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2024 Fantasy Football Ripple Effects After NFL Free Agency Early Tampering Period

Alex Kay

The start of the NFL's free agency early tampering period has seen a flurry of big-time signings being reported. These moves will have wide-reaching ripple effects for fantasy football managers in 2024 as the deals have not only altered depth charts, but also the power structure around the league.

With so many notable free agents set to play for new teams this coming year, let's look at the fantasy implications from these signings. Read on to see which players are winners and which are losers now that some of the dust has settled.

All fantasy point metrics are courtesy of FantasyPros PPR data.

Tony Pollard to Tennessee Titans

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The Tennessee Titans are electing to make Tony Pollard their first major signing of the post-Derrick Henry era. With Henry almost certain to sign elsewhere this offseason, Pollard is in line to lead a backfield that still has one of the NFL's more intriguing up-and-comers in Tyjae Spears.

Winner: Tony Pollard

After failing to live up to the hype during his lone season as the Dallas Cowboys' primary running back, Pollard is getting a nice chance to bounce back in the Music City.

Pollard is set to ink a reasonable three-year, $24 million deal that indicates the direction the team's backfield will go under new head coach Brian Callahan. The Titans generally utilized a power rushing game with Henry pounding the rock, but they will likely air it out more with a high-end pass-catcher like Pollard leading the running back corps.

Fantasy managers, especially those in PPR formats, should reap the benefits of Pollard in this system. While he's coming off a relatively pedestrian campaign, he still reached career highs in targets and receptions and could build on those marks in Tennessee.

Pollard's ability to shoulder 15 or so totes per game while also serving as a primary checkdown option for second-year quarterback Will Levis could put him in the low-end RB1 mix for 2024.

Loser: Tyjae Spears

Spears' promising development is one of the main reasons the Titans should feel comfortable forging ahead without Henry in the mix. Spears averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per carry as a rookie while also serving as the team's primary pass-catching back, reeling in 52 passes for 385 yards.

The 22-year-old even finished as fantasy's No. 34 RB despite playing just 558 offensive snaps in 2023. While there were some concerning performances—including logging zero rushing yards on six attempts in his lone start in Week 16—it was an overall positive first season.

It now seems the Titans are likely to continue using Spears in a complementary role, keeping his value down and preventing him from ascending the fantasy rankings in his sophomore campaign.

D'Andre Swift to Chicago Bears

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The Chicago Bears are on the verge of assembling one of the NFL's deepest running back platoons thanks to their agreement with D'Andre Swift. Swift represents a major upgrade over journeyman D'Onta Foreman, the man whose spot he is taking to play alongside Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Expect Swift to see plenty more run than Foreman did during his lone season in the Windy City.

Winner: D'Andre Swift

Just like the Philadelphia Eagles overall last season, Swift experienced some massive highs and lows during his one-year run with the club. After emerging as Philadelphia's starter in Week 2, Swift exploded for 27.1 PPR points by rushing for 175 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. That would be Swift's high-water mark of 2023, however, as the 25-year-old would go on to average 12.5 PPR points per game on the year.

While Swift still finished as the No. 20 RB, he should see a bump in the rankings now that he's playing in a system that should be heavily slanted toward the ground game with a rookie likely set to take over under center. His ceiling is capped by the presence of competent talent around him, but Swift's three-year, $24 million deal indicates he'll be the top option.

Expect Swift to finish somewhere in the No. 12 to 19 range among running backs this season.

Losers: Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson

After Justin Fields led the team in rushing in each of the last two seasons, the Bears felt the need to get a top running back to augment projected No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams when he takes the reins next season. The team clearly lacked faith in Herbert and Johnson—the two holdover RBs still under contract—and could even relegate one of them to the pine on a near-full-time basis.

Johnson flashed promise during his rookie campaign—finishing with 561 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on 115 touches—but wasn't trusted to handle a large workload. He never saw more than 50 percent of the offensive snaps aside from a single contest and might be the third-string option going forward.

Herbert might be the biggest loser following the Swift signing, as his role could be severely diminished. After averaging an impressive 5.7 yards per carry as Chicago's RB2 in 2022, he came back down to earth last season and saw his YPC drop down to 4.6. Availability has been a concern for the undersized back too, as Herbert has missed nine games over the last two years.

While Herbert doesn't need a lot of snaps to do damage, it's unlikely he'll sniff the 45 percent share he saw this past season. Expect him to dip down to the high-20s or low-30s in that category while working as Swift's backup.

Gabe Davis to Jacksonville Jaguars

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The Jacksonville Jaguars landed on Gabe Davis to fill their need for a wide receiver this offseason. The wideout's signing appears to be hinting that the franchise might be moving on without free agent Calvin Ridley, leaving Davis to round out a pass-catching unit that also includes fellow receiver Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram.

Winner: Khalil Shakir

The Buffalo Bills' decision to let Davis walk has opened the door for Khalil Shakir to have a breakout season.

Shakir, a fifth-round pick in 2022, took a few years to find his footing in the league but finally appears ready to take over a much larger role in Buffalo's offense. After a pedestrian rookie campaign in which he rarely saw the field and made little impact, Shakir saw his snap count jump to over 50 percent this past season while reeling in a notable 39 of his 45 targets for 611 yards and two touchdowns.

While Davis wasn't exactly a target hog, he's been responsible for 174 looks over the last two seasons, and many of those should be heading Shakir's way.

Expect the 24-year-old to build on his strong close to 2023—which included a six-catch, 105-yard outing against the Miami Dolphins in the finale and a seven-catch, 44-yard, one-touchdown showing against the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs—and emerge as a solid WR3 this coming season.

Loser: Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley re-emerged as a fantasy stalwart last season, returning from a long hiatus to put up 229.9 points and finish as the WR18. He proved he could be a legitimate No. 1 option and established fantastic rapport with quarterback Trevor Lawrence during his first season in Jacksonville.

Regardless of whether Ridley re-signs—a return is reportedly still on the table—or joins another club, it's unlikely he'll find the same fantasy success in 2024.

If Ridley does stay in Jacksonville, he'll find it tougher to amass the same type of volume. The 29-year-old capitalized on his 136 targets—tying him for the 16th-most in the NFL—to put up over 1,000 receiving yards and score eight touchdowns. Davis will almost certainly cut into those touches after agreeing to a three-year, $39 million deal.

Should Ridley sign elsewhere, it seems unlikely it will be with a franchise that employs a quarterback of Lawrence's caliber. The New England Patriots—who are likely to draft a rookie to fill their void under center—are one of the top suitors, while the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers are reportedly also in the running. While Ridley should get plenty of volume if he lands with any one of those squads, he'll be hard-pressed to put up similar numbers to the ones he did with Lawrence zipping him the ball.

Regardless of where he lands, Ridley won't remain a top-20 wideout during the 2024 fantasy football season.

Russell Wilson to Pittsburgh Steelers

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The Pittsburgh Steelers capitalized on the Denver Broncos' decision to release Russell Wilson last week, agreeing to a one-year, team-friendly deal with the veteran signal-caller. While Wilson fared poorly during his two-year stint in the Mile High City, he could benefit greatly from a fresh start and possibly even return to Pro Bowl form in 2024.

Winner: Russell Wilson

Wilson is getting a chance to show he's still a capable NFL quarterback on a roster that has sorely lacked one since Ben Roethlisberger's retirement following the 2021 season. The Steelers have churned through three starters since Big Ben hung up his cleats, most recently leaning on longtime backup Mason Rudolph to lead the team through the end of the regular season and in the playoffs.

While Rudolph sparked Pittsburgh to three straight wins to close out the campaign before running out of gas in the Wild Card Round, he wasn't an ideal option going forward. Wilson could be, though, at least for a few seasons, if he's able to tap into the ability that made him a nine-time Pro Bowler during his tenure with the Seattle Seahawks.

Wilson never finished above the No. 14 QB in fantasy during his time in Denver, but he was a fixture in the top 10 between 2013 and '19—including ranking as the No. 1 QB during the 2017 campaign. His star began to fade in his final Seahawks campaign when he finished No. 16, but he'll have the talent surrounding him in Pittsburgh to vault back into the top 10.

If Wilson can establish rapid chemistry with wideouts George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, he'll be able to take the Steelers offense to heights it hasn't seen since Roethlisberger's prime. Factor in the team's solid rushing attack and a big safety blanket in tight end Pat Freiermuth, and there's plenty of reason to believe Russ will start cooking again in 2024.

Loser: Kenny Pickett

It wasn't that long ago that Kenny Pickett appeared to be the Steelers' future at quarterback. After investing a first-round pick into the local Pittsburgh product—and making him the only passer selected in the first two rounds of the 2022 draft—the Steelers quickly turned to Pickett and were rewarded with seven wins over his first 12 starts.

Unfortunately Pickett hasn't progressed beyond that promising rookie showing. He went 7-5 again in 2023 while completing just 62 percent of his passes for 2,070 yards and six touchdowns, failing to even match his already pedestrian first-year numbers. After losing his job to Rudolph and now Wilson, it's going to be tough for Pickett to prove he belongs in the NFL—at least during his stay in Pittsburgh.

While dynasty managers with big benches may want to hang onto the 25-year-old to see if he can shine following a change of scenery, those in redraft leagues shouldn't even consider Pickett anywhere near the fantasy radar. Even if Wilson gets injured, Pickett likely won't do enough to warrant starting in all but the deepest two-QB formats.

Josh Jacobs to Green Bay Packers

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The Green Bay Packers are reinforcing their offense after a surprise run to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, coming to terms with one of the best running backs on the open market: Josh Jacobs.

Jacobs was an All-Pro in 2022 but had a disappointing follow-up to that special season. Green Bay will be hoping he can return to form, especially with the team releasing Aaron Jones.

Winner: Josh Jacobs

Jacobs is a clear winner here as he'll be taking over a Green Bay backfield that has little in the way of competition for touches. With Jones out of the picture, Jacobs is almost certain to continue enjoying the massive amount of volume he saw during his four-year tenure with the Las Vegas Raiders.

It remains to be seen if Jacobs can capitalize on that workload the way he did during his All-Pro 2022 season. That year Jacobs racked up over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 touchdowns, the second time in his career—joining his 2020 Pro Bowl campaign—that he reached that lofty scoring mark.

Injuries took their toll in 2023, causing Jacobs to miss four games and look ineffective in many others. He would go on to record a meager 1,101 yards from scrimmage with only six touchdowns, basically halving his output from the prior year. Fantasy managers certainly took note of Jacobs' fall from No. 3 at his position to No. 28 in PPR points.

All signs point to Jacobs returning to an RB1 in Titletown. Not only is Jones being released, but AJ Dillon also isn't expected back as he looks for a new contract of his own on the open market. With Ellis Merriweather (who didn't log a single carry as a rookie last season) the only other back currently under contract in Green Bay, the sky is the limit for Jacobs while playing out the four-year, $48 million deal he's set to sign.

Winner: Zamir White

The Raiders could have the league's next star running back on their hands in Zamir White. The 2022 fourth-rounder shrugged off a forgettable rookie season to put together some impressive showings down the stretch this past year. He could be in the RB2 mix in the very near future.

The starting job appears to be White's for the taking. While the Raiders could still opt to bring in a veteran, it's unlikely the team will be willing to spend big after refusing to give a market value extension to Jacobs. That indicates some strong faith in White's ability to ascend the depth chart and become a focal point of their offense.

Given the 24-year-old amassed nearly 400 yards and a score on his 84 carries across a mere four starts to close out 2023, there's ample reason to believe White could become a fantasy force in 2024.

Saquon Barkley to Philadelphia Eagles

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The Philadelphia Eagles didn't wait long to replace D'Andre Swift in free agency. The Eagles landed arguably the biggest prize of the 2024 running back class in Saquon Barkley, stealing away the former New York Giant to deal a blow to their biggest NFC East rivals while reinforcing a position of clear need.

Winner: Saquon Barkley

Barkley should feel relieved that he'll no longer need to carry the weight of an entire offense on his injury-prone legs. After agreeing to sign with Philadelphia for $37.75 million over the next three years, the veteran back will get a chance to play with the most competent supporting cast of his career and should be able to shine in his new role.

While Barkley was able to finally stay healthy and put together a Pro Bowl season in 2022, he struggled to replicate that performance this past year—going from rushing 295 times for 1,312 yards and 10 scores to posting just 962 yards and six touchdowns on 247 totes. Although he did score four receiving touchdowns in 2023 compared to zero the year prior, his effectiveness as a pass-catcher unsurprisingly diminished, dropping from 57 receptions for 338 yards to 41 catches for 280 yards.

Barkley will now take over Philadelphia's lead back role from Swift, a player who rushed for more yards on fewer carries last season. It would hardly be a shock for Barkley (who logged 79 percent of New York's offensive snaps in 2023) to be a bit more involved than Swift (who assumed 58 percent of Philly's offensive snaps) was in Philadelphia's game plan, making him a strong candidate to return to the RB1 discussion in 2024.

Loser: Kenneth Gainwell

After earning a career high in snaps last season, Kenneth Gainwell could find himself relegated back to sparing usage this coming year. The back failed to distinguish himself despite seeing a large uptick in volume in his third NFL season, dropping from 4.5 yards per carry in 2022 to 4.3 this past season.

While Gainwell was Philadelphia's clear-cut No. 2 back behind Swift and logged 41 percent of the offensive snaps last season, he'll likely dip back to the high-20 percent mark with Barkley now in the picture. He could even fall further out of favor if the Eagles elect to draft a prospect for their backfield come April, a sensible option given Barkley and Lew Nichols III are currently set to be the only Philadelphia RBs under contract in 2025.

Gainwell was already hardly on the fantasy radar, finishing No. 49 in PPR points despite his career-most playing time. He would have been an intriguing middle-round draft choice had the Eagles not landed such a capable RB1 in free agency, but Gainwell is going to find it difficult to move the needle in 2024 barring an injury and should be left on waivers.

Kirk Cousins to Atlanta Falcons

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The Atlanta Falcons made the biggest wave of the legal tampering period by agreeing to a contract with Kirk Cousins. The move shored up Atlanta's biggest deficiency and makes the club a contender in the wide-open NFC South. It also could make the Falcons a fantasy football force.

Winners: Drake London and Kyle Pitts

By convincing Cousins to come aboard with a four-year deal worth $180 million, the Falcons finally have a passer who can unlock all the skill-position talent they've accumulated at the top of the last three drafts. Atlanta invested heavily in the likes of Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson—all taken No. 8 overall or earlier—but these players and the team have languished without a capable quarterback running the show.

It became painfully apparent that the Falcons wouldn't find the answer to their problems cheaply after they tried and failed to install veteran Marcus Mariota, 2022 third-rounder Desmond Ridder and journeyman Taylor Heinicke over the last two years. London and Pitts struggled to reach their ceiling with those players under center, but they should finally be able to live up to their potential and break out together in 2024.

Pitts flashed promise as a rookie—making the Pro Bowl after accumulating 1,026 yards and a touchdown on 68 receptions—but has regressed in each of the last two seasons. London has seen plenty of volume since being drafted but has a rather pedestrian 141 catches for 1,771 yards and six touchdowns to show for the 227 passes launched his way over the last two years.

Expect both to see a significant bump in their fantasy draft stock following Cousins' decision to join the Falcons. It will be warranted, however, as each should finish in the top tier of their respective positions—at least if Cousins is playing the same type of football he had been prior to his season-ending injury in 2023.

Loser: Justin Jefferson

The Minnesota Vikings have parted ways with Cousins following six seasons with him at the helm of their offense. The move leaves the club bereft of a proven starting quarterback, an issue that will set back the team's skill-position talent in fantasy this coming season.

Justin Jefferson may be the most impacted by this departure. The wideout has thrived with Cousins under center, making three straight Pro Bowl appearances to open his career and earning Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2022. While an injury limited him to just 10 appearances in 2023, he was the consensus No. 1 overall pick ahead of the fantasy season and opened the year with 458 yards on 27 catches in three games.

With the Jefferson-Cousins battery broken up, it remains to be seen if the wideout can continue dominating defenses the way he has in the past. He was able to put together some strong performances late in 2023 with Cousins sidelined—including a 192-yard, 12-catch outing in the finale—but was held under 85 yards in three of his last five games and only once had more than seven catches in that span.

While Jefferson should still be in the WR1 discussion, he's no longer a slam-dunk pick at the top of drafts. Expect him to still post some solid numbers, but players like CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase should be selected ahead of him without Cousins in the mix.

   

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