NFL free agency is fun, but it's the NFL draft that serves as the most exciting and fun event of the offseason. There's a reason it has turned into a multi-day television event that draws over 50 million viewers.
So what if we took free agency, which probably prompts fans all over the country to turn on Adam Schefter's X notifications every March, into a similar spectacle?
Putting aside the ethical questions of taking the decision-making out of the player's hands for a moment, it would certainly yield some interesting results. It would reward teams who have managed their cap in a way that they have cap space on hand while continuing to promote parity in the way that the draft is designed to do.
For this hypothetical exercise, we'll establish the order based on Spotrac's most recent cap figures and go in order based on who has the most cap space.
From there, we'll project what the top 10 picks would look like based on each team paying the projected market value for the top players and addressing their team needs. Let's put the Washington Commanders on the clock.
Editor's note: The order of the teams was determined prior to the Patriots' release of J.C. Jackson.
1. Washington Commanders: EDGE Josh Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars
Cap Space: $82.3 million
Projected Market Value: Five years, $120 million
If you're doing a ranking of the free agents, Josh Allen probably isn't at the top of the list. Chris Jones is the best overall player and Kirk Cousins ranks highly as a quarterback who would move the needle for a lot of teams.
However, Allen is the pick here because Jones and Cousins wouldn't make a lot of sense for the Commanders.
The Commanders just handed Daron Payne a four-year, $90 million extension and already have Jonathan Allen for two more years with cap hits of $21.4 million and $23 million. A reunion with Kirk Cousins isn't necessarily best either. The Commanders have the second pick and can draft either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
That leaves Allen as the next logical choice. At just 26 years old, he's younger than both Jones and Cousins with a record of production at a premium position. He's coming off the best season of his career with 17.5 sacks for the Jaguars.
After trading away Montez Sweat and Chase Young, Allen would be the building block for the pass rush, and the Commanders would suddenly have one of the best defensive lines in the league.
That's something Dan Quinn can work with.
2. Tennessee Titans: DT Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs
Cap Space: $80.7 million
Projected Market Value: Three years, $85.5 million
General manager Ran Carthon and new head coach Brian Callahan would have to consider finding some help for Will Levis with the No. 2 pick, but ultimately, Chris Jones is too good to pass up.
Jones had the second-highest pass rush win rate among all interior defenders at 20 percent. That was just about tied with Aaron Donald, but Jones saw nearly 10 percent more double-teams, per ESPN Analytics.
Regardless, he had 10.5 sacks in the regular season and was instrumental in the Chiefs winning another Super Bowl in the postseason.
The Titans have a strong defensive interior but are in a position for it to look a lot different next season. They already cut Teair Tart during the season after the defensive tackle requested his own release.
Denico Autry is now 33 years old and set to be a free agent.
Jeffery Simmons signed a four-year, $94 million extension in April, but Jones has the versatility to line up all over the defensive line. Pairing the two would be a unique threat to offensive lines because of their ability to disrupt from the interior.
Jones is one of the most game-changing talents that could be available in free agency. The Titans simply don't have many game-changers on the roster right now.
3. Chicago Bears: CB Jaylon Johnson, Chicago Bears
Cap Space: $79.8 million
Projected Market Value: Five years, $78.7 million
This selection just goes to show how much sense it makes for the Bears to work out a new contract for Jaylon Johnson. He's one of the top free agents available and he's a proven fit for what Matt Eberflus and the Bears are trying to do.
Fortunately, it looks like it's going to happen for Chicago. NFL insider Jordan Schultz reported on Bleacher Report that the Bears are "inching closer" toward a new deal.
The relationship between the cover man and the Bears has had its ups and downs. He was permitted to seek a trade at the deadline this season. But on the field, he was great in 2023.
Johnson was one of the league's best corners with four interceptions, 10 passes defended and a 50.9 passer rating allowed when targeted. In this scenario, the Bears are presented with the opportunity to keep a good thing going on a roster that needs it.
Getting more weapons for the passing game was a consideration. However, the Bears are well-positioned to address their offense with the first and ninth picks in the NFL draft. They can take a quarterback with the first pick and then draft a wide receiver, like Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze, with the ninth selection.
4. New England Patriots: WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Cap Space: $77.9 million
Projected Market Value: Four years, $90.9 million
There was a lot of consideration given to Kirk Cousins in this spot. Ultimately, the Patriots are too well-positioned to take a quarterback in the draft and there aren't enough offensive pieces in place to make an aggressive move like signing the 35-year-old passer.
Instead, the Patriots use their selection to grab the top young receiver on the board. With the Bengals already using the franchise tag on Tee Higgins, Pittman becomes the most exciting under-30 receiver on the market.
Pittman has thrived in Indianapolis despite average-to-below-average quarterback play throughout his four years there. He's had 336 catches for 3,662 yards and 15 touchdowns while catching balls from the likes of 39-year-old Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, 37-year-old Matt Ryan and Gardner Minshew II.
Our latest mock draft has the Patriots selecting Jayden Daniels with the third overall pick. The greatest challenge to his success in New England would be the dearth of weapons in Foxborough.
Signing Pittman would at least give him a reliable option on the outside who the Patriots can build the rest of their receiver corps around.
5. Indianapolis Colts: EDGE Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers
Cap Space: $73.9 million
Projected Market Value: Five years, $108.7 million
In this scenario, the Colts just lost their best offensive receiving weapon in Pittman. They could opt to replace him with Mike Evans, but Evans doesn't necessarily fit with the team's timeline as a 30-year-old free agent.
Instead, they opt for the best overall player on the board right now in Brian Burns. The Panthers' edge defender actually saw a dip in his production and still posted eight sacks with an 11.8 pressure percentage, per Sports Info Solutions.
The Colts already have a talented defensive line featuring the interior duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. Buckner finished fifth in DT pass rush win rate and Stewart placed third in DT run stop win rate. Yet they don't have a true No. 1 edge-rusher.
Samson Ebukam and Kwity Paye combined for 18 sacks, but Ebukam has always been a good secondary option and Paye only had an 8.3 pressure percentage. Adding Burns to the mix would give them a truly elite defensive line.
Finding weapons for Anthony Richardson would become a pressing priority, but it's a lot easier for the offense to progress when it is paired with a dominant defense.
6. Houston Texans: DT Justin Madubuike, Baltimore Ravens
Cap Space: $70 million
Projected Market Value: Four years, $81.3 million
The Texans' 2023 draft class has transformed them from an also-ran that was changing head coaches every year to a really scary rising team with DeMeco Ryans at the helm. The Texans have a young, talented core, and a free-agent draft would give them an opportunity to add yet another young talent.
Ryans got to enjoy a dominant defensive line when he was coaching with the San Francisco 49ers. That included Nick Bosa, Charles Omenihu, Samson Ebukam and Arik Armstead.
Signing Justin Madubuike in this draft would give Ryans his Armstead in Houston. The 6'3", 305-pound defender isn't an exact replica of Armstead, but he has a similar ability to get pressure on the inside. He broke out this season with 13 sacks and 33 quarterback hits.
Combining his talents with Will Anderson Jr. and re-signing Jonathan Greenard, who had 12.5 sacks this season, would give the Texans a fierce pass rush. That's going to become more critical as the Texans attempt to make the transition from upstart feel-good story to legitimate playoff contenders against the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
Stealing Madubuike away from the latter would certainly give Houston a huge boost in the right direction.
7. Detroit Lions: WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cap Space: $54.3 million
Projected Market Value: Four years, $95.3 million
The Lions were four points away from making their first-ever Super Bowl berth. That's going to sting until the day that they finally get to play for the Lombardi.
The good news is that the core of the team that had a 24-7 halftime lead over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game is going to remain intact in 2024. With a bunch of cap space going into the offseason, it makes free agency a big deal for the team this year.
They should be looking for a few key pieces who can push them over the top and at least get back to playing for the NFC title.
That's why it shouldn't bother them that Mike Evans is 30 years old. He would supercharge an already devastating offense with a vertical threat who would be a great complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Evans has been a picture of consistency throughout his career. He is the only player to have 10 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons as a receiver to start his career and he hit double-digit touchdowns (13) for the third time in four years last season.
St. Brown is an excellent receiver in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. Evans would immediately be the team's best vertical threat and would force attention away from Jameson Williams, a former first-round pick who has breakout potential in 2024.
8: Cincinnati Bengals: DT Christian Wilkins, Miami Dolphins
Cap Space: $52.2 million
Projected Value Market: Four years, $81 million
This is a great intersection of team need and best player available. The Bengals defensive line did not hold up very well this season. It was 26th in EPA allowed per rush, 23rd in pass rush win rate and 26th in run stop win rate.
Now, D.J. Reader is set to be a free agent and B.J. Hill is in the final year of his contract. Signing Christian Wilkins would ensure that the Bengals have an interior defender who can get after the passer and anchor the run defense for the foreseeable future.
Wilkins was 13th among interior defenders in pass rush win rate and had a blistering 12.4 percent pressure rate. In addition to a career-high nine sacks, he had 62 pressures, elevating his game in a contract year with the Dolphins.
The Bengals are running out of time to splurge on free agents. With Joe Burrow starting to get into the real money of this five-year, $275 million contract extension and Ja'Marr Chase eligible to sign an extension this offseason, they will have to tighten the purse strings soon.
But the goal for 2024 is going to be to remind people that they are a Super Bowl contender. Adding Wilkins to the middle of this defense would help get them back to that level after injuries rendered 2023 a tough season.
9. Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Danielle Hunter, Minnesota Vikings
Cap Space: $51.8 million
Projected Market Value: Three years, $60.1 million
The Cardinals will not take the next step on defense unless they have a better pass rush. They were one of the least productive pass-rushing teams in the league last season, registering just 33 sacks and a pressure percentage of 17.1 percent.
Danielle Hunter has age (he'll be 30 in October) and injury history (missed all of 2020 with a neck injury and suffered a torn pec in 2021) working against him, but the production is undeniable. Hunter had half as many sacks as the Cardinals' entire defense in 2023 with 16.5.
Hunter was constantly in the backfield for the Vikings and has now played two full seasons since his last major injury. That should give teams a bit more confidence to hand Hunter the bag if he does hit the open market.
In the Cardinals' case, bringing in Hunter would give them a defensive cornerstone. Gannon got the job after running a great Eagles defense, but they also had one of the deepest collections of pass-rushers in the league.
He has to start building that in Arizona, and Hunter is the kind of versatile pass-rusher he could build around.
10: Las Vegas Raiders: QB Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Cap Space: $47.9 million
Projected Market Value: Three years, $118.1 million
The Las Vegas Raiders have only been to the playoffs twice since losing the Super Bowl in 2002. They haven't won a playoff game in that time span.
Antonio Pierce had the Raiders defense playing at a high level last season and they finished the year 8-9. That's an incredibly successful season given that they went through a coaching change in the middle of the season and were starting a fourth-round rookie quarterback in Aidan O'Connell.
That all speaks to how close the Raiders are to playing at a high level. They just need a more solid answer at the quarterback position.
Kirk Cousins might never win a Super Bowl, but he's proved time and again that he is good enough to get a team to the playoffs. The torn Achilles that he suffered in October does cast a shadow over his free agency, but he had 2,331 yards, 18 passing touchdowns and five interceptions through eight games when he suffered the injury.
The Raiders would probably love to add a quarterback in this year's draft, but that's going to be tough to do without an aggressive move up the draft board. They pick 13th, with the Broncos and Vikings both potentially in the market for a quarterback right ahead of them.
Signing Cousins would give the Raiders a solid answer at quarterback and immediately give them a great shot at being a playoff team in Antonio Pierce's first full year as head coach.
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