There is no correct way to pick your bracket for the 2024 NCAA men's basketball tournament.

So just do what I always do and go with your gut.

Because my gut has spent months feasting on hours upon hours of games and data, it's theoretically better conditioned for those picks than yours. So, if you find yourself struggling with what to do in a certain matchup or you just want to straight-up copy someone's picks for a bracket pool, have at it.

I made these picks in a matter of about five minutes and after several hours of writing about why, and they pretty well align with the conclusions I would have come to had I spent half an hour agonizing over every selection.

So, follow me into the unknown. And if you find yourself winning a whole bunch of jelly beans, my DMs are open, all right? Share the wealth.

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First Four

The Picks: Montana State over Grambling State; Howard over Wagner; Colorado State over Virginia; Colorado over Boise State

Budding Buzzer-Beater: Boise State vs. Colorado

Love the potential of this one. Both teams are tenacious on the glass and both finished the regular season on a high note. We'll see if Boise State's upper-echelon three-point defense or Colorado's top-tier three-point offense wins the day, but a KJ Simpson buzzer-beater is absolutely in play here.

Upset Special: None

Looking at KenPom projections, I took the favorite in all four games. And none of these would really be upsets anyway. But I could see Grambling State winning if its physicality really bothers Montana State.

Player to Watch: Isaiah Stevens, Colorado State

This fifth-year senior unfortunately won't sniff the All-American teams because, well, Colorado State is in a play-in game. But he is a sensational lead guard who could just about outscore Virginia by his darn self. In his only previous NCAA tournament appearance, he had a dud in a first-round loss to Michigan in 2022. He has been waiting for redemption for two years.

First Round, East Regional

Budding Buzzer-Beater: San Diego State vs. UAB

San Diego State's first-round game last year (also as a No. 5 seed) against Charleston came right down to the wire. So did SDSU's opener in 2014 as a No. 4 seed. There's just something about the Aztecs playing in these 4/13 or 5/12 games. And while UAB isn't even top-100 on KenPom, the Blazers are a solid team who could ride Eric Gaines and Yaxel Lendeborg to an upset. I like our chances of a nail-biter on Friday afternoon in Spokane.

Upset Special: Drake over Washington State

This one would barely even be an upset. I wouldn't be shocked if the Bulldogs end up as a slight favorite by tipoff. And while I love the Myles Rice comeback story at Wazzu, I've got to go with Tucker DeVries in what is an intriguing clash between one of the tallest rosters (WSU) and one with not much height at all (Drake). But if Darnell Brodie can avoid getting into immediate foul trouble, Drake should win.

Player to Watch: Johni Broome, Auburn

The showdown between Auburn's Johni Broome and Yale's Danny Wolf will be fascinating. Wolf certainly got the best of Hunter Dickinson (eight points, 10 rebounds) when Yale faced Kansas, and maybe he could shut down Broome, too. But after getting a No. 4 seed despite spending much of the season ranked top-five on KenPom, Auburn is going to be out to prove something in this game. And if that's the case, Broome—who has already scored in double figures in 24 consecutive games—might be a little extra unstoppable.

First Round, South Regional

Budding Buzzer-Beater: Florida vs. Colorado

If we've got Boise State vs. Colorado as a possible buzzer-beater, why not the next round, too? Goodness knows we've seen some Florida games come right down to the wire this season, including the overtime victory at Kentucky. But, in this instance, we've got Florida losing on a buzzer-beater, maybe igniting the March legacy of KJ Simpson with back-to-back stone-cold game-winners.

Upset Special: James Madison over Wisconsin

Wisconsin seems to have turned a corner with its run to the Big Ten championship game, even stunning Purdue along the way. But I'm not buying it. This is the same Wisconsin team that was just pathetic over the final six weeks of the regular season, including a 22-point loss to Rutgers and close losses to both Michigan and Indiana. I was ready to pick the Badgers to lose in the first round almost no matter their draw. But 31-win James Madison? That's all day. Go Dukes. They're going to destroy Wisky's perimeter "defense."

Player to Watch: Tyler Kolek, Marquette

Most of the star players listed in the "Player to Watch" section are those who I just think are liable to completely take over in the first round, wowing viewers who are maybe tuning into college hoops for the first time all season. But in this case, I'm curious how Kolek looks, if he plays at all. He missed the final three games of the regular season and the Big East tournament with an oblique injury, but Marquette has sounded optimistic that he will play in the Dance. And if he looks like his old self, the Golden Eagles become a much bigger threat to make a deep run.

First Round, Midwest Regional

Budding Buzzer-Beater: South Carolina vs. Oregon

Unless it is getting absolutely demolished by either Alabama or Auburn, South Carolina seems to only know how to play in close games. It's why no matter how many games the Gamecocks won, they couldn't ever crack the top 40 on KenPom. So this one seems destined to come down to the wire. And with Oregon playing with a renewed focus lately, give me the Ducks to win on a buzzer-beater.

Upset Special: Samford over Kansas

The very last thing that Kansas—a team that already had a short rotation and can't reasonably be expected to be at 100 percent health after both Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson missed the Big 12 tournament with injuries—wanted to see in the first round is the type of opponent that wants to run, play a physical game, run, force a lot of turnovers, run, shoot a lot of three-pointers and run some more. But that's exactly what the Jayhawks drew in Samford. This one has "upset" written all over it.

Player to Watch: Enrique Freeman, Akron

I wasn't quite bold enough to make the 14-over-3 upset pick here, but this could be a very intriguing game for fans of the non-Creighton Big East teams who have been calling Ryan Kalkbrenner "Just Big" over the past few years. He'll have a six-inch size advantage over Freeman in the paint in this battle, but Akron's double-double and shot-blocking machine is as tenacious as they come. He went for 24 points, 21 rebounds and seven blocks in Akron's MAC semifinal, and he will be on a mission in this game.

First Round, West Regional

Budding Buzzer-Beater: Dayton vs. Nevada

Nevada was egregiously under-seeded, and Dayton was probably a little over-seeded. These teams are basically equals, with the difference being that Nevada actually won a few games this season against teams that made the tournament. DaRon Holmes II will put on a show for the Flyers, but the more well-rounded attack of the Wolf Pack will carry them to victory. Maybe Jarod Lucas doesn't hit another half-court game-winner like he did at Colorado State a couple of weeks ago, but he could.

Upset Special: Grand Canyon over Saint Mary's

The upset specials up until this one have been more about a lack of faith in the favorite than necessarily a strong belief in the underdog. But this is purely an "I really like Grand Canyon" situation. I know full well that Saint Mary's pace-of-play and rebounding prowess could easily frustrate GCU into a bunch of self-inflicted mistakes. But if the 'Lopes could beat San Diego State, they can beat the Gaels.

Player to Watch: Mark Sears, Alabama

If any first-round game is going to eclipse 200 total points, it's Alabama vs. Charleston. Both teams love to push the pace on offense and fire up a ton of three-pointers. And the star of that offensive brigade for the Crimson Tide is Sears. He has been very consistently scoring right around 22 points in each game for a couple of months now, but after losses in four of their last six games, this might be a spot where he just takes over and tries to jump-start a deep run with a 40 burger.

Second Round, East Regional

Budding Buzzer-Beater: Auburn vs. San Diego State

Very tough call in a matchup where—if you can believe it—Auburn has the more efficient defense. Prior to Championship Week, both teams had struggled mightily away from home this season, too. Could go either way. (Though, truthfully, I didn't stress over it too much, because I knew I was picking UConn in the next round regardless. Sorry, not sorry.)

Upset Special: Drake over Iowa State

Looking forward to all of the Seinfeld memes when "The Drake" makes this run to the Sweet 16. Iowa State comes into the Dance red-hot after steamrolling through the Big 12 tournament, but the Bulldogs are going to be incredibly motivated against the in-state rival who has refused to schedule them over the past half-decade. Almost feels like the committee intentionally scheduled this as a middle finger to ISU's NCSOS. And if Drake (who has one of the most turnover-averse offenses in the country) can withstand Iowa State's ball-hawking defense, it should win.

Player to Watch: Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois

Shannon was No. 3 in our NPOY rankings when he was suspended in late December after being charged with rape. He rejoined the team about three weeks later after a federal judge granted his request for a restraining order. He enters the tournament having averaged 26.9 points over his last 12 games. BYU (or Duquesne) could be in for a rude awakening.

Second Round, South Regional

Budding Buzzer-Beater: Duke vs. James Madison

Duke vs. Dukes? Insert Spider-Man vs. Spider-Man meme here. What will be interesting about this game is finding out whether JMU's perimeter defense is actually elite or more so a product of a very weak nonconference schedule (aside from the MSU opener) followed by two months in a Sun Belt Conference that ranks 29th in three-point shooting. Because if Duke isn't hitting its perimeter jumpers against the Dukes, JMU might send the Blue Devils packing.

Upset Special: Nebraska over Houston

Keisei Tominaga Hype Machine: Engage. Houston is an exceptionally good basketball team, with the exception of the most fundamental part of the game: making baskets. Nebraska has one of the best field-goal defenses in the nation and an offense led by Tominaga that can get hot and make it rain. The Cornhuskers scored at least 85 in each of their past three games, and I like their chances of getting to 70 even against the Cougars defense. And that just might be enough.

Player to Watch: Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

In years past, Texas Tech was a defensive juggernaut. This year's Red Raiders team hasn't been anywhere near as special on that end of the floor, occasionally running into major problems against a backcourt star. Well, Kentucky has a bunch of those, but Dillingham is the one who seems destined to take over at least one game in this tournament. He has been lightning in a bottle, and he might go off in this one.

Second Round, Midwest Regional

Budding Buzzer-Beater: McNeese State vs. Samford

If this matchup comes together, it is going to be so chaotic. Both of these Cinderella candidates rank top-20 in turnover percentage on defense and top-30 in effective field-goal percentage on offense. That could mean big runs in each direction. I like McNeese to get the win because it does a great job of not committing turnovers of its own, but this should be a back-and-forth affair.

Upset Special: Oregon over Creighton

At home, Creighton has been a juggernaut, scoring at least 85 points in seven consecutive games. Outside Omaha? Much less potent, averaging 73.0 points over its last five games. There were also the earlier losses to Connecticut and Colorado State, with the Bluejays tallying just 48 in each of those losses. And Oregon's physicality could cause problems for the Jays the same way Providence and St. John's have in recent weeks.

Player to Watch: Zach Edey, Purdue

Soon to be named the back-to-back National Player of the Year, Edey should be unstoppable in the paint for Purdue in a matchup with TCU—a team that commits a lot of fouls even when it isn't facing the patron saint of free-throw attempts. Whether the Horned Frogs' steal-heavy approach can fluster Purdue's guards will dictate if it's a close game, but look for the Boilermakers to feed the big man over and over again.

Second Round, West Regional

Budding Buzzer-Beater: North Carolina vs. Michigan State

This should not be a close game. With Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram, North Carolina should completely own the paint and the glass, while any Tyson Walker heroics are liable to be undone by RJ Davis heroics. But when do Tom Izzo and Michigan State ever go quietly into the night in March? Two of their last three tournament exits came in overtime games. The home crowd in Charlotte will go through quite a few fingernails before celebrating a victory.

Upset Special: New Mexico over Baylor

I've been doing this long enough to know I shouldn't be putting faith in a Mountain West team to win multiple tournament games. But darn it if I don't love this New Mexico squad. I spent much of the season touting the Lobos as my Final Four sleeper pick, and then they went out and won the MWC tournament in relatively convincing fashion. Got to at least put my bracket where my mouth had been and take Jaelen House and Co. to the Sweet 16. (I've also never been a big believer in Baylor this season.)

Player to Watch: Caleb Love, Arizona

If Arizona draws Nevada, that's a team that allows a lot of threes and commits a lot of fouls. Or if it's Dayton in the second round, not so much on the fouls front, but a perimeter defense that almost asks if you'd like to attempt a triple. Either way, Love will be large for the Wildcats, as goodness knows he has never met an open look that he didn't like. Whether he scores 35 or throws up 19 bricks is the great unknown.

Sweet 16 and Elite 8, East Regional

No. 1 Connecticut over No. 5 San Diego State

Could I interest you in a rematch of last year's national championship game? UConn won that one by 17 and might do the same here. And that's no offense to the Aztecs. They've had a great season and reasonably could stifle the Huskies offense. I just don't think they have enough offense beyond Jaedon LeDee—particularly from the perimeter—to take down the reigning champs and clear favorites to repeat.

No. 3 Illinois over No. 10 Drake

We've got Drake managing to deal with Washington State's size in the first round, but Illinois' size is a whole different ball of wax. Specifically, it doesn't take that much to stifle Washington State's offense, but Illinois is a freight train when Terrence Shannon Jr., Marcus Domask and/or Coleman Hawkins get rolling. Think the Illini just overpower this Cinderella.

No. 1 Connecticut over No. 3 Illinois

Though I had already decided before the brackets were announced that I would be picking Connecticut to win it all, I did pause for a moment here. Illinois is a very good, very large team that has been hot for a few weeks. But I don't trust the Illini's defense in this matchup against the most efficient offense in the nation. Could be one hell of a game, though, on par with that 93-87 Big Ten championship we just watched between Illinois and Wisconsin.

Sweet 16 and Elite 8, South Regional

No. 4 Duke over No. 8 Nebraska

Duke has had more than its fair share of stinkers this season, to the point where I didn't think there was any scenario I'd pick them to get to the Elite Eight. But if the region breaks around the Blue Devils like this, it is what it is. And in this matchup with Nebraska, they should be able to hit the perimeter shots that I don't trust Houston to make while also taking advantage of what is a poor rebounding 'Huskers squad.

No. 3 Kentucky over No. 2 Marquette

At this point, Tyler Kolek will theoretically be close to full strength. But will the Golden Eagles even get to this point? Whether it's Florida, Boise State or Colorado awaiting them in the second round, that is going to be a quality team that can cause serious problems if Kolek isn't right. And in what is otherwise somewhat of a coin flip of a matchup, I always ride with the team I'm more confident will even be playing in that game in the first place. And Kentucky got maybe the most favorable draw to the Sweet 16 of any top-four seed.

No. 3 Kentucky over No. 4 Duke

Sure would be a fun matchup between these two annual participants in the Champions Classic, with Duke liable to put up a lot of points against what we'll generously say is not a great Kentucky defense. But can Duke stop the Wildcats, who have averaged 97.3 points over their last six games? The way the Blue Devils got worked in both games against North Carolina this season, probably not.

Sweet 16 and Elite 8, Midwest Regional

No. 1 Purdue over No. 12 McNeese State

Can't even express how tempting it is to pick this upset. The tried-and-true approach to beating Purdue over the past two seasons has been to get physical with its guards and, in turn, frustrate Zach Edey. And for a mid-major, the Cowboys are surprisingly well-equipped to do just that. But if we can ignore what happened last year against FDU, it's noteworthy that McNeese only has two players taller than 6'6", and even they are 6'8" (CJ Felder) and 6'9" (Antavion Collum). As soon as Edey gets that no-depth frontcourt into foul trouble, it should be curtains.

No. 2 Tennessee over No. 11 Oregon

Tennessee no-showing in its first game of the SEC tournament should probably concern me a whole lot more than it does, but maybe the Volunteers were just wisely getting their once-monthly offensive dud out of the way early, and now they'll be back to scoring at a high level for a couple of weeks. They should be able to score on the Ducks' mediocre defense, and they definitely have the defense to shut down a scoring attack that has barely averaged one point per possession during its four-game winning streak.

No. 2 Tennessee over No. 1 Purdue

You better believe when I got to this point, I just threw up my hands and said, "Welp, guess I have to pick one of them to make the Final Four!" There are an awful lot of "Can't win in March" vibes in this game, and Purdue was on the losing end of one of those back in 2019 against Virginia, too. Maybe the Boilermakers change the narrative this time around, but I cannot help but think about how many times Tennessee is going to run ball-screen action to get Fletcher Loyer's poor defense switched onto Dalton Knecht en route to a possible 50-point game if Matt Painter never does anything about it.

Sweet 16 and Elite 8, West Regional

No. 1 North Carolina over No. 4 Alabama

Long before the bracket was released, I had already decided I would pick Alabama to beat any double-digit seeds in its path, but wouldn't hesitate to pick the Crimson Tide to lose as soon as they run into a single-digit seed. It just feels like that's what they've been trending toward all season—very rarely winning Quad 1 games but looking like a juggernaut against overmatched foes. And against North Carolina, Alabama's defense will be the one looking overmatched.

No. 2 Arizona over No. 11 New Mexico

This has the potential to rival that double-overtime classic between Arizona and Florida Atlantic from late December. Lots of big-shot energy and uptempo offense between these two squads from the Southwest. But if you happily allow Arizona to play transition basketball, it's not likely to end well for you. And the more possessions there are, the more likely it is to matter that Arizona's effective field-goal percentage is a good bit higher than New Mexico's.

No. 1 North Carolina over No. 2 Arizona

Not going to lie, I totally forgot about this potential Caleb Love Bowl until getting to this point in the picking process. And, not going to lie part two, I have no clue what to expect out of Love in this game if Tommy Lloyd just sits back and lets him try to match Kobe Bryant's 81-point extravaganza in what used to be the Staples Center. I do suspect he'll be pushing too hard, though, while the Tar Heels play with more of a "Look how fine we're doing without you" flair en route to the Final Four.

Final Four

East No. 1 Connecticut over West No. 1 North Carolina

In the past 30 NCAA tournaments, Connecticut has five national championships, North Carolina has four and no other program has more than three.

But would you believe these programs have only met in the tournament one time, with UNC beating UConn in the 1998 Elite Eight (before losing to Utah in the Final Four)?

What I'm saying is we are long overdue.

And, well, we already have a good idea what to expect from their neutral-court meeting in early December, which Connecticut won by 11.

UNC has had a great defense for much of this season, but when things go sideways, they really go sideways, allowing at least 80 points in six of its seven losses. And while RJ Davis is mighty good, the Tar Heels' overall shooting usually isn't going to be good enough to overcome that type of defensive effort.

Midwest No. 2 Tennessee over South No. 3 Kentucky

Why, yes, I would love a third round of this SEC slugfest, thank you.

Tennessee won 103-92 at Rupp Arena, and Kentucky returned the favor with an 85-81 road win to close out the regular season. And then both teams bowed out immediately in the SEC tournament to prevent a third matchup from coming together.

But speaking from Duke-UNC experience two years ago in New Orleans, a rubber match in the Final Four would be amazing.

Offense was the name of the game in the first two battles, but which do you trust more in the Final Four: Kentucky's No. 1 three-point percentage offense in the country or Tennessee's No. 3 adjusted defensive efficiency?

Love this Kentucky team, but I think this is where just not having much on defense beyond Reed Sheppard steals and Ugonna Onyenso blocks becomes its undoing.

National Championship Prediction

No. 1 Connecticut Huskies over No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers

Truth be told, I never thought I'd pick Tennessee this far. And, yes, the fact that my pick for national runner-up is matched up in the first round with Saint Peter's for the second time in three years is a terrifying proposition.

But the Volunteers did have a spectacular season. Occasional duds on offense, but less frequent than last year. With the nucleus of Dalton Knecht, Zakai Zeigler, Jonas Aidoo and a great defense leading the way, I think they'd be a more popular Final Four pick were it not for the Rick Barnes factor and the fact that they've never been to a Final Four in program history.

But whether it was Tennessee, Kentucky, Purdue, Houston or whomever in this spot, it was pre-determined that I would have Connecticut winning the game.

I was all-in on the Huskies early last season, but lost some of that good feeling when they went through their January swoon and only had the courage to pick them to the Final Four.

This year, I decided in early January that as long as they were healthy, I was going to pick them to win it all. And outside of one night in Omaha that got away from them in a hurry, not only have they been healthy, but they've been unbeaten.

Connecticut is the clear favorite, and frankly the only team that I trust in the slightest at this point in the season.

The Huskies will become the first back-to-back national champion since 2006-07 Florida.