Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

1 Question Every NBA Team Needs to Answer ASAP

Grant Hughes

With fewer than 20 games to play, we've officially hit the fourth quarter of the 2023-24 NBA season.

At this stage, teams would prefer to have already answered most of their pressing questions. You'd think the time for tinkering with rotations and tweaking styles would be long past. Except...we know that's not the case.

Whether gunning for a top playoff seed, pivoting into a tank or just trying to figure out how to position young players to succeed in the long term, much remains unsettled.

Here, we'll highlight an issue for every team to address between now and the end of the season. A few questions will focus on truly immediate concerns, like how to survive amid injuries, while others will take a broader view. In every case, these are situations that need resolutions sooner than later.

Atlanta Hawks: Is Trae Young Our Guy?

Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images

The Atlanta Hawks are in the midst of their longest-ever stretch without Trae Young—a time to evaluate the roster without its durable star, and maybe even ask some tough questions.

Young has made three All-Star Games, led an improbable conference finals run and topped the league in total assists twice. His abilities as a pick-and-roll ball-handler are beyond question, and he's even improved as an off-ball threat this season after spending most of his career doing virtually nothing upon giving up the rock.

The overall results of Young's six-year tenure remain disappointing. Atlanta has tried different co-stars alongside him, swapped out multiple coaches and even shaken up the front office. Despite all that, the Hawks seem further from joining the top ranks of the East than ever.

So during these next few weeks as Young recovers from surgery to his left pinky, Atlanta should make a sober evaluation of what life might be like without him.

The Hawks played all of their available cards in an effort to reach contender status—except one. Depending on how things go down the stretch, Atlanta could warm to the idea of moving on from Young, adding flexibility and building around Dejounte Murray and Jalen Johnson.

Boston Celtics: How Do We Finish Big Games?

Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images

On pace to post a win total in the mid-60s, the Boston Celtics have fewer questions to answer than any other team but the defending champion Denver Nuggets.

Speaking of which, Boston dropped its second meeting with Denver this season on March 7. The defeat was marked by cold three-point shooting (11-of-38) and yet another near miss at glory from Jayson Tatum, who couldn't connect on a wide-open corner three in the waning seconds that may have swung the game.

The Celtics also shot just 16-of-25 from the foul line, and it's worth wondering what we'd be saying about them if they'd knocked down a few more of those freebies and flipped a 115-109 loss into a statement road win.

It'd be easy to view Boston's latest loss to Denver in a positive light. A single-digit defeat stemming largely from missed foul shots isn't some great catastrophe, particularly on the road at altitude against the reigning champions. But the Celtics' late-game scoring woes were also a factor, and that's long been a bugaboo of theirs in big games.

The question for the Celtics, then, is simple: How do they get over the hump in the biggest moments?

Brooklyn Nets: Is Kevin Ollie the Solution?

Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

The interim tag attached to new head coach Kevin Ollie's title comes with built-in uncertainty. If the Brooklyn Nets were sure Ollie was the long-term answer, they could have immediately promoted and extended him on a new deal, dispensing with the whole "trial run" vibe that will attend the balance of this season.

Brooklyn didn't enter 2023-24 with championship aspirations, but former head coach Jacque Vaughn presided over a squad that slipped to 21-33 prior to his ouster. With their first-round pick headed to the Houston Rockets, that record wasn't doing the Nets any favors. So it'll be up to Ollie to prove the current roster, built around Mikal Bridges and not a whole lot else, can up its performance down the stretch.

At least Ollie won't build game plans around Ben Simmons, who's out for the season. In that sense, he'll be a step ahead of Vaughn, whose focus on the oft-injured former star reportedly irked Bridges and others on the team.

Ollie comes into the gig carrying a national championship from his time at UConn, and he'll have the benefit many assistants enjoy when moving up a spot in the coaching hierarchy. The head coach tends to be the bad cop, while top assistants, especially ones with playing experience, are the good ones. That often makes them favorites with the players.

Ironically, Vaughn was in that same position when he took over for Steve Nash last season. He's proof that when roles change, opinions do, too.

General manager Sean Marks has now named four different head coaches during his tenure, an unusually high number. Will Ollie prove he's the guy who'll stick, or will Marks have to find a fifth this offseason?

Charlotte Hornets: What Can LaMelo and Miller Do Together?

Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images

LaMelo Ball hasn't played since Jan. 26, has no timetable for a return and isn't exactly being rushed back by a Charlotte Hornets franchise that seems to understand the value of bottoming out.

It'd still be nice to see how he fits with Brandon Miller.

Don't be swayed by the occasional hot take suggesting Miller, who'll make an All-Rookie team at 21, is a better building block than Ball, who was an All-Star at 20. This isn't an either/or situation.

Charlotte took Miller at No. 2 in part because he made more sense next to Ball than point guard Scoot Henderson. Whether Miller winds up being a better player than Henderson is uncertain, but the game he's flashed this year—stellar defense, reliable shot-creation and potentially premium spot-up shooting—should fit like a dream next to Ball.

The Hornets are under new ownership and management, and they'll likely have a new head coach next season if the typical trend of freshly installed executives hiring their preferred coaches holds. This is a time of change and uncertainty—in a mostly good way. But Charlotte will be better positioned to make tough choices throughout the roster if it gets a look at Ball and Miller together.

Chicago Bulls: Are We in the Patrick Williams Business?

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

You'd think four years and 175 starts would be enough time for the Chicago Bulls to determine whether Patrick Williams is worth keeping around on a second contract, but the outlook for the No. 4 pick in the 2020 draft has never been murkier.

Williams is out for the year following foot surgery, capping his season at 43 games. He also lost all but 17 contests to injury in 2021-22, further complicating the evaluation process.

Obviously, this latest injury will keep Williams from showing the Bulls anything down the stretch. So in some sense, his future could be determined by what his replacements do over the next few weeks. Then again, Chicago doesn't have a single bankable combo forward anywhere else on the roster, unless you view soon-to-be free agent DeMar DeRozan as an option.

Williams has shown flashes of excellent defense, and he's a 41.0 percent shooter from deep on low volume. Are those skills enough to offset the total zeroes he brings as a rebounder and passer? Can the Bulls find anyone else internally who projects as a replacement if Williams leaves in restricted free agency? Will another team even make him a decent offer given his track record and health history?

Four years in, Williams is still something of a mystery. The Bulls need to decide if the wisest course would be to let somebody else try to solve him next season.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Is Evan Mobley Ready?

Brian Sevald/NBAE via Getty Images

If the 2024 playoffs end the same way the 2023 edition did for the Cleveland Cavaliers, no one will care about their valiant surge up the standings earlier this year. Donovan Mitchell's development as a passer will be forgotten. Jarrett Allen's dalliance with All-Defensive-level play will fade into obscurity.

Yes, the Cavs brought in Max Strus' shooting to better space the floor against opponents who'll mimic the 2022-23 New York Knicks' cram-the-lane strategy. And yes, Georges Niang and Sam Merrill will help in that effort as well.

Ultimately, though, the Cavs' fate may rest on Evan Mobley's shoulders. And his ankle, technically. The sprain he suffered on March 5 could cost him at least a week.

Mobley's third year has progressed a lot like his second, which is to say it's been marked by marginal growth in key areas but hasn't featured the breakout everyone wants. He's upped his assist rate, is taking over half of his shots inside three feet for the first time ever, and is on pace for an easy career high in defensive rebound rate.

Last postseason, the Knicks bullied Mobley, showed him size inside and dared him to either make quick decisions as a roller or finish through physicality at close range. He failed on all counts. Those growth areas we highlighted above suggest Mobley is better prepared to overcome the challenges ahead, but it'd still be nice to see the Cavs use the rest of this season to focus on testing him.

Spam some pick-and-rolls, force Mobley to process actions quickly and encourage him to finish with force. If he can do those things between now and April, maybe Cleveland's season will last until at least May.

Dallas Mavericks: Can Luka Dončić Lead by Example?

Tim Heitman/Getty Images

The seven-game winning streak that had some wondering whether the Dallas Mavericks could climb into the West's top four feels like it happened years ago. Undone by a defense that can't get stops but can surrender corner threes in bunches, the Mavs look nothing like the championship contender head coach Jason Kidd told reporters they were trying to build.

The Athletic's Tim Cato highlighted how Dončić, despite playing what feels like a bystander's role designed to keep him out of the action, is still largely culpable for Dallas' dreadful defensive rating since the All-Star break.

Dončić's ineffectiveness on defense isn't the only reason for Dallas' disheartening about-face, but it's one that warrants discussion. As does his habit of letting emotion take him out of the game.

Clearly frustrated during a blowout loss to the Indiana Pacers on March 5, Dončić was caught by cameras chucking a water bottle on the sideline. In some cases, that'd be a positive sign, an indicator Dončić is fed up and ready to do the little things as a tone-setter and defender. But the outburst came on the heels of Dončić pouting after a missed layup. Head down as he jogged up the floor, he didn't see the backcourt deflection generated by a hustling Daniel Gafford as the ball bounced right in front of him. Had Donćić not been dwelling on his mistake, he would have easily recovered the ball just a few feet from the bucket.

Frustration is a useful tool if it spurs change. Dallas needs Dončić to channel his into better effort on D and more focus on leadership.

Denver Nuggets: Is the Rotation Deep Enough?

AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post

You know you're short on real problems when the postseason viability of seventh and eighth men rates as a pressing concern. Such is life for the defending champion Denver Nuggets, who've moseyed into the running for the top seed in the West without seeming to sweat.

Denver has known all year that Peyton Watson and Christian Braun would need to be ready for playoff action. Bruce Brown Jr. and Jeff Green left over the summer, opening up minutes for both second-year options. Defensively, Braun and Watson are both good to go. The former flies all over the floor and impacts the game on the boards, while the latter is a shot-swatting menace.

Neither, though, are surefire offensive options. Braun is hitting 34.2 percent of his threes but rarely takes them, and the ultra-bouncy Watson is shooting worse (64.0 percent vs. 72.2 percent) at point-blank range this season than last.

That's less of an issue if you assume Nikola Jokić will be on the floor for 40 postseason minutes per game spoon-feeding Braun, Watson and everyone else. But the Nuggets are still facing what'll likely be a second straight deep playoff run, and that comes with fatigue. If Braun and Watson can turn up the dial over Denver's remaining games, particularly on offense, the Nuggets will feel a lot better about trusting them for 15-20 high-leverage playoff minutes per game.

Detroit Pistons: Can Monty Williams Play the Right Guys?

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Alternate, harsher phrasing: Will head coach Monty Williams ever quit screwing around with lineups that make no sense and don't matter to the Detroit Pistons' future?

All-bench groups, a favorite of Williams' for much of the year, are a source of near-universal derision among Pistons fans. But that's only the beginning when it comes to the frustrating personnel choices that have defined this season.

Killian Hayes (since cut) got starts and major minutes ahead of Jaden Ivey for far too long, Cade Cunningham often spent alarmingly protracted stretches on the bench, and Ausar Thompson logged too much time surrounded by other non-shooters who made it more difficult for him to be his best self.

Williams has professed a commitment to playing Ivey, Cunningham, Thompson and Jalen Duren together more often. Better late than never, but it should have been the original plan in October.

Detroit has young talent, but we're nearing the end of what feels like a wasted season, and it's still not clear how well any of it fits together.

Play the youth, support them with three-and-D role players like Quentin Grimes and Simone Fontecchio and endure the growing pains. Due largely to Williams' lineup decisions, Detroit hasn't just lost a ton of games this season. It has also lost valuable time to evaluate its core.

Golden State Warriors: How to Trim the Turnover Deficit?

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

The Golden State Warriors have had turnover issues for almost the entirety of their dynastic run, finishing better than 16th in turnover percentage just once, when they were 12th way back in 2014-15, Steve Kerr's first year in charge.

They've been in the bottom 10 in turnover rate five years running, but something even worse has happened to compound the issue this year: They've stopped forcing opponents to get similarly sloppy.

Golden State's opponent turnover rate ranks just 24th, which is its worst showing since 2012-13. This is a rare condition for a good team; the Warriors are the only squad with a winning record that ranks in the bottom 10 in both its own turnover percentage and opponent turnover percentage. In short, the Dubs virtually never win the possession battle and have to rely on superhuman shooting and a defense that has little margin for error.

Some of the offensive issues stem from an innate recklessness that has always accompanied teams led by Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Some owes to opponents having 10-plus years of familiarity with Golden State's sets and preferred actions. On the other end, a general lack of athleticism and length (Jonathan Kuminga excluded) makes it hard for the Warriors to speed up opponents and force mistakes.

Between Kuminga, Green, Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II and Brandin Podziemski, the Warriors can put disruptive groups on the floor. But those units have a hard time scoring and a harder time taking care of the ball. If Golden State can't find a way to value its own possessions while also mucking up the opposition's, it'll be brutally tough to escape the Play-In round.

Houston Rockets: Is Jalen Green a Keeper?

Kate Frese/NBAE via Getty Images

Jalen Green is still just 22, and the same top-flight athleticism that got him drafted second overall in 2021 continues to at least hint at a high ceiling. That said, Green's profile through nearly three years of work is that of a single-position, score-only guard who doesn't put the ball in the basket efficiently.

That's...not exactly cornerstone stuff.

Green's 52.5 true shooting percentage is miles below the league average, and he's not making progress as a floor-reader or defender. If the Rockets were still in the fledgling stages of their rebuild, or if they didn't have better options waiting in the wings, Green might get more time to prove himself.

But Amen Thompson may already be a better all-around contributor due to his defense, playmaking, rebounding and transition impact. Cam Whitmore is flashing similar upside.

The book isn't shut on Green, but it's far from ideal when a top pick in his third year is getting outshined by a pair of rookies. With his extension eligibility coming this summer, the Rockets need to decide whether Green is a key part of the future. Or, rather, Green needs to do something to counterbalance the growing pile of evidence that says he's not.

Indiana Pacers: Can We Secure the Sixth Seed?

Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images

The Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks are non-threats among potential East Play-In teams. Missing stars, well below .500 and possessing negative point differentials on the season, they're just playing out the string, whether they know it (like Atlanta) or not (like the perennially delusional Bulls).

The Miami Heat almost certainly don't care how they get into the postseason, having proved last year that they can make it all the way to the Finals via the Play-In round. The Philadelphia 76ers are clinging to life with Joel Embiid out and could start eyeing 2024-25 if their slide continues.

That leaves the Indiana Pacers as the most motivated of the East's lower-rung playoff teams. Their relative inexperience and offense-only makeup won't scare the top-seeded Boston Celtics or former champion Milwaukee Bucks, the current first and second seeds. But if the Pacers can squeeze into that No. 6 spot and avoid the Play-In altogether, they'd have a fighting chance against the beleaguered New York Knicks, similarly inexperienced Orlando Magic or even the Cleveland Cavaliers, against whom they're 2-0 this season.

Only Milwaukee and the Charlotte Hornets have tougher remaining schedules than the Pacers among East teams, so the climb to No. 6 won't be easy. The potential payoff would be worth the effort.

LA Clippers: What's Up with Paul George?

Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images

When Kawhi Leonard declined his player option and agreed to a three-year, $149.7 million extension in January, it seemed certain Paul George would quickly follow suit. The two have been a package deal since the 2020 offseason, when the LA Clippers executed a blockbuster trade to bring George over from the Oklahoma City Thunder with the understanding that his arrival was a condition of Leonard signing as a free agent.

So it's at least a little strange that George has yet to decline his own player option and sign a similar extension to line up his tenure with Leonard's.

This isn't cause for panic. In early February, ESPN's Brian Windhorst reported on The Hoop Collective that George and the Clippers were in talks, and that a deal like Leonard's would eventually get done. Failing that, George could still pick up his option and re-sign in free agency during the summer of 2025.

Still, with LA surging in the wake of James Harden's arrival and a title shot looking more realistic than it has for most of the George-Leonard era, you'd think all parties involved would be happy to solidify their commitment with an extension.

Are the Clippers unsure George is worthy of the same deal they gave Kawhi? Is George seeking more years or dollars than his historically less durable teammate?

Until the Clippers lock things down with their other star, this will remain an issue worth monitoring.

Los Angeles Lakers: Can We Ever Beat the Nuggets?

Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Every Western Conference team should be concerned with beating the Denver Nuggets—at least the ones with even semi-realistic aspirations of reaching the Finals. Wherever the defending champs wind up in the standings, they'll be the most imposing obstacle in the West.

For the Los Angeles Lakers, though, Denver's seeming indomitability is getting scary.

Including last spring's 4-0 sweep in the conference finals, the Nuggets have taken eight straight from LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Co. The latest of those left L.A. without many answers.

"We're getting closer as far as the first, I guess, 42 minutes," Davis told The Athletic's Jovan Buha after a 124-114 loss to Denver on March 2. "Or you can even say 44 minutes, right? And then that last four minutes is just them getting to what they get to."

Finding a clear fifth closer to join James, Davis, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura would help. But ultimately, the Lakers need to find ways to stop Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray from cutting them to ribbons late in games. That's a tough task, and it's one the Lakers haven't accomplished for almost a year.

Memphis Grizzlies: Is It Time to Move on from Ziaire Williams?

Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images

Ziaire Williams' season may be over due to hip and back injuries, which means he's out of chances to prove he belongs in the Memphis Grizzlies' big-picture plans.

The 22-year-old forward has shown brief flashes of potential in his three seasons, but injuries and a general inability to put the ball in the basket have combined to make the No. 10 pick in the 2021 draft look like a bust. Williams is still a rangy 6'9" and has the physical profile of the ultra-valuable two-way combo forward, but he's clearly been surpassed by less heralded teammates.

With his extension eligibility arriving this summer, Memphis could soon decide Williams is most valuable as a trade chip.

Just 19, second-rounder GG Jackson has soundly outshot Williams this season. Two-way addition Vince Williams is only 23, and he already looks like a potential starter or high-end rotation piece. His defense and distribution earned him a standard three-year deal earlier this season.

Between those two, a healthy Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane, plus Santi Aldama, the wing and forward minutes may not be there for Williams.

The Grizzlies aren't playing for anything, but the young players angling for Williams' place in the team's long-term outlook have everything on the line.

Miami Heat: Can We Get Some Easy Ones?

Megan Briggs/Getty Images

The Miami Heat rank dead last in location-based effective field-goal percentage, a shortcoming born of their failure to get to (and finish at) the rim. A No. 24 ranking in accuracy at point-blank range would be a problem under any circumstances, but it's especially troubling because the Heat also rank 30th in attempt frequency at the bucket.

Devotees of #heatculture will note that Miami ranked 19th and 28th, respectively, in those categories last year and that, more broadly, regular-season numbers don't matter with this team.

Maybe that's right. If any squad is going to outperform its metrics and/or find ways to win in the playoffs, we should assume it's the one that reached the Finals via the Play-In last season. Still, it'd be nice if the Heat could find ways to make things a little easier on themselves offensively.

One option: Let Duncan Robinson cook.

Milwaukee Bucks: When Will the Dame-Giannis Two-Man Game Click?

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

The Milwaukee Bucks look better overall under Doc Rivers, with the rediscovery of their top-flight defensive rating as the most welcome development. Quietly, though, Milwaukee has regressed on the other end. The Bucks rank 20th in offensive efficiency under Rivers, down from second during Adrian Griffin's tenure.

More specifically, the interplay between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard remains clunky. Expected by many to elevate the Bucks' attack to new heights, the pick-and-roll game between the two superstars simply hasn't worked.

Though it's a team-wide stat, it's telling that Milwaukee scores at a rate that ranks in the 10th percentile when the roll man finishes plays with a shot, assist or turnover. Giannis, individually, is in the 57th percentile in points per play as a roll man. That's not awful, but this is Giannis we're talking about. You'd think the most dominant downhill athlete in the league could be more effective with a head of steam against a compromised interior defense.

Lillard can do a lot of damage keeping the ball himself, and much of the Bucks' late-game offense seems to center on Dame creating his own looks with the use of a screen. But it'll always feel like Milwaukee is leaving money on the table until it figures out how to unlock Dame and Giannis in tandem.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Can We Score Enough?

Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

Anthony Edwards is basically built to play hero ball, and he's had more than his share of late-game savior moments. But the Minnesota Timberwolves risk major disappointment down the stretch of the regular season and in the playoffs if they can't find a way to score more consistently.

That task will only get tougher with Karl-Anthony Towns out for several weeks following surgery to address a torn meniscus.

Though they own the league's top defense, the Wolves are right in the middle of the pack on the other end, ranking 17th in offensive efficiency. Turnovers are a major factor in Minnesota's struggle to score, and Edwards is culpable for a good portion of the team's No. 25 ranking in giveaway rate.

It also doesn't help matter that the Wolves, despite playing two bigs most of the time, are only 22nd in offensive rebound rate.

When you produce as many one- and zero-shot possessions as Minnesota does, it's basically impossible to win the possession game. The result is a vanishingly slim margin for error on offense that basically requires the Wolves to shoot the lights out.

That's worked well enough so far, and the elite defense means the Wolves can still win when they kick the ball all over the gym. But against tougher playoff competition, all these missed offensive opportunities could be costly.

New Orleans Pelicans: What's The Best Closing Lineup?

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Barring some overly creative tinkering, CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson will be on the floor in the highest-leverage situations. The New Orleans Pelicans just need to figure out who that fifth closer should be.

Jonas Valančiūnas has played more with the Pels' top four players than anyone else, but lineups with the hulking center alongside McCollum, Jones, Ingram and Williamson have been outscored by 1.6 points per 100 possessions and have struggled to get stops. Swap in Larry Nance Jr. for Valančiūnas, and the net rating swings to a plus-3.6 but features a scoring rate that ranks in the 21st percentile. Plus, that group has only seen 202 possessions together—not a large enough sample from which to draw firm conclusions.

The lack of a clear closing center in New Orleans has been a known issue for as long as this core has been together, so much so that it raises the possibility of a non-big joining the core four to form a sell-out-for-offense quintet. Trey Murphy III is the logical inclusion there thanks to his length and deep range, but New Orleans has barely even looked at that option.

With Murphy as the fifth man, the Pels have produced a minus-25.2 net rating across just 52 possessions.

Based on the information they've gleaned so far, the Pelicans should probably favor Nance over their other choices. That shouldn't stop them from experimenting down the stretch.

New York Knicks: Can We Get Healthy?

Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

This isn't a question the New York Knicks can answer immediately, but given the spate of injuries currently kicking them down the standings, there's no more pressing issue than health.

Jalen Brunson is the latest key player to go down, with a knee contusion knocking the All-Star out for a handful of recent games. He joined the entire starting frontcourt—OG Anunoby, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson—on the sidelines.

A couple of positives have emerged from the Knicks' rough stretch. Miles McBride is emerging in a larger role, and Isaiah Hartenstein has looked good enough (when not nursing his own Achilles injury) to spur questions about whether he, not Robinson, should be the top option at center going forward.

New York certainly shouldn't rush any of its recovering starters back early, even with the Orlando Magic recently climbing over them into the No. 4 spot in the East. At the same time, the Knicks haven't seen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Anunoby, Randle and Robinson on the floor for a single second. In fact, the first four sans Robinson have only shared 374 possessions (with exclusively strong results!).

The Knicks made major changes this season, and it'd be best not to go into the playoffs wondering how the remade roster will function. Even if it's only for a handful of games late in the year, New York needs to get its best players on the floor together.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Is the Rebounding Issue Fatal?

Alika Jenner/Getty Images

It's officially time to talk about the Oklahoma City Thunder as title contenders, which is both a major positive and an opportunity to pick the tiniest of nits. The scrutiny has to get more intense when a team is at OKC's level, because you can bet postseason opponents are going to find those tiny frailties and exploit them.

Speaking of tiny, the Thunder's generally undersized lineups are getting killed on the glass at alarming rates.

Oklahoma City does almost everything well, ranking among the league's top five in offensive and defensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage and turnover rate. But teams that rebound as poorly as the Thunder do are basically excluded from serious contention. You have to go back to the 2019 Toronto Raptors to find a champion whose rebounding stood out as a problem, and that team was nowhere near as bad as OKC on the boards. Toronto was 22nd in offensive rebound rate and 18th on the defensive glass, and those full-season numbers were actually much better after deadline deals added size to the rotation.

The Thunder are currently among the bottom three in both offensive and defensive rebound rate, which means they'll have to sustain their exceptionally high effective field-goal percentage while keeping their turnovers to a minimum. Otherwise, they'll never offset the possessions they're losing on both ends.

Maybe OKC is just built differently. Nobody should feel comfortable betting against a team with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. But if these guys don't shore up their rebounding, recent history says a deep playoff run isn't in the cards.

Orlando Magic: Who's the Third Option?

Gary Bassing/NBAE via Getty Images

Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have been the Orlando Magic's two main sources of offense all year, and that's not going to change as the postseason approaches. But the lack of a reliable third scoring option stands out as a glaring issue for a Magic team that defends with the best of them but ranks just 23rd in offensive efficiency.

If you're going by points per game, Jalen Suggs is technically Orlando's third banana. If you focus on the trickle-down value of spacing and gravity, Wendell Carter Jr.'s 42.2 percent three-point shooting from the center spot makes him a key tertiary piece. Cole Anthony basically exists to score, but he's trending all the way down to the low 30s in three-point percentage. After that trio, the choices get unpalatable in a hurry.

This may be a question without an answer, as none of the Magic's seven most-used lineups score at a rate above the league average. All of them, incidentally, defend well above that mark. Perhaps we're just seeing the tradeoff of a team whose non-star talent skews strongly toward the defensive end.

Suggs could increase his three-point volume, Anthony could up his hit rate and find himself getting more minutes with the starters or Carter could take on a higher-usage role against certain matchups. Maybe for Orlando go make real postseason noise, all of those things will have to happen. Somebody, or several somebodies, need to step up in the scoring and shot-creation departments.

As it stands, the Magic's offense looks very likely to let its elite defense down.

Philadelphia 76ers: Should Joel Embiid Come Back This Season?

Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images

Per ESPN's Katie George, Joel Embiid has been doing on-court work since the first week of March as he tries to return from surgery on a torn meniscus (h/t Austin Krell of ESPN). That's a positive development for the former MVP front-runner, but with the Philadelphia 76ers hit by other injuries and sliding out of the East's top six, it's not clear whether Embiid should be aiming to return at all this season.

Granted, teams with in-prime MVPs should operate as if there's no tomorrow. But the Sixers are positioning themselves to face a brutal postseason path, and Embiid hasn't typically held up physically even in the best of circumstances. He almost certainly won't be at full strength if he makes it back, which could potentially lead to further injury.

Philadelphia has operated with dueling mindsets this year, trying to maximize Embiid's prime by competing in the present while keeping an eye on an offseason that will see them wield immense cap space. If Embiid's recovery hits a snag, the decision to shut him down will be an easy one. But if he looks like himself in a hypothetical late-season tune-up stretch before the playoffs, it'll be much harder for Philly to know what the right decision is.

Phoenix Suns: What's Up with the Fourth Quarter?

AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post

For a team with two high-end closers in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker (and a third on the occasional nights when Bradley Beal is healthy), the Phoenix Suns are unfathomably terrible late in games.

The numbers are staggering, as the Suns have a league-worst minus-14.7 net rating in fourth quarters. For a sense of scale, if Phoenix played that poorly across entire games, it'd be getting blown out by 60-plus points every night. Numbers that big practically beg for deeper analysis to reveal some kind of anomaly, but we're talking about a sample size of over 700 minutes. Either the Suns are the unluckiest late-game team in the league, or they've got some serious issues to fix before the playoffs.

Relatively speaking, the Suns' minus-7.5 net rating in clutch situations, which ranks 19th, feels like a ray of hope.

A thin supporting cast, Jusuf Nurkić's iffy viability as a defensive anchor and the opposition's ability to key in on Phoenix's stars could all be part of the reason an otherwise excellent team comes completely undone in the final 12 minutes. Whatever the cause, the Suns have to find a solution.

Fourth quarters often mirror the physical intensity and tactical precision of the playoffs. That should deeply concern the Suns.

Portland Trail Blazers: What Does Scoot Need?

Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images

Scoot Henderson has been sidelined since Feb. 15 with an adductor injury, but when he comes back, the Portland Trail Blazers need to focus all of their attention on evaluating what the point guard prospect needs to succeed.

To say Henderson's rookie year has been a disappointment would be an understatement. A player many viewed as having the talent to go No. 1 overall in most drafts (thanks, Wemby!) started the season behind the eight-ball because of injury and never quite found his form.

Henderson is shooting 37.5 percent from the field and 31.0 percent from deep while turning the ball over 5.4 times per 100 possessions. Jamal Tinsley and Jalen Suggs are the only other rookies to log at least 1,000 minutes with numbers that bad.

Portland has had myriad injuries this season, which makes parsing the lineup data for answers tricky. Lineups with Henderson and Malcolm Brogdon, who shares some of the playmaking load, sometimes produce good results, but not if Jerami Grant is on the floor with them. Duop Reath's spacing sometimes helps Portland win Scoot's minutes, but toss Matisse Thybulle and Toumani Camara out there with them, and the offense craters.

That's to say nothing of figuring out how Henderson fits with Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe, a critical trio that has only shared the floor for 133 possessions of (gulp) minus-38.4 net-rating results.

The door on Henderson becoming a superstar isn't closed. But Portland needs to figure out who should be on the court with him to help him walk through it.

Sacramento Kings: Keon Ellis or Davion Mitchell?

Alysa Rubin/Clarkson Creative/Getty Images

Davion Mitchell's signature skill is on-ball defense against opposing point guards. It's probably the reason he's still in the league, as undersized guards who can't shoot (career 31.7 percent from three) and aren't high-end pick-and-roll operators don't tend to last very long.

Mitchell's offensive struggles are exactly the kind that postseason opponents exploit, and you can sense the Sacramento Kings' awareness of the issue. Mitchell's minutes have trended down in each of his three years and sit at a career-low 13.5 per game this season.

With fellow backup Keon Ellis making an impact in Sacramento's statement win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on March 1, it's worth wondering whether Mitchell's shrinking and inconsistent spot in the rotation is about to disappear. Mitchell scored a season-high 16 points in that win, hitting seven of his eight shots on the night, but it was Ellis who had an effect on defense, bringing physicality and swiping four steals

Assuming Mitchell won't score that efficiently going forward, Ellis' disruption makes Mitchell's role even likelier to diminish.

That said, Mitchell is as tenacious as they come. His intensity can speed up opponents, force mistakes and change games.

The Kings probably can't play both reserve guards in the games that truly matter. With Malik Monk capable of running the offense, it's possible the answer to "Mitchell or Ellis?" will be "none of the above."

San Antonio Spurs: Do We Have a Point Guard?

Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images

Based on how things have gone this season—from Jeremy Sochan unsuccessfully manning the position in the early going to Tre Jones shooting 31.3 percent from deep—it'd seem the answer to the question above is a resounding "no."

Obviously, everything about the San Antonio Spurs centers on Victor Wembanyama, whose game is blossoming in ways that actually make it more difficult to figure out how best to build out the roster around him. But a point guard who can space the floor, collapse the defense by driving and generally create clean looks is going to matter, regardless of what form Wembanyama's superstardom takes.

Second-year guard Blake Wesley is getting increased run lately, and he needs to show he's got enough game to stick in the league at all—not ideal for a recent first-rounder. Beyond him, San Antonio needs to get extended looks at Malakhi Branham and Julian Champagnie. Both of those two possess playmaking chops and have seen their minutes increase in recent weeks, though neither is a true point guard.

Just because Wemby looks like a player who'll be able to do everything on his own doesn't mean he should have to. The Spurs should know Jones is little more than a stopgap who'll top out as a backup on a decent team. They should focus all of their non-Wemby attention on finding out if anyone else on the current roster can facilitate with any reliability.

Toronto Raptors: What's Immanuel Quickley Worth?

Mark Blinch/NBAE via Getty Images

The Toronto Raptors didn't acquire Immanuel Quickley as a rental, so the presumption should be that they'll pay what it costs to retain him on an extension this summer.

Then again, it's not like Quickley has exploded into stardom as a full-time starter since coming over via trade from the New York Knicks.

Though his counting stats are all up along with his minutes per game, Quickley's true shooting percentage has dipped below the league average, and his turnover rate is up above where it was in a second-unit gig with the Knicks. Those kinds of changes tend to accompany a role increase, but they probably don't make the Raptors more enthusiastic about Quickley's reported expectation of a five-year, $135 million deal.

Toronto can split the difference between that figure and the offer Quickley didn't accept from the Knicks, which averaged around $18 million per season, according to HoopsHype's Michael Scotto. More drastically, the Raps could hold off on an extension entirely, ask Quickley to prove himself over a full season and let him go into restricted free agency in 2025. That might ruffle some feathers in Quickley's camp, but it illustrates the level of control Toronto enjoys.

With the Play-In seemingly out of reach, the Raptors' stretch-run focus should be on gauging Quickley's long-term value.

Utah Jazz: What Can Taylor Hendricks Do?

Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images

Scouting reports leading up to the 2024 draft provide some sense of Utah Jazz rookie Taylor Hendricks' game. In theory, he's a versatile defender across multiple frontcourt positions—a mobile athlete with legitimate shot-blocking prowess. On the other end, the 6'9" product of Central Florida has the makings of a perimeter stroke that could stretch defenses and open up lanes for teammates.

Though he's played significantly more after the trade deadline, much of our actual on-court information on Hendricks still comes from G League games. The 14.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.2 blocks he averaged in 13 games for the Salt Lake City Stars are encouraging, but they can't tell the Jazz if Hendricks is more like Bobby Portis, Jerami Grant, Pascal Siakam or none of the above.

That's why the rest of this season matters so much—both for the Jazz and for Hendricks.

If the rookie makes an impact on both ends, Utah can go forward confident in him and fellow first-year player Keyonte George bolstering a rotation led by Lauri Markkanen. If Hendricks looks overwhelmed in an increased role, the Jazz will head into the offseason less certain about their needs.

Washington Wizards: Is Deni Avdija a Cornerstone?

Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images

If you haven't been paying attention to the Washington Wizards lately (and why would you?), you're probably unaware of what's been going on with fourth-year forward Deni Avdija.

Though interrupted for three games by a heel injury, the physical forward has been on a tear over the past several weeks.

It's always difficult to judge players' performances on go-nowhere teams like the Wizards since cellar-dwelling status means games are typically played without stakes, but Avdija isn't just piling up empty stats against disinterested defenses. He's coming into his own as a two-way force and, critically, adding new skills.

He averaged 14.0 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists on a 51.0/47.1/78.0 shooting split in 15 January games while taking on more playmaking duties than ever before. Then, in nine February contests, Avdija upped his usage rate even more, posted a 66.3 true shooting percentage and averaged 20.1 points and 9.3 rebounds in 33.9 minutes per game.

Even if they've come in a mostly noncompetitive environment, those are the two most promising months of the 23-year-old's career—hints that in addition to being a stellar and highly physical defender, Avdija might also be the kind of do-it-all ball-handling forward teams covet.

Washington wisely inked Avdija to a four-year, $55 million extension prior to this season, and that deal was a bargain when everyone assumed he was merely a solid role-player.

The stretch run of this season could reveal whether Avdija is much more than that.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate entering games played March 8. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.

   

Read 175 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)