Mike Evans is staying with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

Ripple Effects of Mike Evans Contract on 2024 NFL Free Agency, Offseason WR Market

Alex Kay

Mike Evans made waves Monday morning when his agent informed ESPN's Adam Schefter that he's signing a two-year, $52 million contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that includes $35 million in guarantees.

This move comes just a week before the official start of the new league year, helping set the market for an intriguing free-agent class of wideouts.

Evans' contract also hints at the type of money that teams will have to dole out to rework deals or extend their own elite receivers.

There's plenty more to unpack with this move, including what Tampa's plan is at the quarterback position now that their No. 1 wideout is locked up through the 2025 campaign. With that in mind, read on for the main ripple effects stemming from Evans' new contract.

Free-Agent Wide Receivers Set to Cash In

Michael Pittman Jr. Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Teams hoping to sign a high-end receiver this offseason should put more money aside than they may have initially expected now that Evans has set the market.

While front offices may not be thrilled about the prospect of having to dole out more money, free-agent wideouts should be ecstatic about the bag Evans just secured. Not only did one of the league's most consistent players get a contract commensurate with his outstanding production, but he also set the table for several others to get theirs as well.

While Evans didn't ink a record-setting extension, he is now the fourth-highest-paid receiver in terms of average salary, and more than two-thirds of that money is guaranteed. It's a strong deal for a wideout who will be turning 31 before the start of the 2024 season, and it should help some of the NFL's younger receivers get big contracts.

Evans' deal ended up being slightly higher than Spotrac's market-value estimate. The site pegged his value at $23.8 million annually, more than $2 million less than he eventually agreed to. That may be great news for Michael Pittman Jr., as Spotrac placed a similar valuation on the Indianapolis Colts star ($22.7 million per year).

Even slightly lower-tier wideouts like Calvin Ridley, who has an estimated annual value of $17.5 million, could see a surge in value. According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, the Jacksonville Jaguars may find it "tough" to retain Ridley if they don't re-sign him before free agency begins, as "the expectation is he will put up a rather gaudy number on a per-year average."

Marquise Brown ($14.8 million AAV) and Darnell Mooney ($10.4 million) are among the other wideouts who could see a bump in price now that the market has been set. Evans' contract has also given the franchise-tagged Tee Higgins ($18.6 million) a strong starting point as his representatives work to secure a long-term deal from the Cincinnati Bengals.

Buffalo Bills Get Blueprint to Rework Stefon Diggs' Deal

Stefon Diggs Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

Stefon Diggs and the Buffalo Bills have had a largely fruitful—albeit occasionally rocky—relationship over the last four seasons. The wideout has made the Pro Bowl every year since he came over via trade from the Minnesota Vikings and still has four seasons remaining on the $96 million contract extension he signed in 2022.

However, that deal could be altered significantly this offseason after a notable slip in production and hefty impending cap hit.

NBC Sports' Peter King believes Buffalo's front office will "want to do major surgery on Diggs' deal," which he didn't expect Diggs to be thrilled about. King noted that the receiver's $27.9 million cap hit isn't commensurate with his production last season nor his projected value going forward, as Diggs didn't top 100 receiving yards in any of his team's last 13 games and will be turning 31 in November.

While Diggs still finished the 2023 campaign with 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns on 107 catches, his production tailed off as the year progressed. He bottomed out in the Bills' divisional-round loss to the eventual champion Kansas City Chiefs, finishing with only three catches for 21 yards and no touchdowns.

If Buffalo wanted to part ways with Diggs this offseason, releasing him wouldn't make sense. His dead cap hit ($31.1 million) would be greater than his actual cap hit ($27.8 million), although the Bills could spread that out across 2024 and 2025 by making him a post-June 1 cut.

A trade would make more sense on paper, but it might be difficult to find a willing partner. The aging wideout is owed $28 million in salary in each of the next three seasons and $22.5 million in 2027, which makes him prohibitively costly to acquire.

Reworking Diggs' deal appears to be the most palatable choice, assuming Diggs agrees. Adjusting his contract to pay him something the neighborhood of what Evans received—while also reducing the number of years on it—would allow the Bills to get out easier if their No. 1 receiver doesn't return to form in 2024.

Buccaneers Look Ready to Lock Up Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

With Evans now secured for two more years, Tampa Bay's front office can turn its full attention to quarterback. The club made an unexpected run to the divisional round behind standout play from Baker Mayfield, and it now must choose whether to try to build on that performance or go a different direction under center.

CBS Sports' Jonathan Jones noted that Evans' return should make it easier for the Bucs to lure Mayfield back. The two established instant rapport and connected for 79 receptions for 1,255 yards and 13 scores in their first season together.

Earlier this offseason, Mayfield emphasized the importance of the Buccaneers retaining Evans.

"We've both voiced our opinions that we want to be together, but it's got to be the right way," Mayfield told NFL Network's Andrew Siciliano and Daniel Jeremiah. "Mike deserves to be a Buccaneer for life. He's done so much for that community, so much for the franchise. He's put his time in. I can't say enough about the guy as a player, and just as a guy in general."

Mayfield provided an immense return on investment after signing a one-year deal worth up to $8.5 million last offseason. He started all 17 games and went 9-8 while earning his first ever Pro Bowl nod.

The 28-year-old is now poised to make far more in his second foray into free agency in as many years following a career-best 4,044-yard, 28-touchdown campaign.

The Bucs are in good shape to offer Mayfield a market-value extension. Spotrac projects him as being worth $27.1 million annually, and Tampa still has an estimated $44 million in cap space.

If Mayfield walks, Tampa's best alternative options are either shelling out an untenable $40 million per year for Kirk Cousins or rolling the dice on a developmental prospect with the No. 26 overall pick. It would thus behoove the organization to keep Mayfield around for at least two more seasons to continue his partnership with Evans.

Teams Will Have to Scramble to Find Wideouts

Marvin Harrison Jr. Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons were amongst the clubs hoping to court Evans in free agency, according to The Athletic's Dianna Russini. Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook also thought the Chicago Bears, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts were all in the running for Evans' services had he not re-upped in Tampa.

Now that he's officially unavailable, those receiver-needy teams must pivot and identify other pass-catchers to target when the new league year begins next week.

With so many teams seeking a star receiver this offseason, the top options should be in high demand. Only five wideouts made it into Pro Football Focus' top-50 list of impending free agents at the start of the offseason. Evans (No. 13 overall) and Tee Higgins (No. 4) are already unavailable, so the scarcity will almost certainly drive up prices for remaining talent like Michael Pittman Jr. (No. 11), Marquise Brown (No. 17) and Calvin Ridley (No. 24).

Some of the clubs that had Evans in their offseason plans may now have to settle for a rookie prospect filling a major hole in their receiving corps. While there are six wideouts ranked inside the top 32 on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's latest big board—including No. 1 overall prospect Marvin Harrison Jr.—none of them have proven their ability to contribute at a high level on a yearly basis like Evans.

Expect things to get interesting next week as teams maneuver to land these coveted receivers.

   

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