Heading into 2024 NFL free agency, which will officially begin on March 13, running back is one of the market's most intriguing positions. Several starting-caliber backs are slated to become available, and the majority of them may make it to market.

A year ago, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs all received the franchise tag, but each of them underwhelmed for one reason or another in the regular season. They're likely to join an already deep free-agent RB pool—according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, none of the top backs is expected to receive the tag this offseason—and teams may be even more eager to dive in than they were in 2023.

The 2023 draft featured top-tier prospects like Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. This year, Florida State's Trey Benson projects as the top RB, and he's only the 49th-ranked prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's big board.

With all of this in mind, let's dive into six of the biggest names on the upcoming running-back market and make a few predictions based on factors like team needs, scheme fit, past production and projected cap space.

Saquon Barkley

The New York Giants are highly unlikely to give Barkley the franchise tag for a second successive season. Injuries were again an issue for the 27-year-old in 2023, and according to Paul Schwartz of the New York Post, Barkley is "someone they likely view as in decline."

Yet, Barkley has remained New York's most consistent offensive playmaker when healthy, and he topped 1,200 scrimmage yards over 14 games this past season. The Giants are also unlikely to find a clear and obvious upgrade this offseason, and they have kept the line of communication with Barkley open.

"[General manager Joe] Schoen spoke briefly with Barkley a few days after the season but nothing of substance came out of that, other than relaying that the team and Barkley's representatives would meet at the NFL Scouting Combine," Schwartz wrote.

The Giants, presumably, would love to have Barkley back on a deal that offers them some injury protection—something the tag would not do. While Barkley may be interested in testing the market, this isn't the best offseason to do it because of the talented player pool.

Financially, returning to New York on an incentive-laden deal might be the best financial option for Barkley in 2024. An incentive-laden deal that keeps Barkley under contract through age 30 but gives the Giants the option of an early out—with most of the guaranteed money due in the first year—would make sense for both sides.

Contract Prediction: Barkley agrees to a three-year, $27 million extension before the start of free agency.

Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler has carved out a reputation as one of the NFL's top dual-threat running backs in recent years. He led the NFL in touchdowns from scrimmage in both 2021 (20) and 2022 (18) but was hampered by an ankle injury this past season. He also saw a dip in rushing efficiency this past season, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry.

Ekeler knows that with free agency looming, his 2023 struggles came at a very inopportune time.

"I know I'm the same player," Ekeler said, per ESPN's Kris Rhim. "But that doesn't matter when it comes to the contracts."

According to Schefter, the Los Angeles Chargers are expected to let Ekeler test free agency. With the Ekeler set to turn 29 in May, a short-term "prove-it" deal may be the most likely outcome.

The unknown is which team will be willing to take a chance on Ekeler. A team familiar with his skill set could be the most logical.

The Denver Broncos could be an ideal landing spot for Ekeler if they can create the cap space to sign him. Denver has to sort out Russell Wilson's future, and it is projected to be $13 million over the cap. However, Ekeler could fill the dual-threat role that Alvin Kamara filled under head coach Sean Payton with the New Orleans Saints.

The Broncos also employ Joe Lombardi as their offensive coordinator, and Lombardi held the same title with the Chargers during Ekeler's standout 2021 and 2022 campaigns.

Ekeler would be a fit in Denver and could help boost an offense that ranked 26th overall in 2023.

Contract Prediction: Ekeler signs a two-year, $13.5 million deal in free agency.

Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry may have turned 30 in January, but he remains a quality starter. He earned another Pro Bowl nod while topping 1,300 scrimmage yards and showing that his breakaway ability still exists.

Henry's long run in 2023 went for 69 yards.

According to Schefter, the Titans won't use the tag on their longtime ball-carrier. However, that doesn't mean Tennessee doesn't want Henry back.

"He knows where we are, and we know where he is," Titans general manager Ran Carthon said Tuesday, per ESPN's Turron Davenport. "We'll be well positioned to do whatever we need to do."

Tennessee is rebuilding, though, and Henry appears open to exploring options that might help him reach the Super Bowl.

"I want a ring, so, wherever that comes and whoever can help get close to that, that's what we're going to do," Henry said, per Davenport.

The Baltimore Ravens, who reached the AFC title game in 2023 and could lose both Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins in free agency, could give Henry that opportunity. Henry's combination of power and burst would make a dangerous complement to Lamar Jackson in the backfield, and Baltimore's window is wide open.

Baltimore is interested in expanding its backfield this offseason.

"I think you'll see us make a couple of acquisitions along the way," general manager Eric DeCosta told reporters.

While the Ravens are projected to have just $16.5 million in cap space, that shouldn't prevent them from offering a back-loaded contract at a fair market price.

Contract Prediction: Henry signs a two-year, $20 million deal in free agency.

Josh Jacobs

Jacobs had a down year in 2023. He missed time with a quad injury and averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. It's entirely fair to wonder how much Jacobs' heavy usage the previous season—when he recorded a league-high 393 touches for 2,053 scrimmage yards—impacted Jacobs this past year.

Though Jacobs has struggled in two of the past three seasons, he's topped 1,000 rushing yards in three of the past five. At times during that stretch, he has performed like one of the league's best every-down backs.

According to Pro Football Talk's Michael David Smith, the Las Vegas Raiders plan to make Jacobs a contract offer but aren't interested in using the franchise tag on him again.

Jacobs, who held out for much of the 2023 offseason before agreeing to a reworked one-year, $12 million deal, will have little reason to not at least test the market. If he does, the question will become whether Las Vegas is willing to outbid other teams for his services.

A team like the Dallas Cowboys could be interested in making Jacobs an offer that the Raiders won't match. Dallas didn't get the desired results from Pollard in 2023, and Jacobs is exactly the sort of dual-threat, every-down playmaker that the Cowboys had during the prime years of Ezekiel Elliott's career.

And while Dallas is facing a $3.2 million cap deficit, it has paths to creating cap space quickly. Extensions for Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb could lower their 2024 numbers, and releasing Michael Gallup with a post-June 1 designation would save $9.5 million in cap space.

The Raiders likely saw enough from Zamir White late in 2023 that they won't overpay to keep Jacobs.

Contract Prediction: Jacobs signs a three-year, $30 million deal in free agency.

Tony Pollard

Pollard was a Pro Bowler in 2022, and the Cowboys responded by giving him the franchise tag and parting with Elliott in 2023. However, that series of moves didn't deliver what Dallas was hoping to see.

Pollard did rush for 1,005 yards and produce 1,316 scrimmage yards, but he also averaged just 4.0 yards per carry after topping 5.0 yards per rush in each of the previous two seasons. As a team, the Cowboys ranked just 20th in yards per carry (4.1).

It's hard to envision the Cowboys bringing Pollard back at a fair market rate. It's clear that the 26-year-old is more effective as part of a committee than as a leading back, and with Rico Dowdle also scheduled to be a free agent, Dallas may prefer a player with every-down ability.

It should surprise no one to see the Cowboys make a play for Jacobs, Barkley or D'Andre Swift this offseason.

The Eagles aren't likely to overpay to keep Swift a year after letting Pro Bowler Miles Sanders walk in free agency, but they could be interested in adding a back like Pollard on a team-friendly contract.

Rather than paying Sanders, Philly traded a 2025 fourth-round pick and swapped 2023 seventh-rounders with the Detroit Lions to acquire Swift. Given Philadelphia's defensive needs, taking a budget approach to the running back position again would be sensible.

The Eagles' talented offensive line—though perhaps less so if Jason Kelce retires in the coming weeks—would offer Pollard a chance to reestablish his value with a short-term contract.

Contract Prediction: Pollard signs a one-year, $6.5 million deal in free agency.

D'Andre Swift

The Eagles are projected to have $32.5 million in cap space available, but they have to address a defense that finished 26th overall and 30th in points allowed last season. Because of this, and because of how Philadelphia handled Sanders' free-agency bid, it's hard to see Swift returning on a long-term deal.

Matching committee backs like Pollard, Edwards or Zack Moss with Kenneth Gainwell and perhaps a rookie might be the more sensible approach for Philadelphia.

Teams interested in adding the 25-year-old Swift will need to exercise some caution. He did have 1,263 scrimmage yards in 2023 while earning his first Pro Bowl nod. However, Sanders had a very similar season in 2022 before becoming a free-agent flop.

The Carolina Panthers inked Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal last offseason. He went on to tally just 586 scrimmage yards and was out of the starting lineup before midseason.

However, a team that is familiar with exactly what Swift can and cannot do on the field could still be very interested. Coincidentally, the rival Washington Commanders now employ former Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson as their assistant head coach and pass-game coordinator.

With Antonio Gibson slated to hit free agency, Washington could use a complement to Brian Robinson Jr. in their backfield. With a league-high $96.4 million in projected cap space, the Commanders can afford to fill that void in free agency.

Swift might not command the contract that Sanders got last year, but his value to a team like Washington shouldn't be far off.

Contract Prediction: Swift signs a three-year, $18 million deal in free agency.

Cap and contract information via Spotrac.