect available.

Physical Tools and Athleticism

Topić uses every inch of his 6'6" size to his advantage as a ball-handler and finisher.

Athletically, he has strengths and weaknesses. His most functional traits are body control and coordination in the air, which he uses on lay-ups without possessing much vertical explosion.

His frame isn't particularly strong, but he takes contact well.

And though not the quickest player in terms of first steps or lateral movement, he's fast with the ball, something that shows most when he's initiating fast breaks.

Overall, the biggest concern with his physical profile and athleticism revolves around his defensive projection when guarding NBA point guards.

Signature Strengths

Rim pressure/finishing

Possessions run through Topić, given how effective he is at beating team defenses in transition and creating advantages with his handle, timing and change of speed at the point of attack.

He's extra dangerous in ball-screen situations while breaking down defenses and slicing through gaps. The majority of his points are scored in the paint, where he uses height, body control, adjustments and angles to create easy finishing chances.

Even without a reliable jump shot, he was still able to average 18.6 points with Mega MIS before transferring to Red Star and injuring his knee.

Playmaking

Arguably the most productive pick-and-roll assist man in the class, Topić has classic point guard vision and passing instincts on the move. The ability to manipulate defenses, draw attention and find the open man should continue to work in the NBA, where at the least, if nothing else translates, teams can bank on his being able to facilitate and set up teammates.

Confidence/aggression

Dominant in FIBA and a stat leader in the Adriatic League, Topić also looked very comfortable during his limited minutes in EuroLeague before going down. He operates with visible confidence and decisiveness, which should serve him well when making the transition to NBA rookie point guard.

Weaknesses

Shooting consistency

Topić is at 28.2 percent from three combined this season. And given his reputation and clear preference to drive, NBA defenses will have an obvious defensive game plan. He was also an inefficient catch-and-shooter on limited volume, which continues to underline the notion that Topic won't have much to offer as a combo guard playing off the ball.

He did show a tendency to get hot make shots in bunches, and he's always been sharp from the free-throw line. But overall, his jump shot was not reliable this season.

Versatility

Aside from being a poor spot-up shooter, Topić showed very limited signs of driving past closeouts, cutting or running off screens. Whoever drafts him will have to commit to using him on the ball and letting him play through mistakes early.

Defensive projection

NBA offenses will immediately target Topić, who isn't overly quick or physical. He could have trouble containing smaller NBA ball-handlers, and he'll be vulnerable to getting eliminated from plays by hard screens.