Numbers often overtake the NBA discourse, determining with statistical certainty which shots are good or bad and which players are better or worse than the eye test suggests. Fans who aren't in love with that trend can rejoice when it comes to free agency, where emotions, subjectivity and sometimes even irrationality retake the spotlight.

That isn't to say that contract lengths and amounts are pure guesswork, but the sheer variety of factors to consider alongside the inherently inexact science of predicting future performance makes free agency as much art as science.

Here, we'll hit five of this offseason's trickiest free-agent situations, from Klay Thompson's potential last ride with the Golden State Warriors to Pascal Siakam and the pot-committed Indiana Pacers.

Each case comes with unique complications, but the stakes are high across the board. At least three of the contract situations we'll cover are likely to be of the nine-figure variety.

Let's run through a handful of the league's most complex 2024 free-agent decisions.

Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors

Now occupying a reserve role after struggling on both ends to start the 2023-24 season, Klay Thompson isn't likely to command anything close to the max-level extension that ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported he was expecting several months ago.

That still leaves immense uncertainty as to how much Thompson will command in years and dollars when he hits free agency this summer, a situation that'll be complicated by no shortage of sentiment. Thompson is a beloved piece of the Golden State Warriors' dynastic core and was one of the main reasons why they won all of those rings. The team likely won't let him go lightly.

Who knows what might happen if Stephen Curry and Draymond Green put pressure on general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. and the front office to keep Thompson around?

The Warriors reportedly offered Thompson a two-year extension "in the range of $48 million" prior to this season, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic. That would have been a significant annual pay cut from the $43.2 million he's making in the final year of his current deal. That number didn't account for Thompson eventually losing his starting job to rookie Brandin Podziemski, though it likely factored in expected (and now actual) decline for a 34-year-old with a torn ACL and a ruptured Achilles in his past.

Because Thompson remains an elite catch-and-shoot threat whom defenses can never ignore—he's shooting 38.2 percent from deep overall and 40.9 percent since the All-Star break—that proposed two-year, $48 million deal might still be fair. That's a bit pricey for a sixth man, and the Warriors have major luxury-tax issues to consider, but Thompson is a legitimate franchise icon.

With that said, it's easy to imagine a shooting-starved team like the Orlando Magic coming over the top with an offer the Warriors won't feel comfortable beating. At that point, it could be up to Thompson to decide whether to take less to finish his career with the only team for which he's ever played.

Emotions will run high on all sides, and the Warriors could find their heads and hearts at odds when it comes to Thompson. Here's hoping Klay sticks around on a reasonable deal that lines up with Curry's, which concludes after the 2025-26 season.

James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers

It was no coincidence that the Los Angeles Clippers surged up the standings after James Harden arrived via an early-season trade with the Philadelphia 76ers. The former MVP's facilitation and late-career embrace of spot-up three-point shooting were key drivers of a 26-5 run that got the Clips into the contender conversation.

Now, with Harden's free agency looming, L.A. must decide what this new version of the former superstar is worth.

Myriad factors will complicate that calculus. Is Harden capable of continuing to embrace a more complementary role if he gets the security of a new deal, or is he just on his best basketball behavior because he's in a contract year? It's true that Harden wanted to be in Los Angeles, but will a guy who has soured on several teams maintain his effort and commitment once he secures financial certainty?

What about Paul George's still unresolved contract status? Could his (unlikely) exit cause the Clippers to pay more for Harden since Kawhi Leonard is already inked to a new deal—sort of a face-saving effort in case Leonard expresses dissatisfaction?

There's also the reality of Harden's age-related decline to consider. Never known as a workout warrior, Harden's gradual slippage over the last half-decade has been marked by a drastic drop in athleticism. He gets to the bucket less than ever, and his all-time great free-throw grifting isn't as effective as it once was because Harden lacks the burst to keep defenders on their heels like he used to.

There's no doubt that a player who can average 17.2 points and 8.5 assists while hitting 39.7 percent of his triples has real value. But is that who Harden will be as he heads into his age-35 season and beyond? And who's out there bidding against L.A. for his services?

The Clips have deep pockets and are opening a new arena next year, and Harden has been undeniably helpful during the team's best stretches. It's just difficult to know what his market will be and how much L.A. is willing to risk on an aging star with a history of commitment issues.

DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls

You can't really start a discussion about how tricky DeMar DeRozan's impending free agency may be for the Chicago Bulls without first noting that they could (and maybe should) have made this someone else's problem.

The Bulls have been playing better in recent months (even without Zach LaVine), and DeRozan's offensive contributions late in games have loads to do with that. However, the obvious move for a play-in team with a flight-risk vet is to move him at the trade deadline.

Instead, Chicago held onto DeRozan and everyone else who might have been flippable for future value, exposing itself to the possibility of losing the six-time All-Star for nothing this summer or overpaying to keep him. A sign-and-trade is also a possibility, but DeRozan would have to agree to such an arrangement, and that doesn't change that the Bulls probably should have gotten something concrete for DeRozan when they could have.

Besides, if the plan was to keep DeRozan all along, why not work out an extension ahead of free agency? That could technically still happen by the end of June, but the years and dollars (DeRozan could extend for a starting salary of up to 140 percent of his current $28.6 million figure) might be difficult to settle.

DeRozan is still putting up 23.2 points per game on a 58.4 true shooting percentage while leading the league in total minutes played. He should also be among the front-runners for Clutch Player of the Year, so he can clearly still contribute.

But zoom out, and there's a broader question that the Bulls or some other team must answer: What's an offense-only wing worth as he enters his age-35 season?

Pascal Siakam, Indiana Pacers

Maybe it isn't quite right to call Pascal Siakam's free-agency situation an "impossible" one, but it's certainly fraught.

The Indiana Pacers clearly dealt for Siakam with much more than a half-season rental in mind. Other teams, like the Sacramento Kings, called off their pursuit of the two-time All-NBA forward because Siakam's stay may have only lasted a few months. Per Sam Amick of The Athletic, Siakam wasn't likely to re-sign in Sacramento.

The Pacers are now pot-committed. They have to pay whatever it takes to retain Siakam, because failing to do so would mean they basically set the three first-round picks that they sent to the Toronto Raptors for him on fire. That's to say nothing of Bruce Brown Jr. and Jordan Nwora, the actual outgoing players from Indy.

The Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons could have enough cap space this offseason to offer Siakam a max deal with a projected starting salary of $42.3 million. Those clubs (and any others that clear the requisite room) could sign Siakam for up to four years and a total of $181.9 million. The Pacers have the advantage of upping that number to $189.5 million over four years, plus the potential trump card of an additional fifth year that'd juice the overall contract to a total of (gulp) $245.3 million.

You can see the bind that Indiana is in.

Siakam has major leverage because he can walk away, so the Pacers can't lowball the player whom they gave up so much to get. At the same time, Indiana has to decide how much of a flight risk Siakam really is. That'll mean guessing at the intentions and willingness to spend of other teams.

Is it really going to take almost a quarter-billion dollars this summer to secure Siakam's services moving forward? Indiana soon may be forced to find out.

Jonas Valančiūnas, New Orleans Pelicans

If you're of the mind that the real key to unlocking another level for the already dangerous New Orleans Pelicans is the center position, then it means you don't view Jonas Valančiūnas as the long-term answer at the position.

A durable, burly post scorer who has also averaged 10.3 boards per game across three seasons in New Orleans, Valančiūnas comes with specific limitations. He isn't mobile, doesn't stretch the floor with volume three-point shooting, can't switch defensively and is a poor rim protector against whom opponents shoot 63.9 percent inside six feet this season. That's the second-worst figure among big men who've defended as many shots as he has while logging at least 25 games.

The practical problem: New Orleans doesn't have any cap space to spend on an outside signing, and the center market is alarmingly barren this summer anyway. That likely means retaining Valančiūnas, who made $15.4 million this past season, is the Pelicans' best option. But that's different than saying it's an objectively good one.

This season is proving New Orleans can compete with most teams in the West. Their current .620 winning percentage is on pace to be the franchise's best since Coach of the Year Byron Scott led the then-New Orleans Hornets to 56 wins in 2007-08. So there's clearly something to be said for preserving the status quo.

At the same time, it seems like the Pelicans are bumping up against a ceiling with Valančiūnas at center—one they might be able to break through with an upgrade. Unfortunately, New Orleans doesn't appear positioned to change things this offseason, at least not through free agency.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate entering games March 25. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.