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Complete Bracket Predictions for 2024 NBA Playoffs

Greg Swartz

The start of the 2024 NBA playoffs are less than two months away as we begin to get a clearer picture of which teams are postseason-bound following the trade deadline.

While the Boston Celtics have a six-game lead for first place in the Eastern Conference, no other team should even remotely feel comfortable in their current standing. There's going to be a fierce amount of competition over the last eight weeks, especially in the West.

Based on current record, remaining strength of schedule (SOS) and other factors, here's a best guess at how a full 2024 NBA playoff bracket will look.

Note: Remaining SOS rankings via Tankathon. All stats and records accurate as of Feb. 21.

East Quarterfinals: (4) New York Knicks vs. (5) Indiana Pacers

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New York Knicks

Current Record/Seed: 33-22, 4th in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 14th overall

Injuries have halted the Knicks' rise up the East standings, after they slumped into the break losing four straight.

OG Anunoby is still sidelined following elbow surgery, and all we know for sure is that he plans to return sometime before the playoffs. The Knicks are also still waiting on the returns of Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson.

Still, as long as Jalen Brunson is wreaking havoc on defenses, New York will stay in the top-four seeds in the East. Bojan Bogdanović and Alec Burks were smart trade deadline pickups who will provide much-needed depth until other starters can return.

The Knicks won't rise any higher than No. 4 in the standings, but this is going to be a very dangerous team at full health come playoff time.

Indiana Pacers

Current Record/Seed: 31-25, 6th in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 19th overall

It's tough to get an accurate read on the Pacers, a team still trying to get Pascal Siakam acclimated with Tyrese Haliburton finally coming off a minutes restriction.

Buddy Hield has been shipped to the Philadelphia 76ers, which is going to hurt the team's overall floor-spacing as well.

This team has to prove it can still shoot after losing Hield and with Siakam playing major minutes. Indiana is shooting 42.0 percent from three in wins this season compared to just 33.2 percent during losses.

As long as the Pacers stay consistent, they should at least jump a 76ers team that is still awaiting the return of Joel Embiid.

A No. 5 seed is still a huge jump from an 11th-placed finish a season ago, although a first-round loss to the Knicks would seem inevitable.

East Quarterfinals: (3) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (6) Miami Heat

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Cleveland Cavaliers

Current Record/Seed: 36-17, 2nd in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 15th overall

No team should be happier about the current dysfunction in Milwaukee than the red-hot Cavaliers, a team that has opened up a 2.5-game lead over the Bucks for second place.

Still, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Co. are too talented to not turn things around at some point, even if the Cavs retain their high-level of play.

Cleveland still needs to prove it can be elite with its elite players on the floor, which is an unusual but real concern. The Cavs' starting five of Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen has a modest net rating of plus-5.0 this season, as lineups featuring 3-and-D role players such as Dean Wade and Isaac Okoro have actually been more effective.

The Cavs will battle Milwaukee throughout the rest of the regular season, eventually slipping to the No. 3 seed, one spot higher than they finished a year ago.

Miami Heat

Current Record/Seed: 30-25, 7th in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 27th overall

Hitting 30 wins by the All-Star break is a minor miracle for a Miami team that has seemingly had to cobble together a different starting five every night.

Breaking into the top-six seeds in the East and out of the play-in tournament will be assisted greatly by a fall from the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers.

Miami is still trying to figure out the best way to utilize Terry Rozier, whose efficiency has plummeted following a trade from the Charlotte Hornets (12.6 points per game on 35.9 percent overall and 23.4 percent from three). Jimmy Butler is currently away from the team following the death of a family member.

We don't expect fireworks down the stretch from the Heat, although one of the NBA's easiest schedules is a welcome sight. Miami has also been as equally dangerous at home (15-13) as on the road (15-12).

Cavs-Heat would be a thrilling first-round series, as Mitchell and Butler have been two of the best playoff performers over the last decade.

East Quarterfinals: (2) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers

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Milwaukee Bucks

Current Record/Seed: 35-21, 3rd in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 3rd overall

A 3-7 record to begin the Doc Rivers era isn't great, and neither is one of the NBA's toughest schedules to close out the regular season.

So, why the projected rise in the standings?

Call it faith in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, a superstar partnership that will only get better with time.

The Bucks still possess two of the most successful lineups in all of basketball (Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Brook Lopez, Malik Beasley and Khris Middleton or Jae Crowder) and recently added Patrick Beverley via trade and Danilo Gallinari via the buyout market.

The All-Star break came at the perfect time for Rivers and the coaching staff, giving them plenty of film time to diagnose what's gone wrong thus far.

Milwaukee isn't catching the Boston Celtics, but it will eventually return to the No. 2 seed in the East.

Philadelphia 76ers

Current Record/Seed: 35-22, 5th in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 9th overall

A 6-14 record without Joel Embiid this season means a projected slide down the standings, as the MVP center will still be sidelined a few more weeks.

This fall will last all the way to the play-in tournament, as healthier versions of the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat will eventually make their way into the top six.

Assuming Embiid can return before the end of the regular season, though, this is going to be one of the most dangerous play-in tournament teams we've seen, especially with the additions of Buddy Hield and Kyle Lowry to a core of Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris.

Philly will win the first game of the tournament and claim the No. 7 seed in the East, setting up a heavyweight fight with the Bucks and former Sixers coach Rivers.

East Quarterfinals: (1) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Orlando Magic

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Boston Celtics

Current Record/Seed: 43-12, 1st in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 28th overall

No surprise here.

The Celtics have a cushy six-game lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers for first in the East, the largest gap between two teams in either conference anywhere in the standings.

Boston remains elite on both sides of the ball, traded for Xavier Tillman at the deadline for extra center insurance and possesses one of the easiest schedules in all of basketball moving forward.

Getting the No. 1 seed should be a big deal as well. Never in the Jayson Tatum era has Boston finished with the best record in the conference, not even in 2021-22 when it advanced to the NBA Finals (51-31, second to the Miami Heat).

The Celtics cruise to the top spot in the East here.

Orlando Magic

Current Record/Seed: 30-25, 8th in East

Remaining SOS Rank: 30th overall

Orlando failed to address its lack of shooting at the deadline, prioritizing internal growth over making some win-now moves to solidify its desire to return to the playoffs.

Thankfully for the Magic, only a 76ers team with Embiid should be a true threat in the play-in tournament, as they are far better than the Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets or whatever teams end up in the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds.

They are also aided by the NBA's easiest remaining schedule, with no games left against the Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets or Phoenix Suns.

Orlando finishes as a playoff team in the East, although a matchup against the Celtics will make it a short appearance.

West Quarterfinals: (4) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (5) Phoenix Suns

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Minnesota Timberwolves

Current Record/Seed: 39-16, 1st in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 20th overall

The Wolves are still (mostly) hanging on to the No. 1 seed, but don't be surprised to see them fall slightly before the playoffs begin.

Nothing against Minnesota, but there's a ton of talent at the top of the West. The Los Angeles Clippers (17-5), Phoenix Suns (16-7) and Oklahoma City Thunder (15-8) all have better records than the Wolves (15-9) since the calendar flipped to 2024.

Still, an elite defense should keep Minnesota from sliding too far, and the schedule is relatively easy as well.

A first-round matchup against the high-powered Suns isn't ideal, but the Wolves would have a huge advantage in the paint against a wing-heavy Phoenix team.

Phoenix Suns

Current Record/Seed: 33-22, 5th in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 1st in NBA

The rest of the NBA better hope the Suns' Big 3 doesn't get any prolonged stretches together before the playoffs or this is going to be a nightmare of a team to face in a seven-game series.

For now, early results are more than encouraging.

Phoenix has a net rating of plus-12.0 in 908 total possessions with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal all on the floor together. Royce O'Neale is a huge pickup who will play big minutes over the final two months as well.

The NBA's toughest schedule will prevent the Suns from rising higher than fifth in the standings, though, meaning they'll be forced to open the playoffs on the road. A 15-11 record away from the desert sparks hope.

West Quarterfinals: (3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) New Orleans Pelicans

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Denver Nuggets

Current Record/Seed: 36-19, 4th in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 23rd overall

Expecting the Nuggets to make a huge leap down the stretch knowing how important the No. 1 seed is? Think again.

While Denver isn't going to slide out of the top three spots, this isn't a team playing good enough basketball to make a big rise, either. Don't forget it actually stumbled down the stretch last year (7-8 over their final 15 games) before flipping a switch once the playoffs began.

Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray haven't looked their best yet, and this rotation should start to shrink the closer we get to the playoffs.

This, along with a favorable remaining schedule, should keep the Nuggets around the No. 3 seed in the West.

New Orleans Pelicans

Current Record/Seed: 33-22, 6th in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 12th overall

The heat the Pelicans currently feel is that of the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings and others breathing down their necks.

New Orleans can't afford to have a bad week at the risk of one of these play-in teams moving up to steal its final playoff seed.

For now, a 7-1 record in the Pelicans' last eight games is tied for the best in the NBA, with the team sporting a sixth-ranked defense and net rating (plus-8.6) over this stretch.

When healthy, this is a deep and talented group that can win a playoff series and is currently getting over 60 points and 15 assists per night from Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum.

There's no reason why New Orleans shouldn't stay at No. 6.

West Quarterfinals: (2) LA Clippers vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers

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Los Angeles Clippers

Current Record/Seed: 36-17, 3rd in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 7th overall

If the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers aren't the highest-rated first-round series, then this is the matchup everyone is tuning in to see.

The Clippers have gone 33-15 with James Harden in the lineup this season, continuing their rise up the West. While there's plenty of star power to go around, L.A. also possesses incredible depth and hasn't even needed players like P.J. Tucker and Bones Hyland to this point.

Kawhi Leonard and company will have plenty of chances to prove they should be the No. 1 seed in the West, as there are still four games remaining on the schedule against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City and Denver Nuggets. The Clippers get the Phoenix Suns two more times as well.

This isn't an easy schedule moving forward, but this well-oiled machine should continue its ascent to No. 2 in the West.

Los Angeles Lakers

Current Record/Seed: 30-26, 9th in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 10th overall

The Lakers aren't going to make up enough ground to climb out of the play-in tournament (currently 3.5 games behind the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 6 seed), but this is a team no one will want to face in a one-game elimination.

Los Angeles wasn't built to grind out regular-season victories. LeBron James isn't going to give 100 percent effort from November through March.

Instead, the Lakers will take a similar path as last year, playing just well enough to stay in the play-in tournament before getting a monster game from James and Anthony Davis to eventually grab the No. 7 seed.

Not even the addition of Spencer Dinwiddie will get the Lakers out of the play-in, and that's OK. A Lakers-Clippers first-round series would be must-watch television.

West Quarterfinals: (1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Sacramento Kings

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Oklahoma City Thunder

Current Record/Seed: 37-17, 2nd in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 24th overall

Why the Thunder for the No. 1 seed in the West? There's a number of reasons.

OKC has the easiest remaining schedule of any of the top teams in the conference, with no remaining games against the Minnesota Timberwolves or Denver Nuggets and just a single meeting with the Clippers. Four contests still stand against the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies, though.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be highly motivated as he pushes for MVP honors, and the Thunder picked up Gordon Hayward via trade and Bismack Biyombo as a free agent. Both veterans will help elevate a young core.

While other older contenders like the Clippers and Nuggets may begin to start dialing back minutes for their stars in preparation for a playoff run, OKC's youthful core won't require the same rest.

Sacramento Kings

Current Record/Seed: 31-23, 8th in West

Remaining SOS Rank: 8th overall

While the Kings aren't going to finish near their 48 wins and three seed from a year ago, this core is too talented to miss the playoffs altogether, either.

De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis should be fueled by their All-Star snubs, and Malik Monk will be looking to lock down a Sixth Man of the Year trophy.

Kevin Huerter has been much better over the last month (13.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 43.7 percent from three), and Keegan Murray continues his climb toward star status.

A rise out of the play-in tournament isn't in the cards, but the playoff experience this team picked up from its series against the Golden State Warriors should be enough to get the Kings an eighth seed and final spot in the West playoffs.

   

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